Birthday Wishes Do Come True

 

The Chiefs never led in the first half. The didn't have the lead with the ball until the final kneel down. 

The whole game, I was like "some birthday game, this sucks." But by the end, it was clear this was the best Chiefs game on my birthday ever. 

- - -

ESPN's win probability calculate gave the Raiders a 73.7% chance to win before the Chiefs final drive. 

In this house, I was 80-90% sure Mahomes was going to go down the field and get a touchdown. And 20% worried he would score too quickly. 

Let's zoom in on that game-winning drive. Started at the KC 25 with 1:43 to go and 1 timeout. 

7 pass plays. Mahomes went 6/7. The only 3rd down they had was a 3rd and 1. Drove down the field and scored with 28 seconds left. Made it look easy. 

- - -

This game was marked by long, sustained drives that ate clock. 

In most games, both teams get around 10-11 possessions. Last night, when the Raiders started their last drive with 28 seconds left...that was their 8th possession of the night!

Results of the first seven Raider possessions: four touchdowns, one field goal, two punts. 

Results of the first seven Chief possessions: four touchdowns, one interception, two punts. 

Neither defense performed well. But look at that above again...how did the Chiefs win?

The Raiders 7th possession scored with 1:43 to go and left KC with a timeout. This is where time management matters. 

If you're the Raiders here, to win the game, you have to do two things. 

1) Score a touchdown

2) Leave the Chiefs with under 30 seconds and no timeouts. 

This is not an either or thing. You have to do both. 

The Raiders had 1st and 10 from the KC 23 with 2:24. They're down 4 and KC has 2 timeouts. 

At this point, you have to keep the clock running. Run, screen pass, whatever. 

Two incomplete passes. 

Bottom line, they had lots of chances to run the clock down, or at least make KC burn all their timeouts. They didn't and Mahomes burned them in the end. 

So now Chiefs are 1-0 in Las Vegas. 

- - -

Mahomes is 5-1 vs the Raiders. 

Andy Reid's Chiefs are 13-3 vs the Raiders. 

Let's do the rest of the division. 

Mahomes is 4-1 vs the Chargers. 

Andy Reid's Chiefs are 12-3 vs the Chargers.

Mahomes is 5-0 vs the Broncos. 

Andy Reid's Chiefs are 10-5 vs the Broncos.

So at this point, Mahomes is 14-2 in the AFC West. 

Since 2016, Chiefs are 25-3 in the division. That's insane. 

- - -

Chiefs are now 9-1. Last year, when they won the Super Bowl, they were 6-4 at this point. 

Steelers are 10-0. All we need is for the Ravens to beat the Steelers and then KC will be sitting in the #1 seed. Lots of good football coming up.

Sports Divisions by Recent Titles

I thought it would be fun to sort through all the major sports divisions by how recently any of those teams have won a title.

NFL AFC West	2020
NFL AFC East	2019
NFL NFC East	2018
NFL NFC West	2014
NFL AFC North	2013
NFL NFC North	2011
NFL NFC South	2010
NFL AFC South	2007

MLB NL West	2020
MLB NL East	2019
MLB AL East	2018
MLB AL West	2017
MLB NL Central	2016
MLB AL Central	2015

NBA Pacific	2020
NBA Atlantic	2019
NBA Central	2016
NBA Southwest	2014
NBA Southeast	2013
NBA Northwest	1979

NHL Atlantic	2020
NHL Central	2019
NHL Metro	2018
NHL Pacific	2014

Notes:

MLB is on an incredible run of parity, with the last six titles each won by a different division. 

NFL is about what you would expect. 

NHL is strange that they only have 4 divisions. 

And the NBA is very strange to have that outlier of the Northwest Division. 

Here's the list for all sports.

