Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Defining My Beer Palate

Now that I've rated and reviewed over 200 beers (not 1500 like some people) I thought it would be interesting to glean some trends.

Here are the Top 20 beers I've ever had, broken down by rating, but not in order otherwise. 

5 Stars


4.75 Stars

4.5 Stars











Here's the breakdown of these 20 beers by style:

Double IPA - 8
IPA - 6
Triple IPA - 2
Sour - 2
Pale Ale - 1
Golden Ale - 1

So this is actually pretty eye-opening. First of all, 18 of my top 20 is either some form of IPA or Sour. The only Pale Ale in my top 20 is a citrus-heavy one from Lagunitas. Despite Sierra Nevada being my gateway beer, turns out I don't actually enjoy Pale Ales. Also the Summer Love Golden Ale from Victory Brewing seems to be a one-off that was biased by the hot dog and chips and sunshine. 

Let's go deeper. 

I've tried 17 Double IPAs and 8 of them made my top 20. 
I've tried 53 IPAs and 6 made my top 20. 
I've tried 2 Triples both made my top 20. 
I've tried 3 Sours and 2 made my top 20. 

Sorted by efficiency that's:

Triple IPA: 100%
Sour: 66%
Double IPA: 47%
IPA: 11%

Then you go back and look at my very top ratings...

A Double and Sour got my only perfect scores, closely followed by a Double and a Triple. 

It becomes clear that (single) IPAs are not in my top three styles, and yet that's what I've tried the most.

So now I know. Go for a Double, Triple or Sour. I haven't tried enough Triples or Sours to really declare a precise ranking of those three styles. 

Thursday, July 26, 2018

An Understanding of Living Fully

The biggest, most important question on Earth is and always will be: What is the meaning of life? On a global scale, this is unanswerable. But on a personal scale, it might not be.

The question then becomes: What is the meaning of my life?

It's something that I've thought about and struggled with since gaining adult rationality. How do I get the most out of life? Series of late night conversations, desperately emailing friends for guidance, introspectively exploring and questioning how I spend my days in search of meaning—wondering if I'm on the right path or if I've been overlooking something simple.

Two years ago I explored this topic in depth in a post titled "An Investigation Into Living Fully," attempting to define and clarify the issue but failing to come up with any sort of epiphany or resolution.

Today,  I'm excited to claim, with great reverence and a sense of humility for my position in the universe, that I seem to have found an answer.

• • •

Picking up where my previous post left off, I had concluded that to this point living fully had always meant making stuff. But this felt somewhat unsatisfying. And the reason lies in what my previous understanding of my purpose was—to leave the world a more interesting place than I found it.

That purpose sounds nice and still makes sense to me. However, it is inherently defined by me affecting the world. I minimized the scale of this task by concluding that by creating anything interesting, even a blog post, that I have made the world more interesting. The problem with this—and the reason why it's unsatisfying—is that you end up judging your creation by the impact it has. So when I write books that no one reads it feels like a waste of time. Then you inevitably end up comparing yourself to the successful published authors you enjoy and feel like a failure.

And then Brittany recommended I read a book that changed how I view art, creativity and myself. The book is Big Magic: Creative Living Beyond Fear by Elizabeth Gilbert.

It's hard to describe the feeling of wrestling with these questions, soul-seeking for literally 20 years, to one day start a book that feels like it was written just for you. One that is ready to present the answers that you've been looking for.

• • •

A personal digression: I entered college in 2001 not knowing what major or career I should select. I was content to explore and wasn't in a rush to figure it out. I knew I had a passion for creative writing and I took creative writing classes on Poetry and Short Stories. They were incredible, by the way, and I wish I could have taken them every semester and then some. I remember sitting in my dorm, Allen Hall, in front of a word document. I was debating between pursuing a career in creative writing (fiction author) or a career in psychology, the other classes I enjoyed the most. At one point in 2002, I came to the conclusion that I could always write in my free time as a Psych major, but that I couldn't have a professional career in psychology with a creative writing major. I was on track to become a Psychology major. This despite the fact, that I didn't want to go to grad school, become a Psychologist or know any other way to use that degree.

