hey, it's better to make the Super Bowl and lose than not make it at all. but jesus, this was the 1989 Niners over the Broncos.
I've got to give Mark his due, he played like a champion today. At some point I'll calculate if any of the other playoff teams could have beaten Mark, and I'll photoshop a trophy together for Mark. Today is his day.
Adding insult to injury, the Lions stomped the Chiefs, so everything's coming up Mark.
This isn't the first time that "Going for it on 4th and Shlong" and "Hoagie Middle East" are meeting this season. They first played in Week 5. At the time, "Going for it" was mired in an early season slump and had to travel all the way to play at Hoagie Middle East. Still, they only lost by 10 points.
Westbrook and Boldin were on a bye for "Going for it" and Brees still hadn't found his magic. The two big players were Vincent Jackson and Steve Smith, neither of which can be found on the roster today.
For "Hoagie Middle East", Addai was sitting out on his bye week, but Jacobs (drafted by "Going for it"), Burress, and Fitzgerald made up for Kitna and Santonio Holmes doing nothing.
It's hard to beat a team twice in one season, but reportedly, the coach for "Hoagie Middle East" is guaranteeing victory. He said, "We just beat "Burnsy Rules" for the second time this season. What should make me think differently this week? We haven't lost at home all year. We think it's the 8 hour time difference that really gives us an edge, as well as superior players. I'm predicting 11 points out of Jeff Reed. If our mediocre kicker can get more than 10 points, we won't lose. I hear Westbrook is afraid of the end zone, anyway. With that phobia, "Going for it on 4th and Shlong" can't win against my men."
He went on to say he didn't think the other team had the balls to refute his claims.
I'm 9-6 on locks, with 2 weeks to go. That would put me at 7th in the AFC, which isn't good enough to go to the playoffs.
This week I'm going with Cardinals -10 over Falcons.
Steelers -7.5 over Rams Panthers +10.5 over Cowboys Browns -3 over Bengals Packers -8.5 over Bears Texans +7 over Colts Lions -5 over Chiefs Pats -22 over Fins Bills +3 over Giants Jags -13 over Raiders Eagles +3 over Saints Vikings -6.5 over Redskins Cardinals -10 over Falcons Jets +8.5 over Titans Bucs -6 over 49ers Chargers -8.5 over Broncos
1. What was your draft strategy and what were highlights and lowlights on draft day?
My draft strategy was to get two top RBs, then a WR, and then a QB. I wanted the receiver before the QB because we're starting 3 WRs in this league. I mapped out the positions that I wanted in each round, and then took who I thought was the best player at that position. I didn't go for best available player.
Some highlights were getting Addai (whom I ranked #3) at the 7 spot and Laurence Maroney in the 2nd round. He turned out to be a dud, though. I was also happy to get Kitna in the round when I wanted a QB. I thought highly of him and he fit perfectly with my rankings and draft plan.
The biggest lowlight for me, on draft day, was in round 3. I wanted a WR and Steve Smith still hadn't been taken. I had him very high on my list. Of course, he got taken by Matt the pick before me, so I ended up with Larry Fitzgerald. Other than that, I was quite happy with my draft.
2. What were your best in-season moves?
As has already been reported by Hoagie Central, I made some good trades based on strong waiver wire use. I picked up Kevin Jones and Santonio Holmes when they were hot, then traded them to Matt for Randy Moss. I also had space to pick up an injured Andre Johnson and stash him on the bench for a few weeks. That could be my favorite in-season move. Same thing with an injured Brandon Jacobs.
However, my best move was picking up Kurt Warner and starting him last week when I was so close to sticking with Kitna. Without that move, we're not talking about "Hoagie Middle East" in the Super Bowl.
3. Any mistakes or regrets this season?
Maybe I stuck with Kitna too long, but I can't complain. After all, I am in the Super Bowl.
4. How do you feel about your chances in the Super Bowl against Dave?
1. What was your draft strategy and what were highlights and lowlights on draft day?
I definitely wanted a QB early and didn't care about my defense. I didn't plan on getting a kicker early, but I wanted Gostkowski and he was there in 11 so I took him.
