As a petty Chiefs fan who wants Mahomes to be the clear-cut best QB of his generation without even an argument, I don't really want Lamar or Josh Allen to win the Super Bowl. From a pure pettiness aspect, at least one of them will fall short of the Super Bowl, and even if one of them makes it, there's a good chance they lose to the 49ers.
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The 14-team playoff field started in 2020-21. So this is year four of the current format.
Here are the Super Bowl teams by seeds for the first three years:
Year One: AFC 1, NFC 5
Year Two: AFC 4, NFC 4
Year Three: AFC 1, NFC 1
So limited sample size, but so-far this system gives the 1 seed a 50-50 shot of making it. In the AFC 1 seeds have been 2/3 to make it, NFC only 1/3.
Both one seeds to make it, only 1/3.
No one seeds to make it, 1/3.
One of the one seeds to make it, 1/3.
Right now, it seems like 49ers and Ravens are almost a shoo-in, but history says it's more likely that one makes it and one doesn't.
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I think the Cowboys will win and I hope the Lions win. That will setup a Detroit at Dallas fun Divisional round of the Thanksgiving opponents.
Eagles/Bucs are both ass and will get crushed by 49ers.
49ers will host the NFC title game and I think they get by Detroit or Dallas. But Dallas always chokes in the Divisional Round. So if the Lions can put together two wins and make a NFC title game, that'll be serious progress for them.
Of course, the Rams are hot so there's a world where they advance and I wouldn't put it past Dallas to choke in the first round, so who knows. But 49ers are the best team, they'll be rested, healthy (in theory) and at home. Seems like an easy path to Super Bowl LVIII.
The greatest Chiefs game of my lifetime will always be Super Bowl LIV, and that day the 49ers were my mortal enemies. But I've watched the highlight DVD and Kittle has a quote that he'll be back, he's not going to let this loss define him. So if the 49ers win it all, I'll be happy for them. (Also, they were my preseason pick and my Calcutta team, and it blocks Lamar/Allen so this is the best case scenario for me)
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It's hard to be objective about the AFC side of things.
The Chiefs have not been on their game.
I've never believed in the Ravens, and they've proved me wrong all year.
The Bills are back from the dead and on a winning streak, and they've yet to put it all together.
The Browns are a fun story and I could see them beating the Ravens, but I can't see them in the Super Bowl.
Based on recent performance, I basically have to rule out KC and Miami (even though betting against Mahomes is inherently stupid) so that leaves Bills and Ravens as best teams to represent the AFC. Both Lamar and Allen have poor playoff track records, so one could get their monkey off their back and get to the Super Bowl, and one will have another season thinking about how close they got. Despite everything I said about one seeds not making it, I think the Ravens have the best chance.
Plus, you know, the whole purple and red logo thing.
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My NFL preview wasn't as accurate as previous installments.
In the AFC, I only got 3 out of 7 playoff teams correct, thanks to the Jags choking down the stretch. Although I did correctly predict Buffalo would be the 2 seed and Steelers would be the 7 seed.
I was right about Patriots being the worst team in the division and right to be skeptical about Deshaun Watson. I didn't see a Lamar MVP season coming but was right that Russ Wilson would be better.
In the NFC, I got 4 out of 7 teams correct, nailing the 49ers as the top seed, Cowboys as NFC East Winners, and Eagles as the 5 seed wild card team. My other wild-card teams were Saints and Seahawks who were in it to the end and even won in week 18 but it wasn't enough.
I was completely right on the NFC East and completely wrong on the NFC South.
Generally I was decently accurate overall, but not super dialed in on playoff teams.
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