Once again, Brittany stepped into my life and in the summer of 2002 mailed me a packet of printed out job descriptions from the government's official Occupational Outlook Handbook. She could have emailed them—it would have been easier—but instead she printed them out and highlighted the jobs she thought would interest me. There were several related to psychology but also creative writing. In that stack, I read for the first time about creative advertising writing (copywriting.) That summer I decided that was the career for me. There was not a lot of back and forth hand-wringing. It felt obvious. I was already enrolled in specific classes for the fall 2002 semester, so I went online and dropped anything that didn't fulfill requirements for an Advertising major and enrolled in two or three advertising classes.

All of this is to say, for 20 years I've been thinking about what to do with my life and if it should be a life of the arts or something else entirely. And now I feel like I've figured something out.

• • •

Claiming to have figured it out myself is a rather large claim, since it's basically in the first 50 pages of Big Magic. And also, in fact, in the subtitle.

• • •

Once I read it, it clicked. Because in many ways it's how I've been living and yet I often felt like a failure because I hadn't had a book sell well, or a tweet go viral, or a video attract an audience. But instead of judging myself based upon my effect on the world, what if I defined my purpose differently? What if it was this:

To live a creative life. A curious, amplified life. To express myself creatively—as often and deeply as possible. To pursue new experiences. Instead of affecting the world, what if I strive to extract everything interesting and curious from this world. To invite the universe to leave its mark upon me through my creative expression. That in fact, the sum of my creative outlets is what awakens my soul, brings light to my life, and makes me vividly alive.

• • •

I suppose to some it might not seem like an epiphany—not that much different than what I had previously written about. But there's an important shift. Previously, I was too concerned with finding success. Even my most recent book, I picked it in part because I thought it was a commercially viable idea. So when it didn't move copies I ended up questioning why I spent a year writing it. But now I don't. Now I've shifted the goalposts. I can view it on its own creative merits and I see it as a success. I'm proud of it. I'm glad I wrote it. It is one piece of my journey to live a creative life, not a mundane life.

Even a week ago, I questioned why I was motivated to create these things when it doesn't pay off in the literal sense. Despite being drawn to create these things, it's easy to paint them as a waste of time and energy. But now I see that the creation itself was the point. Something inside me draws me to create and I should listen to that voice. Maybe in fact, that's the best definition of the soul that I've ever heard. (Man, epiphanies flying around here left and right!) Your soul might want you to travel, or teach people, or volunteer, or play music, or study history, or learn five languages. If my soul wants me to create, I should create. I should not fret and worry about if other people will like it or buy it or leave good reviews. I can't control that anyways. I can only control my creative discipline.

I no longer have to compare myself to published authors and feel inferior nor feel the need to compare myself to any peers that are seemingly not living a life based around the arts. I need only stay focused on my mission and remind myself that I am capable of great things. I want to push myself to produce my best creations and not define myself by others. For comparison is the thief of joy.

• • •

I've used the phrase "create things" so much that I think it warrants defining it further. (Also, it makes my soul feel good to see a current list of everything in one place, so here we go.)

To this point in my life, I've created:
  • three books (one choose your own adventure, one novel and one personal essay collection)
  • four short films (should be five...one day)
  • three blogs: (one personal, one family, and one dedicated to writerly pieces)
  • a tabletop game
  • a cookbook
  • a youtube series
  • a podcast
  • two albums in a high school band
  • a twitter account where I pretend to be a comedian
  • a restaurant concept with full menu
  • two web riddles
  • a side business designing book covers

That's a fair list of creative expressions. But I've also completed some challenges and activities that for me fall under the category of creative living:
  • fasted for 48 hours
  • stopped talking for a day
  • went without sleep for 32 hours
  • ate only cereal for a week
  • went vegetarian for a month
  • a two-hour solo walk at midnight
  • went hang gliding in Rio
  • visited ten escape rooms
Most of these occurred not only in college, but in the first two years of college. Apparently, I arrived on campus ready to try anything. Seems like a good attitude to have—something I should challenge myself to find again.

• • •

A cynical, but fair critique of this new found purpose might be that it sounds like giving up. That I haven't found commercial success so I'm moving the goalposts out of weakness. This is not me inventing an imaginary strawman—this is the voice of the critic within myself, my own fear. The part inside me that tells not to try things because I might fail. The part that says "Why bother writing something if no one will read it?"

