put up the graphics

 

Lamar Hunt Trophy

The first AFC Championship was in 1970, en route to Super Bowl V. 

And the prize for winning the AFC Championship is the Lamar Hunt Trophy, named after the founder of the AFL, but also the founder and owner of the Chiefs. The only problem?  As of January 1, 2020 the Chiefs had exactly zero Lamar Hunt trophies to speak of. 

I mean the Chargers and Titans had one. The Ravens had two and they've only existed since 1996.

But thanks to a certain someone, the Chiefs have fixed the problem. 

Here are the current standings for AFC Championships since 1970:

Patriots: 11

Steelers, Broncos: 8

Dolphins: 5

Chiefs, Raiders, Bills: 4

Colts, Bengals: 3

Ravens: 2

Titans, Chargers: 1

Jets, Browns, Jags, Texans: 0

So yeah, Tom Brady's contributions are gonna help the Patriots be at the top. He won 9 AFC Titles in 19 seasons in New England. Mahomes has won 4 in 6 seasons. 

Today, the Chiefs won their 4th Lamar Hunt trophy while wearing a patch honoring the life of Norma Hunt, Lamar's widow who herself passed away in June 2023. And in the process, kept the Lamar Hunt trophy out of the hands of a different Lamar.

Chiefs to Super Bowl LVIII

Before I begin, this is not a cherry-picked hot streak. This is the entirety of Mahomes career:

2018: Loss in AFC Championship, Overtime to Patriots

2019: Win in Super Bowl LIV, over 49ers

2020: Loss in Super Bowl LV, to Bucs

2021: Loss in AFC Championship, Overtime to Bengals

2022: Win in Super Bowl LVII, over Eagles

2023: Appearing in Super Bowl LVIII

6 seasons. 4 Super Bowl appearances. 

With Mahomes, the Chiefs have a 66% chance of going to the Super Bowl. 

6 seasons. 14 playoff wins and counting. 

Here are the quarterbacks with more playoff wins than Mahomes: Tom Brady and Joe Montana. 

The floor with Mahomes is overtime in the AFC Championship. That's the WORST it's been in his career. The best is two rings with a chance to go three rings in six seasons.

14-3 in the playoffs. 

This franchise went from 1-10 in the playoffs in the 25 years before Mahomes, to 14-3 in the playoffs with him. 

People like to throw the term "generational quarterback" around a lot. Go back to the list of QBs with more playoff wins. 

Joe Montana born 1956

Tom Brady born 1977

Patrick Mahomes born 1995

This is the list of generational quarterbacks.

- - -

Reid is up to 25 playoff wins, trailing Belichick only by 6. 

- - -

Lamar is now 2-4 in the playoffs. 

His wins were over a 4-seed Titans in the Wild-Card Round and over the 4-seed Texans in the Divisional Round. 

- - -

We're going to 4 Super Bowls in 5 years. There should be a word for that...

- - -

This Super Bowl is being played in Las Vegas.

The Chiefs are 4-0 in this stadium. 

For years, ever since LVIII was announced, Chiefs fans have been talking about how good it would be to win the Super Bowl on the Raiders home field. Now we've got a chance.

championship sunday predictions

AFC

Most likely this is a 3-point game either way. (There's also a chance that it's like Super Bowl LV and Baltimore wins 33-13.) It should come down to the final possession. Chiefs 27-24

NFC

Unfortunately I think the Lions playoff bandwagon runs out of steam on the road. I think the 49ers will be up 28-10 after three quarters. 49ers 31-18

Platinum Trophy Update

Here are my current stats for Playstation Trophies:

But the only thing I pay attention to is how many platinum trophies I've collected. 

Here are the 13 I've earned chronologically, most recent at the top.

So two on the PS3, seven on the PS4, and already four on the PS5 in less than a year of owning it. 

Another way of looking at it would be four before 2020, nine since 2020.

For someone who loves data on their personal life, it's incredible to have such an accurate record of gaming dating back to 2010. 

