Sunday, January 31, 2021

Weight Loss by Month: January 2021

August – November 2020: 30 pounds 

January 2021: 7 pounds


A bit of a stranger update. 

After only losing 3 pounds in November, I lost 5 pounds in the first half of December. Some of that was probably catch-up weight from Thanksgiving. But then there was Christmas where I definitely got off track. In early January I got on the scale and I had gained those 5 back. But in January I got back on track, and those 5 were quick to come off again. 

So essentially I didn't lose any in December, but now I'm down 7 this month, 37 overall. 

The second thing that made this weird was that we started lifting weights. There were some days where I expected weight loss, felt a lot smaller, but then even gained weight. That could be retaining water or actual muscle building, or both. Point is, unlike in 2020, the scale might not be a great way of measuring progress. As in, I should be gaining muscle weight as I'm losing fat. 

Regardless, I'm getting in better shape, fitting in clothes that I haven't worn in 4 years. And no holiday weeks or vacations to throw me off track.

Definitely seems like I can pass 40 pounds lost in February, so that's something to look forward to. 

Given that January was inflated by those 5 from Christmas and the lifting weights, I'm not going to lose 7 in Feb. I'd be happy with 3-4 this month.


Friday, January 29, 2021

Super Bowl Props

I've never been one for Super Bowl Props...but my team's never tried to win back to back Super Bowls. 


I'm putting $1000 of fake money on each of these. 


Race to 30 Points: Chiefs +120 

Time of First Score Under 7:30 +165

Chiefs -10 (Alternate Line) at +250

Successful 2pt Conversion +275

First Score is a Bucs Field Goal +450

Chiefs win by 7-12 +500

First Penalty is Pass Interference +700

 

I'll see if I can turn a profit once I take away the initial $7000.


UPDATE:

So this was neat. A great way to lose $7000. Good thing it was fake money, Jesus.

Insane stat: In the 17 games the Chiefs starters played, the Chiefs defense was on the field losing by more than 8 points for exactly one snap. 

Whenever teams opened up a two-possession lead (ie Bills went up 9 in the AFC Championship Game) the Chiefs always scored. 




Thursday, January 28, 2021

How Super Bowl LV Could Unfold

Games can unfold in any number of ways, even when you're 50 minutes of the way through. I thought it would be fun to consider what are some of the ways that it could happen, look for precedents, and then see which one seems the most likely. 


1. The Early Chiefs Comeback + Cruise to Victory

Precedent: Chiefs vs Bills last week, Chiefs vs Texans & Titans last year

This is where the Chiefs get in an early hole, typically 10 points or so, but take the lead by halftime and hold on for a 10+ margin of victory. The opponent hangs around but it never actually feels like the game is in doubt in the 4th. 

Final Score: Chiefs 34, Bucs 24


2. The Late Chiefs Comeback, Close Game

Precedent: Chiefs vs 49ers last year, Chiefs vs Patriots two years ago

This is where the Chiefs are trailing in the 4th quarter and need some Mahomes magic. As long as he touches the ball, you feel good about your chances. 

Final Score: Chiefs 38, Bucs 34


3. The Chiefs Take Big 1st Half Lead, Opponent Makes It Close Late

Precedent: Chiefs at Bucs this year

Two months ago these teams played in Tampa and it was 17-0 Chiefs in the first quarter. Tampa cut it to 27-24 with 4 minutes to go but never got the ball back.

Final Score: Chiefs 34, Bucs 31


4. The Chiefs Take Big 1st Half Lead, Opponent Comes Back to Win

Precedent: Chiefs vs Raiders this year

Mahomes has won 25 of his last 26 games. But that one loss, KC was up 21-10. We know Tom Brady can come back in Super Bowls. 

Final Score: Bucs 37, Chiefs 34


5. The Chiefs Play Their Best Game

Precedent: Chiefs vs Ravens this year, at Broncos this year, quarters 2-4 of Texans game last year

Mathieu makes a pick, Sorensen forces a fumble, Chiefs receivers are getting open. Basically, the AFC Championship vs Bills but without the muffed punt. 