Westbrook is my only true highlight. Brees has done well recently, but started off really bad. Low-lights include McNair, Panthers D, V Jackson, D Williams, D Stallworth...
The highlight/lowlight is getting Adrian Peterson in the 9th round...and then trading him away before he went off in week 1, and throughout the year.
2. What were your best in-season moves?
I picked up a lot of studs on waivers: Welker, Earnest Graham, Colston and Colts D. I was also able to snag Bowe after Kirat dropped him, enabling me to dump Steve Smith on him, which was the best move I made, enabling me to beat him in the playoffs.
3. Any mistakes or regrets this season?
Hmmm...Trading Peterson for Steve Smith was a bad idea. I wish I would have been better prepared for injuries. I wish I would have gotten a better backup QB to survive the lean Brees days.
4. How do you feel about your chances in the Super Bowl against Mark?
I think it will be real close. We both have players that are boom or bust, so it will likely come down to who has that extra touchdown.
5. Any other thoughts on the season in general?
I wish there would have been more trades, and I wish that half of the teams didn't stop paying attention. I think that I got really lucky to be in that division and even then I barely made it to the playoffs. I also think it's crazy that a team with LT & Romo and a team with Brady both lost in the playoffs.
Mark has 8 drafted players still on his roster, myself only 5. But all of mine are starting, and he has 4 currently on the bench. We both have one player acquired via trade, his much better. And although I've shuffled the deck more than anyone, my super bowl starters have been on my roster for a while.
I'm 8-1 since adding Colston. Mark is 7-1 since trading for Moss.
I almost forgot...it's very fitting that Kirat is relying on the Bears D to advance to the Super Bowl. He took them in the 6th round, as the first defense off the board. Currently they stand as the 13th best scoring D. We'll see if that 6th round pick paid off...in just about a half hour.
With one game deciding who goes to face Mark in the Construda Super Bowl, there are a lot of intriguinging subplots to look at:
1. By beating Niraj last week, Kirat won the right to play Dave. As it turns out, Dave has outscored Mark by 2 with Clark left to play. Will last week's win cost Kirat a berth in the Super Bowl?
2. Dave traded Steve Smith to Kirat, who ended up getting 7 points this week. Without him, Kirat most likely would have started Mason, who scored 10. Will those 3 points be the difference?
3. Westbrook (on dave's team) kneeled at the one, instead of walking in for a score.
Will those 6 points come back to haunt him?
4. In week 10, Mark was playing Rishi, and Mark had basically secured the #1 seed. I was afraid that he would rest his starters against Rishi, propelling Rishi into the playoffs instead of me. That move would have impacted today's game as well as the Super Bowl.
5. After sticking with Vernon Davis all year, I switched to D. Clark just so I would have a guy on Monday night battling against Kirat. Of course now I'd rather have Davis' 10 points, but maybe Clark can redeem my faith in him.
It all comes down to a Monday night game between the Bears and Vikings, a must see game for Construda league.
This just in across the wire...Hoagie Middle East will be playing in the Construda Super Bowl.
Despite dominating the league in points all year, and being heavily favored in the first round of the playoffs, Burnsy Rules couldn't come up with enough points when it mattered. Of course in hindsight it's easy to say, but if he audibled to Favre, he would have had enough points to advance to the big game.
(NOTE: I'll keep this thread on top all weekend; new hoagie central stories will pop up below--I'll move my picks to the comments to make room.)
This is the home for all the fantasy smack talk for home team and construda all weekend. It should be bananas. I'm posting my home team picks below so leave yours in the comments and we'll see what's up.
A Lions win and a Chiefs loss this week would eliminate the Chiefs. Also, if the Lions beat the Chiefs next week, regardless of everything else, the Lions would win the bet.
The Chiefs have to beat the Lions and at least one of the other games, maybe both, even then it still might not be enough.
All that said, these are two sorry teams that started off strong (at least not shitty in the case of the Chiefs). As long as the Lions lose this week at San Diego, next week's game will still mattter. Never give up.
I completely forgot to make my texans-broncos pick. oh well.
