Wednesday, May 29, 2013

4 weeks in

Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5
Week 2 = 199
Week 3 = 197
Week 4 = 196

This number is a bit deceptive. Last week I took a bunch of stroller walks in the evening, spent all day Saturday working in the yard, and stayed on track with food . The result was that Sunday the scale showed 194.5. 

Monday (Memorial Day) was the first day in May that I went crazy, eating whatever I wanted. I probably had double the calories that I was used to eating (about 3500-4000 instead of 1800). Tuesday the scale showed 197. 

Now we're told that there are 3500 calories in a pound. So if I ate an excess of 1800 calories on Monday, you would expect me to gain half a pound. So I can assume that the 2.5 pound gain isn't really true fat. It's probably mostly water. Today I was down to 196, but I'm probably really at 195 and am optimistic that by next week I could be down to 193.5 or so. 

All in all it was a pretty healthy week, just that one day that threw off the numbers.

Friday, May 24, 2013

Coach Roy

I think you had to do it. I'm excited.

I'll back up a little bit. The Avs now with Joe Sakic in charge of personnel and the #1 pick this summer (destined to be a defenseman named Seth Jones) needed a new coach. After seeing Stastny and other Avs come to life in the worlds, it became even more obvious that our players aren't that bad.

Possible candidates included Patrick Roy, Lindy Ruff, Dallas Eakins, and Guy Boucher. Many thought that this young team needed a coach with lots of NHL experience. And Roy doesn't have any. He's been coaching in the minors for 8 years and had success, but this is his first NHL gig.

I think this was the call you had to make. Because I think Roy could be hockey's version of Jim Harbaugh.

I think the other coaching candidates were solid. But Roy is that X-factor. He may need some time. But I think that he has the highest upside. He could galvanize this team into something special in a few years. And most importantly, if your goalie becomes lights out, you can beat anyone. And I figure who can coach Varlamov or other goalies better than Roy?

So yeah, I'm excited. Sakic and Roy back together. Let's do this.




Wednesday, May 22, 2013

In the groove

Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5
Week 2 = 199
Week 3 = 197

I was all excited on Monday when I saw 196.5 and thought this week was going to be more like week 1 than week 2. And then Tuesday it was 197.5. Today I got 197. I'll take it. 

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

The first week is always an outlier


Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5
Week 2 = 199

Wednesday, May 08, 2013

I am losing weight

May 1 was day 1.

Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5

Monday, May 06, 2013

Royals-Rockies world series. Calling it.

How much is home field worth? (NFL point spreads)

For years, I've heard that home field is worth three points. Occasionally you'll hear 3.5 points. But compared to what?

I wanted to know is home field worth 3 points relative to a neutral field, or relative to an away game?

To me, it makes sense to calculate this relative to a neutral field.

Covers.com just released points spreads for all games weeks 1-16, so I figured we could figure it out.

I wanted to start by looking at some teams not known for a HFA.

Rams
at home vs Cardinals: Rams by 4.5
on road vs Cardinals: pick 'em

at home vs 49ers: 49ers by 4
on road vs 49ers: 49ers by 7.5

Rams average HFA = 2 points (relative to neutral)

Bengals
at home vs Steelers: Bengals by 1
on road vs Steelers: Steelers by 2.5

at home vs Browns: Bengals by 6
on road vs Browns: Bengals by 3

Bengals average HFA = 1.625 points

Texans
at home vs Colts: Texans by 4.5
on road vs Colts: pick'em

at home vs Jags: Texans by 10
on road vs Jags: Texans 4.5

Texans average HFA: 2.5 points

Titans

at home vs Colts: Colts by 1
on road vs Colts: Colts by 4.5

at home vs Jags: Titans by 3.5
on road vs Jags: pick'em

Titans average HFA: 1.75 points


Okay, so far it seems like the fabled HFA is worth 3-3.5 really means relative to an away game. Let's take a look at teams that might have a perceived higher HFA.

Broncos
at home vs Chiefs: Broncos by 7.5
on road vs Chiefs: Broncos by 4

at home vs Chargers: Broncos by 6.5
on road vs Chargers: Broncos by 3

Broncos average HFA: 1.75 points

Packers
at home vs Lions: Packers by 4.5
on road vs Lions: Packers by 1.5

at home vs Vikings: Packers by 4.5
on road vs Vikings: Packers by 1

Packers average HFA = 1.625 points

Seahawks

at home vs Cardinals: Seahawks by 8.5
on road vs Cardinals: Seahawks by 6

at home vs 49ers: Seahawks by 2.5
on road vs 49ers: 49ers by 2.5


Seahawks average HFA = 1.825 points

Chiefs
Broncos = 3.5 point swing
Raiders = 4.5 point swing

Chiefs average HFA = 2

btw, Lions average HFA = 1.75


Conclusion

For these 9 teams, the average HFA in the NFL is 1.87. Double that and you'll get 3.74 which is near the 3.5 points that is thrown around.

But I think it's important to use the number relative to a neutral field, because you can't say that (versus the Raiders for example) that the Chiefs home field advantage is 4.5 points. Because then you're ignoring that the Raiders would have a similar home field advantage.

A quick google search turned up this quote: "So if the odds-makers believe that 2 teams are evenly matched, the home team will almost always be a 3 point favorite." 

I think that sums up conventional wisdom. But that would be a six-point swing, and in the 36 matchups I looked at, there weren't any that high.

Does this really help? I think so.

Let's take a look at week 3: Chiefs at Eagles. Eagles are favored by 3. The Eagles don't play at KC this year. But based on my numbers it seems that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Vegas thinks the Eagles are a bit better than the Chiefs. I would expect a line in KC to be around Chiefs by 1, and a line at a neutral field to be around Eagles by 1.

Does knowing that really help? Perhaps not. But it's something.

Friday, May 03, 2013