Also, for the record, Grant actually earned the Spider-Man 2 trophy. Unlike the original, I haven't played the game at all.

- - -

So chronological is great, but I want to see the rarity of each one too. Here they are sorted by how many players have earned the trophy in descending order, starting with the most common. 

Spider-Man 2: 18.1%

Spider-Man: 8.4%

Viewfinder: 7.5%

Assassin's Creed Mirage: 7%

Assassin's Creed II: 5.2%

Control: 4.1%

Tony Hawk HD: 3.5%

Rocket League: 2.6%

Assassin's Creed Syndicate: 2.1%

Far Cry 4: 1.8%

Hitman 3: .8%

Just Cause 4: .3%

Teardown .1%

Playoff Wins

Playoff wins. The one thing that was the most elusive for Chiefs fans for most of my entire life. 

Here's the top 10 QBs sorted by playoff wins. 

Mahomes already more than Favre, Big Ben, Aikman. Will move into tied for 3rd place with Bradshaw/Elway when he wins the next one. In two years or less, he's going to be ahead of Joe Montana. 

That .813 winning record is insane. Even if he loses in Baltimore, he'll still be 1st all-time with .765. 

Okay, hold on for a sec. 

Among QBs with minimum 3 starts:

So Bart Starr is insanely impressive. 5 titles, plus a 9-1 playoff record. If he had more rounds, I'm sure he would have racked up double the wins. 

So when I say Mahomes is all-time winning percentage, I have to qualify either minimum 10 wins, or among QBs with top ten wins. Still. 

So Mahomes 13 wins ranks pretty well among QBs, but what about against coaches, who can coach for 30+ years:

Mahomes is already tied for 7th against coaches. More than Bill Cowher or John Harbaugh.

But what about teams?

Mahomes has more playoff wins than 12 franchises. 

aged like yogurt

Lions Win 2 Playoff Games for First Time in Super Bowl Era

The title sounds wild, but it's underselling it. A month ago, the Lions had exactly ONE playoff win in the Super Bowl era. 

January 5, 1992. 

3 playoff losses in the 35 years before that. 

9 playoff losses in the 32 years to follow that. 

But it's not just the playoff drought. 

The Lions have been playing football since 1934. 

They're 26th in winning percentage with an all-time record of 591-707-34.

No sugar coating it. The Lions have been bad. 

But I know that when you've gone through the darkness, the light is that much brighter. 

The Lions crowd has been absolutely deafening. Their fans are showing up and showing out. And they get to see TWO playoff wins at home. Regardless of what happens on Sunday, that's something they can hold on to and build from. 

- - -

Last year, the 49ers made the NFC Championship game and lost because they didn't have a quarterback that could throw the ball. This year, we've seen that Purdy can't play in the rain. 

My best advice for Lions fans. Start doing a rain dance.

Mahomes to the AFC Championship: 6 for 6

There are stats out there that are amazing. And then they keep happening. 

Here's how each season has ended for Mahomes:

2018: Loss in AFC Championship, Overtime to Patriots

2019: Win in Super Bowl LIV, over 49ers

2020: Loss in Super Bowl LV, to Bucs

2021: Loss in AFC Championship, Overtime to Bengals

2022: Win in Super Bowl LVII, over Eagles

2023: ?

If you're keeping score, the worst outcome the Mahomes Chiefs have had is going to overtime in the AFC Championship and losing. So if the Ravens beat the Chiefs in regulation, that will represent the worst finish for this Chiefs era. 

Every single year that Mahomes has played, the Chiefs are in the AFC Championship. 6 for 6. 

Over the first 5 years with Mahomes, the Chiefs were more likely to go to the Super Bowl than not.

When the Chiefs got to the Super Bowl, they were more likely to win it than lose it.

It was impressive when Mahomes started his career with two AFC Championship appearances. Now he's 6 for 6.

In the 48 AFC Championships before Mahomes, the Chiefs went 1 time.

