Friday, December 15, 2006

Favorites and Dogs

I would love to do a league wide analysis, but that would take forever. So lets just look at the Chiefs and see how they do when favored, and when not.

-2.5 vs Bengals. Bengals win by 13. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
+10.5 at Broncos. Broncos win by 3. Chiefs were underdog, lost, and covered.
-7 vs 49ers. Chiefs win by 41. Chiefs were favorite and won and covered.
-3.5 at Cardinals. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and won, but did not cover.
+6.5 at Steelers. Steelers win by 38. Chiefs were underdog, lost, and did not cover.
+5.5 vs Chargers. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-5.5 vs Seahawks. Chiefs win by 7. Chiefs were favorite and won and covered.
+2.5 at Rams. Chiefs win by 14. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-3.5 at Dolphins. Dolphins win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
-11 vs Raiders. Chiefs win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and won, but did not cover.
+1 vs Broncos. Chiefs win by 9. Chiefs were underdog and won game.
-5 at Browns. Browns win by 3. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.
-1.5 vs Ravens. Ravens win by 10. Chiefs were favorite and lost game.


Of the 13 games they have played so far:

8 times the Chiefs were favorites.
  • 4 times they lost.
  • 2 times they won and covered.
  • 2 times they won but did not cover.
So that makes them 2-6 ATS as a favorite.


5 times the Chiefs were dogs
  • 3 times they won.
  • 1 time they lost and covered
  • 1 time they lost and did not cover.
That makes them 4-1 ATS as a dog.



In only 3 out of 13 games did the spread come into play. (+10.5 at Broncos, -3.5 at Cardinals, -11 vs Raiders)
Also, and the biggest note for gamblers, in Chiefs games, the underdog is 10-3 ATS. If you bet $20 on the underdog in Chiefs games every week, you would be up $140.

1 comment:

  1. well done. simmons has done something like that leaguewide tracking favorites vs. dogs and home teams ATS. the underdogs are doing remarkably well this year. the oddsmakers suck and the NFL has been wildly unpredictable this year. it should be about even, right?

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