So that's 8 Check-Ins where I really sorted teams. I thought it would be fun to go back and see how teams performed, how I performed, see what can be learned from this exercise. I'll go in reverse order of league finish.
Team by Team: Non-Playoff Teams
Panthers: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.
Commanders: They were in the middle in Week 2 at 2-0 but then crossed-off in Weeks 5 and 7. Back to in the hunt at Week 9, before being crossed-off in Week 11, 14 and 15.
Cardinals: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.
Patriots: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.
Chargers: In the Middle through week 9, Crossed-off in Week 11 and remained crossed-off.
Giants: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.
Titans: In the Middle through week 7, Crossed-off in Week 9 and remained crossed-off.
Vikings: In the Middle Week 2, Crossed-off for Weeks 3, 5, 7. In the Middle for the rest of the season.
Bears: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.
Falcons: In the middle for the first 7 check-ins, finally crossed off in Week 15.
Jets: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for 7 check-ins. The exception was in week 9 when they lived in the nether space between Crossed-Off and In The Middle.
Raiders: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.
Broncos: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off until Week 11. In the Middle for Weeks 11 and 14. Crossed-off for good in Week 15.
Bengals: In the Middle for weeks 1-7. Playoffs for Week 9. Then they lost Burrow. Cross-off for Week 11. But then back to in the middle for weeks 14 and 15.
Seahawks: In the Middle for the whole season until Crossed-off in Week 15.
Saints: In the Middle for the whole season.
Jaguars: In the Middle for the first three check-ins. Playoff Team from Week 7 to Week 14. Down to In the Middle for Week 15.
Colts: Crossed-off Week 2. In the Middle through Week 7. Nether space week 9. In the Middle rest of the way.
Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, 2 teams received the Playoff Team designation. The Bengals and then they lost Burrow. And the Jags who choked down the stretch.
Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, I crossed-off 16 at one point. The two teams that I never crossed-off: Saints and Jaguars.
5 teams were correctly crossed-off from the very beginning and I never wavered on.
Team by Team: Playoff Teams
Bucs: In the middle through week 7. Crossed-off in Week 9. In the Middle in 11 and 14. Playoff team in 15.
Packers: In the middle through week 5. Crossed-off in Week 7 and 9. In the middle in 11. Playoff team in 14. Crossed-off in 15.
Texans: Crossed-off in week 2. In the middle in week 3 and for the rest of the season.
Rams: In the middle through week 7. Crossed-off in Week 9. In the middle in 11. Playoff team in 14 and 15.
Steelers: In the middle the whole season through week 14. Finally crossed-off in Week 15.
Bills: Playoff team through week 7. In the middle from Week 9 on.
Chiefs: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.
Browns: In the middle for all 8 check-ins.
Eagles: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.
Dolphins: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.
Cowboys: Playoff team in 7 out of 8 check-ins. Were in the middle in week 3 after their loss to the Cardinals.
Lions: In the middle for 2 and 3. Playoff team from week 5 through the rest of the season.
49ers: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.
Ravens: Playoff team in 6 out of 8 check-ins. In the middle in weeks 3 and 5.
5 out of 14 playoff teams got crossed-off at one point. Whoops.
11 out of 14 playoff teams got called a playoff team at one point. Exceptions: Texans, Steelers, Browns.
Teams I crossed off at one point: 21 (max should have been 18)
Teams I designated as playoff teams at one point: 13 (out of 14-team field)
- - -
Week 2 Evaluation
10 teams were crossed-off. 9 missed the playoffs. (Texans)
7 teams were playoff teams. All 7 made the playoffs.
16 out of 17 correct after Week 2.
Week 3 Evaluation
9 teams were crossed-off. 9 missed the playoffs.
5 teams were playoff teams. All 5 made the playoffs.
14 out of 14 correct in Week 3.
Week 5 Evaluation
10 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs.
7 teams were playoff teams. All 7 made the playoffs.
17 out of 17 correct in Week 5.
Week 7 Evaluation
11 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. (Packers)
9 teams were playoff teams. 8 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)
18 out of 20 correct in Week 7.
Week 9 Evaluation
11 teams were crossed-off. 8 missed the playoffs. (Packers, Rams, Bucs)
9 teams were playoff teams. 8 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)
17 out of 20 correct in Week 9.
Week 11 Evaluation
11 teams were crossed-off. 11 missed the playoffs.
8 teams were playoff teams. 7 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)
18 out of 19 correct in Week 11.
Week 14 Evaluation
10 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs.
10 teams were playoff teams. 9 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)
19 out of 20 correct in Week 14.
Week 15 Evaluation
15 teams were crossed-off. 13 missed the playoffs. (Steelers, Packers)
9 teams were playoff teams. 9 made the playoffs.
22 out of 24 correct in Week 15.
- - -
This is so eye-opening. If you just look at the team-by-team, there's so much variance. It's up and down. It feels like it's impossible to get a grasp on a team.
But then if you look at how I did by week, and only focus on playoff vs cross-off, it's actually wild.
In any given week, I'm close to 95% accurate, and that started immediately in weeks 2 and 3. At the end of the season, there's no value to be had...But knowing 16 out of 17 teams futures in week 2? You can easily bet teams to make playoffs or miss playoffs, and even if a team is +250 or whatever, you're going to come out of ahead of you can go 16 out of 17.
That is pretty incredible. Every week you should put $1 future on all of your playoff teams. Think about how rich you'll be.
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