Monday, December 31, 2018

The Top Ten of 2018

Just when I thought I was completing another normal, uneventful year...I lost my job in October. Turns out, your life can get turned upside down in a moment. Going through a challenge reminds you of all you have to be thankful for and not take any blessings for granted. Here's to a new year and a more prosperous 2019.

Honorable Mentions

Names

I tried new BBQ places.

I ranked Chiefs seasons.

I stayed up past 3am to watch USA win curling gold.

2016 Proportional Electoral College Results

Scoring in Soccer

Defining My Beer Palate




10. Choose Your Own Trump
I wrote another book and I think it's my best yet.

9. My First Computer
A look back at my introduction to computing 22 years ago.

8. The Bullshit They Feed Us
A response to thoughts and prayers.

7. Dante
I edited my first highlight reel video.

6. Solutions for Eliminating Kickoffs
I always enjoy exploring solutions to sports problems.

5. Niraj Influenza 2018
A long weekend packed with games and food.

4. The Future of Sports
A #longread trying to predict the most popular sports in 50 or 100 years.

3. NFL Preview
I kinda nailed these predictions.

2. Mahomes Magic in Mile High
This year will be remembered for Mahomes breakout season and this was the best post of the bunch.

and the number one realization of 2018.


Sunday, December 30, 2018

The Mahomes Effect

Patrick Mahomes in his first season as a starting quarterback, became the 2nd QB in NFL History to throw 50 touchdowns and 5000 passing yards. Peyton Manning did it once in 2013. Brady, Brees, Marino, Rodgers have never done it. Mahomes is 1 for 1 on the 50/5000 club.

When you have a QB like this, you're not the only one going to make records.

Tyreek Hill set the Chiefs franchise record for yards in a season.

Travis Kelce set the NFL record for TE yards in a season (Kittle would break Kelce's record an hour later.)

And the Chiefs set a franchise record for points scored. It was also #1 in the NFL season. And #3 in history only behind the 2013 Broncos and 2007 Patriots.

At this point, Mahomes is the heavy favorite to win NFL MVP.

All of this is incredible, career-defining stuff. And then you remember it's his first season and you don't know what to say.

- - -

OH YEAH, and for the first time since I went to high school, the Chiefs are the #1 seed in the AFC. They will have one more game in Arrowhead. If they win that, they host the AFC Championship. They've never hosted the AFC Championship. (The last time the Chiefs went to that game was in Buffalo in 1993-94.)

The Chiefs finished 12-4. The Chargers are 12-4 and the Patriots are 11-5 with the tiebreaker over KC. Which means that for the Chiefs to take the #1 seed, ALL of these things needed to happen:

The Miami Miracle lateral win over the Pats
The Patriots losing to the Lions, Jaguars, Steelers and Titans (all 5 losses to non-playoff teams)
The Ravens beating the Chargers in week 16
The Broncos last second win over the Chargers in week 11
And 12 Wins by the Chiefs, including the 4th and 9 comeback over the Ravens, the opening win over the Chargers, the Mile High MNF left-handed pass win, and crushing the Raiders today.

That's crazy. The Chiefs needed ALL of that to happen. And all of it did.

So now the Chiefs won't play any road games. They will only have to play one of Texans/Patriots.

The Chargers and Bears also finished 12-4 and are playing wild-card weekend.

They have two weeks to study, get Eric Berry, Kendall Fuller (and maybe Sammy Watkins) healthy. We know anything can happen and the Chiefs carry a history of playoff failures. But then again, hopefully they learned something from the late-game collapse vs the Chargers.

And it's kind of nice to have to be wondering if the MVP can win the Super Bowl instead of wondering if good Alex Smith can show up in January.

Monday, December 17, 2018

Chiefs-Chargers: Point/Counterpoint

Point: The Chiefs really screwed up their season by choking away the Chargers game. 

Classic Chiefs. A few years ago, they collapsed in the playoffs vs the Colts. Last year they collapsed in playoffs vs the Titans. This time they collapsed with the #1 seed within their grasp. They now have the same record as the Chargers and if they shit the bed against the Raiders, the Chargers will own the tiebreaker. They could have clinched the #1 seed in week 15 and now can't even do that in week 16. If they Chargers win the division, the Chiefs drop to the #5 seed and will have to play every playoff game on the road and don't get a bye. They were one play away from resting up. This kills their playoff hopes.

Counterpoint: The Chiefs season is going to be just fine. 

Comebacks happen. The previous week the Chiefs came back vs the Ravens. The Patriots gave up a last second miracle lateral play to the Dolphins. The Bears choked away the week 1 game vs the Packers and still won their division. These things happen. The Chiefs are still in a good position. Normally at this time of year, the Chiefs have to win out and hope for other teams to lose to try to get in or get a bye. This time if they win both they secure home field. If the Chargers lose to the Ravens, the Seahawks game doesn't matter. If they lose to the Broncos, the Raiders game doesn't matter.

Normally, when the Chiefs have a huge collapse, it's in the playoffs and they have to think about it all offseason. Now they have a chance to go out and redeem themselves. They had tough losses to the Patriots and Rams but were able to come back the following week and win. If the Chiefs were bound to have a choke, better to get out of the way in the regular season, not the playoffs.

Besides, it's probably better to play through week 16 and week 17 competitively, and earn a bye, than to rest starters in the regular season anyways. Eric Berry has two more weeks of regular season to shake the rust off before we really need the defense to be at a top level.

Point: This shows the Chiefs can't win the big games. 

They lost to the Patriots, Rams and Chargers. Against good teams in close games, the Chiefs don't have what it takes.

Counterpoint: Not so fast. 

They beat the Chargers and Steelers and Broncos, all on the road. They broke the Jaguars. They broke the Bengals. Hell, they even seem to have broken Goff and the Rams. They've won close games, comebacks and blowouts. Every team has bad losses.

Point: This one stings though, right?

To be so close and to choke it away to a division rival?

Counterpoint: Sure. 

It stings. It may prove fatal. But first of all, they're not even a rival. Second, The Chiefs are 9-1 vs the Chargers in their last 10 games. The Chargers are printing up shirts just for beating the Chiefs in the regular season. We're okay. Plus, no regular season game will ever hurt more than week 2 of 2015. That's when the Chiefs were beating the Broncos by 7, gave up a last minute touchdown and then Charles fumbled away the game in regulation, when I was living in Denver and the Broncos would go on to win the Super Bowl, in part because that win earned them the #1 seed. If the Chargers steal the #1 seed and go on to win the Super Bowl, that will sting but I'm not living in LA, so it still won't be as bad as 2015.

Thursday, December 13, 2018

Uncharted Territory

I've opened a lot of blog posts to write about the Chiefs. I've never been here.

For starters, the Chiefs are the favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the AFC.
With 3 games to go, they are in a fantastic position to get the #1 seed.
And just for good measure, Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP.

Here's something I've never even had to think about before...was is the best regular season in Chiefs franchise history?

1966. They went 11-2-1 in 14 games for a winning percentage of .821 and went to Super Bowl I.

The best they've done in a 16 game schedule is 13-3 (.813). But 14-2 (.875) is in play. That's right. Mahomes first year as the starter in KC and all of this in play.