In the 6 AFC Championships with Mahomes, the Chiefs have gone 6 times. 

Such an odd feeling. On the one hand, my whole life until 6 years ago the Chiefs were a letdown. They found new ways to break my heart in the playoffs each and every time. And now they're reliable winners. So I have both the feeling of trust in Mahomes + Reid, but I'm still not used to this.

- - -

The Mahomes-Kelce duo is now your all-time leader in playoff touchdowns. 

They passed Brady-Gronk and they passed Montana-Rice. 

I remember when the Chiefs drafted Brodie Croyle making jokes that Croyle-Bowe was going to be the new Montana-Rice. Croyle went 0-10 as a starter. But Mahomes-Kelce just surpassed everyone including Montana-Rice for playoff touchdowns.

- - -

We gotta talk about the Bills. 

This post was very memorable.

A Bills fan posted it after the Chiefs beat the Jaguars last year in the Divisional Round. This guy says about Chiefs Kingdom "there isn't a fanbase more uninvited to a party" that still shows up. 

See, the thing is, when your team keeps winning in the playoffs, that's being invited to the party. When you make it to 3 Super Bowls in 4 years, possibly 4 in 5, that's being invited to the party. 

Let's check-in on how the Josh Allen era is going in Buffalo. 

2018: misses playoffs

2019: Lost Wild-Card Round to Texans

2020: Lost AFC Championship to Chiefs 38-24 (blown out in KC)

2021: Lost Divisional Round to Chiefs 42-36 OT (13 second game in KC)

2022: Lost Divisional Round to Bengals 27-10 (blown out at home)

2023: Lost Divisional Round to Chiefs 27-24 (wide right at home)

3 out of last 4 seasons have ended to the Chiefs. 

Of their last 4 playoff losses, 2 were blowouts. 2 were close. The 13-second game and tonight's wide right.

And the last two years, they lost at home. 

And as for that post. Last year, a hobblin ass Mahomes beat the Bengals, the team that blew out the Bills, then won the Super Bowl. This year, that guy was in the stands to see Mahomes get the win tonight. So yeah, I bet he's pretty fuckin tired of the Chiefs. 

- - -

I made this prediction in 2020: 

So let's do a quick check-in for AFC Championship Games that take place since January 1, 2020:

Chiefs: 5

Bengals: 2

Titans/Bills/Ravens: 1

- - - 

While we're here, we might as well look at the Ravens seasons with Lamar:

2018: Lost Wild-Card Round to Chargers

2019: Lost Divisional Round to Titans (choked as 1-seed)

2020: Lost Divisional Round to Bills (17-3)

2021: last in division

2022: Lost Wild-Card Round to Bengals (Lamar missed game to injury)

2023: ?

Not exactly setting the world on fire. Lamar is now 2-3 in the playoffs with a 2020 Wild-Card win over Titans and a win over the Texans yesterday.

To be fair, the Ravens looked great yesterday, particularly their defense. So it wouldn't surprise me at all if Baltimore wins next week. 

- - -

I made this post about AFC Championship QBs in November 2018. 

Let's update the list through January 2024:

Brady: 13

Mahomes: 6

Manning: 5

Roethlisberger: 5

Flacco: 3

Sanchez: 2

Burrow: 2

Stewart: 1

Gannon: 1

McNair: 1

Plummer: 1

Rivers: 1

Luck: 1

Bortles: 1

Tannehill: 1

Allen: 1

Lamar: 1

Peyton Manning played 17 seasons, all in the AFC. He made the AFC title games 5 times, never back to back. 

So going 6 for 6, is uh, pretty good.

- - -

This game featured 5 straight touchdowns. It was 27-24 with 14 minutes to go in the 4th. Nobody could get a stop.

Then the Bills go 3 and out. Plus a fake punt that didn't work. 

