Here were our week 1 starters:
I took the first week but Mark answered right back in week 2:
His stack of Cousins/Jefferson was strong with the Vikings QB outscoring Mahomes. But there was a problem. In week 2, Mark lost his Chubb to a season-ending injury.
All of a sudden, he was relying on Dalvin Cook and he wasn't getting much action on the Jets because Breece Hall was back and healthy. I took the next two weeks and was now up 3-1.
Week 5 and Mark got the win! But he lost Justin Jefferson to a big injury.
Heading into Week 8, I was up 5-2 but it was far from over.
Week 8 and and Mark got the win! But he lost Kirk Cousins to a season-ending injury.
In Week 9, I beat him by almost 50.
I'm up 6-3 and I only need 10 wins to clinch the title.
Week 10 is a close one. Mark's players finish with 4.5 points more than mine. It's at this point that I need to reveal that we introduced a new rule this year. Ironman coaching. We each picked a team in the preseason and you would get 7 points if your team's coach covered their spread in that week's game.
I picked the 49ers. Mark picked the Saints. Both were favorites in Week 10. 49ers covered and Saints didn't.
So ESPN has this down as a loss for me.
But it's actually a win. 105.5-103.
With no Chubb, no Cousins, no Jefferson, the next three weeks didn't go so good for Mark.
At least he won Week 13 though, right? Nope. 49ers covered and Saints didn't again. That win in Week 13 was enough to put me over the top. Up 10-3 there was no way for Mark to comeback.
In perfect timing, Justin Jefferson returned to the Vikings in Week 14.
But it didn't help. We played out the rest of the season and Mark only added one more win.
Week 17 was worth double.
So I finished the season up 15-4. Hang another banner in the rafters.
But one question remains...what would have happened if Chubb, Cousins and Jefferson had stayed healthy?
Obviously injuries are part of the challenge. That's why it's called Ironman. But still...what if?
So let's do a little Revisionist History.
Last year Chubb averaged 15 points per game and put up 14 in Week 1. So we'll be fair and say he would continue to average 15 ppg this year.
Cousins was averaging 22.5 ppg and Goff averaged 20 ppg.
Jefferson averaged 16 ppg.
So I'll go week by week and assume Chubb's 15 instead of Mark's lowest RB, Jefferson's 16 instead of Mark's lowest WR, and add 3 points in any game that Cousins missed.
Starting with Week 3, here are the losses for Mark that would have turned into wins:
Week 3 - yes
Week 4 - no
Week 5 - already a Mark win
Week 6 - no, just barely (Saints cover would have been enough)
Week 7 - yes
Week 8 - already a Mark win
Week 9 - yes, just barely (Cousins instead of Goff on bye, plus Chubb/Jeff turns a 49 point loss into a 3 point win)
Week 10 - yes, easy win
Week 11 - no
Week 12 - no
Week 13 - yes, easy win
Week 14 - yes
Week 15 - already a Mark win
Week 16 - no
Week 17 - yes, worth 2x
Week 18 - no
Mark finished with 4 actual wins. With his players healthy, he would be projected to flip 6 weeks, including week 17. For a total of 11.
According to this, Mark would have been up 9-7 headed into Week 17. And Mark's healthy players would been enough to flip the title.
- - -
Of course, all of this assumes that you're getting the average every week. In reality players boom and bust. so the Week 9 flip was no guarantee. And the Week 17 game would have been close too. Plus, every team gets some injuries. Mine were minor this year (Engram, Khalil Herbert, Skyy Moore) but even if Mark had just one of those big three injuries, that might have been enough for him to lose the title.
torture
ReplyDelete