- - -

The Chiefs only chance of getting the #1 seed this century was 2003. Both the Chiefs and Pats were 11-2 with 3 games to play.

This year, well it could get really complicated if they lose tonight and really simple if they win, but they're not losing, so let's just skip this part for now and say they're in good shape.

- - -

How did we get here? A whole season just like the Ravens game. That was the most thrilling win of the season, with the other thrilling games coming in their 2 losses.

It featured among other things, a wicked side-arm in a tight window, a freaking no-look pass and a 4th and 9 heave that of course found it's way into Tyreek Hill's arms. All our lives we watch sports and think that we have a chance even if we're down a touchdown and facing 4th and long. And all our lives we realize that's a bad position to be in. And then one day your team drafts Patrick Mahomes and suddenly there's no such thing as a position where you don't have faith in him.




Which brings us to tonight...

let's see anything going on tonight....

Chiefs are wearing red on red

it's a primetime game at Arrowhead

it's a divisional game with the AFC West on the line

Chiefs are riding a 9-game win streak over the Chargers

the Chiefs are inducting Tony Gonzalez into the Ring of Honor and I'm betting he'll be beating the drum during pre-game introductions

and it's the season debut of Eric Berry

Wednesday, November 28, 2018

AFC Champ QBs

Since 2001 when Tom Brady entered the league, here's a list of AFC Championship appearances by QB:

Brady: 12
Manning: 5
Roethlisberger: 5
Flacco: 3
Sanchez: 2
Stewart: 1
Gannon: 1
McNair: 1
Plummer: 1
Rivers: 1
Luck: 1
Bortles: 1
Trent Green/Matt Cassel/Alex Smith: 0

- - -

A few takeaways:

  • Brady is to date, 12 out of 17 for making the AFC title game. 
  • Brady has more than Manning, Roethlisberger and Rivers combined. 
  • For all the comments about how Rivers is underrated and jokes about Flacco being elite, Flacco has a leg up on him. 
  • The Sanchez, Plummer and Bortles appearances makes the Chiefs absence that much more painful. 
  • Obviously, the team around you shouldn't be overlooked. Roethlisberger has 5 while Rivers only has 1, with their career stats being comparable. 
  • Extrapolating to what I really care about, if Mahomes is on the level of Roethlisberger/Rivers the range of AFC title appearances could be 1-5. If Mahomes is on the level of Brady/Manning, the range could be 5-12. 
  • As for Super Bowl appearances, it's Brady 8, Manning 4, Roethlisberger 3, Gannon 1, Flacco 1. 


EDIT 1/13/19: 
Brady is now 13 out of 18 for making the AFC Championship. That's insane. 
Mahomes is 1 for 1. 

Friday, November 16, 2018

What have you got to lose?

The Chiefs scored a TD on 3 plays vs the Cardinals.
They scored on their first 3 drives vs the Cardinals.

And yet at the end of the 3rd quarter, the Cardinals had the ball down only 14-20. They had a 4th and 1 from their own 29. There's 16 minutes left in a game that you've never had the lead. You're 2-6. You're options are try to pick up one yard to keep a drive alive to try and take the lead or give the ball back to Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Hunt.

The Cardinals punted and never scored again. (I'm glad they did. Just saying.) Now they're 2-7.


The Race for #1

At the start of the year, the Chiefs weren't even the favorite to win their division. Now there's 6 games left before the playoffs and I'm sitting here writing a post about the #1 seed in the AFC.

First, we have to go back. The last time the Chiefs were the #1 seed in the AFC was 1997. They were eliminated by the Broncos who would go on to win the Super Bowl. (The other two teams in the divisional round? Patriots and Steelers.)

The last time the Chiefs played in the AFC Championship? 1993. It's also the only time since we're not counting the AFL Championship in 1970. That team had Joe Montana and Marcus Allen and won two playoff games before losing to Buffalo.

The last time the Chiefs were in this position, with a clear path to the #1 seed was 2003. Through ten games they were 9-1. The Patriots were 8-2. The Chiefs finished 13-3 but the Patriots won out and got the #1 seed. As #2, Chiefs had to face Manning and the Colts while the Patriots hosted McNair and Eddie George on the Titans. (That Chiefs team had Trent Green, Priest Holmes, Dante Hall and Tony G.) That's a long time ago. And yet, in 2018 and in 2003, the Chiefs are battling Tom Brady for home field advantage in the playoffs.

- - -

At this point, lots of things could happen. The Chargers only have one more loss than KC and get to face to the Chiefs one more time. So it's possible the Chiefs could finish 13-3 and be the 5th seed. (Might even be possible to finish 14-2 and be the 5th seed depending on tiebreakers with the Chargers.) But for now, let's assume the Chiefs will win the division.

Based on their schedules, I think the Steelers will drop a couple games and be the #3 seed. In my head, it's a race between the Chiefs and Pats for the top two seeds. The loser gets to face the Steelers in the divisional round. The winner gets one of Chargers/Texans/Bengals/Titans or worse. Plus, the home field in a potential AFC title game.

The Pats losing to the Titans on Sunday was huge. That gives New England two more losses than the Chiefs. Pats have the tiebreaker so the Chiefs margin for error is one game.

That's what makes the MNF game vs the Rams so important. Not because it's a potential Super Bowl matchup. Every game is important. The Chiefs have a one-game cushion. Lose on Monday and it's gone.

Monday, October 22, 2018

6-1.

There are two types of playoff teams. The ones fighting for top seeds and the ones fighting to make it in at all. Brady's Patriots have been the first kind basically every year. The Chiefs are not used to this.

But here we are.

Last night, the Bengals left Arrowhead looking like frauds. They're now 4-3 and no one's confident in them winning their division. Meanwhile the Chiefs are 6-1. And after a brutal schedule, they now get to face 3 losing teams in a row.

13-3 is very much in play.

The Chargers are sticking around and have potential to steal the division away, but this is still a wide open AFC. I mean, a team like the Dolphins doesn't see it as wide open. But for the Chiefs...this offense and special teams are for real. If we can get our Pro Bowl defenders back for the playoffs...

The AFC Championship seems like it will be Patriots vs Chiefs and I'm just hoping it's in Arrowhead. How crazy is this for year 1 of the Mahomes era?

- - -

Last week, I said I love, love this game for the Chiefs. I wasn't scared of the Bengals in the slightest. Feels good to be validated.

Monday, October 15, 2018

This is what Mahomes losing feels like

At halftime, doubt creeped in. The Chiefs had needed a comeback in Denver. Mahomes threw two picks vs the Jaguars. And now Mahomes had thrown two picks in the first half in New England. Maybe teams had figured him out. Maybe Belichick is just on another level and the Chiefs just can't compete with them.

And then the Chiefs scored 31 points in the second half. Including a 67 yard pass to Hunt and a 75 yard pass to Hill. 

If the Chiefs had gotten blown out 41 to 9, I'd feel a lot differently. Instead, I think this is the game that defines the season. And I'm excited. 

- - -

Here's the playoff standings after 6 games:


Last night showed that the Chiefs are for real. They are not a 5-0 fraud. They're going to be competing for the playoff bye and hopefully home field advantage. And they made it through an insanely tough schedule with the best record in the AFC. Yes, the Patriots now hold the tiebreaker. So the Chiefs have to stay 1 game better if they want to avoid going to Foxborough in January. In other words, to get the #1 seed the Chiefs have to match the Patriots over the next 10 weeks. Just like they matched them to a 40-40 game with 3 minutes left. 