Chiefs takeover on Bills 32. First play give it to Pacheco for 29 yards. Now it's first and goal from the 3. Should we give to to Pacheco again? Or give it to Hardman on a sweep who already fumbled on a sweep earlier in the game? As soon they handed it to Hardman I screamed what are you doing. Then it looked like he might score. Then he fumbled through the end zone.

So Josh Allen gets a second chance. 3 and out again. Real punt this time.

The Bills defense forces a punt of their own. 

Josh Allen gets a third chance. On 3rd and 10, he scrambles, fumbles and it's bouncing towards the Chiefs. 

The question will this be a scoop and score or just a Chiefs recovery. And Kincaid reaches it for and knocks it away from the Chiefs and Bills recover. 

So Allen gets a 4th chance. 

It's 1st and 10 from the KC 27. Cook stopped for a 1 yard gain. 

2nd and 9. Instead of getting the ball to a wide open Diggs on a short cross that would have gained 6-8 yards, Allen fires to the end zone but is way off target.

3rd and 9. Chiefs defense gets good pressure, no running lanes, and Allen throws it away to the sideline. 

So yes, the Bills kicker pushed it wide right but the Bills offense had so many chances to get a touchdown.

- - -

Mahomes is now 13-3 in the playoffs. 81% winning percentage in the playoffs, best all-time. 

Reid is up to 24 playoff wins as head coach, 2nd all-time. 7 behind Belichick. 

(Before Mahomes, Reid had 11 playoff wins. So added 13 and counting in 6 seasons. All of a sudden, it's not crazy that in 5 years Reid could pass Belichick for playoff wins, assuming Belichick doesn't start adding 2 per year somewhere.)

- - -

Sunday vs the Ravens will be the 2nd road playoff game for Mahomes. First one went alright. 

The Ravens are favored at home and will be tough. This whole season the Chiefs have not been on the level they were last year. And I've doubted the Ravens all year, and they kept proving me wrong. 

So I'm not making any confident predictions. Let's just hope for a good game and see what happens.

Work Trip to Salt Lake City

I saw Steve Kerr several times, including while he was working out. I also saw Steph Curry with my own eyes, as well as several other NBA players.

We've Been Waiting a Long Time

The latest dispatch out of our Hoagie Middle East division:

Long suffering Lions fan here.  Born in 1983, I literally have no memory of a Lions playoff win.  I remember Barry Sanders, juking defenders and scoring with ease until the playoffs. The defense would just put eight defenders in the box and our QB could never threaten with a passing game.  After Barry retired out of the blue, the Lions were irrelevant.  We’d always take WRs in the top 10 and only one panned out, but then he retired early too.  The Lions had a way of taking the will to compete out of their best players. 

 

At least in college I started getting into fantasy football.  That really saved the NFL for me.  Even from the beginning of the season, until this year, I was more invested in bragging rights over my friends than in the Lions success.  Because at least I had a chance at winning. 

 

We’ve had the 0-16 season, Dan Orlovsky’s safety, and Matt Patricia’s coming out party as one of the great kisses of death in the last 10 years.  Aside from some great Megatron catches, I have no good Lions memories since Barry Sanders running through my childhood. 

 

So when Dan Campbell got hired by Brad Holmes, it was just another coach/GM combo that had promise and was going to fail.  Campbell immediately made headlines about biting people’s kneecaps and we were still jokes.  Lots of losing in the first season and a half.  The Lions were still the same old Lions.  We’re so sad that a majority of fans were happy to trade away Stafford and continued to root for him to win because he didn’t shit on Detroit and the fans.  He played through injuries when he could have quit on us too. 

 

But then we started winning and players seemed happy to play for Detroit.  I have one Lions t-shirt, a retro style one, that I would often wear on Sundays.  It did NOT bring us luck.  But I persevered.  After getting trashed for a bad first round, taking an inside LB and a RB, players that you can usually get for cheap, I figured it’s the same old Lions.  But then the Lions were a trendy favorite, which just made me worry more.  It hurts more to have your hopes dashed than have no hopes at all.  But we were good throughout the year, although the pass defense faltered in the second half. 

