AFC West
We start with the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs.
(Pause for 10 minutes to bask in the glory of that sentence.)
I'm back. Mahomes, Kelce and Reid. We're still in Phase 1 of Mahomes' career. One day Kelce won't be here anymore and Reid should retire before Mahomes too. In 2033, Mahomes will be making a playoff run as a 37-year-old quarterback with literally zero players from today's team. And that's fine. But for now, he's got Reid and Kelce and life is good.
It was January of 2023 the last time we saw the Chargers play football. They were up 27-0 in the playoffs and lost.
Russ Wilson will be better this year because he has to be. He couldn't be any worse than dogshit, which is what he was last year. Sean Payton will help.
The Raiders swap Derek Carr for Jimmy G.
It seems too easy, but I think Chiefs win the division, Chargers are a wild-card team, Broncos 3rd and Raiders 4th but it's close.
AFC North
Bengals are still the class of the division, but the Burrow injury makes me nervous. I kinda thought Cinci would fall back to earth last year (saying they were a 10 win team that overachieved in 2021 and predicted them to win 6-9 games. They won 12.) I'll stick with them to win the division and win 11-12 games but if they fall back to earth this year and fail to make the playoffs, I'll still count that as being correct for not believing in them as a concept.
Steelers are on the rise. I think Kenny Pickett outperforms expectations and Steelers make the wild-card.
Seems kinda clear that Lamar's MVP season back in 2019 was the outlier. They've won between 8 and 11 games every year for the last three, going 11, 8, 10. Let's pencil them in for 9 wins this year to complete the set.
I'm still skeptical on Watson on the Browns. If he stinks again, it wouldn't surprise anybody.
Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Browns.
AFC South
All about the Trevor Lawrence hype train. If they get blown out 27-0 in the playoffs, this hype train might not leave the station. But they didn't. They've got Lawrence ascending and Ridley is going to bet on himself this year and finish as a top 10 receiver.
Titans have Derrick Henry and D Hop. If this was 4 years ago, this could be really exciting.
Anthony Richardson will produce some highlight reel plays, but also plenty of picks. Colts will still be bad this year.
Same story for the Texans but without a ton of hope on the horizon.
Jags, Titans, Texans, Colts.
AFC East
This is a fun division now.
Rodgers and Dalvin Cook to the Jets. A ton of young talent there already. But they're still the Jets, you know?
The Bills have gone from Super Bowl darling to not even the most hyped in their division.
The Dolphins are fun and if Tua could stay healthy would be a force to be reckoned with.
Which leaves Bill B in charge of the worst team in the division?
Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Pats.
AFC Playoff Picks
1 Chiefs
2 Bills
3 Jags
4 Bengals
5 Jets
6 Chargers
7 Steelers
NFC West
Cardinals suck.
49ers have a great team and are rolling with Brock Purdy.
Seahawks found a way to cook without Russ.
Rams still have memories of the Super Bowl win, that's something.
49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals.
NFC North
One of my favorite bits on Hoagie Central is that in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022 I just didn't mention the Lions at all. Even last year, I picked the Bears to finish last and didn't consider the Lions worth mentioning. Starting in 2019, I predicted the Lions to finish 4th, 4th, 4th, 3rd. They actually finished 4th, 4th, 4th, 2nd. But all that has changed.
Goff is a new man with the OC in Detroit and they've got the Sun God. Just figure out a way to block the gambling sites from the hotel wi-fi and this team could sniff the playoffs.
The Packers finally move on from Rodgers and will still probably be good.
The Bears have Fields. Now they just need to figure out how to win games.
The Vikings are always going to be good not great with this Cousins-Jefferson combo.
This is the closest division in my eyes. All four teams have a path to finishing first or last.
Since I have to guess, I think Bears finish last. If the Lions had less injuries/suspensions I might have them winning the division, but I'll guess 3rd this year, narrowly behind the Vikings. I've got a good feeling about Love. Packers 1st.
NFC South
This is the first year in a looooooong time that Tom Brady is not in the NFL. Wow.
Are any of these teams good?
Saints have Derek Carr, Falcons have Bijan. Panthers and Bucs have???
Let's go Falcons first, Saints second, Panthers third, Bucs last.
NFC East
I'm a huge believer in Super Bowl hangovers. The Eagles were great last year but they had an easy schedule and they've lost a ton of their defense. My Hurts stock has mooned and that's great, but Philly won't be winning 14 games this year.
Let Tony Pollard cook. Last year Cowboys were consensus favorite and I zagged thinking they couldn't win the division two years in a row. Now, I'm assuming Eagles are the favorite, so I'll go back to believing in Dallas.
I just saw the Giants win a playoff game and yet I refuse to believe in Danny Dimes and this team.
Commanders are starting the Sam Howell era. Good luck.
Cowboys first, Eagles, Giants, Commanders.
Still seems like there aren't any good teams in the NFC.
NFC Playoff Picks
1 49ers
2 Packers
3 Cowboys
4 Falcons
5 Eagles
6 Saints
7 Seahawks
Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas:
49ers over Chiefs
*This probably isn't true, but I'm not going to check. Also turns out just picking the Chiefs 4 years in a row once we found out Mahomes is great is a pretty good strategy.
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