This I think should give the Chiefs a purpose and direction. (While I would have loved the 6-0 vs 3-3 outcome, that would have perhaps given a sense of complacency. That is not the case now.) The Chiefs should be encouraged and motivated. Every game counts. 

Chiefs Remaining Schedule
Games vs teams with winning records: 4
Games vs teams with losing records: 5
Games vs teams with tied record: 1

Patriots Remaining Schedule
Games vs teams with winning records: 4
Games vs teams with losing records: 2
Games vs teams with tied records: 4

- - -

Assuming there is a rematch with the Patriots (in likely the AFC Championship) here's what needs to happen. The Chiefs defense needs to allow less than 39 points. Or the Chiefs offense needs to score more than 44 points. Both are possible. 

Mahomes left points on the board. On their first two field goal drives, he had guys open for touchdowns. Plus the two picks. Those are plays in the second half he makes. First time going against Belichick, first time in New England, first time on Sunday Night Football...and his first half he missed a few throws. By the second half, he was making plays. 

This Chiefs defense was injured. 4 guys on defense didn't suit up: Berry, Houston, Murray, Kpass. In the playoffs, we'll need a healthy Berry and Houston, and that would change a ton. 

Even so, a 3-point loss on the road to the best franchise of the last 20 years isn't a bad loss. There's a lot to be motivated by. 

- - - 

Some other positives. Now the Rams are the last undefeated team. As I wrote earlier this week, I think that hurts a team. You start getting a big head, there's this pressure that mounts each week, you start getting questions about resting your starters or going for 16-0, comparisons to past teams...it's a distraction.

I also feel like it's easier for a team to get motivated in the playoffs when they've been beaten by that opponent in the regular season. (Going against a Belichick team that is seeking revenge is a scary thought.)

Next week, the Patriots have to go on the road to face Khalil Mack and the Bears. I've got a feeling Andy Reid will be calling his buddy Nagy in Chicago with tips on how to beat the Patriots. 

And the Chiefs get a second try on Sunday Night Football vs the Bengals. This time it's at Arrowhead. The Bengals are 0-7 on SNF. The Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread this year and they're favored by 6 points. I love, love the Chiefs this week. Getting a second chance on SNF at home is perfect.

If the Patriots (4-2) finish 13-3, that would require the Chiefs to finish 14-2. There's no margin for error. But Mahomes has proven he's up for the challenge. 

Sunday, October 14, 2018

a magic trick

The Pledge


The Turn


















The Prestige


Thursday, October 11, 2018

Name a More Iconic Duo: NFL Edition

Lions + players retiring in their primes
Browns + a top-3 draft pick
Vikings + missing kicks in the playoffs
Chargers + missing kicks all the time
Colts + landing ass-backwards into franchise QBs
Bills + losing Super Bowls
Bears + defense is their best offense
Chiefs + regular season success followed by choking leads in the playoffs
Falcons + choking a lead in the super bowl

KC Indulgent Foods

I've done posts where I research food picks of different cities or list my favorite restaurants in Denver, so this will be similar for Kansas City. But instead of being comprehensive about the city, it's more focused on "cheat meal" foods—any foods that don't fit into my healthy eating weight loss plans. So some will be just general foods and some will be specific to KC restaurants.


BBQ from Q39 and Slap's

Burger with Merkt's Cheddar and Smoked Shallot Bacon Jam from McCoy's

Super Hero at Planet Sub or anything at Jersey Boyz

Patatas Bravas and Brussels Sprouts at Louie's Wine Dive

SmokeShack at Shake Shack

Bacon Cheeseburger pizza at Godfather's

Indian Buffet at India Palace on 87th St

Tapas at La Bodega

Yellow Brickle Road ice cream from Sylas and Maddy's

Combo Italian Beef and Sausage at Chi Town Original

Anything from Beer Kitchen. Short rib grilled cheese is great. Don't forget the thai chili sauce.

Biscuits & Gravy from anywhere I suppose

I think it would be better for the Chiefs playoffs hopes if they weren't the last undefeated team. That adds pressure and history, and the inevitable mentions of undefeated Dolphins. So I'd like the Rams to take that role this year.

But...as I mentioned before, this game is huge implications for the #1 seed. The difference between 6-0 vs 3-3 with the tie breaker and 5-1 vs 4-2 without the tiebreaker is massive. So it's better for the Chiefs to win this week...and next week too. I guess I can't find a game that I want them to lose.

Sunday, October 07, 2018

Professional Teams that have Won a Game since September 17, 2018

NFL
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Browns
Cardinals
Chiefs
Chargers
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Patriots
Panthers
Ravens
Rams
Raiders
Saints
Steelers
Seahawks
Saints
Texans
Titans
Vikings
Washington


MLB
Dodgers
Brewers
Yankees
Red Sox
Astros
Rockies
Indians
Phillies
Angels
Twins
Mariners
Pirates
Mets
Padres
Rays
Cubs
Royals
Cardinals
Reds
Nationals
Diamondbacks
A's
Braves
Marlins
Blue Jays
Orioles
Rangers
White Sox
Tigers
Giants


Notable Teams that have Not Won a game since September 17, 2018
Broncos

5-0

If you were betting that I wouldn't write about the Chiefs starting the Patrick Mahomes era 5-0, you should have just lit that money on fire.

- - -

How good has the Andy Reid era been? In each of the 6 seasons he's been the head coach in KC, the Chiefs have had a 5-game winning streak. This year is the third time they've started 5-0.

But it's not just that they're 5-0.

They beat the Chargers on the road, the predicted AFC West champs.
They beat the Steelers on the road, the one team that's had the Chiefs number.
They beat the 49ers who came in 1-1 with a healthy Jimmy G.
They beat the Broncos on Monday night in Mile High.
They beat the Jaguars and their #1 ranked defense.

That's a murderer's row. You could be a good team and come out of that schedule 1-4.

Also, the Chiefs now own tiebreakers over Steelers and Jaguars, which just might be important come January.

- - -

Now the Chiefs have to play New England on the road. Even if they lose, they'll still be in first place in the AFC. So that's where we're at now. Mahomes has been the starter for 5 games and we're talking about the #1 seed.

- - -

If I was a Jags fan, I would be pissed.

This game was a complete mixed bag.

On the one hand it was 30-7 in the 4th quarter and Chiefs were just trying to end the game. On the other hand...the Jags recovered on an onside kick in a 2-possession game. And then had two possessions that went into the red zone.

In fact, let's look at how many times the Jags blew this game. I'm not going to count punts—I'm talking more blatant failures.

Down 10-0, the Jags had 3rd and 1 at the KC 3. Incomplete pass. They go for it. Incomplete pass. I think it's the right call to go for it. But when you don't get it...those points would have come in handy.

The D even forced a Mahomes interception. They had the ball at the KC 41. But then a strip sack gives the ball back to the Chiefs.

Then it was 13-0 just before the first half. The game certainly not out of reach. And then Bortles throws a pick-6.

Then they drive down the field and are in the red zone at the end of the first half, when Bortles throws it off his lineman's helmet and Chiefs pick it off.