Final Score: Chiefs 38, Bucs 17


6. Mahomes Gets Hurt

Precedent: Last year vs Broncos, this year vs Browns

If Chad Henne has to play more than he did in the Browns game, that's bad news for KC. 

Final Score: Bucs 27, Chiefs 17


7. The Chiefs Get Outplayed

Precedent: Last year vs Colts, 1st quarter of Texans playoff game

If the Chiefs drop every pass, fumble the ball, and get beat on deep balls over and over, this game won't be close.

Final Score: Bucs 34, Chiefs 20


8. The Bucs Do What They Did to the Saints & Packers

Precedent: Bucs last 2 games

All the other possibilities have been from a Chiefs perspective, but the Bucs just won two playoff games as underdogs. Their defense made plays and the Bucs were aggressive when they needed to be. The games were close for the most part, but the Tom Brady team just won in the end. 

Final Score: Bucs 30, Chiefs 27



So that's four ways that each team could win. 

What do I think is most likely? 1, 3 or 5. 

I don't normally predict wins, because it's extra embarrassing if they lose...but I do think Chiefs will be up 10 points in the 4th. Maybe the Bucs get a late touchdown like they did in the regular season, or maybe Chiefs make it a 3-possession game. 

Tuesday, January 26, 2021

The Chiefs Come Back in the Playoffs

Most teams in the NFL play best with a lead. It's common knowledge. You can call any play you want. Your QB doesn't have to force throws. Your defense can tee off on the pass rush. There's less pressure to score quickly. There are plenty of teams from the 2020 Colts to the 2019 49ers, who you like a lot if they have a 10 point lead but not so much if they're down 10. 

The Chiefs are the opposite. 

- - -

In their 7 playoff games with Mahomes, there have been 5 where the Chiefs faced at least a 2 possession deficit. 

In those 5 games where they trailed by 9+, KC is 4-1. (The other two games the Chiefs also won.)

KC trailed by 14 to New England. Game went to OT and KC lost. 

KC trailed by 24 to Houston. KC won by 20.

KC trailed by 10 to Tennessee. KC won by 11.

KC trailed by 10 to San Francisco. KC won by 11. 

KC trailed by 9 to Buffalo. KC won by 14.


KC erased all 5 playoff deficits. They've turned the last four into double digit wins.

I've said when you go up 10 on Mahomes, it activates his superpowers. The Bills knew this and missed the extra point, making it a 9-point lead. But ball don't lie. Superpowers were activated anyways. 

That's the scariest thing about playing this team. If you take the lead, they have you right where they want you. In fact, as I just wrote about, their only loss in the last 15 months was when KC got up 21-10 on the Raiders.

Take a 9 point lead on this team at your own risk.

Monday, January 25, 2021

Super Stats

Tom Brady really skewed everything. 

When we were growing up, here was the list of QBs that won at least 3 Super Bowls. 

Montana 4

Bradshaw 4

Aikman 3


That's it. Getting to 3 was a special club. 4 was for the best. 

And then Brady comes along and is how about I win 6, maybe 7. 

I mean, if we set aside Brady for a second...Mahomes has a chance in two weeks to get halfway to Joe Montana at age 25. That's pretty cool.

- - -

In 2018, the NFL MVP race was down to Mahomes and Brees. 

In 2019, the NFL MVP race was down to Mahomes and Lamar.

In 2020, the NFL MVP race was down to Mahomes and Rodgers.

As much as everyone is ready to hype up Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson or Deshaun Watson, there has been one constant force since the moment he entered the league.

- - -

In the first two seasons, Mahomes has either won MVP or Super Bowl MVP. Has a chance to keep that streak alive as well.

Deep Dive on Chiefs Hot Streak

The Chiefs are hot. How far back does this hot streak go?