 

I have a text chain with my dad (the original Lions fan) and my little brother (who smartly dumped the Lions for the Bears when he was a kid, since we lived in southern Illinois and the Rams were in LA).  When the Lions would blow a game, I’d always write something like, “The Lions really Lion-ed that game” and my dad would respond that at least he made money.  He always bets against the Lions.

 

The refs jobbed us of a win in Dallas which would have given us a chance at the 1-seed or at least the 2-seed, giving us a better chance at hosting two playoff games, should we win.  Instead, we ended up 3, hosting the Rams and Matt Stafford, one of the hottest teams entering the playoffs.  Despite being favored, I was skeptical.  They’re McVay is going to destroy our defense.  Goff sometimes makes terrible decisions, even though he’s been pretty good. 

 

With the game being Sunday night, and the fact that I live in Israel, it meant I would not watch the game live.  I woke up Monday, did not look at my phone at all, took my daughters to kindergarten, and came home to watch the game.  Luckily, I don’t need to leave for work till 9:45.  I called them Schrodinger’s Lions.  I didn’t know if the Lions were dead or alive inside that box.  I pay $200 annually for the complete NFL streaming package.  Red zone channel, regular season, playoffs, games without commercials, highlights, but what I like most about night games is that I can watch the “game in 40”, the game without all of the commercials and time in between plays.  I can watch a full game in about 40 minutes.  Perfect.

 

Lions score first, hold the Rams to a FG, and then score another TD.  We’re up 14-3 and I relax, thinking this is like the Chiefs win where they go up a few scores and never feel threatened all game.  The Lions can’t let me relax for long, though.  The Rams scored after every one of our scores it seemed like.  Most of the game the Lions managed to push it back to a two-score lead, until the second half, I think.  It’s kind of a blur.  The Lions couldn’t move the ball.  The Rams weren’t doing much either, except Puka Nacua couldn’t be tackled.  Finally, the Rams had the ball and a chance to take the lead, but they didn’t.  And then we couldn’t score.  And then the Rams had another chance to take the lead, but just settled for a FG.  The Lions just could never stretch the lead again late in the game.  The Lions were going to Lion again.  But Amon-Ra St. Brown, the guy who has been clutch all year, came through at the right times.  When we got the ball back with four or five minutes left, the Rams with one TO, it was like we’d run, run, pass for a 1^st down and repeat.  The clock just kept ticking and we moved the chains just enough.

 

When the Sun God caught the ball for the last first down, after the two-minute time out, I put both fists in the air in victory formation.  The seal had been broken.  The Cowboys got humiliated at home, meaning we host the winner of the Bucs-Eagles, neither of which seem as scary as going to Dallas.  Who would have thought that Detroit could host two playoff games in the same year?  Somehow we didn’t embarrass ourselves on national television, like we do every year on Thanksgiving. 

 

I slept in my Lions shirt that night the Lions were playing.  Now I’ll wear it again Sunday.  Maybe it’ll turn into a lucky shirt.  Stranger things have happened.  Maybe the Packers continue their hot streak and beat the 49ers, while we beat the Bucs.  Maybe the Lions could host three playoff games in the same season? 

 

Lions-Bucs game is at 10pm local time.  I’ll watch live.  There’s a part of me that just wants to focus on the game, not have to stress during time outs, commercial breaks, and halftime.  There’s a part that liked Schrodinger’s Lions and being in my own bubble.  Now I have to experience the game with the rest of the world, checking Twitter to see if others think the refs screwed up the call and texting friends and family.  But at least I get to see another Lions playoff game.  If we lose, as favorites at home, I’ll be disappointed.  I’ll only accept a loss to the 49ers or to a team from the AFC.  But at least now I’ve got the memory of us winning a playoff game.

If the Chiefs make it...

Look, the chances that the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl are still slim. If you bet $100, you'd win $330. 

But I just realized how good the storylines are for the Super Bowl. 