Fast forward to 30-7 in the 4th quarter. Jags get to the KC 22 and Bortles forces it into coverage and it's picked off again.

And after all that, it's a 2 possession game and they have 2 possessions that get to the red zone. On turnover on downs, another last second pick.

Bortles had 5 turnovers. That pick six was deadly.

- - -

Patriots are a 3 point favorite at home. Yet another big game. If New England wins they're only a game behind KC in the standings and would own the tiebreaker. If KC wins, they're 6-0, Patriots are 3-3 and Chiefs own the tiebreaker.

Regular season Reid's Chiefs are 2-0 vs Patriots. 41-14 in Arrowhead in 2014 and 42-27 in Foxborough last year. So the trend would be that Mahomes & Co. puts up 43 this year.

Seriously...Alex Smith put up 41 and 42 on the Pats. The over/under is 58.5 this week. I'm taking the over.

Wednesday, October 03, 2018

AFC Playoff Picture at 1/4 Season Mark

First, the standings. And they are tasty.





I know, I know it's super early. But that no playoffs section is sweet. Okay, let's take a look at the serious teams. 

I think the Dolphins are a fraud and won't make the playoffs. Patriots should be the only AFC East team. 

Titans and Jaguars both look strong. I think the Jaguars are the favorite, Titans wild-card team probably. 

Bengals and Ravens off to a good start too. 

If you take the top records and swap the Dolphins for the Patriots, those are the 6 favorites. At this point I think these are your 4 division winners:

Chiefs
Jaguars
Patriots
Bengals/Ravens

Titans as wild card. Plus non-division-winner of Bengals/Ravens. 

- - -

Why am I doing this now?

Here's the Chiefs next three games:

home for Jaguars
road for Patriots
home for Bengals

(They also get the Ravens at home in December. And as for the NFC, they play the only other undefeated team—the Rams—in Mexico City on MNF, 11/19.)

So this next 3-game stretch will show us a lot. 

Starting 4-0 was optimistic and they did that. I think they can beat the Bengals at home. So even if they lost to Jags and Pats, they could be 5-2 and on track for a playoff bye. We know how critical the bye is, and we know the Jags and Pats are teams that will be vying for those top 2 spots. So a tiebreaker is huge. 

As for the Jags game...Chiefs are 3 point favorites. The Jags are a bad matchup for the Chiefs. Tough D and their offense can run or pass through the bad KC defense. This one could go either way. 

The Patriots is always a tough game. Still the team you fear the most. The Chiefs have had their number in the Andy Reid era, and this year's Pats had a slow start...but they're getting Edelman and Gordon up to speed. Pats should be favored. 

1-1 is the safest bet, but 0-2 or 2-0 is very much in play. 

I know that I'll be rooting against Jags, Pats, Bengals, Ravens, Titans in every game they play, hoping for a top playoff seed. 

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Mahomes Rises to the Occasion in Mile High

Comebacks. They are the losses that sting the most and the most thrilling wins. When your team is down you mentally prepare for the loss. So when your team pulls it out in the final seconds, it's even better than a normal win—it's like winning twice. The opposite is true when your team gives up a comeback. You've mentally counted on that win. You're celebrating internally. And then it all goes up in smoke. And you're in a pit much worse than a normal loss.

Oh, and when you're talking about a divisional rival it hurts way more. Especially one with an active contentious history. Even more so, if you happen to live in the opposing city. Just saying. 

I've been on the wrong end of comebacks many times, but 2015 week 2 takes the cake. The Chiefs at home in search of their first win over the Manning Broncos. KC takes the lead 24-17 with just over 2 minutes to go. You just need one stop to finally beat them. (And I'm living in Denver at the time.) And then Manning drives down the field. Converts 3rd and 8. Converts 3rd and 10. Scores. Game tied. So you think you're headed to overtime. And then they strip Jamaal Charles and it's 31-24 and the game's over in a blink. You just needed one stop. It sent the Chiefs in a tailspin. Broncos go on to win the Super Bowl. Still stings. 

- - -


Coming in the game, I had lots of conflicting thoughts. The Broncos aren't that good. Never discount a divisional rival. Mahomes and the offense is unstoppable but the Chiefs D is pretty awful. Chiefs are already 2-0 on the road. But they're 2-0 on the road, you can't win every road game. I'm not scared of Keenum...but he did do the Minnesota Miracle so there's a sliver of doubt. 

Chiefs have huge games coming up after this...Jaguars, Patriots, Bengals, Broncos again. This is a stretch that will validate or expose their 3-0 start. Would this be a trap game on the road?

By the end of the Chiefs' second drive, you could tell this wasn't going to be business as usual for KC. First time they didn't score a TD on the opening drive. Broncos were bringing pressure. Mahomes looked off. Denver's D looked a lot better, especially in pass coverage than I had been led to believe. At this point, I predicted Mahomes would through his first interception. I knew we were in for a game that would go down to the wire. 

Mahomes showed he can run in touchdowns as well as throw them in the second quarter, taking the lead 10-3. 

Then it was 13-13. Then it was 20-13 Denver.

At this point, now I've got a lot of new thoughts. Who is the best team in the AFC? Jaguars, Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Ravens, Broncos, Chiefs all in the mix. Totally wide open. Now the Broncos are in first place in the AFC West. Fuck. Rams are the only undefeated team. 

Then it was 23-13. 

Here were the Chiefs possessions after scoring the 2nd quarter TD: 

Punt (12 yard drive)
Field Goal (72 yard drive)
Punt (13 yard drive)
Punt (9 yard drive)

Chiefs get the ball with 12:47 to go in the game, down 23-13. And the Broncos D had been shutting them down. At this point, I did some pretty simple math. To win, Chiefs need to score twice get to 27. They can allow a field goal at most. So that's the winning recipe. Touchdown. Give up at most a field goal. Touchdown. 

Chiefs putting together a drive, convert a 3rd and 6...except there's a penalty and now it's 3rd and 16. Flushed out of the pocket, throwing across his body, complete for 15 yards. 
So now it's 4th and 1. Reid placed an order with Kareem Hunt Trucking Company. After they pick that up, there's a holding penalty. So 1st and 20. But Mahomes gets it back with a big play to Kelce. In fact, hits Kelce a few more times and Reid calls for a Kelce screen to score. 23-20 with 6 minutes to go.

And isn't it funny when a team is trying to bleed the clock, that they are far less dangerous than when they need to score.

Chiefs D comes up with a 3 and out, their second of the night. In the 1st quarter it was Lindsay run on first down, sack on 2nd down, pass short on 3rd down. In the 4th quarter it was Lindsay run on first down, pass short on 2nd down, sack on 3rd down.

Chiefs get the ball back, 4:35 to go. Soon it's 3rd and 5. Chiefs need a big play...

Are you kidding? Instant flashback to Monday Night Football in 2004, in this very stadium. 14 years ago, Jake Plummer threw a left-handed interception to the Chiefs. Last night, Mahomes converts on 3rd down with a left-handed toss as he's been sacked by Von Miller. Nuts.

I just realized this is the Chiefs' best version of the fluke play that defines a comeback. We've been on the receiving end of the fumble-Luck rush TD and the deflected-Mariota pass TD and now the Chiefs have the left hand conversion. I suppose this was more skillful than a lucky bounce, but still. After that, it really felt like the tide had turned.

