Go Off Travis Kelce

Super Bowl LVII Odds and Ends

Switching Teams

Absolutely wild that MVS spent four seasons in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers, and was like, you know to get to the Super Bowl I need to switch teams. And it worked!

Juju spent five seasons with the Steelers. Comes to the Chiefs and makes the Super Bowl his first year. 

If I'm a NFL player, I'm looking at them and calling my agent to see how I can get to Kansas City. 

Tyreek took the bag (no shame) but is now looking at the Pro Bowl, not the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl Champions by NFL Season

2017: Eagles

2018: Patriots

2019: Chiefs

2020: Bucs

2021: Rams

2022: Eagles vs Chiefs

After seeing the Patriots win in 2014, 2016, 2018, (plus a Brady win in 2020), there's going to be a new team atop the most successful recent team rankings.

Let me expand on this idea a little bit...

Multiple-Title Championship Belt

(Yes, I know this sounds like a Simmons bit. I do not care.)

Green Bay won Super Bowls 1 and 2, so they were the first to hold it. 

Miami won 7 and 8, so they took the belt for most recent multiple titles. 

The Steelers took the belt with 9 and 10, and then extended it with 13 and 14. The Raiders won 11 and 15, but it doesn't count because 11 was not more recent than the Steelers 13-14.

But then the Raiders won 18, combined with 15, to take the Belt.

Then the 49ers paired 19 with 16.

Washington had 17 and 22.

49ers retook with 23 and extended with 24.

Cowboys went 27, 28 and 30.

Broncos went 32 and 33.

Here come the Patriots. 36, 38 and 39.

Steelers came back with 40 and 43.

Giants had 42 and 46.

And then the Patriots reclaimed the belt that they still hold by winning 49, 51 and 53.

But that belt will be changing hands on February 12 to either the Chiefs or Eagles.

Redemption at Arrowhead: Chiefs Advance to Super Bowl LVII

At so many points, it seemed like one team had all the momentum and then it would flip again, back and forth down to the wire. With a minute to go I thought the Bengals were going to win by 3, yet again.

The Chiefs were up 13-3 with the ball after intercepting Burrow. For the next hour, it was all Bengals, as they tied it up at 13-13. Chiefs immediately respond with a 77-yard touchdown drive including a successful challenge to turn a 4th and 1 into a first down. 

With 1 minute to go in the 3rd, Chiefs were driving up 20-13. They were in Bengals territory, looking to take a two-score lead. Disaster strikes. The ball slips out of Mahomes hand. Bengals get the ball and score. 20-20. 

Chiefs are now so depleted from injuries that they can't get across midfield even when gifted a mulligan, and they punt it away. With 7 minutes to go, the Chiefs rookies combine for a tipped interception. 

The Chiefs drive stalls at the Bengals 39 and they punt it away. It seemed like such a waste. But they were playing the field position game and trusting their defense. 

Bengals take over with 2:30 to go on their own 6. If Burrow drives down the field and they kick a game-winning field goal, then all of this becomes reality:

• They are in back-to-back Super Bowls.
• Burrow goes to 4-0 vs Mahomes, Bengals 4-game winning streak over Chiefs. 
• Joe Burrow I think becomes QB1 in the league. He may not have the MVPs, but by dominating Mahomes and two straight Super Bowl appearances (and no fierce NFC competition) I think this is true. 
• Bengals are 0-3 in the Super Bowl but would have another shot at the franchise's first title. 
• And they drop the Chiefs to 2-3 in AFC Title Games at home. 
• Arrowhead really starts to feel like Burrowhead.

Bengals convert a 3rd and 16 and it feels like the gut punch is coming. 

But with 41 seconds left, Chris Jones sacks Burrow on 3rd and 8. Jones starts waving goodbye. Romo is talking about that sack putting them in the Super Bowl. 

But I'm staring at the scoreboard. It's tied 20-20. There's 41 seconds left and they're punting from the CIN 28. Chiefs are depleted and have gone fumble-punt-punt on their last three drives.

And then they show that Skyy Moore is back to receive the punt. I freak out. The guy is a rookie and has muffed THREE punts this year. But Toney is out. Hardman is out. So Skyy Moore it is. 

All I can think about is him muffing this punt and the Bengals get the ball in field goal range. 

