Coach Roy

I think you had to do it. I'm excited.

I'll back up a little bit. The Avs now with Joe Sakic in charge of personnel and the #1 pick this summer (destined to be a defenseman named Seth Jones) needed a new coach. After seeing Stastny and other Avs come to life in the worlds, it became even more obvious that our players aren't that bad.

Possible candidates included Patrick Roy, Lindy Ruff, Dallas Eakins, and Guy Boucher. Many thought that this young team needed a coach with lots of NHL experience. And Roy doesn't have any. He's been coaching in the minors for 8 years and had success, but this is his first NHL gig.

I think this was the call you had to make. Because I think Roy could be hockey's version of Jim Harbaugh.

I think the other coaching candidates were solid. But Roy is that X-factor. He may need some time. But I think that he has the highest upside. He could galvanize this team into something special in a few years. And most importantly, if your goalie becomes lights out, you can beat anyone. And I figure who can coach Varlamov or other goalies better than Roy?

So yeah, I'm excited. Sakic and Roy back together. Let's do this.

In the groove

Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5
Week 2 = 199
Week 3 = 197

I was all excited on Monday when I saw 196.5 and thought this week was going to be more like week 1 than week 2. And then Tuesday it was 197.5. Today I got 197. I'll take it. 

The first week is always an outlier

Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5
Week 2 = 199

I am losing weight

May 1 was day 1.

Week 0 = 205 pounds
Week 1 = 200.5

Royals-Rockies world series. Calling it.

How much is home field worth? (NFL point spreads)

For years, I've heard that home field is worth three points. Occasionally you'll hear 3.5 points. But compared to what?

I wanted to know is home field worth 3 points relative to a neutral field, or relative to an away game?

To me, it makes sense to calculate this relative to a neutral field.

Covers.com just released points spreads for all games weeks 1-16, so I figured we could figure it out.

I wanted to start by looking at some teams not known for a HFA.

Rams
at home vs Cardinals: Rams by 4.5
on road vs Cardinals: pick 'em

at home vs 49ers: 49ers by 4
on road vs 49ers: 49ers by 7.5

Rams average HFA = 2 points (relative to neutral)

Bengals
at home vs Steelers: Bengals by 1
on road vs Steelers: Steelers by 2.5

at home vs Browns: Bengals by 6
on road vs Browns: Bengals by 3

Bengals average HFA = 1.625 points

Texans
at home vs Colts: Texans by 4.5
on road vs Colts: pick'em

at home vs Jags: Texans by 10
on road vs Jags: Texans 4.5

Texans average HFA: 2.5 points

Titans

at home vs Colts: Colts by 1
on road vs Colts: Colts by 4.5

at home vs Jags: Titans by 3.5
on road vs Jags: pick'em

Titans average HFA: 1.75 points


Okay, so far it seems like the fabled HFA is worth 3-3.5 really means relative to an away game. Let's take a look at teams that might have a perceived higher HFA.

Broncos
at home vs Chiefs: Broncos by 7.5
on road vs Chiefs: Broncos by 4

at home vs Chargers: Broncos by 6.5
on road vs Chargers: Broncos by 3

Broncos average HFA: 1.75 points

Packers
at home vs Lions: Packers by 4.5
on road vs Lions: Packers by 1.5

at home vs Vikings: Packers by 4.5
on road vs Vikings: Packers by 1

Packers average HFA = 1.625 points

Seahawks

at home vs Cardinals: Seahawks by 8.5
on road vs Cardinals: Seahawks by 6

at home vs 49ers: Seahawks by 2.5
on road vs 49ers: 49ers by 2.5


Seahawks average HFA = 1.825 points

Chiefs
Broncos = 3.5 point swing
Raiders = 4.5 point swing

Chiefs average HFA = 2

btw, Lions average HFA = 1.75

Conclusion

For these 9 teams, the average HFA in the NFL is 1.87. Double that and you'll get 3.74 which is near the 3.5 points that is thrown around.

But I think it's important to use the number relative to a neutral field, because you can't say that (versus the Raiders for example) that the Chiefs home field advantage is 4.5 points. Because then you're ignoring that the Raiders would have a similar home field advantage.

A quick google search turned up this quote: "So if the odds-makers believe that 2 teams are evenly matched, the home team will almost always be a 3 point favorite." 

I think that sums up conventional wisdom. But that would be a six-point swing, and in the 36 matchups I looked at, there weren't any that high.

Does this really help? I think so.

Let's take a look at week 3: Chiefs at Eagles. Eagles are favored by 3. The Eagles don't play at KC this year. But based on my numbers it seems that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Vegas thinks the Eagles are a bit better than the Chiefs. I would expect a line in KC to be around Chiefs by 1, and a line at a neutral field to be around Eagles by 1.

Does knowing that really help? Perhaps not. But it's something.

That's Fantastic

I hate everything about this. http://youtu.be/9FdnssHlcRk

Kind of crazy that I follow two professional sports teams and both of them have the #1 pick in 2013. It's not a great sign.

Behind the Scenes: Making a Commercial with the Governor

Guy in the middle is John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado.
Guy on the right is a co-worker.

2013 NHL Playoffs Calcutta

It's really even. The teams I wanted were the Penguins, Bruins, Rangers, Senators. I of course wanted the Blackhawks but preferred the Penguins and knew I couldn't get both 1 seeds.

Didn't really want the Ducks, Blues, or Capitals, but it happens. We've got 5 first-round series with skin in the game. Let's dig in.

Only team that I don't have that I wish I did is Chicago, so I'm happy with my picks. I even let Mark have his precious Red Wings. This way, it will be so much sweeter when they lose.

Parenting a newborn, toddler and dog is like an endless attempt to cross a bridge with a goat, wolf, and a cabbage.

Except you can't leave the toddler alone with anyone.

chiefs draft = shit

Really disappointed with this draft.

We have a LT in Albert and we're seemingly going to trade him away. So we use the #1 overall on a replacement. Why not just keep Albert?

Then we draft yet another TE.

And then a RB? A position of strength and depth, for a fumble-prone guy that seems to be a reach.

Barkley probably sucks, but I wish we had some sort of QB prospect. He would have been a top-5 pick a year ago. Nobody really knows if he'll be any good.

But this GM thinks he's solved our QB problems by landing Alex fucking Smith. Really?

When we go 5-11 this year and Smith has more INT than TD, then what?

chiefs 13 in-depth draft analysis

Nobody knows anything about the draft.

I would love for us to trade into the 2nd round and get a QB. Geno Smith would be my choice. I'd take a flier on Barkley or Nassib, even though I don't know anything about them, because I'd rather have prospects than not.

the wife's draft analysis

Me: The Chiefs had the #1 pick and could have taken anyone, and they took a lineman.

Wife: A lineman?!

Me: Yeah.

Wife: What?! Do they think he will be sacking the quarterback on every play?

Me: Protecting the quarterback. Offensive lineman.

Wife: That's even worse.