I haven't had the motivation to really go into this indepth, but I'm fairly sure that the 2 AFC spots will go to the Bengals and Jets.
Denver is behind the Chiefs in a tiebreaker, and have a rookie QB. I think they'll lose to the Chargers this week, and then they would need to win their remaining 3 games, and have the Chiefs only win 2 out of their remaining 4. If the Broncos do win this week against San Diego, that opens things up quite a bit.
The Jags have the toughest schedule, and have trouble winning on the road. Won't really be in it. And they'll lose to the Chiefs in their last game, so they don't have any shot anyways.
The Bengals are playing the best right now, and will likely be in without a worry.
Jets and the Chiefs.
The Jets have the easiest schedule and would own the conference tiebreaker, so all they would have to do is match the Chiefs win for win, and they're in. But they are the Jets, so 2 losses even against sorry teams isn't impossible.
The Chiefs really need to play well and get help. They would likely own the tiebreaker over the Broncos, but would lose to the rest of the conference. So they need to win at least 3 of 4, and hope the Jets or Bengals lose 2. Otherwise, they need to win all 4 games. They can beat the Ravens at home, but the Chargers on the road? And the Raiders always play the Chiefs tough.
I think the Chiefs could win 3 of 4, but I bet the Jets and Bengals can do that too.
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