But after two penalties it was 2nd and 30 back at the KC 31. So Mahomes scrambles and finds Robinson for 23.



Then comes the play that Denver fans are salty about. In the first frame you can see the play clock still at 1. In the second you can see the play clock expire, the ball has not been snapped. In the last frame the ball is snapped. All three were taken at 10:58 in the YouTube player.




So it was less than a second, and this exact situation happens all the time. The back judge is looking at the play clock, when it goes to zero he looks to see if the ball is snapped. I'd be pissed too. I was pissed about the holding call against the Steelers in the playoffs and when Big Ben crossed the line of scrimmage in this year's Steelers game too. The intentional grounding against Mahomes was iffy. Let's say throw the flag there. It's 3rd and 12 in 4-down territory. That didn't cost you the game.

If you're scoring at home, here are all the times that the Chiefs had more than 10 yards to go for a first down and converted anyways:

3rd and 11 - converted
3rd and 16 - converted
1st and 20 - converted
2nd and 30 - converted

It's really something when your offense is facing 2nd and 30...and you still believe your quarterback is going to pull something out of his ass.

Three plays later, Kareem Hunt in for 6. It's 27-23 Chiefs. With 1:39 remaining. Oh no. Because the last thing a Chiefs fan wants right now is to trust the defense. Against Keenum, Mr. Miracle.

First play of the drive is a sack by Armani Watts. I gotta say, Keenum looks great with Armani draped all over him. (rimshot)

But Mr. Miracle converts 4th and 11. And then next play, 36 yard pass for Denver. They're less than 30 yards away from winning. 2nd down Fuller almost picks it off. 3rd down...Demaryius Thomas runs right past the CB (who must have been expecting safety help but it wasn't there) and is wide open. Want to see how open? It's not safe for work.


No Chief within 5 yards. When you know they need to throw deep and have no timeouts so near the sideline is best. I mean, how do you let this happen? And Mr. Miracle throws it over his head.

They'd get one more chance on 4th down but that was the game right there. The Chiefs D did exactly what we feared. And Denver couldn't make the play. Ballgame.


Here's Mahomes highlight reel.

Mahomes has 2 game-winning drives in Denver. He's 5-0 in the NFL, 4-0 on the road.

He snapped Broncos 38-game streak of not allowing 300 passing yards. Snapped Denver's 65-game win streak of holding a double digit lead in the 4th quarter.

Still hasn't committed a turnover.




Hey look, it's Von Miller on the front page of the KC Star:



You're not going to believe this but the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 6 games in a row. They've beaten the Broncos at Denver in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was that 2015 game I mentioned in the beginning.

The Mahomes era is real. And it's spectacular. 

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Ranking the Chiefs seasons 2001-2017

I'm picking 2001 as it coincides with the year I went to college and the beginning of the Vermeil era.

- - -

17. 2012

Romeo Crennel. Worst team in the league, 2-14. Fans formed the Save Our Chiefs organization, flying banners over the stadium demanding the firing of the GM. And a player committed murder and then killed himself on Arrowhead ground in front of the GM and Coach. No jokes to be made, just the low point of the franchise.

16. 2008

Brodie Croyle was the starting quarterback. He would finish his career 0-10 as a NFL QB.

15. 2007

Coming off a playoff berth, the Chiefs started 4-3 before losing their last 9 games. Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle battled for the quarterback position. Yikes. I saw them lose in person to the Jaguars.

14. 2001

This was a mediocre season that I barely remember. We weren't watching a ton of NFL that first year in the dorms. They finished 6-10 in Vermeil's first season.

13. 2009

They sucked this year finishing 4-12, but did beat the Steelers in overtime on my birthday, which is a better present than most people get. And they blew out the Broncos, knocking them out of playoff contention in week 17. They at least had the decency to suck from the beginning.

12. 2011 

The Chiefs sucked this year too. They finished 7-9 but never felt good. The only highlight was being the only team in the regular season to beat the 15-1 Packers.

11. 2002 

The Chiefs finished 8-8 in last place in the AFC West, but it did have two memorable things: In week 1, Dwayne Rudd on the Browns threw his helmet off in celebration which enabled Morten Anderson to win the game for the Chiefs. The second was the Raiders getting blown out in the Super Bowl.

10. 2006

This year started terribly with Trent Green going down in week 1 (and me burning my burgers filling my apartment with smoke). The highlight of the season was having everything happen exactly right in week 17 to get them into the playoffs.

9. 2004

The season opener featured the left-handed interception by Plummer on MNF. That was a Chiefs loss to the Broncos. Got to see Dante Hall score a return touchdown in the first game that I took Mrs. Hoagie Central to. That was a Chiefs loss to the Chargers. So some decent moments in a frustrating 7-9 season.

8. 2014

This is so far the low point of the Andy Reid era and it was still pretty good. They crushed the Patriots on Monday Night Football and then beat the Seahawks—the two eventual Super Bowl teams. Mrs. Hoagie Central and I flew into KC to see the Chiefs blow out the Rams. And no playoff heartbreak. This is the first good season on the list.

7. 2005

This was my first year in Chicago and this season was actually pretty great. Started with a domination of the Jets in the season opener, a week 6 win over Washington I watched in a Lakeview bar, an incredible win over the Raiders (that at the time I called the greatest game ever played) and a December win over the Broncos on a 4th down stand. I even got to see a blowout win in person, Vermeil's last game. Didn't even have to suffer through a playoff loss.

6. 2010

This was the only season between 2003 and 2016 where the Chiefs won the division. It started on MNF with me doing a rain dance in Burnsy's apartment on Milwaukee. There was an incredible back and forth OT win over the Bills. And we saw them beat the Cardinals at Arrowhead on an incredible birthday weekend. They didn't have a shot in the playoff game but at least it wasn't a choke job.

5. 2017

Last year had quite the ups and downs. Started the year with an incredible win on the NFL Season Opener in Foxboro. Then beat the eventual champs, Eagles. Got to 5-0. And then the wheels came off. Lost to the Giants, Bills and Jets, all three terrible teams in consecutive weeks. I went to two home games, first time seeing the Chiefs beat the Broncos and also the Bills loss. The Chiefs were up 21-3 in the playoffs over the Titans. Great! Mariota came back by converting a deflected pass into a touchdown.

4. 2013

You have to read the 2012 entry at the top of the list to understand the turnaround. The Chiefs bring in John Dorsey, Andy Reid and Alex Smith. They went from having the #1 pick in April to having the #1 record in the NFL in October. They were 9-0 and a legit Super Bowl contender in November. That kind of storybook turnaround is still incredible. Unfortunately, starting 9-0 isn't good enough to win the division. The Broncos beat the Chiefs twice and finished 13-3, Chiefs 11-5. The Chiefs were even up 38-10 in the playoffs in Andy Reid's first year of the Chiefs. Great! Luck came back by converting a running back fumble into a touchdown. The only thing that saved the season was living in Denver and watching the Broncos get blown out in the Super Bowl.

