The Difference One Week Makes

On August 30, the AFC West odds were:

LA +150
KC +265
OAK +325
DEN +400

The Chiefs are now the favorite all the way up to +140 while the raiders went from 3rd to an incredible +1000.

Chiefs going to the Super Bowl went from +1400 to +1200. For the moment, Oakland still has better odds of going to the playoffs than the Chiefs have of making the Super Bowl.

The Lions odds of winning their division dropped from +650 to +850.

Knowing what we know now and going off of current odds, the best values seem to be

Chiefs +140
Washington +600
Panthers +240
Rams -290
Jaguars Even


I mean, the Pats are -1300. So there's just not any value there. Meanwhile the Rams seems to almost be as good of a lock and they're only -290. The Chiefs are in the driver's seat and still at +140. The Eagles are -200 but why couldn't Washington be just as good?

I already have done two fake gambling methods, so I'm going to introduce a third. Method C will go on throughout the season, dispersing 10,000 fake dollars. From previous years, I already know that the first couple games don't determine the whole season, but perhaps I can find value in jumping on division winners before they get the kind of odds the Patriots already have.

To start Method C, let's go 1000 on Chiefs +140 and Rams -290. Not as good as the odds before the season, but likely to get less valuable throughout the season.

Edit: After Jaguars beat Pats in week 2, their division odds jumped from even to -160. But you can still get Chiefs +130. Rams -300. I know I'm biased but those are the three playoff teams I can pencil in after two games: Jaguars, Chiefs, Rams. So based on the odds, I'm loving Chiefs +130. I'm going another 2000 on Chiefs +130.