But today I see this as a sign of strength. I'm freeing myself so that I can focus on being creative for my own sake and writing the things that I want to write and make the things that I want to make and not be concerned at all with what will sell or what other people might like. My soul urges me to create the best work that I can. Not to become famous or rich. Not to create something that has the necessary elements to succeed on a national level. For example, years ago on a walk with Brittany we talked about what the massive hits Harry Potter and Twilight have in common. It's not super complicated. Adolescents with super powers and a love story. I haven't read or watched either one and even I know that. So I created an outline for a book (that has the potential for a series, that has the potential for a movie franchise). It has the elements to be successful. But I've never written it because I've never wanted to. The story doesn't speak to me. Whenever I release something that doesn't sell I think back to that idea. The reality is that there is no guarantee that this idea would be commercially successful at all. And if I'm going to spend my time and energy on something that will only sell 10 copies, I want it to be worth it for me. I have to invest in the projects that I'll be satisfied with those results.

To find our soul's purpose, we should ask ourselves exactly that: What would you do even if you knew it was very likely to fail? (Here I'm using fail in the conventional, financial sense even though that's not how I view things.) What would be worth doing if you knew there was no pay off outside of yourself?

Would you go to med school if you know you could not become a doctor?
Would you paint a painting if you knew no one would see it?
Would you write a book if you knew no one would read it?

If you find yourself saying yes to this kind of question, that's probably because it's your soul's purpose. That this venture would make you feel the most alive—so success and failure cease to be relevant.

In fact, as Gilbert points out, failure has a purpose. It asks the question of you: Are you ready to continue making things? It is easy to create when everything goes well. If everyone knew they were guaranteed financial success, millions would start writing screenplays and painting and sculpting. It is hard to create when financial success seems impossible. When you still want to create after experiencing that, that's when you know it's the voice of your soul and not just a desire for fame or money.

• • •

Another critique might be this: If my purpose is about doing things solely for me, why even write this post? Why not just keep it to myself?

Well for one, I never know what I think about something until I write it down. Often, I write to clarify the jumble of tangled thoughts in my head. By writing publicly I force myself to record this as elegantly as possible.

And also, just because it's on the internet doesn't mean that it's not for me. Beyond a few close friends who I think might enjoy this sort of thing, it doesn't matter if strangers read this. It only matters that I read this and refer back to it as often as I need to to stay focused and feed my soul.

• • •

Sometimes even I've wondered why on a Friday night, I'm at home tabulating election results under imaginary circumstances or proposing solutions to NFL problems that no one will read. Now I have the answer. I have a curious soul. And scratching that itch gives me a sense of peace.

• • •

Now that I've identified my purpose and answered the critic within, I'd like to add some notes from Big Magic that I found helpful, so I can refer back and be inspired again one day.
  • According to Gilbert, the Romans believed that you had a genius, not that you were a genius. That a genius was a source of inspiration that guided you on your journey. I don't even care if this is true. I like it and will be using it. 
  • The creative process is a road trip with three passengers. Myself, creativity and fear are all along for the ride. Fear will ride with us, but does not get to vote where we go and certainly does not get to drive. I am behind the wheel and creativity is riding shotgun. We will be making the decisions, focused on the road ahead. 
  • The goal does not have to be that your art financially take care of you. A better goal would be to financially take care of yourself so that you can always create your art. 

• • •

There is a danger in declaring that you have figured out the meaning of your life because life itself is fragile. Things can change in an instant and one day I might read this and think it's a bunch of garbage. I hope that day doesn't come and I don't think it will, but I must remain open to the possibility. The future is fluid and new epiphanies may enter at any moment. I have titled this an understanding—singular—leaving room for further growth and wisdom.

• • •

As it turns out, I feel like I've done a pretty job living in harmony with this purpose to this point. (So that's a bonus.) I have created the things that I've wanted to create. And from time to time, I have lived curiously and creatively. This is a purpose without an endpoint. I will never cross this off the list. It will be my guide, through the inevitable periods of feeling lost, weak and afraid. And hopefully lead to further creative expressions and a sense that I have vividly lived.

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Names

Sometimes you need a name for a create-a-player or a character. Here are some of my favorites:

Nick Beam
Max Power
Lincoln Hawk
Toots McGregor
Cotton Jamiroquai
Ralphie "Bang-Bang" Johnson
Beef Stewart
Jimbob Ghostkeeper
Chardonnay Beaver
Bernard Bumpus
Tillman Buttersnatch
Gene Testimony
Johnny Madrid
Teddy Cincinnati
Dr. Al Pastor

Monday, July 23, 2018

Why I'm in this Mess

It's no secret that I derive great pleasure from food. This very site is named after a sandwich, for example. But as I'm on day 32 of eating healthy to lose weight (for the 100th time) and I'm thinking about how much focus and planning and willpower it takes to lose weight, I'm reflecting upon how I got here in the first place.