Cue Jeff Daniels in Dumb and Dumber: "Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any [muffer], you go and do something like this... and TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!"

Skyy catches it cleanly while backpedalling to the KC 18, then explodes up the right sideline going out of bounds at the KC 47. 29 yards. (Shades of the rookie Hardman turning the playoff game vs Texans around with a huge return...where the Chiefs would go on to win the Super Bowl.)

But it's a cold night in Arrowhead. Feels like four degrees. So Butker's range is not 55-60. Chiefs need to get it under a 50 yarder. That means at least the CIN 32. Which means they need 21 yards. 30 seconds, one timeout.

Pacheco for 6. Timeout.

Incomplete.

Brings up 3rd down from the CIN 47. 17 seconds. No timeouts. Need 4 yards for the first down. But 15 for field goal range. So, so, so easily could send this game to overtime. 

3 receivers run routes. 7 initial blockers. 2 of the Chiefs blockers chip and then release for routes.

Bengals rushing four, dropping 7 into coverage. 

Mahomes escapes the pocket. Has a chance to throw it to Noah Gray, but instead directs traffic, and fresh off a one-week-old high ankle sprain, is scrambling for the first down. Makes it to the CIN 42 out of bounds with 8 seconds. (Crucial that he got out of bounds since KC had no timeouts.) Secures the first down but still 10 yards away from a 50-yard attempt with no timeouts and only 8 seconds left. 

It's going to be dicey. 

Except it's not. Ossai pushes Mahomes blatlantly out of bounds. 15 yards. 

Harrison Butker lines up for a 45-yarder in freezing cold temperatures. The guy who was missing extra points and field goals down the home stretch. 

Knocks it clean through and cue the confetti. 

- - -

So all that good stuff that could have happened for the Bengals. Strike all of that. 

Here's what actually happened. They got to the Super Bowl and lost and then didn't have enough to get back. Burrow has one year left on his rookie deal. Good luck keeping multiple stud receivers once Burrow gets paid. If I was a Bengals fan, I'd be pretty damn upset about not winning the Super Bowl last year when they had the chance. 

Instead, all that good stuff happened for KC. 

Before Mahomes, I had never seen the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. With him, they're there at home every year. (Those last two sentences combined are the most insane stat I know.)

5 Straight AFC Championships at Arrowhead.

Three times in 5 years, the fans got to see a confetti celebration and the Lamar Hunt Trophy presented to Clark Hunt. Three times in 5 years, opposing teams learned you don't really want to have to go through Arrowhead. 

The two times the Chiefs lost in the AFC Championship were both in Overtime. So that's the floor with Mahomes through five entire seasons. AFC Championship loss in overtime at minimum with 3 Super Bowl Appearances in 5 seasons.

Super Bowl 54: Chiefs are there

Super Bowl 55: Chiefs are there

Super Bowl 56: minor blip, Chiefs lost in overtime in AFC Title Game

Super Bowl 57: Chiefs are there

No more Bengals streak. Get out of here with Burrow 4-0 vs Mahomes. The Chiefs have solidified their claim as the AFC's best team. 

- - -

For me, this was all about REDEMPTION. 

So, so happy for Skyy Moore. I'm sure I wasn't the only fan scared to see him back there. Redemption for Reid and Toub for trusting Moore, giving him so many reps and faith. 

Redemption for Butker after having his worst season. Dude was 5/5 on 3 field goals and 2 xp. Needed every single one. Clutch.

How about Playoff Frank Clark.

How about MVS?! All season he averaged under 2.5 catches a game, 40 yards a game, and only scored twice. Tonight: 6 for 116 and caught a laser beam TD. When the pickings are slim, he lead the team in receiving.

And Mahomes. If he didn't pull it out at the end. All anyone would talk about was the 3rd quarter fumble. After watching Brock Purdy pull himself after getting knocked on the wrist, we just saw this dude grit his way through scrambling on a high ankle sprain. Throwing to nobodies and a triple-covered Kelce. 

Not bad for your first 5 seasons. 

- - -

The last AFC Championship the Chiefs won, they beat Buffalo by 14. 

Before that, the Chiefs beat the Titans by 11. 

This was the first time the Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl by winning a game that came down to the wire. 

I've seen them lose two close ones, now I got to shout "We're going to the Super Bowl" out of genuine shock/awe/celebration. 