Bengals -8.5 over 49ers Saints -3.5 over Cards Falcons +13.5 over Bucs Ravens -3.5 over Dolphins Bills +5.5 over Browns Packers -8.5 over Rams (LOCK) Steelers -3.5 over Jaguars Pats -23 over Jets* Seahawks -7.5 over Panthers Titans -4 over Chefs Colts -10.5 over Raiders Lions +10 over Chargers Cowboys -10 over Eagles Giants -4.5 over Redskins Bears +10 over Purple Jesus
Rashard's .91 touchdowns certainly helped! and here's my first sim using the fymbo formula playoff system:
the computers like oklahoma over osu 3 to 2. they even like oklahoma over lsu. but lsu is the winner of my 8-team playoff, beating west virginia, usc and ou. of course they lost to florida in a game that wasn't on my schedule. figures.
With only 3 weeks to go it's still anyone's game. And by anyone, I mean myself, Niraj, or Mark. Rishi's done a nice job of sowing up last place, so he'll be ordering the trophy. As a reminder there's incentive to finish in both 1st and 2nd. So we'll see if Mark can catch up and not be the odd man out in the big three.
I started up $200 before dropping down to -$40. I stink.
Bears +3 over Redskins (THU)
Jags -10.5 over Panthers Cowboys -10.5 over Lions (LOCK)* Bills -7 over Fins Eagles -2.5 over Giants Packers -10.5 over Raiders* Chargers PK over Titans Rams +6.5 over Bengals Bucs -3 over Texans Cardinals +7 over Seahawks Niners +8.5 over Vikes (I have no idea why I'm picking them) Steelers +10.5 over Pats Browns -3.5 over Jets* Broncos -6.5 over Chiefs* Colts -9 over Ravens Saints -4.5 over Falcons
*I'll have to remember these games for the sportsbook.
Week 13 Dave: 7-9 = Down $40 Mark: 9-7 = Up $40 Sports Guy: 9-7 = Up $40 Sports Gal: 7-9 = Down $40
On the Season Dave: 90-92-10 = Down $40 Mark: 76-91-10 = Down $300 Sports Guy: 91-92-9 = Down $20 Sports Gal: 99-84-9 = Up $300
It's almost a paradox. Mark makes crappy picks so Tom turns those into a winning week 13 for him. This improves Mark's record on the year, making Tom's record worse for the year. The end result, Tom had a good week, making his year worse, but he's still as good as the Sports Gal, because she had a bad week. Got that? And I dropped below the Sports Guy and below .500.
2 bizarre things from Coach Gibbs yesterday. He turned a 51-yard field goal into a 36-yarder by calling 2 timeouts back to back. Also, he didn't know the Redskins were going to honor Taylor by putting 10 men on the field.
I'll start with the Chiefs who have lost 5 in a row. Most depressing? 2-5 at home with a game against the Titans left on the schedule. The Arrowhead advantage has gone missing this year.
My home team picks are at 27 right now. Sure I have Brady, Welker and Pats D, but 27? I think this is the first time that I've ever picked an injured player (Fitzgerald) and I picked the worst time to pick Gates (0).
Further frustrating, I am suddenly on the outside looking in at the Construda playoffs. I need Welker and Gostowksi to put up 28 tonight. Certainly possibly, but not likely. They've done that twice in 11 games this year. If I don't get that, I need Rishi's team to blow it next week, which looks doubtful right now. Ugh, just when you think you're safe...
But alas, Illinois is going to the Rose Bowl. I'll be in LA at the time. Tickets are $300+ A wild turn of events. I think it's worth noting that this year Illinois could have gone 11-1 and the best they could have hoped for would be a Rose Bowl. In fact, in a season like 2003 or 2005, they could have gone 12-0 and landed in the Rose Bowl. Just wild.
Here's a recap of what my 8-team playoff is and how it would look this year:
The 8 teams selected include the conference champion from each of the six BCS conferences plus the highest ranking team from outside those conferences (provided in top 16) and an at-large team.