Because when I'm not eating to lose weight, I invariably, inevitably gain weight. I don't have a sense of how to eat to maintain. If I'm not focused on losing, I just eat for pleasure. Here are some examples, with calories in parentheses.

On a work day I would start with a clif bar (250), then be starving by lunch and have the Raising Cane's Box, sub coleslaw for toast, extra sauce (1700), but then be super hungry by dinner again. Perhaps Jimmy Johns for a #9 (950), chips (300) and cookie (400). That might be enough, or I might mindlessly eat goldfish or cereal later at night(200).

That's a 3800 calorie day without even trying to go crazy.

Maybe on a Saturday, I might wake up and have a protein bar (210) and then go to Chick-fil-A for lunch. #1 with fries and two sauces (1100).  Might even go to a movie and get cookie dough bites (400). Then could get a Dominos pizza. A medium slice of pepperoni and sausage is 250, but I'll probably have 6. (1500)

That's a 3200 calorie day that sounded even worse.

These examples have a lot of eating out, but unless I'm trying to, I eat just as poorly at home. I can buy cookies, go through most of a bag of tortilla chips in a day, grab handfuls of m&ms at work, or when I'm trying to focus on work late at night, pick up some candy bars & chips.

The idea that I average 3500 calories a day when "eating normally" is both totally realistic and totally insane.

At the moment I'm sticking to 1800 calories a day, and some days it's not very hard, and some days it just feels like I need one more clif bar or breakfast burrito at the end of the day, like if I had room for 250 more calories I'd feel satisfied. Which makes sense. I should be eating 2000-2200 calories a day probably. But I don't. For 12 years I've told myself that one day I will get to my goal weight and start eating a 2000 calorie maintenance diet. That day has never come.

I now accept that I'm either doomed to repeat this cycle of gaining and losing weight for my entire life, or I will have to grow up and "stay focused on eating healthy" for my entire life. It was actually eye-opening and inspiring to hear that Niraj tries to eat healthy meals 2/3 of the time, specifically lots of salads for lunch. These are not the meals that get shared or talked about. (Akin to the problems with Facebook and Instagram, where people only see other people at concerts, sports, vacation and think that everyone else is having so much fun.) The reality is if you can have the bacon cheeseburger once a week if you eat healthy the rest of the time.

Basically, I need to stick to entering my food in the app, hitting a daily calorie goal, and weighing myself once a week in order to not gain all the weight back. There is no letting up once I reach my goal weight.

Thursday, July 19, 2018

Long Bet: Self-Driving by 2030

On October 3, 2017, Niraj and I had a discussion about self-driving cars in the year 2030. We didn't exactly define the parameters but I think the crux of it is this:

In the year 2030, will the majority of car (passenger) travel be done by human drivers as it is today or by autonomous cars?

I say human drivers. Niraj says autonomous. 

Niraj's Point of View:
Accident rates speak for themselves
Self-driving is happening in several states already
The money savings will drive the change
12 years is a long time for technological changes

My Point of View:
Americans are stubborn and stupid
Lawmakers are wary of taking away freedoms
People have an incentive to own and drive their own car
We make emotional, unwise decisions all the time



We both agree that on a long-term scale that autonomous vehicles are the future. The question is will the majority tipping point arrive by 2030? I honestly don't feel super confident one way or another, but think it's interesting and wanted to write it down. 

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

My First Computer

My family switched from a family that did not own a computer to one that did in the summer of 1996. Our first computer was a Gateway 2000 P5-133. I believe we ordered a refurbished one and it still was probably around $1700. Of course, that includes a giant CRT monitor and the separate speakers. The tower looked like this:


The 133 stood for a 133 MHz processor. The hard drive was 1.6 GB. 

(For reference, the work computer I'm using to type this is from 2011 and it has a 2.4 GHz processor and a 750 GB hard drive.)

Here's a press release announcing it in 1995:

We got it right before my 8th grade year. I was 12, about to turn 13. So in 1996, I had the internet. I connected to it via America Online. We had a 28.8k modem. Most of the time on the computer you were not connected to the internet. When you wanted to connect, it sounded like this:



We had a limited plan. Something like 10 hours a month. It didn't always connect. Sometimes you would hear the dialing, the high pitches, the ba na ba na, the static and that would be it. No internet.

