Tuesday, December 26, 2006
Redskins +2.5 over Giants
Bills +9 over Ravens
Bears -2.5 over Packers
Steelers +6 over Bengals
Lions +12.5 over Cowboys
Texans -4 over Browns
Dolphins +9 over Colts
Chiefs -2 over Jags
Rams -1.5 over Vikes
Raiders +13 over Jets
Falcons +7.5 over Eagles
Seahawks +3 over Bucs
Pats +3 over Titans
Broncos -10.5 over 49ers
Cardinals +14 over Bolts
Monday, December 25, 2006
In 1990 the playoffs expanded to 12 teams, and is the beginning of the modern format, and our analysis of the bye weeks.
There are 16 years to study, meaning 32 Super Bowl teams. Here's the breakdown by seed:
#1 seed: 16 appearances, 8 winners
#2 seed: 10 appearances, 5 winners
#3 seed: 1 appearance, 0 winners
#4 seed: 3 appearances, 2 winners
#5 seed: 0 appearances, 0 winners
#6 seed: 1 appearance, 1 winner
- The odds of a Super Bowl team or Super Bowl winner having a playoff bye is 81.25%.
- The #2 seed has fared much better than the #3 seed, despite that the difference could come down to a tiebreaker.
- All 3 of the #4 seeds to advance to the Super Bowl were Wild Card teams, as they occured before the NFL switched to the 4 division lineup in 2002. The winners were the 2000 Ravens and the 1997 Broncos. The loser, 1992 Buffalo, which only made it to the Super Bowl because of "The Comeback" against the Oilers.
- The only other Wild Card team to make it to the Super Bowl -- the 2005 Steelers. That makes Wild Card teams 3 out of 4 when playing in the Super Bowl.
- The only divisional winner to make the Super Bowl without getting a bye -- the 2003 Panthers.
There have been 64 teams that got playoff byes. 26 of them made it to the Super Bowl. 40.625% success rate.
There have been 40 divisional winners that didn't get byes. 1 of them made it to the Super Bowl. 2.5% success rate.
There have been 88 wild card teams. 4 of them have made it to the Super Bowl. 4.55% success rate.
Overall, only 2 of the 12 playoff teams can make it. A 16.66% rate.
Clearly, it's not good enough to win your division. You have to go out and get that bye. The numbers are even more impressive than I thought they would be.
The posts that I find I'm most proud of, usually fall in to one of three categories:
1. Offbeat or philisphical writing that at times has only a vague or non-existent connection to sports
(examples: here, here and here)
2. Ideas and strategies that I think would work
(examples: here, here, here, here, and here)
3. In-depth analysis using personally gathered, real statistics
(examples: here, here, and here)
Sure I love to throw in some filler youtube clips or talk about how the Chiefs are letting me down, but it's these 3 categories that I think make my little site here a little different than what else is out there.
Thursday, December 21, 2006
I love chocolate. Especially a good bar of real, dark chocolate. But what makes chocolate taste even better. Putting it on a pretzel. The combination of sweet and salty. Put them together and they are even better than they are separate.
It's just like everything else in the world. Everything is better with balance. Football wouldn't be as great if it was played 12 months of the year. For most people spending time with their family is the best thing in the world, and yet everyone needs a little time alone. The salty makes the sweet taste even better.
As the holidays are approaching, we should all remember to enjoy the sweetness of the season, and take time to reflect on any saltiness that you've experienced. Happy Holidays.
Raiders +6.5 over Chiefs
Falcons -5.5 over Panthers
Bears -4.5 over Lions
Pats +2.5 over Jags
Saints +2.5 over Giants
Texans +9.5 over Colts
Rams -2.5 over Redskins
Ravens +3.5 over Steelers
Bucs +2.5 over Browns
Titans +4.5 over Bills
Niners -4.5 over Cards
Bengals +2.5 over Broncos
Chargers -4.5 over Seahawks
Eagles +6.5 over Cowboys
Jets +2.5 over Dolphins
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
Friday, December 15, 2006
-2.5 vs Bengals. Bengals win by 13. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
+10.5 at Broncos. Broncos win by 3. Chiefs were underdog, lost, and covered.
-7 vs 49ers. Chiefs win by 41. Chiefs were favorite and won and covered.
-3.5 at Cardinals. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and won, but did not cover.
+6.5 at Steelers. Steelers win by 38. Chiefs were underdog, lost, and did not cover.
+5.5 vs Chargers. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-5.5 vs Seahawks. Chiefs win by 7. Chiefs were favorite and won and covered.
+2.5 at Rams. Chiefs win by 14. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-3.5 at Dolphins. Dolphins win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
-11 vs Raiders. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and won, but did not cover.
+1 vs Broncos. Chiefs win by 9. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-5 at Browns. Browns win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
-1.5 vs Ravens. Ravens win by 10. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
Of the 13 games they have played so far:
8 times the Chiefs were favorites.
- 4 times they lost.
- 2 times they won and covered.
- 2 times they won but did not cover.
