Happy Jewish Day of Blasting to you and yours. May all your shofars get blown extra hard.
Sunday, September 25, 2022
Sunday, September 18, 2022
Threading the Needle
Mark and I play head to head in two fantasy leagues.
One where we pick new players weekly, Eliminator.
One where we draft players and keep them all season, Ironman.
In Ironman, at this very moment, we're tied. We each have one player left on Monday Night Football, both Vikings. I've got Dalvin Cook and Mark has Justin Jefferson. Pretty simple, which ever Viking scores more, that's your winner.
In Eliminator, I'm up 7.5 points and I've got Buffalo's kicker Tyler Bass. But Mark has...wait for it...Dalvin Cook.
- - -
So Mark needs Dalvin Cook to outscore Bass by more than 7.5 in one league. He also needs Jefferson to outscore Cook. A bad game by Bass and good game by Jefferson takes care of that.
I need the opposite. I want Cook to outscore Jefferson but not outscore Bass by more than 7.5.
If Cook is trash or amazing, then each of us will win one game, and we'll both be okay with that. But if Cook is average, that opens the door for the possibility of either one of us threading the needle and going 2-0 this week.
Update:
Well Bass put up 12 for me and Jefferson only put up 7 for Mark. So the needle eye was open for me.
If Cook put up 7.5 or more that would be enough for me to win Ironman.
If Cook put up 19 or less that would be enough for me to win Eliminator.
And there's a big sweet spot of 7.5 to 19 where I could win both.
He put up 4 points.
I won Eliminator by 15.5 and lost Ironman by 3.
Killer Garlic Bread
I was loosely following this recipe, but didn't have fresh parsley or green onions. I didn't have good parmesan either, so I substituted a little shaker parm and a little shredded mozzarella.
But what made this so good was the fresh garlic — this was my first time using my garlic press and it was great. I used half a stick of softened butter, stirred in 3 cloves of pressed garlic, pinch of kosher salt, mix of dried parsley/oregano/basil, bit of shaker parm and shredded mozzarella. Stirred into a beautiful spread and covered the split soft french bread.
(We did a test taste where we tried slices of the baguette vs the split loaf, and the split loaf narrowly won on texture.)
I baked at 400F until it was golden, took maybe 8 minutes, can't remember.
I think what made this so good was that it was garlic-forward and wasn't overpowered with cheese.
Update: Just made this a second time. Mixed everything together except for the mozzarella, spread it out on a split loaf, topped with more mozzarella than last time. It was equally good. The key here is the garlic press and combining it with the softened butter.
Thursday, September 15, 2022
Monday, September 12, 2022
Super Bowl-winning Franchise QBs
This was one of my better posts (and it didn't even crack my "best of" recap).
So if one of Brady, Rodgers, Ryans, Flacco, Stafford, Wilson, Cousins, Tannehill or Mahomes wins SB57 then this will come true: the only QB drafted in the last ten years to win a Super Bowl is Mahomes.
There have been two Super Bowls since that post and the only addition is Matthew Stafford - 2009.
Which means that still in 2022, the only franchise QBs drafted since 2010 to win a Super Bowl are Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes.
It is entirely possible that after Super Bowl LVII in February 2023, the only QB drafted in the last ten years to win a Super Bowl is Mahomes.
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2022 Week 1 Starters sorted by Draft Year
Sunday, September 11, 2022
Week 1 Knee Jerk Reactions
Week 1 is not yet in the books, so what better time to overreact?!
As predicted right here, the Bengals will have a Super Bowl loss hangover season and Ravens will win the AFC North.
As predicted right here, the Vikings will win the NFC North. Vikings and Eagles are early favorites to meet in the NFC Championship.
Wednesday, September 07, 2022
Ringer Predictions
It's really great that everyone loves Buffalo so much. The city definitely deserves to experience the joy of a championship. But maybe, just maybe, they're a bit overhyped. We'll see.
Monday, September 05, 2022
Conclusion: Connelly vs Spread
Last week, I found Bill Connelly's magic spreadsheet where he finds the biggest differences between his projections and the spreads. So how did he do?