We keep all the other Bowl games, and play them and their normal times. There will be 6 less bowl teams, as the final 3 bowl games in the playoffs will be teams playing in multiple bowls.
This would give us 4 great bowl games on New Year's Day
This year's teams:
Big Ten: Ohio State SEC: LSU Pac-Ten: USC ACC: Virginia Tech Big East: West Virginia Big 12: Oklahoma Non-Conference: Hawaii (finished at #10 in BCS) At-Large: Georgia (finished at #5 in BCS)
So that's the field. Here's what it would look like.
New Year's Day: Round 1
Rose #1 Ohio State vs #8 Hawaii
Sugar #2 LSU vs #7 West Virginia
Orange #3 Virginia Tech vs #6 USC
Fiesta #4 Oklahoma vs #5 Georgia
BCS Playoffs: Round 2
Rose vs Fiesta
Sugar vs Orange
BCS National Championship
The Fymbo Formula gives every legit team a chance to play for the championship, notable USC, Georgia, Oklahoma and Hawaii, while only excluding teams that couldn't win their conference or finish in the top 5 in the country. If you're not the best team in your conference, you can't be the best team in the country.
What's the one team that can cover a 20 point spread?
As noted earlier, I'm hoping to make the playoffs, and hope to get a bye by getting a better record than the 2nd place team in the AFC.
Previous GFLW's (8-4) Week 1: Steelers at -4.5 = Win by 27 Week 2: Bengals at -7 = Lose by 6 Week 3: Chiefs at -2.5 = Win by 3 Week 4: Patriots at -7 = Win by 21 Week 5: Patriots at -16.5 = Win by 17 Week 6: Patriots at -6 = Win by 21 Week 7: Seahawks at -8 = Win by 27 Week 8: Colts at -6.5 = Win by 24 Week 9: Pats at -5.5 = Win by 4 Week 10: Chiefs at -3 = Lose by 16 Week 11: Steelers at -9.5 = Lose by 3 Week 12: Packers at -3 = Win by 11
Rams -3 over Falcons Redskins -5.5 over Bills Lions +4 over Vikings Texans +3.5 over Titans Jaguars +6.5 over Colts Jets +1 over Dolphins Chargers -5.5 over Chiefs Seahawks +3 over Eagles 49ers +3 over Panthers Bucs +3 over Saints Browns +1 over Cardinals Broncos -3.5 over Raiders Bears +1.5 over Giants Steelers -7 over Bengals Pats -20 over Ravens
I really like the Cowboys and all but I'm taking the Packers +7 tonight.
Also, I will continue to pick every spread, but since I'm back to .500 I'm also going to institute a new system for the rest of the year. I'm going to take 100 imaginary bucks and I will put it on any games that I want, spreading it out as much or as little as I want. And I'll even take out the Vegas commission. So this will be a true test--if I was in a sportsbook, would I be able to come out ahead, picking and choosing my battles? (If I need to, I can go to the imaginary ATM, but I'll always compare my profit to my investment.)
Also, since my locks are 8-4 they seem to be in good shape for the playoffs. I've decided that when the playoffs come I will continue in a elimination format to try and advance through to picking the super bowl winner. As for whether or not I have to pick the wild card games, that will be determined by my record. I'll compare myself to the AFC, top 2 records get a bye. I'm currently the 5th seed behind the Pats, Colts, Jags and Steelers. So if the season ended today, I'd have to pick in the wild-card games.
If OSU makes it to the title game (because of a Missouri or West Virginia loss), Illinois heads to play USC in the Rose Bowl.
However, if OSU goes to the Rose Bowl, then it looks like the Fiesta Bowl would have to choose an opponent for Kansas: either Arizona State or Illinois. CBS thinks ASU is more likely, but the Tribune likes the spending power of the out of state Illini fan base.
The Sugar Bowl vs LSU becomes a possibility if Illinois doesn't get the Rose or Fiesta and Hawaii loses this week.
If Illinois doesn't get that, they're likely headed to play Florida in a Zook rematch at the Capital One Bowl.
Here are my preferences:
1. Fiesta vs KU They have a big offense but are easily the most beatable team, plus it's Kansas and the Illini faithful would love to beat them, even on the gridiron.