5 times the Chiefs were dogs
- 3 times they won.
- 1 time they lost and covered
- 1 time they lost and did not cover.
In only 3 out of 13 games did the spread come into play. (+10.5 at Broncos, -3.5 at Cardinals, -11 vs Raiders)
Also, and the biggest note for gamblers, in Chiefs games, the underdog is 10-3 ATS. If you bet $20 on the underdog in Chiefs games every week, you would be up $140.
Thursday, December 14, 2006
I spend so much time thinking about trivial things...and sometimes I have observations without an agenda or a thesis. It is what it is.
#10. Pardon the Interruption, but I'm Smarter than Mark
If only for the Photoshop job.
#9. Introducing the 9 Day Week
Perhaps the first of my many suggestions for fixing the world.
#8. The Gaucho Way of Preparing Meat
A recap of a meatravaganza!
#7. The Greatest Game Ever Played
A tribute to gutsy coaching of Dick Vermeil and the 2005 Chiefs.
#6. Six Degrees of Kyle Orton
A serious look at NFL quarterbacks.
#5. Why I Married a Vegetarian
A semi-serious cost benefit analysis of marrying someone who doesn't eat meat.
#4. You Must Be Fucking With Me
A satiric look at how Blockbuster patronizes me.
#3. How Far We've Come
A personal timeline of football video games.
#2. Here's what a BCS Playoff would look like
How I solved one of the biggest problem in sports.
#1. Buying a Cow
"Why buy the cow, when you can get the milk for free?"
Cowboys -3.5 over Falcons
Ravens -11.5 over Browns
Saints -9.5 over Redskins
Bills -1.5 over Dolphins
Bears -13.5 over Bucs
Titans +3.5 over Jags
Jets +3.5 over Vikings
Patriots -11.5 over Texans
Packers -5.5 over Lions
Steelers -2.5 over Panthers
Cardinals +2.5 over Broncos
Rams +1.5 over Raiders
Giants -5.5 over Eagles
Chiefs +8.5 over Chargers
Bengals +3.5 over Colts
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
Instead, the refs kept the clock moving after Bruce ran out of bounds, forcing the Rams to spike the ball. Now they had 2nd and 10, with 20 seconds remaining. A penalty ensued, and the Rams missed a long field goal: halftime score Bears 14, Rams 13.
But under the first scenario, their playcalling would have been different, and who knows if they would have scored a touchdown or a field goal, but any score would be likely.
That would mean that the Rams would have more momentum and the lead, when they get the ball in the second half. Now the 2nd half that actually happened would never have existed.
Just like in Back to the Future, there is no way to predict what would happen next, but it's probable that the game wouldn't have unfolded the way it did.
Furthermore, if it's not MNF, they reiterate the same stories over and over when there isn't anything new to report. How many days can they lead with "no word yet on where Iverson will go"? And yet, despite how much sports coverage I get, I haven't heard anything talking about one of the gutsiest calls, in the middle of a complete example of outcoaching.
The call -- an onside kick with the Saints leading 35-17. They've got all the momentum in the world in the 3rd quarter. Kick away and there should be no problem to hold on to win. But an onside kick? Recovering it would really seal the deal, but lose it, and give them great field position? The cowboys could cut it to a 11-point game in the 3rd quarter and regain some momentum. The risk doesn't seem to be worth the reward.
But Payton was confident that he could catch the Cowboys sleeping, and recover the kick easily. They did. And would score on the drive. How come no one in media is praising his coaching call? They would be ready to rant and rave, if they lost that kick and it backfired. So how come the media prefers to attack instead of praise?
And you know what, that wasn't the coaching call that made me say "I really like this coach."
Earlier in the game, down 0-7, Saints had a 4th and 1 from the DAL39. They called a reverse using Bush as a decoy. Risky play, but it worked.
Payton outcoached Parcells, yet Parcells couldn't admit it. Here are his quotes after the game:
"We took a bad beating tonight," Cowboys head coach Bill Parcells said. "We got beat in about every way possible. They really outplayed us and kept us off balance. They did a good job and we didn't play well. That was a pretty good licking and I can't think of anything that we really did well."
Why is outcoached a dirty word? Players get outplayed and coaches get outcoached. It happens. Just about every game. It doesn't mean you're a bad player or a bad coach. It just happens. So admit it.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Sure there was no two-point conversion or instant replay, but what else was different about football in the 60's?
For starters, the goalposts were conveniently in the field of play. And there were no names on players jerseys. As for the game time? That was kept on the field, and not displayed to the crowd. Penalty flags were white until 1965. And before 1965, no one was a soccer-style kicker. And there weren't any regulations on jersey numbers based on positions. There wasn't any overtime in the regular season, and kickoffs were from the 40-yard line. And referees didn't get wireless microphones until 1975.
And I hope you lived in one of these cities, because there were only 16 teams, half of the current league:
Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers
*Pre-merger NFL teams that went to the AFC. Note this cities' teams feel more like the smashmouth feel of the NFC.