San Diego State -6: LOSS
Nevada PK: WIN
Kentucky -16.5: WIN
Boise State +3: LOSS
Buffalo +24: WIN
Notre Dame +17.5: WIN
Pittsburgh -7.5: LOSS
Rice +32.5: LOSS
Ole Miss -21.5: LOSS
Minnesota -36.5: WIN
Kent State +22.5: LOSS
BYU -12: WIN
6 wins, 6 losses. That will lose you money every time.
If you had played his top 3 or top 5 bets, you could have won. But his very best bet was a huge loser. So none of these are guaranteed.
Maybe...maybe...his projections will get better as the season goes on and learns more about the teams.
Saturday, September 03, 2022
2022 NFL Preview
Let's get to it.
AFC West
The most loaded division in the league is one I know well.
The floor for the Chiefs in the Mahomes era is an overtime loss at home in the AFC Championship. The ceiling is a Super Bowl win.
Meanwhile, Herbert is absolutely the real deal and the Chargers will be right in the mix. The Broncos added Russ Wilson so that will be interesting. And the Raiders have Carr but they've added Davante Adams.
All four teams should be good which means it will be hard for any team to get to 13 wins.
I think it's Chiefs-Chargers-Raiders-Broncos, but it will be very close, every team between 8 and 12 wins.
AFC North
Easiest thing on the board to predict is Super Bowl Hangover. Sorry Bengals. They were a 10-7 team that overachieved. 9-8 feels right for them.
The Steelers don't have a QB. And the Browns won't have one until week 13.
Ravens winning this division seems like easy money.
I like Ravens as only playoff team from this division. Bengals, Steelers and Browns should all be mediocre, between 6-9 wins.
AFC South
An interesting but flawed division. Titans have Tannehill and Henry but no AJ Brown. The Colts have had a good GM and roster but no quarterback since Luck left. Enter 37-year old Matt Ryan. Texans are rebuilding and Jaguars will be better but probably just frisky, not good yet.
I think it's Colts-Titans-Jaguars-Texans. Though Davis Mills showed promise. So I wouldn't be completely shocked if they show signs of life.
AFC East
Bills are great. Patriots are good. Dolphins have life and a Cheetah. And the Jets suck.
Bills-Pats-Dolphins-Jets.
AFC Playoff Picks
1 Bills
2 Ravens
3 Chiefs
4 Colts
5 Chargers
6 Pats
7 Raiders
NFC West
Rams are defending champs. 49ers are starting the Trey Lance era. Seahawks are starting over without Russ. And Cardinals have a QB that needs a homework clause and Hopkins is missing 6 games.
Rams narrowly ahead of 49ers, narrowly ahead of Cardinals. Seahawks last.
NFC North
Packers still have Rodgers but don't have Adams.
Bears are early on in their rebuild phase with Fields
And Vikings have a lot of talent but do you pick a team with Cousins ahead of a team with Rodgers?
Bears will finish in last place. I'll pick Vikings narrowly ahead of Packers, but both to make the playoffs.
NFC South
Falcons are starting the post-Matt Ryan era with Mariota. Panthers are having a qb competition between Baker and Darnold. I think the lasik-Winston Saints could be interesting. And then there's a 45-year-old QB in Tampa.
Tampa's probably better than the Saints, but at some point Brady has to show signs of being human, no?
Fine. Bucs, Saints at the top, Falcons and Panthers at the bottom.
NFC East
Danny Dimes.
Wentz.
Hurts.
Dak.
Seems too easy to stay it'll be a repeat of last year, but that's still what I think. Dak is better than Hurts, but do we really trust the Cowboys to win the division twice in a row.
So let's say Eagles just ahead of Cowboys, Commanders and Giants in the distance.
NFC Playoff Picks
1 Bucs
2 Rams
3 Vikings
4 Eagles
5 Packers
6 Saints
7 49ers
Super Bowl LVII in Arizona:
Chiefs over Vikings
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