3. 2016

The Comeback Chiefs. Most teams are lucky to get one comeback a year. This season they had 4 incredible comebacks. Down 17-0 against the Panthers, the Marcus Peters strip and punt game. The Eric Berry Pick-2 game in Atlanta. The biggest comeback in Chiefs history, in the opener over the Chargers. And the best game I've seen to date. If I could watch only one game over and over, this is it. Mile High Magic. And then I moved to Kansas City and went to Arctic Arrowhead for the Ty-reek game to win the division. It didn't have a 9-0 start or a playoff win, but this season was the most entertaining and enjoyable as it was happening.

2. 2003

This was the season that rekindled my love for the Chiefs. 2003 was our first year out of the dorms AND the first year we did any kind of fantasy football, so the NFL became a huge part of our lives. And this was the year that Dante Hall broke out and became the most exciting player in the league. Hall's return TD's were the game winners over the Ravens and Broncos. In week 6, the Chiefs were down 31-14 in the 4th quarter to Favre's Packers in Lambeau...and would come back to win 40-34 in OT. Priest Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, the best O-Line. A very special offense. They went 13-3 and earned the #2 seed and a bye. I remember praying at Thanksgiving for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. They lost to Manning in the no-punt playoff game and I was devastated. What a formative year.

1. 2015

What a fucking ride. Chiefs opened the season with a solid win over the Texans and had me thinking Super Bowl. And then in the most important game...catastrophe. Charles fumbles away the game to the Broncos. Chiefs spiral to 1-5. I called them brutal. I called their season over. Then they go and win 10 regular season games in a row, including finally beating Manning's Broncos. But it's the playoff win that puts this over the top. Because without this streak, this season, this playoff win, the Chiefs would be 0-9 in the playoffs since 1994 and the insane 2017 Titans playoffs loss would sting a lot more. So yeah, I'm pretty glad they went on that streak. (This season is also marred by the Broncos winning the Super Bowl, but a Chiefs playoff win is still a Chiefs playoff win.)


I supposed the take away here is that hiring Andy Reid was the best thing that ever happened to the Chiefs. And that the Chiefs have given me a lot of joy...even in losing seasons, there are plenty of memorable moments to enjoy.

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Dante Hall X-Factor

Over ten years ago, somebody uploaded a video about Dante Hall, The X-Factor, with the song, X Gonna Give It To Ya. In 2009, I posted it as the video that pumps me up the most. Of course, it's been taken down since then. So I tried to recreate it.

I synced the video to the lyrics at :38, :45, :57, 1:13, 1:41. Of course the best one is at :57.

Mrs. Hoagie Central and I were in the crowd for the one at 2:00.

password: sucks




Also, here's a backup link in case vimeo takes this down.

Chiefs Streaks

I had a hunch that when Chiefs get a winning streak, it's usually at the beginning of the season. So I went back to 2000 and looked for any winning streaks of at least four games.

CHIEFS 4-GAME WIN STREAKS SINCE 2000

2003
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 13-3

2004
4 win streak - started week 13
finished 7-9

2011
4 win streak - started week 4
finished 7-9

2013
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 11-5

2014
5 win streak - started week 7
finished 9-7

2015
10 win streak - started week 7
finished 11-5

2016
5 win streak - started week 6
finished 12-4

2017
5 win streak - started week 1
4 win streak - started week 14
finished 10-6

Okay, that's interesting. I'm going to filter out the 4-game winning streaks. While good, they didn't ensure winning seasons. In my gut, the benchmark was 5. I asked Mark and he said 4 was notable, a month without losing.


CHIEFS 5-GAME WIN STREAKS SINCE 2000

2003
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 13-3

2013
9 win streak - started week 1
finished 11-5

2014
5 win streak - started week 7
finished 9-7

2015
10 win streak - started week 7
finished 11-5

2016
5 win streak - started week 6
finished 12-4

2017
5 win streak - started week 1
finished 10-6

There you go. 6 times this millennium the Chiefs have been on fire. 3 of them have been to start the season: 2003, 2013, 2017. But they've also gotten in rolling in weeks 6-7. (Obviously, it's not possible to start a 5-game winning streak in weeks 14-17.)

If you look at streaks of 6 or more, it's to open the season in 2003 and 2013 and to close the season in 2015.

As for my hunch, it's not completely borne out, but yes the Chiefs hot streaks do tend to start at the beginning of the season.

2018 NFL Gambling: Method C

A quick recap: before the season started I created 2 methods of betting on NFL Futures.

Method C is ongoing wagers throughout the season.

Here's what I have so far:

1000 on Chiefs to win division +140
1000 on Rams to win division -290
2000 on Chiefs to win division +130


That leaves me with 6000 more to spend this season. With Jimmy G out for the year, the Rams odds have jumped up to -1600 to win their division. Seems like a lock, but putting 1000 on those odds is kind of pointless. 

At the moment, Pats are -300 and Dolphins are +260. Coming into the season, I thought the Dolphins would finish between 6-10 and 8-8 and I think that's still true. They haven't played anyone good. I still believe in the Patriots long term. The Dolphins play the Pats this week and I'm guessing the Pats win and go back to being a -800 favorite...so -300 is tempting. In fact, Patriots are still the AFC favorites for making the SB at +325 with Chiefs at +350. 

(At the moment I'm convinced Chiefs win the division but incredibly nervous that they fall short in the playoffs.)

I'm going to go ahead and put 

1000 on Patriots to win division at -300
500 on Rams to win NFC at +250

Still leaves me 4500 for the rest of the year. 

Jaguars at -175 to win division is tempting. I don't believe in the Titans, Colts or Texans so I expect those odds to get much worse. But I'll wait and see.

11.30.18 Update

Man, good thing I didn't trust the Jags. At this point, I still have 4500 to spend, so I might as well use it up:

1000 on Chiefs to win AFC at +210
1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230
500 on Ravens to win division at +350
2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900

Monday, September 24, 2018

Spreading the Ball

Chiefs with TD Receptions
Hill
Kelce
Conley
Watkins
Sherman
Harris
Hunt
Robinson
Thomas

That's 9. The record in a season is 13 (Falcons.)

Chiefs that have Receptions but not TD Receptions
Ware
Williams
Kemp

Chiefs that have Rushes but not TD Receptions
Mahomes

At this rate, decent odds that Ware gets a TD pass, Williams could get one too eventually. Kemp is unlikely. Mahomes to Mahomes requires a fluke batted ball, but Kelce to Mahomes is in play.

Chiefs used to use Dontari Poe on the offense, so you never know, but it's going to be hard to find 13 players to catch balls.







Wednesday, September 12, 2018

The Difference One Week Makes


On August 30, the AFC West odds were:

LA +150
KC +265
OAK +325
DEN +400

The Chiefs are now the favorite all the way up to +140 while the raiders went from 3rd to an incredible +1000.

Chiefs going to the Super Bowl went from +1400 to +1200. For the moment, Oakland still has better odds of going to the playoffs than the Chiefs have of making the Super Bowl.

The Lions odds of winning their division dropped from +650 to +850.

Knowing what we know now and going off of current odds, the best values seem to be

Chiefs +140
Washington +600
Panthers +240
Rams -290
Jaguars Even


I mean, the Pats are -1300. So there's just not any value there. Meanwhile the Rams seems to almost be as good of a lock and they're only -290. The Chiefs are in the driver's seat and still at +140. The Eagles are -200 but why couldn't Washington be just as good?