By the way, of the original 14 franchise from 1920, how many are still active?
Chicago Bears (originally from Decatur) and
Arizona Cardinals (originally from Chicago, via St. Louis)
Also, the "head slap" was outlawed in 1977. So, I guess the 60's was a headslapping free-for-all.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Jags +2.5 over Colts
Titans -1.5 over Texans
Chiefs -1.5 over Ravens
Bengals -10.5 over Raiders
Redskins +1.5 over Eagles
Vikings +2.5 over Lions
Patriots -3.5 over Dolphins
Giants +2.5 over Panthers
Bucs +3.5 over Falcons
Seahawks -3.5 over Cardinals
49ers -5.5 over Packers
Jets -4.5 over Bills
Broncos +7.5 over Chargers
Saints +6.5 over Cowboys
Bears -6.5 over Rams
Denver is behind the Chiefs in a tiebreaker, and have a rookie QB. I think they'll lose to the Chargers this week, and then they would need to win their remaining 3 games, and have the Chiefs only win 2 out of their remaining 4. If the Broncos do win this week against San Diego, that opens things up quite a bit.
The Jags have the toughest schedule, and have trouble winning on the road. Won't really be in it. And they'll lose to the Chiefs in their last game, so they don't have any shot anyways.
The Bengals are playing the best right now, and will likely be in without a worry.
Jets and the Chiefs.
The Jets have the easiest schedule and would own the conference tiebreaker, so all they would have to do is match the Chiefs win for win, and they're in. But they are the Jets, so 2 losses even against sorry teams isn't impossible.
The Chiefs really need to play well and get help. They would likely own the tiebreaker over the Broncos, but would lose to the rest of the conference. So they need to win at least 3 of 4, and hope the Jets or Bengals lose 2. Otherwise, they need to win all 4 games. They can beat the Ravens at home, but the Chargers on the road? And the Raiders always play the Chiefs tough.
I think the Chiefs could win 3 of 4, but I bet the Jets and Bengals can do that too.
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
So this means that Mark is on an active 3-peat for regular season. And he's won something every year. Ugh.
03 Regular Season: Dave
03 Playoffs: Mark
04 Regular Season: Mark
04 Playoffs: Dave
05 Regular Season: Mark
05 Playoffs: Matt
06 Regular Season: Mark
06 Playoffs: Mark
The mother of the child mixed baby formula with vodka, instead of water. The baby had a blood alcohol level of .364. The Jay Cutler era has begun!
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Isiah to Nate Robinson: "Do that thing that took you 20 tries to do last year. Yeah, you know what I'm talking about."
Monday, December 04, 2006
(I haven't included bowls like Pacific Life Holiday, as Holiday is still in the title.)
California (Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas)
Sunshine Classic (Champs Sports)
Humanitarian (MPC Computers)
Hall of Fame (Outback)
Citrus (Capital One)
I understand Bowls need sponsors, but at least keep the original name. Especially the Peach Bowl. That was a nice Bowl. I mean, peaches can be put in bowls, creating nice double entendre imagery. But no, now it's just the Chick-fil-a bowl.
And the Copper Bowl was badass. Not so much now.
Also, they're creating new bowls from scratch, with just a sponsor's name, and no other name. For example, Papajohns.com Bowl. Honestly, they couldn't just call it the Papa John's Bowl? They just had to get in .com. Assholes.
Sunday, December 03, 2006
- The 8 teams selected include the conference champion from each of the six BCS conferences plus the 2 others ("at-large" selections) that are highest remaining in the BCS standings.
- I've heard the extra game argument. Now every team is currently playing 12 games. So we reduce to season back to 11. Then there will be 4 quarterfinal teams than only play 12 games in a season--so the only teams that will actually be playing more games they do now will be the Final Four.
- The 4 BCS Bowls would rotate between the matchups in a 4 year pattern so that once every 4 years, each BCS Bowl would occupy each position.
- We keep all the other Bowl games, and play them and their normal times. There will be 6 less bowl teams, as the final 3 bowl games in the playoffs will be teams playing in multiple bowls.
- I contemplated giving the at large teams #7 and #8, but that wouldn't work. Winning your conference gets you in the playoffs, but no guarantees of seeding.
- What about Boise State? Or Wisconsin? Well, they didn't win a BCS conference, and the top 2 at-large berths were taken by Michigan and LSU. If you think that Boise State deserves a shot, do you really think they are better than Michigan or LSU?
Sat, Dec. 23rd
(#4 LSU vs #5 USC)
(#3 Michigan vs #6 Louisville)
(#2 Florida vs #7 Oklahoma)
(#1 Ohio State vs #8 Wake Forest)
Mon, Jan 1st
(#1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU)
(#2 Florida vs #3 Michigan)
Mon, Jan 8th
National Championship Game
(#1 Ohio State vs ?????)
This option rewards Ohio State and Florida for being the top 2 teams, with the easiest first round games. And then it gives 2 amazing New Year's Day bowl games, and lets it be settled on the field, who really deserves to be in the title game.