Monday, December 16, 2013

Chiefs Clinch Playoffs

Chiefs are the SECOND team in NFL history to score 35+ points in the first half in back-to-back games. The other to do it: 2002 Chiefs No other team in the NFL has scored 35 points in the first half of a game even once this season.

The #Chiefs 56 points today is the most scored in the #NFL this season.

Jamaal Charles is the first RB in NFL history to have 4 receiving touchdowns in a game.

RB Jamaal Charles recorded five touchdowns in Sunday’s game (one rushing, four receiving), becoming the first player in NFL history with at least four touchdown receptions and one touchdown run in a single game.

158.3 Alex Smith at Oakland Dec. 15, 2013
158.3 Trent Green vs. Detroit Dec. 14, 2003

1. 85% Alex Smith at Oakland (20-17) Dec. 15, 2013

Chiefs lead the league in turnover differential at +21. Seattle is 2nd at +16.

Tuesday, December 03, 2013

Avs Lines again

Coming into the season this is what our forwards lines were projected as:

Projected Forwards

Jamie McGinn— Matt Duchene — P.A. Parenteau
Gabe Landeskog — Paul Stastny — Ryan O’Reilly
Alex Tanguay — Nathan MacKinnon — Steve Downie
Patrick Bordeleau — John Mitchell —Mark Olver

Honestly, there have been so many different lineups, it's hard to say there are definitive lines. McLeod served a 5-game suspension, Tanguay has been out a while with an injury, Stastny and Duchene both missed a couple games. But here's my best approximation at our lines when healthy.

Actual Forwards

Ryan O’Reilly— Matt Duchene — P.A. Parenteau

Gabe Landeskog — Paul Stastny — Alex Tanguay
Jamie McGinn — Nathan MacKinnon — Max Talbot
Cody McLeod — John Mitchell —Patrick Bordeleau

Marc-Andre Cliche (13th man)

Brad Malone (14th man)

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As for the defense, I was quite worried about this projection:

Johnson - Wilson
Hejda - Barrie
Sarich - Elliott
Benoit - Hunwick

Turns out we're currently 4th in goals against, though you should credit the goalies more than the defense. Still...

Actual Defense:


The top two lines are pretty set, with the bottom 4 switching around to see who takes the ice.

Chiefs Thoughts at 9-3

First up...with four games to play, the Chiefs are two games ahead of the Lions in the burger bet standings...and are currently ahead in the point differential tiebreaker +84 to +39. So it seems likely the Chiefs will hold on to that.

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Going into Sunday's game, I thought the Chiefs needed two things to win:

1. Win the turnover battle by +2
2. Have more big special teams plays by +1

Well the did #2. And they won the turnover battle by 1.

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Denver is really good. They're a better team than the Chiefs.

Here are my power rankings (based on who I think would win head-to-head matchups)

1. Seattle
2. Denver

3. New England
4. New Orleans
5. Carolina

6. San Fran
7. Cincinnati
8. Kansas City

9. Indianapolis
10. Philly
11. Detroit
12. Arizona

Tier four is inconsistent. They can play great or terrible. New Orleans is very home dependent. Anyways, the Chiefs are a good team.

I think these losses have actually helped the team. The offense has improved. Alex Smith has had to throw the ball and he's done a good job.

The defense hasn't been up to stopping Peyton Manning but no teams have. I think the weaknesses in the defense have been exposed and the coaches will have a month to try and address them as best as possible.

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I did my above power rankings on my own. Here are the power rankings based on Football Outsiders DVOA (based on week 12)

1. Seattle
2. Denver

3. Carolina
4. New Orleans
5. New England

6. San Fran
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago

9. Kansas City
10. Philly
11. Arizona

Pretty similar. Except they love Chicago.

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If the Chiefs and Broncos played 100 times in Mile High in November, I think the Broncos win 85 of them.
If they played 100 times in Arrowhead on Sunday, I think the Broncos win 70 of them.

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On the one hand, the Chiefs built a 21-7 lead and were 10 yards away from tying the game. So there's reason to be confident.

On the other hand, the Chiefs built a 21-7 lead. They got a kickoff return touchdown. And still lost.

The Broncos are not scared of Kansas City. They would rather face the Chiefs than the Patriots in the playoffs. And the Chiefs would rather face the Patriots than the Broncos.

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I didn't want to get into last week, and it doesn't really matter, but Reid bungled the last two minutes of the drive against the Chargers.

Trailing by 3 points, with a 1st and goal from the 5, Reid calls a timeout with 1:28 to go, with about 17-19 seconds on the play clock. The Chargers had two timeouts.

On the next play, the Chiefs pass to the end zone and score. This gave the Chargers 1:19 and two timeouts to come down the field. The Chargers had already scored 24 points in the 2nd half, the Chiefs are missing their top two pass rushers.

I don't care that you got the touchdown. You can't give them that much time.

At least run the extra 18 seconds off. Now there's only a minute remaining.

And on 1st and goal from the 5, I give it to Charles on the ground. If he scores, great. If he doesn't the Chargers either have to burn a timeout or lose clock.

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My biggest gripe with the game is against Reid. It was 21-21 in the third quarter. The Chiefs had a 4th and 2 at the Denver 42. This is a must-go for it.

Later in the game, the Chiefs were down 14, and they had a 4th and 1 from their own 29. They had to go for it. They got it. But what Reid didn't realize is that when you're playing the Broncos, your defense is not as good as you think. This is not a 7-7 game against the Browns. This is a shootout agains the Broncos. We need all the points we can get.

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The Chiefs got to 9-0 by holding teams under 17 points. But the Broncos had their way with the Chiefs. Big play after big play.

Here are the plays by both teams of over 20 yards:

Pass to Moreno, 34 yards
Pass to Decker, 41 yards, TD
Pass to Decker, 42 yards
Pass to Welker, 20 yards
Pass to Decker, 37 yards, TD
Pass to Thomas, 77 yards
Pass to Moreno, 31 yards
Ball run, 28 yards

Pass to Bowe, 24 yards
Davis run, 20 yards
David TD return, 108 yards
Smith run, 26 yards
Pass to McCluster, 28 yards
Pass to Bowe, 23 yards

If you break it down a littler further...offensive plays over 30 yards:

Broncos: 6
Chiefs: 0

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Anyways, it really doesn't change much. Even if the Chiefs had scored with 1:30 left, the Broncos would have come down and won it on a field goal. Even if the Chiefs had won the game, the Broncos would have owned the tiebreaker and won the division most likely.

So here we are at 9-3. The Chiefs will most likely be playing on the road against the loser of this week's Colts-Bengals game. I think the Bengals are a better, more complete team, but I might prefer to face them instead of Andrew Luck. I think the Chiefs might fare better on the outside field in the elements against Cincinnati, than getting beat by the Colts on their fast track. That said, I think all three of these teams are about even, and the game could go either way. The home team should be favorite slightly, but the Chiefs will have a good shot as long as they're healthy.

Sunday, December 01, 2013

7 hours until kickoff. I just made sour cream and onion dip.