I know what it feels like to win and lose a Super Bowl. And I have no idea what will happen in two weeks. But I'm sure not taking this for granted. 

All the other AFC teams spent a billion dollars trying to dethrone the Chiefs and here we are. 

Super Bowl 57. Super Bowl LVII.

We started our season in Arizona and now we're ending it there. 

Hmmm...opened as a two point underdog. I like that. 

HC Sportsbook - Week 3

Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN

$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS

$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $286.36

Week 2 Bet Recap

$100 on 49ers -4 WIN

$100 on Bengals +5.5 WIN

$50 on Jags +8.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $477.27

So far I'm 5-1, the only loss being believing in the fraud Bills.

Invested: $500

Currently: $763.63

Last week I was really confident. This week is quite a bit harder.

Week 3 Bets

$100 on Under 46.5 in Eagles/49ers

$50 on all players to score TD: CMC, Chase, Kelce, AJ Brown at +1640

I'm going to save the other $100 for the Super Bowl.

What's At Stake? Conference Championship Edition

There's a lot on the line on Sunday. Let's go team-by-team. 

Cincinnati Bengals

If they win on Sunday, they are in back-to-back Super Bowls.

Burrow goes to 4-0 vs Mahomes, Bengals 4-game winning streak over Chiefs. 

Joe Burrow I think becomes QB1 in the league. He may not have the MVPs, but by dominating Mahomes and two straight Super Bowl appearances (and no fierce NFC competition) I think this is true. 

Bengals are 0-3 in the Super Bowl but would have another shot at the franchise's first title. 

If they lose, they would start feeling snake-bit, that they don't have enough to get over the final hump. They'd be regretting how they missed their chance in last year's Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs

If they win on Sunday, that makes 3 Super Bowl appearances in 4 seasons. With the one exception being an overtime loss in last year's AFC title game. 

They exorcise the demons of the Bengals/Burrow hold over them. 

A shot for many coaches and players to get to 2 rings, which really becomes rarified air. 

If they lose, hosting 5 AFC Championship games but only going 2-3 doesn't feel that good. 

- - -

Okay, so that's what at stake for Sunday...but what about the Super Bowl legacy? One of these four will be written. 

Bengals

Joe Burrow leads Cinci to its first ever Super Bowl title. In the process, proved he owns Mahomes and the Chiefs and possibly gets revenge on the 49ers for the previous Super Bowl losses. Get to write themselves as a true underdog success story. Build Burrow a statue.

49ers

Shanahan gets to move on from 28-3. Kittle and Bosa get revenge/redemption from losing Super Bowl LIV. Purdy becomes a 10-0 Super Bowl Champion rookie. Gets the best Mr. Irrelevant trophy forever. 

Eagles

Sirianni wins the Super Bowl in his 2nd season as a Head Coach. Becomes the next McVay in terms of young prestige coach. Hurts stakes his claim as elite QB and MVP candidate. Jason Kelce wins his 2nd ring. Two titles for the Eagles in six years. It's not a dynasty, but they become the most successful team of the last six years. 

Chiefs

Mahomes wins his second league MVP and second Super Bowl at 27. Andy Reid joins the list of multi-ring Coaches. Two for Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill seems less and less part of the winning equation. Two titles for the Chiefs in four years. They become the gold standard for the league, the team that every other team is chasing.

It all sounds like a fairy tale. One of these will happen. Three will not.

Arrowhead Invitational

Any time you can do something good that's never been done before, that's a pretty good feeling.

5 years of Mahomes on the Chiefs. 5 years of hosting the AFC Championship at Arrowhead. 

What's wilder is how rare getting to host one is for the Chiefs. The AFC Championship was created in 1970. From 1970 to 2017, the Chiefs got to be in exactly one of those 47 games. 1993 on the road in Buffalo and they lost 30-13. 

The team with the saddest AFC Championship resume pairs Reid with Mahomes and earns the right to host it five years in a row. It's insane. 

LOOK AT THIS LIST. That was current as of November 2018. 

Peyton Manning made the AFC Championship 5 times in 18 seasons. He was an automatic first-ballot Hall of Famer that the committee spent 13 seconds discussing his enshrinement. 

Mahomes is now 5 appearances in 5 seasons. 