NBA Pacific	2020
NFL AFC West	2020
MLB NL West	2020
NHL Atlantic	2020
NBA Atlantic	2019
NFL AFC East	2019
MLB NL East	2019
NHL Central	2019
NFL NFC East	2018
MLB AL East	2018
NHL Metro	2018
MLB AL West	2017
NBA Central	2016
MLB NL Central	2016
MLB AL Central	2015
NBA Southwest	2014
NFL NFC West	2014
NHL Pacific	2014
NBA Southeast	2013
NFL AFC North	2013
NFL NFC North	2011
NFL NFC South	2010
NFL AFC South	2007
NBA Northwest	1979

My Teams on My Birthday

Back in college, it seemed like Illinois football always played Northwestern around my birthday (11/22) as the last game of the season. Illinois was pretty bad and not usually in bowl contention, but I at least thought beating Northwestern was attainable and a good way to end the season. And then this year, not only are the Chiefs playing on my birthday, but it's the Raiders (traditionally the most hated rival), it's a revenge game, and it's a national prime time game. 

Leading up to Sunday, I figured it would be fun to take a look back at the history of what's happened when my teams play on my birthday. 

I'll be counting Illinois and Chiefs since 2001, and Avalanche since 2011 when I moved to Colorado. 

First up, some notable games that were close, but not actually on my birthday. 

11/24/01 Illinois vs Northwestern - Illinois wins to secure a BCS berth in the Sugar Bowl

11/23/02 Illinois at Northwestern - Illinois wins to go 4-4 in the Big Ten

11/23/03 Chiefs vs Raiders - Chiefs win to improve to 10-1, giving me real hope that KC would go to the Super Bowl or at least win a playoff game

11/20/04 Illinois at Northwestern - Illinois loses the last football game for me as a student, going 1-7 in the Big Ten

11/20/10 Illinois vs #25 Northwestern in Chicago - Illinois ran all over a ranked Wildcats team in Wrigley Field, winning 48-27, and clinching a bowl game. LeShore set a school record with 330 rushing yards.

11/21/10 Chiefs vs Cardinals - Mrs. Hoagie Central and I attended this game in person, as part of a birthday weekend trip to Kansas City. Chiefs won big and I ate a ton of barbecue. Win-win.

11/27/16 Chiefs at Broncos - Yes, this was a full 5 days after. But it was one of the best Chiefs games I've ever seen. My last Chiefs-Broncos game as a Denver resident, the OT doink winner. Never forget. 

Birthday Games

11/22/03 Illinois vs Northwestern - loss

11/22/04 Chiefs vs Patriots - loss

11/22/08 Illinois at Northwestern - loss

11/22/09 Chiefs vs Steelers - The 2-7 Chiefs were hosting the 6-3 Steelers as a 9.5 home underdog. Won in overtime. Great game. 

11/22/14 Illinois vs Penn State - win, don't remember this at all

11/22/14 Avalanche vs Hurricanes - Mrs. Hoagie Central and I attended this game in person, the only Avs game that we went to together. And it was the first time since I became a fan that they came back from a late deficit and won in regulation. Awesome win. 

11/22/15 Chiefs at Chargers - This was the year the Chiefs started 1-5, but then rallied to 11-5 and give me the first Chiefs playoff win of my life. A blowout win on my birthday was great, and lead to something even better.

11/22/17 Avalanche vs Stars - win, don't remember this one

So there you go, I'm on a 5-game winning streak on my birthday. I haven't seen the Chiefs lose on my birthday since 2004. See you Sunday night. 

OKC / KC Thunder?

I just spent 20 minutes looking for a hoagie central post I was convinced I wrote and published but cannot find it. It would have had to be written since 2017 when I moved to KC. The gist was that some media outlet (I think it was Sports Illustrated) had a chart/ranking of sports cities and it counted the OKC Thunder as the NBA team in the KC market. 

I'm sure I had some opinions about it and then possibly came around to saying, maybe one day I'd consider being a Thunder fan...not sure, that's why I was trying to find it. Anyways, I wanted to see it because OKC Thunder now have 17 first round picks. 

Edit: As soon as I published, I found it in whatsapp...