So this year they went 16-1 when they weren't resting their starters. They ended last year on a 9-game winning streak. So they are 25-1 in their last 26, when they play their starters. That's pretty good. 

Before that includes a 6-4 stretch where Mahomes missed 2 games with a dislocated kneecap. 

And before that includes his first year as a starter where the Chiefs earned the #1 seed. 

So yeah, their last loss (playing starters) was October 11, 2020. Before that it was November 10, 2019. 

This team is hot. But also they've been hot for a while. So I guess that just means they're great. 

- - -

Which begs the question...how did the Raiders beat them this year?

The Chiefs got out to a 21-10 lead in the second quarter. But the Raiders responded with a TD drive. A holding penalty stalled KC. Then LV took the lead on a 72-yard bomb to Ruggs. Tied at 24 at the half. 

Then in the 2nd half, something that you just don't see: The Chiefs couldn't move the ball on 4 straight drives. 3 punts and an INT on 4th down. 

Meanwhile the Raiders added 16 points. Down 40-24, Mahomes did go down and get 8 with 5 minutes to go. But the defense couldn't get the ball back. Final 40-32. 

So if you're Tampa, the blueprint is stop Mahomes four straight times, hold the Chiefs to 32 points and get to 40 yourself. 

LV was Mahomes only loss this season. But he can make up for it with a win in Super Bowl LV. 



LET'S GO

 


OT Wraparound

Do you like wraparound goals? 

How about to win the game in OT?

To my kids, the Super Bowl is just the last game of the year for the Chiefs.

And they still don't even care.

Sunday, January 24, 2021

WE BACK

Chiefs Kingdom waited 50 years to go back. Now it's an annual tradition. 

Mahomes went 16-1 this year. Delivered the best regular season in franchise history. 

He's 6-1 all-time in the playoffs. That's the best record by percentage in the Super Bowl era. The one loss though? Tom Brady on the Patriots. 

- - -

Let's talk about that game actually. If Dee Ford lines up properly, the Chiefs win that game and go to SB 44 to play the Rams. I've talked ad nauseam about how fragile legacies are, but now look at this way. 

With 3 years of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs have hosted 3 AFC Championships. They've advanced to 2 Super Bowls. And it would have been 3, if a defender just wasn't offsides. 

- - -

The floor for the Chiefs right now? The Legion of Boom Seahawks. They won SB 48. They went back to SB 49 and lost and haven't been back since, despite a MVP candidate QB and the same coach. 

That could absolutely happen to KC. Nothing in the future is guaranteed. Ask Dan Marino or Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees how easy it is to get back to the Super Bowl, even for legendary players. 

So that's the floor. And ya know, the Seahawks had a great run. They were a force and are remembered fondly. Of course, everything changed with they lost that Super Bowl at the last second...to Tom Brady. 

So if that's the floor, what's the ceiling for Mahomes and the Chiefs? It's Brady and the Patriots/Bucs. This is Brady's 10th SB appearance. He won three right away. Then lost his next two appearances, going 10 years without a win in his prime. But then starting with that win vs Seattle, has gone 3-1 in the latter part of his career. 6-3 in the Super Bowl, going for #7. 

Mahomes is going for #2 and is 18 years younger than Brady. If the Chiefs win, Mahomes trails Brady 6-2 in rings and has 15 good years to get another 4. It's not laughably crazy, which is insane in itself. 

Of course, if Tampa wins, Brady finishes this season with a 7-1 lead in rings over Mahomes. 

In terms of vying to be the GOAT, this game counts double. 

- - -



Brady vs Mahomes V

Brady took the first two matchups both in 2018, regular season and AFC Championship. 
Mahomes took the next two, 2019 in New England and 2020 in Tampa Bay. 

This year's game in week 12 was 17-0 in the first and 27-10 in the 4th. Brady got two scores in the 4th to cut it to 27-24. 

- - -

Oh yeah, Mahomes is going to his 2nd Super Bowl and he still has never lost a game by more than one possession. 