Considering what being a Chiefs was like for my whole life, it's really hard to wrap my head around this. All I can do is be incredibly thankful. And support every product that Mahomes advertises. 

Andy Reid is #2 in playoff wins and next year will become #4 in all wins. Absolutely a Mount Rushmore coach. And KC is where he became a champion. You gotta love it.

The Super Bowl Possibilites

Four Possible Super Bowl Matchups

Chiefs vs Eagles (Andy Reid vs old team, Kelce vs Kelce)

Chiefs vs 49ers (rematch of Super Bowl LIV)

Bengals vs Eagles (Ohio vs Pennsylvania)

Bengals vs 49ers (rematch of Super Bowl XVI and XXIII)

If I had to rank those storylines it would be:

1. Chiefs vs Eagles

2. Bengals vs 49ers

3. Chiefs vs 49ers

4. Bengals vs Eagles

How would it affect our Calcutta

Chiefs over Eagles = Mark win

Eagles over Chiefs = Dave win

Chiefs over 49ers = Mark big win

49ers over Chiefs = Mark big win

Bengals over Eagles = Dave win

Eagles over Bengals = Dave win

Bengals over 49ers = Mark win

49ers over Bengals = Mark win

buffaLo biLLs

Where to begin with the Buffalo Bills?

Let's start with that they were the most overhyped team I can remember. 

Almost everyone at The Ringer had the Bills as the Super Bowl pick. Josh Allen for MVP too.

But it wasn't only The Ringer. NFL.com writers were drinking the Bills kool-aid.

The Bills were so legendary, a hot topic in September was if they would go undefeated:

Let's take a look at how the Josh Allen era has gone for them in the playoffs:

2019: Wild-Card Loss to Texans

2020: AFC Championship Loss to Chiefs

2021: Divisional Round Loss to Chiefs

2022: Divisional Round Loss to Bengals

This is the closest they've gotten to seeing an AFC Championship celebration:

Let's check in on their fanbase real quick:

Buffalo Jaguars managed to go 0-2 in a single weekend.

The weirdest part about Josh Allen being a Choke Artist is how few people have caught on to that reality. 

The ceiling for Josh Allen so far has been losing in the AFC Championship game. 

That's the floor for Mahomes. 

So anytime anybody wants to compare the two, just remember Mahomes' floor is Allen's ceiling.

2nd Work Trip to Asheville

First thing we did upon arriving in Asheville was head to Omni Grove Inn for a drink at sunset to enjoy the view.

Had dinner at Leo's House of Thirst (not pictured.) 

Here's the view from our hotel.

Started the next at the Biltmore. Gardens not as nice in January but no crowds either.

Also went to Black Mountain, NC for some shopping and lunch at Veranda. Then went to the River Arts District to stroll through Marquee browsing local art and NC Glass to see some live glass-blowing. (not pictured). 

We sampled a flight at Pleb Urban Winery...

And got a 5-round wine tasting at the Biltmore Winery. As always, I prefer the sweet wines. 

I also managed to find something else sweet at the Biltmore Winery.

Had a good fish and chips dinner at Jettie Rae's (not pictured). And then went for a flight at Wicked Weed Funkatorium. Great sours.

Also got a good cocktail at Antidote. (not pictured.)

The next morning went for a meditation in a Salt Cave.

And had my favorite meal of the trip at Biscuit Head. This is a biscuit with pork gravy. Also had a side of jalapeno pimento cheese, country ham and extra biscuit.

Had a fun tour of Citizens Vinyl where we got to see records being pressed and then a wild dinner at Cultura. It was also good, but their bathrooms steal the show:

Sportsbook: Week 2

Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN

$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS

$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Currently: $286.36

Week 2 Bets

$100 on 49ers -4

$100 on Bengals +5.5

$50 on Jags +8.5

Playoff Sportsbook

Let's look at some teasers just for fun.

2-team teaser (6 point tease)

49ers -4 AND Bills -4.5

3-team teaser (10 point tease)

49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5

3-teamer actually looks tastier.

Let's say I have a budget for $250 each week of the playoffs. After the playoffs can I take my balance above $1000 and turn an imaginary profit?

So I'll start with $50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110. 

I'll update with where I'm placing the rest of my $200 later this week.

Alright. $100 on Bills -10.5 and $100 on Bengals -6.5. 