Specifically at our house, the computer was in the guest bedroom. We discovered that leaving the modem plugged into the wall at all times killed our phone signal even when we weren't connected online. So when I wanted to connect, I stretched over the guest bed, inserted the wire into the jack, then dived back to the computer to try and connect before the signal was lost. Pictures would take a few minutes to load. I remember trying to go to mtv.com in high school and it just failed. I used Napster in 2000 and I remember looking for the smallest bitrate (worst quality) because it meant that a song could download in 2 or 3 hours instead of 4 or 6.

The computer operated using Windows 95. It came with games. I played a lot of Microsoft Golf 2.0.



I also learned how to find the audio wav files and, using Sound Recorder, learned how to edit sound clips together.

There was Hover! (sic)




There was Encarta MindMaze.



And then there was this other program. I couldn't really remember it. It seemed like sort of a clubhouse. But also maybe a welcome screen? I remembered there were animals. Earlier today I googled a bunch of things and couldn't find anyone talking about it. I gave up.

And then an hour later I googled Gateway 2000 clippy.

And there it was.

Microsoft Bob.





And it didn't have Microsoft Word. I remember writing school papers–as well as X-Files fan fiction–in Microsoft Publisher.




Obviously, that computer was primitive and by today's standards it's pretty laughable in all regards. And yet, I learned so many skills. By being limited, it forced me to be creative. It got me through 5 years of school (8th grade + high school) and in many ways influenced who I am today. 

Friday, July 13, 2018

The Future of Sports

This week I listened to Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman debate the relevancy of soccer and baseball and whether or not "baseball is in trouble." It's an interesting subject but they didn't really get to the heart of the matter. Which is this: for my entire life there have three major pro sports: football, baseball and basketball. There are other sports, but there has been a clear demarkation between the major sports and the less popular sports.

The question seems to be, in 50 years (or even 100 years) will baseball be one of the major sports? What will the sports landscape look like in the future?

In order to make predictions about the future of sports I think I need to look back at what sports leagues have been popular and try to gleam why.

• • •

100 years ago, the three most popular sports were boxing, horse racing and baseball. It's hard to find definitive numbers but it's clear those were the big three in some order in the early 1900s. 

The reason that horse racing and boxing were popular is gambling. And also, lack of other options. But gambling. From the 1910s to 1960s, baseball remained popular, but horse racing and boxing dipped. Other forms of gambling came around. Horse racing and boxing weren't suited for TV. Also, I think a structure to the season, the regularity, helps something take hold. Plus, as we see what takes their place (football and basketball) it becomes obvious that team sports and athleticism is more interesting to the public than animals or fighting. 




As the chart shows since the 1960s, football has reigned as the most popular sport. Super Bowls are the most watched events in America and even regular season NFL games outdraw World Series games.

Even in recent history, as Klosterman and Simmons noted, the most famous athletes are basketball stars. So why has football been the most popular?

I think it's the physicality and the rarity. There are other reasons. The team fandom is stronger than other sports. And parity helps keeps giving fans hope. Plus, fantasy football has welcomed a new generation.

But the things that make football totally unique are the unbridled physicality—no other sport allows let alone encourages you to crash into another player as hard as you can. And because there are only 16 games, each one feels monumentally important.

Consider the fall of baseball. Not only is each moment generally pretty boring, but the games don't matter. The best teams lose 50 a year.

• • •

Today, it's still football, basketball and baseball. But football and baseball have unique problems. Let's start with football. Despite reports that the kneeling protests were hurting the sport, here's a quick breakdown of the NFL ratings in 2017:


So people are watching less traditional TV (as streaming options expand) but when they do, NFL is still king. In fact, when you look at the top 100 broadcasts in 2017, 44 were NFL games, including all the top 5.

So why are people skeptical of the NFL's future? It's not the flag. It's the effects of the physical nature of the game. It's CTE. Every year there are more suicides. It's concussions. It's players being paralyzed on the field.

Many people, myself included, love the NFL. But how many players have to kill themselves or be paralyzed before a majority of fans stop supporting the game? What happens when someone dies on the field? The league is trying to make the game safer, but hitting is the game. It's why people love it. And millions of people aren't going to tune into flag football.