- - -

Here's the list of back to back Super Bowl Champions in my lifetime:

49ers: 23+24
Cowboys: 27+28
Broncos: 32+33
Patriots: 38+39

(in case you were wondering, no team has ever won 3 straight Super Bowls)

Back to back Super Bowl wins is rarefied air. 

- - -

I watched this franchise be dogshit. 

I watched Andy Reid bring us back to relevance. 

Then I saw Veach and Dorsey and Reid trade up to get their guy and he is setting the league on fire. It's literally beyond what I dreamed of. 

Man, I know there's more to say...but we've got time. 

Friday, January 22, 2021

Chalk Picks

Packers -3
Chiefs -3

SIMMONS: 
Bucs +3
Chiefs -3

Monday, January 18, 2021

One Game Away from Super Bowl LV

In the 4th quarter, I turned to Brit and said "this is why you go to the parade when you have the chance."

11 months ago, I stood downtown as red and gold confetti fluttered around me and took a picture of Patrick Mahomes as he rode by on a victory bus. An hour ago, he got knocked out of a playoff game that was comfortably over and an entire city held their breath. 

- - -

At halftime, the Chiefs led 19-3, having scored on all four possessions. They opened the 2nd half by intercepting Baker Mayfield. KC started that drive inside the red zone. I expected the score to be 26-3 in a matter of moments. Instead the Browns defense held and Butker's 33-yd kick doinked off the left upright. Always a bad omen. 

Just off the top of my head, the Colts doinked one against the Chiefs two years ago in Mahomes first playoff game, Tucker doinked two in Saturday's loss vs the Bills. Obviously there's the Bears double doink, but that was the end of the game. I'm talking about doinks that doom a team with plenty of time left. 

After the missed field goal, the Browns respond with their best possession so far, a 77-yard TD drive. The Browns smartly kicked the xp. Way too early to start chasing points. 

It's midway through the 3rd, 19-10. Time to secure the game. 

Chiefs have 3rd and 1 near midfield. On the previous drive, Mayfield ran a qb sneak to convert 3rd and 1. But Andy Reid hasn't called a sneak since Mahomes got injured on one last year. I was literally thinking about that before this play. That it would be nice to pick this yard up, but it's not worth the risk. And then what happens...

Mahomes keeps it on an option play to the right and isn't able to stand up after the tackle. 

All of a sudden, 19-10 doesn't seem like a safe lead any more. All of a sudden, you don't know if Mahomes can come back in the game, come back next week, or if his season is over. All you know is Chad Henne is in the ball game. 

Chiefs add a field goal. 

Browns get a touchdown. 

There's 11 minutes left in a playoff game. No Mahomes. Chiefs up 5. 

One Henne pick-six and the season is over. One Henne sack-fumble and the season is over. 

Henne makes a few big plays to Hill and Kelce. Drives them down to the Browns 23. In position to run a few plays, bleed some clock, even a field goal makes it an 8-point game. But KC gets called for a crack back block and now it is 1st and 25. Henne throws deep and it's an easy interception. 

Browns have the ball, down 5, 8 minutes to go. 80 yards to glory. If you're the Browns, everything has fallen into place. The best player in the game is in the locker room, you're one drive away from knocking out the Champs. 

On the first series, the Browns get a 4th and 1 and sneak it. It burns. Mayfield can do that anytime he wants, getting easy pickups. They can go down the field and win like this. 

Two plays later, it's 3rd and 11. Game on the line. Let's take a closer look. The play starts at 4:31.


At 4:30, Clark is beating his man around the left edge, Jones #95 is pushing his man back up the middle.


A few frames later, still at 4:30, Clark and Jones are closing in. 


At 4:29, the ball is coming out of Mayfield's hands. He is about to be hit by Chris Jones. The pressure has forced Mayfield to dump the ball off to Kareem Hunt instead of waiting for a receiver to get open.


Hunt makes the catch and barely gets to the line of scrimmage before the defender meets him and makes a tackle. Gain of two for the Browns. They punt on 4th and 9. 