Playoff QB - Confidence Rankings

I'm adding in the draft year, as a call back to this post.

For all of these, we have to factor in situation, including coaching and supporting cast. As in, sure I bet Shanahan would rather have Herbert than Purdy, but that doesn't matter. What matters is what we're getting on the field this weekend, and I think Purdy is going to be better. 

1. Mahomes (2017)

2. Allen (2018)

3. Burrow (2020)

4. Hurts (assuming healthy) (2020)

5. Purdy (2022)

6. Herbert (2020)

7. Brady (2000)

8. Lawrence (2021)

9. Dak (2016)

10. Cousins (2012)

11. Dimes (2019)

12. Geno Smith (2013)

13. Huntley (2020)

14. Skylar (2022)

Injured Tua or Injured Lamar probably rises a few spots but not a ton because of injury unknowns.

I would love it if this fact was true:

The only QB drafted in the last ten years to win a Super Bowl is Mahomes. 

But for that to be true one of these teams has to win the Super Bowl: Chiefs, Bucs, Vikings.

The takeaway for all of this, is that we've really hit a new generation of QBs. The Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Brees generation had a great run and all of them won a Super Bowl. But we are really in a new era now and that's pretty cool. Mahomes at 27 is the oldest QB in a loaded AFC. 

(Also, insane that Brady is still in the mix.)

Ironman Fantasy Football - Season 2

Coming off of the inaugural season, I was looking to repeat. Mark was looking to even the score. 

Here were our week 1 starters:

And here were our benches:

Our week one projections were completely even. I won by 56 but it only counts as one win. 

18 weeks and week 17 is worth double, so you have to win 10 weeks to claim the title. 

There was a problem however. Week 1 I suffered two injuries: Harrison Butker and Keenan Allen. 

I chose not to backup my kicker and my backups at WR were Hopkins and Tolbert. Hopkins was on suspension through the first six weeks so I was counting on Tolbert. I was told he would be the #2 WR for Dallas. Turns out he was inactive all season. Whoops. 

For weeks 2-5, I didn't have a WR or a kicker. In week 6, Butker returned but my starting TE was injured and my backup TE was on bye, so I still had zeroes at 2 out of 9 positions. 

Through 6 weeks, I was 1-5. But I lost by two points in week 2 and one point in week 4. With either a WR or a kicker, I would have won those weeks. So I should have been 3-3. To be 3-3, all I needed to do was draft a backup kicker or draft a backup WR that actually plays football instead of Tolbert's inactive ass.

Hopkins returned in week 7 and guided me to victory but week 8 was a disaster. Chiefs were on bye and my backup QB was Jameis Winston who lost his starting job. Chase was injured and Butker was on bye. So I had triple zeroes that week. 

Week 9: I also lost. Chase injured. Keenan Allen is still not back from his week 1 injury. Tolbert still sucks. So still a zero at WR. The best ability is availability. 

Mark is up 7-2 through week 9. Three weeks away from clinching the title.

Mark's backup QB was Trey Lance who was out for the season in week 2. Which means when Lamar is on bye in week 10, he got blown out. 

Week 11 was our first fully healthy week since week 1! I won by 40 and there was still hope. 

But then week 12, both teams fully healthy, Mark had monster games from Jefferson and Higgins and beat me by 6.5.

Now Mark is up 8-4. Two wins away. And week 17 is worth double. It looks bad.

Virtually the only way Mark doesn't close this out is with an injury at a position where he doesn't have backups. And the only position that applies is QB. 

Week 13. Lamar Jackson injured. Zero points. Timetable to return: 1-3 weeks

Lamar doesn't suit up for week 13-16 and I reel off four wins in a row. Tie the season at 8-8. 

Week 17 is designed to be worth double for multiple reasons. Obviously we need an odd number of weeks. And it gives people hope and time to catch up. And it reduces the importance of week 18, which often has wonky rosters. But there's a nice benefit to this situation. 

The high drama of a one-week winner take all Super Bowl. 

Here were the projections for the biggest fantasy matchup of the year:

Dave: 120

Mark: 88

He's missing Lamar, which accounts for 24 points of that 32 point projection deficit.

The thing about projections, is that points on paper aren't as good as points on the scoreboard. 

So when my team is entering Monday Night Football with only Chase remaining and I'm sitting on 70.5, I'm not loving it. Not exactly going to hit 120. 