4. Chiefs-Bucs: Rematch of Super Bowl 55. It would also be Mahomes vs Mayfield, a rematch of a record setting college game in 2016.

3. Chiefs-49ers: Rematch of Super Bowl 54. I don't need to beat the 49ers again, but I know they'd want revenge on KC. 

2. Chiefs-Packers: Rematch of Super Bowl 1. I've always thought the NFL would go nuts to have this rematch.

1. Chiefs-Lions: Not a Super Bowl rematch but a rematch of the Season Opener. And it would be a real David vs Goliath if it happened and the whole country would be rooting for the Lions.

Lions Win First Playoff Game in 32 Years and Other Notes from Wild-Card Weekend

As of January 1, 2016 I had never seen a team of mine advance in the playoffs. 8 years later and I've seen the Chiefs win 13 playoff games and 2 Super Bowls. 8 years later and I've seen the Avalanche win 7 playoff series and a Stanley Cup. So I had a long drought and since then I've been spoiled. 

But it was 8 years ago that I was going nuts for a Chiefs wild-card win. And I posted this graphic.

It shows the last playoff win for each NFL team, and it was updated through the end of the 2014-2015 season. There were 5 NFL teams that hadn't won a game since the 90s. 

Bengals 1990

Lions 1991

Chiefs 1993

Browns 1994

Bills 1995

And then over the last several years, these teams started removing themselves from the list. The Chiefs, Bills, Browns and Bengals had all won a playoff game. Leaving just the Lions. 

In 2018, 2019, and 2020 the Lions finished last in their division under Matt Patricia. 

In 2021, Dan Campbell took over the Lions and promised to eat kneecaps and Ws. They finished last in their division again. 

In 2022, the Lions started 1-6. It sure seemed like Campbell was a bust and Goff was not the answer. It seemed like yet another rebuild was in order for Detroit. 

Then a funny thing happened. They got good. Like all of a sudden. They went 8-2 down the stretch. They beat Rodgers in his last game as a Packer and prevented Green Bay from making the playoffs. 

The Lions came in as a preseason hot pick and it actually panned out. They went 12-5 and won the NFC North for the first time. 

And now they just won a playoff game. 

That's a stretch of 21-7 from a team that looked ready to blow it up. Now they're favored by 6 at home in the Divisional Round. One game away from the NFC Championship game. (And there is absolutely a world in which the Packers will be coming to Detroit for that game.)

This is literally the first year the Lions have ever hosted multiple playoff games. 

The Lions are peaking in the Super Bowl era. 

So yeah, if you see any Lions fans, give 'em a high five. It's been a long time coming but they deserve it. 

- - - 

Here's up to the minute odds to win, reach the Super Bowl. 

Lions are just 3-1 to make the Super Bowl, 2nd best odds in the NFC. 

A Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl is down to 16-1. Was 22-1 when both teams were 5-1 earlier in the season. 

Lions are more likely than Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl. (Chiefs are more likely to win the Super Bowl.)

- - -

Here's my updates to QB rankings taking into account Wild-Card Weekend, but trying not to overreact to one game:

(Also, keeping bold as active in the playoffs.)

1. Mahomes

2. Allen

3. Burrow

4. Lamar

5. Hurts

6. Stroud

7. Herbert

8. Purdy

9. Goff

10. Tua

11. Dak

12. Lawrence

13. Cousins

14. Love

15. Stafford

16. Rodgers

17. Fields

18. Kyler

19. Richardson

20. Mayfield

21. Geno 

22. Russell

23. Carr

24. Flacco

I think you have to keep the top 5 intact. But Stroud has really come on strong. 

Goff solidified his placement as a top-10 qb. Dak moved down a tier. Regular season Dak is top 10 but playoff Dak is not in the top 15. 

In the same vein, warm-weather Tua is top 10 but cold-weather Tua is not. The Dolphins as a whole were not healthy, but it does make you think that the Dolphins really needed the #1 seed and home field advantage to win in the playoffs. 