2. Rose vs USC For one I'll be in LA over New Year's anyway, although I'm not about to spend $400 bucks to watch Illinois lose by 30. USC would crush us, but it would be awesome to make it to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1984.
3. Capital One vs Florida This is a great story and would be a compelling game. It's not in the BCS, but is still a major bowl, and maybe Zook has some inside information that could help us win.
4. Sugar vs LSU DO NOT WANT This would be terrible. LSU should be in the national championship game, if it wasn't for one of two 3OT games. They would beat us by 70 points and did I mention it's a home game. This would just bring back bad memories. Seriously, can we decline the BCS bid and take the Capital One bid? Of course not, because the BCS bid earns over a million for the conference. Fuck, man.
Teams 3-6 stink. Seattle and Tampa probably emerge but have no shot of beating the Cowboys or Packers. I think Dallas wins this week, gets home field advantage and takes care of the Packers in the NFC Championship, but that's about the only playoff game that's up in the air.
Cleveland holds on to the wild card enough to get pounded by the Steelers. Chargers-Jaguars looks like a good game, but it probably won't be. That winner loses to the Pats big time. Steelers might beat the Colts, neither one has shot against New England.
Pats beat Cowboys in the most American Super Bowl ever.
There's basically 3 teams locked into the playoffs: Mark, Burnsy and Kirat. And Rishi would need to beat me this weekend and win again next week to get in. He beat me in week 2 110-104. If he can do it again, I'd be amazed. Still it's a huge game.
The other thing left to be determined is who gets the wild card, Niraj owns the tie breaker, but assuming both he and Kirat win this weekend, it won't matter. The winner of their week 14 game will win the division, the loser gets the wild card.
Here's the projected playoff picture:
Mark #1 vs #4 (loser of Kirat/Burnsy game) Dave #3 vs #2 (winner of Kirat/Burnsy game)
Ironically, I am 4-1-1 vs Mark over the last 6 weeks, so you could make the argument that the easier path through the playoffs is through Mark, and Kirat or Burnsy should tank their last game. But I don't buy it. The playoffs are going to be hard no matter who you play, and it will be good teams against good teams.
Breakdowns over the last 6 weeks:
Dave vs Mark: 4-1-1 Dave vs Kirat: 6-0 Dave vs Niraj: 3-3
Mark vs Niraj: 2-3-1 Mark vs Dave: 1-4-1 Mark vs Kirat: 5-1
Niraj vs Dave: 3-3 Niraj vs Mark: 3-2-1 Niraj vs Kirat: 4-2
Kirat vs Dave: 0-6 Kirat vs Mark: 1-5 Kirat vs Niraj: 2-4
Fine then. If there's one thing that I can count on, it's Brett Favre to show up on Thanksgiving. The Packers never lose and the Lions are falling apart. The Pack covers 3 easy.
Previous GFLW's (7-4) Week 1: Steelers at -4.5 = Win by 27 Week 2: Bengals at -7 = Lose by 6 Week 3: Chiefs at -2.5 = Win by 3 Week 4: Patriots at -7 = Win by 21 Week 5: Patriots at -16.5 = Win by 17 Week 6: Patriots at -6 = Win by 21 Week 7: Seahawks at -8 = Win by 27 Week 8: Colts at -6.5 = Win by 24 Week 9: Pats at -5.5 = Win by 4 Week 10: Chiefs at -3 = Lose by 16 Week 11: Steelers at -9.5 = Lose by 3
Packers -3 over Lions Cowboys -14 over Jets Falcons +12 over Colts
Broncos +2 over Bears Titans -1 over Bengals Bills +7.5 over Jaguars Chiefs -5.5 over Raiders Browns -3.5 over Texans Rams +3 over Seahawks Vikings +7.5 over Giants Panthers +3 over Saints Bucs -3 over Redskins 49ers +10 over Cardinals Ravens +9 over Chargers Steelers -16 over Dolphins Pats -22 over Eagles
This summer I made some new friends. And I savor every time that I get to spend with them: Sam Seaborn, Josh Lyman, Toby Ziegler, Leo McGarry, C.J. Cregg, Donna Moss, Charlie Young, and of course, Jed Bartlet.