But it was one of the weirdest Sundays with players across the board falling short. Mark only had 44.5 entering MNF, with Tee Higgins and the Buffalo defense remaining. 

Trailing by 26, the app gave Mark a 2% chance of winning and projected me to win by 25.

And then we had the most tragic, saddest, strangest Monday Night Football ever. 

The game ended that night with the Bills defense at 18, Higgins at 1.5 and Chase at 0. So Mark was on 64. By Friday that game had been officially cancelled, ruled a no contest, all stats and points voided. 

We came up with a variety of solutions and we landed on this: Count Higgins 1.5 and award 9 points to the Bills defense...and combine our scores from Week 17 + 18. 

I went from being a 98% chance to win to now having to survive another week. 

Unfortunately for Mark, Lamar's 1-3 week timetable turned into 6. Andrews was also out so it wasn't that close. 

I was trailing 4-8 and ending up winning 10-8.

The reality is the Lamar injury definitely swung things. Lamar could have easily put up 20 points in Weeks 14 and 16 and got to 10 wins. Of course, if we had both had healthy rosters, I still think I would have won, but that's the whole nature of the game. 

Incidentally, even if he had gotten to 9, let's say he wins Week 14. Then I'm trailing 7-9 headed into Week 17. I would have won Weeks 17 and 18 and won the league 10-9 that way. 

But there is a little bit of redemption. The player that missed the most games for me, the one player most responsible for me going 2-7 in the first nine weeks, was Keenan Allen. 

And on Championship Sunday, he puts up his best game of the season and secures the Ironman Title for me. 

NFL Playoffs Preview

Here's your updated Super Bowl odds for the 5 teams with odds under 10 to 1, with the Calcutta owner.

Chiefs +330 (Mark)

Bills +420 (Kirat)

Eagles +500 (Dave)

49ers +550 (Mark)

Bengals +750 (Niraj)

Vegas thinks the Vikings are frauds and are happy to offer +3200 odds for anyone to bet on the #3 seed in the NFC. 

I mean sure, there's Tom Brady you can never actually count him out, but according to the odds, the NFC Championship is going to be 49ers at Eagles and the AFC Championship is going to be one of Bills and Bengals vs the Chiefs. 

If the Chiefs were to make it, they would either get a 49ers Super Bowl rematch or a Kelce vs Kelce, Andy Reid vs former team matchup. 

- - - 

Here's your Wild-Card Round Schedule, with Calcutta owners and opening betting lines:

Saturday

Seahawks MARK at 49ers MARK -6.5

Chargers MATT at Jaguars DAVE +2.5

Sunday

Dolphins MATT at Bills KIRAT -10.5

Giants KIRAT at Vikings DAVE -3

Ravens DAVE at Bengals NIRAJ -6

Monday

Cowboys DAVE at Bucs NIRAJ +3

Byes: Chiefs MARK, Eagles DAVE

Chiefs Playoff Preview

In August, it was trendy for people to pick Chiefs make the playoffs. The Bills were the AFC favorite and the Chargers were the trendy pick to win the AFC West. 

Well, it's playoff time and the Chiefs are your #1 seed once again. 

If we assume the Bills and Bengals both win next week, Chiefs get to host either the Jaguars or Chargers in Arrowhead on January 21 or 22. 

Get past that matchup and they'll be playing in the AFC Championship on January 29. Either hosting the Bengals in Arrowhead or facing the Bills on a neutral field. 

That Bills-Bengals game will be nuts. I fully expect Damar Hamlin to be hyping up Buffalo with a pre-game appearance and the crowd will be insane.

Either opponent will be dangerous for KC. Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and they came in to our house last year and beat us. When Bengals play at their best they are excellent on both sides of the ball — while the Chiefs defense is not as strong. Similar comparison for the Bills as they have a top offense and defense. If they are riding a 3-game winning streak post-Hamlin injury and are on a neutral site, they could easily be favored by Vegas. 

The bye is a huge, huge advantage though as it ensures KC only has to play one of Bills/Bengals. If it's every bit of the physical drama-filled game, the winner could be worn out by the time they have to play KC. 

With KC's defense not being as strong as either the Bills or Bengals, it will be a difficult path to the Super Bowl no matter what. Our best advantage though is that we have the MVP of the league and they don't.