I already have done two fake gambling methods, so I'm going to introduce a third. Method C will go on throughout the season, dispersing 10,000 fake dollars. From previous years, I already know that the first couple games don't determine the whole season, but perhaps I can find value in jumping on division winners before they get the kind of odds the Patriots already have.

To start Method C, let's go 1000 on Chiefs +140 and Rams -290. Not as good as the odds before the season, but likely to get less valuable throughout the season.

Edit: After Jaguars beat Pats in week 2, their division odds jumped from even to -160. But you can still get Chiefs +130. Rams -300. I know I'm biased but those are the three playoff teams I can pencil in after two games: Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams. So based on the odds, I'm loving Chiefs +130. I'm going another 2000 on Chiefs +130.



Tuesday, September 11, 2018

current mission impossible rankings

3, 5, 6 in some order
1, 4 in some order
2

Sunday, September 09, 2018

The Pat Mahomes Era Starts With A Big Win

I typically don't try to make too much of one game, particularly the opening week when wonky stuff happens. But this was a big win for the Chiefs. Let's break it down.

In my head divisional games are worth 4 times as much as a single Chiefs result outside of the division. A win over say the Texans can be canceled out if the AFC West leaders win their game too. But beating the Chargers means giving them a loss, while a loss hurts the Chiefs and helps the Chargers.

The Chargers were the preseason favorite to win the division.

This was a Chiefs road game. Always good to start with a road win and still have 8 home games left. In fact, one of the Chiefs road games is actually a neutral site in Mexico City. Season just started and only 6 road games left.

This continues the streak of 9 straight wins for Chiefs over Chargers. It's nice to start the season by reminding the Chargers they can't stay on the same field as the Chiefs.

Mahomes is the real deal. He wasn't perfect and not every throw goes on the highlight reel. But for his first meaningful start, he played tough, smart and make enough plays to lead an offense to 31 points (the first TD was a punt return).

It helps that neither the 49ers nor the Steelers looked like world-beaters today. The path to opening 3-1 or even 4-0 seems more realistic now than it did 8 hours ago.

Oh yeah, and Eric Berry didn't play this game. Any time you can be down a great player and still get the W is a huge help.

In fact, the Chiefs were up 31-12. I think they let up off the gas on purpose, knowing they didn't need to pull out any more tricks.



Thursday, September 06, 2018

NFL Predictions Roundup

Yahoo:



Yahoo likes Vikings, Packers, Steelers and Jaguars.


The Ringer's Super Bowl Picks

Mays: Rams over Vikings
Clark: Patriots over Vikings
Kelly: Saints over Patriots
McAtee: Rams over Patriots
Sherman: Rams over Patriots
Heifetz: Saints over Chargers

So the Ringers likes Rams, Patriots, Vikings and Saints.


NFL.com has 21 experts making picks which makes it hard to summarize, but their top teams to win the Super Bowl are Rams, Saints, Falcons.


Compositing all three sites, and here are the consensus top 8 teams.

Vikings
Packers
Rams
Saints
Falcons
Patriots
Steelers
Jaguars

Here are our Calcutta owners by number of these top 8 teams:

Kirat: 3
Niraj: 1
Dave: 1
Matt: 1
Savan: 1
Mark: 1

As a bonus, here is the Ringer's NFL Wins Pool draft, a vastly inferior version of our Calcutta auction. (The biggest flaw is doing a snake draft instead of an auction which robs the whole thing of validity. The other flaw is only doing wins not including the postseason.)


The consensus 8 is born out except for the inclusion of the Eagles.

I think the top 3 squads are easily Kevin, Riley and Bill. The key is the last pick. I think the Cowboys, Washington and Dolphins could all win 6 or 7, possibly more. I think it comes down to Kevin and Riley and the difference should be Watson's Texans vs Garoppolo 49ers (as I think Pats/Steelers and Dolphins/Cowboys are washes.) The people predicting Mal to win are insane. Seahawks and Broncos will be bad.

Edit: And I happened to see a Chiefs SB pick, so I'm including it.





Thursday, August 30, 2018

2018 NFL Sportsbook

Futures are a sucker bet. On the other hand, a sucker is born every minute. Let's do this!

I thought it would be interesting to approach things in 2 ways. The first is applying my predictions that I made without looking at the odds. The second is looking at the odds for efficiencies. I'll give myself an imaginary $10,000 for both and see what happens.

Before I can do either, I'll post the odds for future reference:






Method A: 

To make this as simple as possible, I'm going to put $1000 on each of the division winners I picked:
Texans +185
Chiefs +265
Steelers -230
Patriots -800
Saints +155
Rams -160
Cowboys +375
Packers +140

With the remaining $2000, I'll put $1000 each on 
Saints +900 to make Super Bowl
Steelers +450 to make Super Bowl 

I could have put additional money on Steelers at +1000 to win the Super Bowl, but I'm out of money and I've already put enough on the Steelers. 


Method B: 

Now I'll be looking for teams that provide value to win their division:

$500 on 49ers +300
$500 on Cowboys +375
$500 on Chiefs +265

Then load up on heavy favorites:

$3000 on Patriots -800
$4000 on Steelers -230

Then some fliers on making the Super Bowl:

$200 on Chiefs +1400
$300 on 49ers +1100
$500 on Saints +900
$500 on Falcons +1000



Who ya got? Method A or Method B? Feel free to play along in the comments. 



EDIT: The Ringer just came out with their list of surprise teams: Broncos, Bengals, Washington. 
If you trust the Ringer more than Hoagie Central, you'd be betting money on Broncos +400, Bengals +750 and Washington +750. Of the three, the Broncos winning their division would surprise me the most. Washington makes sense. Smith played great last year, Eagles hangover, Giants were terrible, Cowboys could be mediocre. We'll see.

Wednesday, August 29, 2018

2018 NFL Preview

Two years ago, I identified storylines for all 32 teams. Pretty interesting to go back and read them--many still apply, many seem laughably outdated. This post was actually inspired by, of all things, the AFC South. So I'll start there.


AFC South

Andrew Luck is back! Or at least Andrew Luck is back. Andrew Luck is back? We'll see. After an off-season of reports that had him not permitted to throw a regulation size ball, all eyes are on him. He seemed destined to be the new Manning or Rodgers at one point, but now it's unclear who he is. If he is that type of ELITE QB, then we should be seeing it on the field. Likewise for the Texans, Deshaun Watson is back. Last year he was the most electrifying player and story and it seemed like the Texans were headed for playoff success. An injury derailed that and now we're waiting to see if he can recapture that glory. The Titans ended up winning a playoff game (can't remember how that happened) and then immediately fired their Head Coach. Teams don't usually fire their head coach after winning their first playoff game in 14 years. But hey, their new coach Vrabel is running wind sprints so they should be in good hands. Mariota has a little bit of the Luck thing too...if he's great, shouldn't we be seeing it by now? And then there's the Jaguars. They were a play or two away from the Super Bowl. Last year they had the defense, Fournette and Bortles came through in the clutch. Was it a fluke? (I think so.) I bet the defense regresses, Bortles struggles, and Fournette is still awesome—he can carry the ball but can't carry a team.