6 of the 10 best QBs made it to the final 8 teams alive. 

In less than a week, we get the #1 vs #2 matchup and it's finally in Buffalo. 

not bad

Ironman Fantasy Football - Season 3 Recap

I won the first two seasons of Ironman, so you know Mark was hungry to eat a Ironman W.

Here were our week 1 starters:

I took the first week but Mark answered right back in week 2:

His stack of Cousins/Jefferson was strong with the Vikings QB outscoring Mahomes. But there was a problem. In week 2, Mark lost his Chubb to a season-ending injury. 

All of a sudden, he was relying on Dalvin Cook and he wasn't getting much action on the Jets because Breece Hall was back and healthy. I took the next two weeks and was now up 3-1. 

Week 5 and Mark got the win! But he lost Justin Jefferson to a big injury.

Heading into Week 8, I was up 5-2 but it was far from over. 

Week 8 and and Mark got the win! But he lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury. 

In Week 9, I beat him by almost 50.

I'm up 6-3 and I only need 10 wins to clinch the title.

Week 10 is a close one. Mark's players finish with 4.5 points more than mine. It's at this point that I need to reveal that we introduced a new rule this year. Ironman coaching. We each picked a team in the preseason and you would get 7 points if your team's coach covered their spread in that week's game.

I picked the 49ers. Mark picked the Saints. Both were favorites in Week 10. 49ers covered and Saints didn't. 

So ESPN has this down as a loss for me. 

But it's actually a win. 105.5-103. 

With no Chubb, no Cousins, no Jefferson, the next three weeks didn't go so good for Mark. 

At least he won Week 13 though, right? Nope. 49ers covered and Saints didn't again. That win in Week 13 was enough to put me over the top. Up 10-3 there was no way for Mark to comeback. 

In perfect timing, Justin Jefferson returned to the Vikings in Week 14.

But it didn't help. We played out the rest of the season and Mark only added one more win.

Week 17 was worth double.

So I finished the season up 15-4. Hang another banner in the rafters.

But one question remains...what would have happened if Chubb, Cousins and Jefferson had stayed healthy? 

Obviously injuries are part of the challenge. That's why it's called Ironman. But still...what if?

So let's do a little Revisionist History. 

Last year Chubb averaged 15 points per game and put up 14 in Week 1. So we'll be fair and say he would continue to average 15 ppg this year. 

Cousins was averaging 22.5 ppg and Goff averaged 20 ppg. 

Jefferson averaged 16 ppg. 

So I'll go week by week and assume Chubb's 15 instead of Mark's lowest RB, Jefferson's 16 instead of Mark's lowest WR, and add 3 points in any game that Cousins missed. 

Starting with Week 3, here are the losses for Mark that would have turned into wins:

Week 3 - yes

Week 4 - no

Week 5 - already a Mark win

Week 6 - no, just barely (Saints cover would have been enough)

Week 7 - yes

Week 8 - already a Mark win

Week 9 - yes, just barely (Cousins instead of Goff on bye, plus Chubb/Jeff turns a 49 point loss into a 3 point win)

Week 10 - yes, easy win

Week 11 - no

Week 12 - no

Week 13 - yes, easy win

Week 14 - yes

Week 15 - already a Mark win

Week 16 - no

Week 17 - yes, worth 2x

Week 18 - no

Mark finished with 4 actual wins. With his players healthy, he would be projected to flip 6 weeks, including week 17. For a total of 11. 

According to this, Mark would have been up 9-7 headed into Week 17. And Mark's healthy players would been enough to flip the title.

- - -

Of course, all of this assumes that you're getting the average every week. In reality players boom and bust. so the Week 9 flip was no guarantee. And the Week 17 game would have been close too. Plus, every team gets some injuries. Mine were minor this year (Engram, Khalil Herbert, Skyy Moore) but even if Mark had just one of those big three injuries, that might have been enough for him to lose the title.