That last comment should say I could take the boys.

I found the Ringer article it was referring to.

I guess no big conclusions, just the realization that of all the NBA teams that I could become a fan of, the choices are really Nuggets (where I used to live but never went to a game) or Thunder (closest to current home, KC/OKC connection). 

Though I don't really like the NBA that much and have been doing just fine not being a fan of a MLB/NBA team. 

I do think it's kind of fun that I've picked up a team(s) wherever I've lived. Grew up in KC, became a fan of the Chiefs. Moved to Illinois/went to U of I, became a fan of U of I football and basketball. Then moved to Colorado and became an Avalanche fan. Maybe Mrs. Hoagie Central will move us to the east or west coast one day and I'll adopt a baseball or basketball team one day.

i just had a really good lunch

2 Foster Farms buffalo chicken tenders + Bolthouse Farms blue cheese dressing 
bagged cabbage cole slaw mix + homemade low-cal southwest cole slaw dressing

Estimating 400 cals for chicken, 35 for blue cheese, 45 for cabbage, 70 for homemade dressing. Whole filling meal for 550-600 cals.

Super Bowl-winning Franchise QBs

Here is the complete list of Super Bowl winning quarterbacks since 2003, sorted by draft year.

P. Manning - 1998

Brady - 2000

Brees - 2001

Roethlisberger - 2004

E. Manning - 2004

Rodgers - 2005

Flacco - 2008

Wilson - 2012

Foles - 2012

Mahomes - 2017

So what's the point? Since Rodgers was drafted 15 years ago, there have only been 4 QBs to enter the league and win a Super Bowl. Flacco and Foles can both kinda be taken out of the equation as they were really guys that got hot for a playoff run, not true franchise QBs. 

So that leaves Wilson and Mahomes as the only Franchise QBs that have entered the league since 2005 and already won a Super Bowl. 

The opportunity to get a Super Bowl winning QB doesn't come along very often. 

Also it's really wild to think that in 2016 Mahomes throw for over 5,000 yards, 41 touchdowns, 10 interceptions at Texas Tech...and had a losing season at 5-7. 

Then he sat out 2017 on the bench behind Alex Smith. 

In his first season as a starter, he was NFL MVP in 2018, as only the second player ever to throw 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards.

And in 2019 he became Super Bowl MVP. 

EDIT: One more thought I had. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl in the 2013 NFL Season, in Russell Wilson's 2nd season. Their success seemed to create a new blueprint for winning a title: spend your money on a great defense and then employ a serviceable QB on their rookie deal. It's that easy!

So far the only team to win a Super Bowl with a new QB...was the Chiefs. 

As it turns out, this whole modern idea of you don't need a great QB, just a QB on a rookie deal....looks like a joke. Wilson and Mahomes are MVP candidates every year now. Yes it helps that they were on a rookie deal, but this is not a replicable blueprint. Just ask the Bears or Texans who also drafted QBs in 2017. 

So the blueprint is actually what it's been for a while. Get a MVP QB and build around them the best you can. And even with Rodgers or Brees or Favre, you might only win one, but be happy you got that.

8-1

Chiefs get to the bye at 8-1 with conference wins over Ravens and Bills. KC doesn't play Titans or Steelers in the regular season.

The bye is at a great time as it should allow their OL to get healthy.

The next game is Sunday Night Football on my birthday, a chance to avenge their only loss to the Raiders. And it's after the bye, so Reid has an extra week to prepare while LV plays next week. 

The Steelers schedule is pretty soft so it seems likely the race for the #1 seed will come down to Chiefs and Steelers. Not sure who will own the tiebreaker if they have the same record yet. 

- - -

At any rate, the Run It Back campaign is right on track. Love to see that the Patriots are a non-factor. Ravens are still dangerous but so far seem to be taking a step back from last year. 

If it comes down to Steelers and Chiefs in the AFC Championship, I'll feel pretty good about Big Ben vs #MVPatrick.