We'll start with the most bizarre play of the year, a field goal that was able to bounce on the curved extension that faces away from the field, and actually go towards the field. If I was Brian Billick I would be looking for a kicker on the Grassy Knoll because it seems to defy logic. Back and to the left. Back and to the left! Also, Romeo Crennel provided this bit of wisdom, while stuffing a Maryland Crab Cake down his gullet, "Sometimes the ball bounces a lot of different ways. Because it's oblong." See, it's that kind of advanced understanding of the game that separates the brainless schlubs who watch the games and the masterminds who coach it. Also, I believe that is the first Bonerjam quote that is actually real.
Apparently Bobby Petrino doesn't read the Fanhouse, cause he would have known to start Leftwich over Harrington. Also, he must owe money to Leftwich because he's terrible. The best thing the Jags ever did was cut him.
The Lions finally lost a game at home, bringing an end to a streak that absolutely no one was paying attention to. Of course after the game, Kitna pointed out the obvious, that the Giants are not a better football team than the Lions. I wonder during which of his 3 interceptions, did he have the time to figure that out.
The Eagles finally got on the right track with their star quarterback, A.J. Feeley. Sure McNabb may have been injured, but it couldn't have worked out better for the Eagles, because Feeley played for the Dolphins, so he knows how to beat them. It worked so well, they offered Quincy Carter a contract in preparation for the next time they play the Cowboys.
Remember when the Raiders were 2-2 and atop the AFC West? Neither do they. Thankfully for them, the Dolphins, Jets, and Rams have distracted the nation so no one's noticed the Raiders. Also, does Chester Taylor's performance give more credit to the O-line and less to Peterson. I think so.
I couldn't be happier that the Chargers got rid of Drew Brees and Marty to go with Rivers and Norv. Say what you will about Brees this year, but he's no Rivers. How do you go 5-5 with LT?
The Chiefs prevented Manning from getting a TD pass, for the first time in 2 years. Also, Croyle and Bowe are only 84 behind Young/Rice, even if it's not the record anymore.
Carson Palmer threw 4 touchdowns. 1 to Housh, 1 to Chris Henry, and 2 to Antrel Rolle.
Brett Favre outplayed Vinny Testaverde in the Matlock® Senior Bowl. If it weren't for about 12 other crappy teams, the Panthers might be might least favorite team.
Reggie Bush caught 12 passes for 70 yards. He also ran the ball 15 times for....wait for it... 34 yards. The Saints are 0-6 when committing 2+ turnovers, so maybe the shouldn't turn the ball over so much--I mean, it seems to hurt their chances of winning games, I'm just saying.
When the 7-2 Steelers meet the 1-8 Jets, there's only one thing that can happen. The Steelers allow a 100-yard rusher for the first time in 35 games, get beat by a flea flicker, and allow Kellen Clemens to execute a 2-minute offense to send it to overtime, force a punt and win in OT. That's about right.
In Seattle, the Bears scored an offensive touch down in the first quarter. Why do I mention it? It was the first time it had happened all year. Grossman did fumble the game away in the 4th quarter, but he did look sexy doing it.
It's really sad when a team in your division starts 0-8, and they're better than you. This is the fate of the San Francisco 49ers. They lost 9-13, in what would have been a high scoring game if this was the Giants-Cardinals.
The Cowboys look really good. It might be more exciting if they didn't get beaten down by the Pats at home a couple weeks ago.
Mercury Morris of the 72 Dolphins has said repeatedly over the years, when reporters ask about the current undefeated team, "Don't call me when you're in my town, call me when you're on my block." His point was that a 13-0 Colts team still couldn't compare to a 17-0 Dolphins team. Fair enough. But when he said that last week, I'd like to point out, that not only are the Patriots on your block, but their house is a lot nicer than yours:
As for MNF, it's a 2nd place team in a division where the best team is .500 vs a 3rd place team where the worst team is .500. Exciting.