But there's still 4:09 to go. Chiefs need at least two first downs with Henne at QB. Which is more than the Browns could get with Mayfield with the game on the line. 

- - -

This was the best regular season in Chiefs history. Mahomes was 23-1 in his last 24 games. And it was all on the verge of slipping away. But because the Chiefs were so good this year...because they got to 14-1 and clinched the #1 seed in Week 16, Chad Henne started Week 17. 

- - -

3rd and 4 with 3:21 to go. Henne dumps it to Darrel Williams in the flat. It's a sprint to the sideline. On a play where the Chiefs need 4, they get 5. 

On 2nd and 8, the Chiefs need to keep the clock moving. But instead of running, Henne is back to pass in the shotgun. Almost fires it to Kelce, but pumps instead, and takes a sack. There was a second where I thought the ball came loose, but he held on. 

So now it's the 2-minute warning. 3rd and 14. You'd love to pick this up but you need to keep the clock running. Also, Mahomes is not an option. 

Reid sends 4 receivers deep, with an RB leaking slowly into the flat on the right. Henne scans and looks for someone to throw it to. Here he is at 1:58, standing on the 26 yard line in the middle of the field.


And here he is five seconds later, diving at the 48 near the sideline. 


It's hard to explain what happened in that gap. The least expected thing possible? Chad Henne turned into Lamar Jackson? 




And then on 4th and 1, Andy Reid dials up a fake draw them offsides, Tyreek speed out. Henne is on the money and it's game over. 

- - -

The absolute wildest stat?

Next Sunday, the 51st AFC Championship Game will be played.

In the 48 seasons without Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs made the game 1 out of 48 times.

In the 3 seasons with Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs are 3 for 3.

Before Mahomes, the Chiefs never hosted an AFC title game. With him, they've never not. 

It's insane. 

I spent so many years wondering if I'd ever see one. Mahomes changed everything. 

- - -

ALSO, having won a Super Bowl changes everything. I was much more at peace on Sunday than I would have been otherwise. There is easily a scenario where the Chiefs lose to the 49ers or even the Texans last year, and then lose to the Browns yesterday. Everyone would say Andy Reid can't win the big one. That Mahomes is overrated and can't stay healthy. I'd have witnessed 3 MVP caliber seasons of Mahomes wondering what it would take to get over the hump. 

We think legacies are carved in stone, but they are fragile as glass. 

- - -

Andy Reid is the only coach to host three consecutive conference title games. And he's done it twice now. 

Chiefs vs Bills, the two best teams in the AFC.
Mahomes vs Allen, the two biggest arms in the league. 

At least, we think it's going to be Mahomes. If he's ruled out for Sunday, then everything changes. Instead of KC being favored by 3, Buffalo would be favored by 4. I mean, Mahomes is worth more than 7 points. Anyways, I'll have to assume he's playing because otherwise, what is the point?

Should be a good game. As long as Mahomes plays the whole game, we'll have a good chance. 

Get past Buffalo and it's either Mahomes vs Rodgers or Mahomes vs Brady.

Crosswords I Made

I recently went through a phase of creating crosswords. It's not as easy as it looks. Here were the four that I created. 


Well-Traveled

Pacific Pangram

Bill Murray

Architectural Features

Friday, January 15, 2021

Divisional Picks

SIMMONS PICKS

Bills -2.5
Packers -6.5
Chiefs -10
Bucs +3


MY PICKS

Bills -2.5
Packers -6.5
Browns +10
Bucs +3

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Playoff Storylines

There are 8 teams left in the NFL playoffs. One of them will win a Super Bowl, changing the way we look at the players and franchise. Right now any of them could become true. And the difference could be just one play in a game of inches. 


Ravens

Lamar Jackson follows up his MVP season with a Super Bowl ring, exactly the path of Mahomes. Jackson and Mahomes are now equals, both with one MVP and one ring. He shrugs off a reputation for not being able to win the big game before he turns 25. 