Youth football is already on it's way out. In 50 years how many parents will let their kids play football before they turn 18?

Baseball has nearly the opposite problem. It's too boring. It's not designed for short attention spans. It's on all the time with no significance. The ball is hardly in play. Once again though, the flaws are inherent to the game. I mean, you could change the schedule to 20 games a year, but they won't.

• • •

So what will people be watching in 50 or 100 years? Quickly I'll recap the second section above with a rough timeline of what made a sport successful from 100 years ago to present:

  • Gambling
  • Lack of other options
  • Team sports
  • Athleticism
  • Physicality
  • Not boring
  • Rarity

That list will be helpful but I also think it's important to be forward-thinking and try to extrapolate features of a sport that might be beneficial over the next 100 years:

  • Accessible for short attention spans
  • Global popularity
  • Parents want their kids to play it


I think the 1st and 3rd items on that list are self-explanatory. Global popularity was brought up by Klosterman and I think it's a plausible appeal in the 21st century—that technology has made the world connected and a sport that is played around the world could benefit from that.

It's hard for us to imagine that anything could be radically different in 50 years, despite this absolutely being the story of the 20th century. But I think we all can wrap our heads around the idea that in 100 years things might be unrecognizable. So I'm going to work on that scale.

In 100 years, I don't think the NFL exists the way it does today. I think because players only get bigger, faster and stronger, and the science around CTE will only get more conclusive, a full contact sport like football doesn't have long-term viability.

I expect baseball to live on the tertiary of the sports world, like tennis or golf does now. People might care about the World Series, but I expect the regular season audiences to dwindle, resulting in a reduction of season length.

So what takes its place?

Basketball seems to be the front runner. It's a team sport with athleticism and some physicality. It's not as boring as baseball. The highlights are accessible for short attention spans, parents have no problem with their kids playing it, and it's popular around the world. Plus, it's already #2 and has unlimited star potential.

Soccer would seem positioned for success. A team sport with athleticism and some physicality. It has moments of excitement and mounting pressure. Only two hours for a streamlined experience. Great highlights. Parents want their kids to play and it's the world's most popular game. The biggest hindrance is the MLS is weak and the ratings pale compared to leagues around the world. But as technology advances, there's really not much difference between watching Champions League soccer and a baseball game in your city. And over 100 years, the MLS could (in theory) become the best league, simply by paying the most and getting the best players.

I also think hockey is a dark horse here. Team sport. Athletic. Not boring. Great in person. The action never stops, perfect for attention spans. The secret sauce here is that if football goes away or becomes flag football, hockey could be the most physical sport. I could definitely see the Eagles, Bears, Patriots and Steelers fans (just to name a few) that switch to hockey once the NFL is no longer what it is now. The counterargument is that CTE is possibly just as prevalent in hockey, but football is getting all the headlines.

Lacrosse or rugby are potential niche sports that could grow to become #3 in 100 years. Rugby (if safer) would seem the perfect football replacement, but that if safer is probably a "no." Less concussions but CTE all the same is my guess.

tl;dr In 100 years, I'd bet on Soccer and Basketball being the two most popular sports in America.

Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Croatia's Path to their First World Cup Final

Heading into the final matches in Group G, there was a lot of discussion around the Belgium-England match and the incentive to lose. The bracket was already mostly set, and the powerhouse teams were in the top half. Specifically the winner of Belgium-England would likely face Brazil in the quarterfinals while Sweden awaited the loser. Belgium would defeat England 1-0 to win the group and go on to face Brazil. England would face Sweden. But perhaps, the biggest winner in the whole situation was neither Belgium for winning the group nor England for dodging Brazil, but instead...Croatia.

Croatia's first knockout game was vs Denmark, the second place finisher of Group C. Denmark took the early lead but Croatia equalized and advanced on penalties.

You'd have expected their next game to be against Spain, but instead faced Russia, the second place finisher of Group A. Russia was outclassed by Spain but was given a penalty via handball that was definitively not intentional (though he shouldn't have had his hand up). Russia again had a first-half lead but Croatia equalized and advanced on penalties.

And that brings us to today. Before the Cup, everyone expected Germany to win Group F. Instead it was Sweden after the Germans flamed out in the group stage. The other Group winner on this side, Group H, was Columbia. Their star, Rodriguez was injured and couldn't play against England. So England advanced against a depleted Columbia and avoided Germany. Croatia didn't have to play Belgium or Germany or Columbia, they faced England, the second place finisher of Group G.