Division Winner Prediction: Texans

AFC West

The Patrick Mahomes era is upon us. On paper, it's the best offense since the 2011 Eagles Dream Team. The potential for the offense is seriously high and this is assuming that Mahomes is the savior we think he is. There will be struggles and the question is will the highs overcome the lows? Also, the defense will be likely bad, possibly terrible. I'm saying take the over every Chiefs game. The Chargers are getting hyped up like they are every year but they lose more players to injury than any other. Something in the ocean? They could win the division at 9-7 but I wouldn't bet on it. Denver seems lost. Case Keenum will need a whole lot of Mile High Miracles to save this team. And the Raiders? Their Vegas stadium is set to open in 2020, so this probably isn't their last Oakland season, but you never know. Maybe they'll play 2019 in Reno. They got Gruden coaching who will likely be out of touch. None of these teams figure to be that great, so I'll stick with the winner the last two years.

Division Winner Prediction: Chiefs

AFC North

The Browns have been grabbing players and they've entrusted Baker Mayfield to be the quarterback of the future. They'll be bad again this year, but one day, they might possibly eke out a winning record in our lifetimes...maybe. The Bengals and Ravens are both boring. They occasionally put a good year together but otherwise just kinda lay there. I trust the Ravens to surprise more than the Bengals. But this division still belongs to the Steelers. This is their last year with Bell and it shouldn't be too hard to win this division again.

Division Winner Prediction: Steelers

AFC East

As long as the Pats have Brady, they're a lock to win the division. How much more does he have in the tank? The Jets have their QBotF in Sam Darnold, the Bills have Josh Allen and the Dolphins are returning Tannehill. If the Pats were in a better division this would be interesting...but it's not. 

Division Winner Prediction: Patriots

NFC South

On the receiving end of the Minnesota Miracle is the Saints. Brees is still great, Kamara is great, they still have a top coach. The Saints were as close as you can get to the NFC Championship and still have a few more years of Brees. Time to make the most of it. The Falcons are solid and trying to return to their 2016 highs. A lot of the same players could make this interesting. Neither the Bucs nor Winston are good. In a weaker division they might have a chance, but this is a tough hill to climb. Did you remember that the Panthers won 11 games last year? I didn't. Seems like this will be a dogfight between the Saints and the Falcons and we now know the Falcons stance on dogfighting.

Division Winner Prediction: Saints

NFC West

Goff, Gurley, Cooks, Donald, Suh, Peters, Talib, McVay. If you can build teams on paper, the Rams have already won the Super Bowl. Should be the most interesting team to watch and see if the talent coalesces or blows up. Also in the division: Jimmy G. The biggest investment questionmark ever. Is he the next Tom Brady? This is our first chance to see for real. The Seahawks used to be good, but now they don't have a Legion of Boom. Can Pete Carrol form a new identity. And the Cardinals will valiantly claim fourth place with Bradford and Rosen. Desert football! Fitzgerald is still playing, that's something. Really should have won that Super Bowl with Warner, would have been nice. As for who wins this, do you trust a dream team or a the dreamy QB? I'll go with the team in the division, not necessarily in the playoffs.

Division Winner Prediction: Rams

NFC East

Philly Philly won the Super Bowl with Foles and Wentz is better so when they get Wentz back they'll win 2 Super Bowls. Right? Isn't that how this works? The Eagles were special and should be good again, but it's hard to repeat. The Giants are putting all their money on Odell, their top pick on Barkley, and trusting Manning for one last ride. Seems like they could maybe get to 9 or 10 but will likely be mediocre. (Barkley is awesome though.) Washington went from Cousins to Smith in the most lateral move possible. And the Cowboys have moved on from Dez Bryant who used to be a top 10 receiver and is now in street clothes. It wouldn't surprise me if any of these teams come in 1st or 4th in the division. Because of the hangover effect, I'm giving a slight nod to Dallas over Philly.

Division Winner Prediction: Cowboys

NFC North

During the entire Rodgers-Brady era, I thought the safest preseason Super Bowl pick was always Packers-Patriots. The Packers have gone to exactly 1 Super Bowl since drafting Aaron Rodgers in 2005. If your team had Rodgers, I think you'd expect more. Trubisky & Nagy sound like Chicago cops. I wasn't super impressed with their strategy of not letting Trubisky throw the ball last year but what do I know. The Lions have brought in Matt Patricia from the Belichick coaching tree. Unfortunately, it seems like that coaching tree doesn't bear fruit. And then there's the Vikings who had 3 quarterbacks which really meant they had 0, so they went all in on Cousins for a fully guaranteed contract. The good news for them is career-ending injuries on their practice turf are virtually unheard of. Bears last. Lions third. Vikings and Packers down to the wire. Because I'm an idiot who never learns I will stick with Green Bay.

Division Winner Prediction: Packers


- - -

AFC Playoff Predictions

1 Steelers
2 Patriots
3 Texans
4 Chiefs
5 Jaguars
6 Raiders

NFC Playoff Predictions

1 Packers
2 Rams
3 Saints
4 Cowboys
5 Falcons
6 Vikings

- - -

Super Bowl LIII

Steelers over Saints

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

I'm going to do a little NFL preview. Stay tuned.

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

cell phone timeline





LG VX6000
July 2004 - May 2006

I got my first cell phone in the summer of 2004. It was a decent phone. It had two plastic hinges and eventually one side broke off, but I was eligible for my New Every Two at that point.




LG VX8300
May 2006 - February 2008

This was my favorite phone. This had one strong hinge in the center and nice speakers on the side of the phone so you could always hear it ringing. This phone was still working when I upgraded as part of my New Every Two.




LG VX8350
February 2008 - May 2009

This phone was quite plain. They finally made a phone without a visible antenna. And yet it was ugly. It was broken during the Autopilot release party and I had to do an early upgrade.





Samsung Trance
May 2009 - July 2010

My first phone that wasn't an LG clamshell. I didn't mind the sliding aspect, but it wasn't a big deal. It seemed fine until I lost service while camping and never got it back. I took it into a Verizon store and they said it was dead. In a coincidence, I lost the charger the day before it died.





LG Accolade
July 2010 - April 2013

My fifth phone. Of the previous four, the 8300 was the only that was still working when I upgraded. But this one lasted forever.






LG Revere 2
April 2013 - April 2015
My last flip phone. Pretty forgettable.




LG G3
April 2015 - April 2017

My first smartphone. I loved how the curved back fit in the palm of my hand. And how the power and volume buttons were all on the back so there were no buttons on the side. Just clean lines.






LG G6
April 2017 - August 2021

I loved the G3 so much that I stuck with LG. Volume buttons on the side...but they did add the wide angle camera which I use a lot. Love the screen and camera still. I did see Niraj's Pixel so I will have to consider that in the future. But the Samsung S8 Galaxy is too narrow and I don't like the curved screen.

Update: The G6 was good to me and is still going strong over four years later, although it's slowed down and battery is not what it's used to be. LG stopped making smartphones so it's time for...
Google Pixel 5a 5G
September 2021 - April 2023


Went with this because it has a great camera, headphone jack, great battery, no curved screen, and affordable. Everything I was looking for.



Google Pixel 6a
April 2023 - Present

I truly loved my 5a. So I was pretty bummed when it slid out of my pocket getting out of a car, fell less than two feet and became a brick. 6a seems like the same thing but without the headphone jack and it's not as comfortable to hold because it doesn't have a fingerprint sensor on the back.