Bills

Josh Allen and Diggs never have to pay for a drink in Buffalo for the rest of their life. Allen cements his status as genuine elite QB, winning a title before Lamar or Deshaun. Allen starts getting compared to Mahomes, both winning a title at age 24. Many tables are smashed. 


Browns

If 2020 wasn't crazy enough, the Browns win the Super Bowl. Stefanski becomes Coach of the Century for winning a Super Bowl in his first year as Head Coach. Mayfield gets a statue, and people start putting him in the same elite tier as Lamar and Deshaun. 


Chiefs 

The Chiefs repeat as champions, something that hasn't been done since 2004. Mahomes wins his 2nd ring at 25, more than Brees or Rodgers. The comparisons between Chiefs and Patriots, Mahomes and Brady heat up. 


Rams

Sean McVay becomes a Super Bowl winning coach at age 34. Redemption after losing to the Patriots two years ago. Aaron Donald is crowned the best player in the game. 


Packers

Rodgers wins MVP and the Super Bowl in the same year. That extra ring puts him on the same level as Peyton, more than Brees, and importantly, more than Favre. 


Saints

Drew Brees wins his last game as Super Bowl Champion, just like Peyton did. Cements his legacy as a true winner, not just a yardage king. Payton gets his 2nd ring as Head Coach, becoming the 10th coach to win multiple Super Bowls. 


Bucs

Tom fuckin' Brady. Wins six rings with the Patriots, then leaves to win one with the Bucs. Meanwhile the Patriots miss the playoffs. Shows everyone that it was him, not Belichick. Arians wins his first ring as a head coach, having won twice as an assistant. 



We're getting one and only one of these outcomes in less than a month. 

Friday, January 08, 2021

Playoff Picks

Bills -6.5

Rams +3

Bucs -8

Titans +3

Bears +10

Steelers -6





Monday, January 04, 2021

Playoffs

Ranking Which Teams I Want The Chiefs to Face in the Divisional Round

Colts

Browns

Titans

Ravens


Ranking Which Teams I Want The Chiefs to Face in the AFC Championship

Browns

Steelers

Titans

Ravens

Bills



Having said all that, I expect the Ravens to come to Arrowhead next week, and the Bills to reach the AFC Championship. 

Friday, January 01, 2021

Happy New Year

A year ago, the Chiefs SB Nation site tweeted this as the Happy New Year message. 



It's amazing to go back now and look at the Twitter comments from that day. 














With all the success we've had with Mahomes, it's can be hard to remember what it was like...but these comments bring me back. Other fans shitting on the Chiefs, saying we can't even win a playoff game. These comments used to sting because they were true. Now, they're something to revel in.

Patrick Mahomes through Three Seasons

Patrick Mahomes has been the Chiefs starting QB for three seasons, playing 51 games so far, including the playoffs.

In those games, the Chiefs are 42-9.  Here is every game he's played in sorted by margin. 




These numbers are objectively insane. 

The 42-9 record by itself is remarkable. 

Out of 51 games, 24 wins were by more than one possession. 0 losses were. 

14 wins were by 16+. With Mahomes, the Chiefs have been more likely to win by 16 than lose. 

In the playoffs, the Chiefs are 4-1 with Mahomes. All 4 wins were by double digits. The one loss was an OT loss where Mahomes didn't get to touch the ball. 

Of those 9 losses, the Chiefs offense scored 31+ in 6 of them. The other three losses, the Chiefs scored 28, 24 and 13. (The 13-19 loss to the Colts was the one game I've seen Mahomes play in person.) 

In 49 of 51 games, the Chiefs have scored 22+ points. 

The only franchises that Mahomes has played and not defeated are the Rams and the Seahawks. Of the 31 non-KC franchises, Mahomes has defeated 23 including every AFC team. He missed last year's games against the Packers and Vikings. Next year he gets his first crack at the NFC East. 

With Mahomes, the Chiefs point differential is +476 over 51 games, averaging +9.3 per game.