Yep, three knockout games all against teams that finished second in their group. (Meanwhile, France defeated two group winners in Uruguay and Belgium plus Argentina.)

Could Croatia had beaten Spain in the quarterfinals or Belgium/Germany in the semifinals? It would have been tougher, that's for sure.

But it is worth recognizing how Croatia earned the spot on this side of the bracket. They won their group. They beat Argentina 3-0 on June 21. Flip that result and Croatia would have faced France in the round of 16.

Belgium and Croatia were the only two teams to secure 9 points in the group stage. So Croatia is the only team that's won all 6 games they've played.

Sunday, July 08, 2018

Measuring The Best QB Over The Last 5 Seasons

I heard a stat during the World Cup about an oncoming substitute. "He's scored the most goals in the league over the last three years." That initially sounded very impressive. But then I started thinking about it. I hypothesized that by adjusting the length of time and cherry-picking a stat, you can find a claim to match almost anyone. I figured with 5 different QB stats and 5 lengths of time, I could probably find different leaders for 16 quarterbacks. Let's see. (To qualify, I'm using Pro Football Reference's minimum of 14 attempts per game.)

Completion %
Last year: Brees
Last 2 years: Bradford
Last 3 years: Brees
Last 4 years: Brees
Last 5 years: Brees

Passing Yards
Last year: Brady
Last 2 years: Brees
Last 3 years: Brees
Last 4 years: Brees
Last 5 years: Brees

Passing Yards/Attempt
Last year: Brees
Last 2 years: Ryan
Last 3 years: Ryan
Last 4 years: Ryan
Last 5 years: P. Manning

Passing TDs
Last year: Wilson
Last 2 years: Rivers
Last 3 years: Brady
Last 4 years: Brady
Last 5 years: Brees

Passer Rating
Last year: Smith
Last 2 years: Brady
Last 3 years: Brady
Last 4 years: Brady
Last 5 years: Rodgers

Brees, Brady, Ryan, Rodgers, Smith, Wilson, Rivers, Manning and Bradford. That's 9 QBs that have some claim of being the best in a certain category over a specific time frame. Still, not as many as I would have guessed. (It's obviously easier to find a QB that leads a category in a single random season, but that's not something that sounds relevant in a 2018 broadcast. Ex: If a broadcaster said "Matt Ryan leads the league in Yards/Attempt over the last 4 seasons" that sounds a lot more impressive than "Romo led the league in Yards/Attempt in 2014."

It's ultimately a testament to the dominance of Brees and Brady. New hypothesis: if I looked at the time frame before Brady/Brees that there would be a wider array of QBs. I'm going to start my new search to include the 2002 season.

Completion %
2002: Pennington
2001-2002: Warner
2000-2002: Warner
1999-2002: Warner
1998-2002: Warner

Passing Yards
2002: Gannon
2001-2002: Gannon
2000-2002: P. Manning
1999-2002: P. Manning
1998-2002: P. Manning

Passing Yards/Attempt
2002: Green
2001-2002: Warner
2000-2002: Warner
1999-2002: Warner
1998-2002: Warner

Passing TDs
2002: Brady
2001-2002: Favre
2000-2002: P. Manning
1999-2002: P. Manning
1998-2002: P. Manning

Passer Rating
2002: Pennington
2001-2002: Gannon
2000-2002: Gannon
1999-2002: Warner
1998-2002: Warner


Pennington, Warner, Gannon, Manning, Green, Brady, and Favre. 7 QBs. Very surprising. So basically my entire theory is wrong. It's harder to twist stats than I thought.

Tuesday, July 03, 2018

This would be more fun...

The Warriors are insane. Let's imagine some fun moves that aren't going to happen.

Let's say Durant pisses off Curry and Curry says fine, I'll go play with LeBron.

So you'd have LeBron and Curry on the Lakers with Durant, Klay and Draymond on the Warriors.

The Rockets are interesting already with Harden and Paul and non-stop 3's.

We've got Westbrook and George in OKC, but they need help, how about Anthony Davis comes over? Baby, now we've got a stew going.


In the East, Boston already has Kyrie and Hayward.

All the other stars should go to Milwaukee, Toronto and Philly. If we've got super teams, we might as well have 8 kickass teams.

Cancel the first round of the playoffs and let's just watch that.