Redemption at Arrowhead: Chiefs Advance to Super Bowl LVII

At so many points, it seemed like one team had all the momentum and then it would flip again, back and forth down to the wire. With a minute to go I thought the Bengals were going to win by 3, yet again.

The Chiefs were up 13-3 with the ball after intercepting Burrow. For the next hour, it was all Bengals, as they tied it up at 13-13. Chiefs immediately respond with a 77-yard touchdown drive including a successful challenge to turn a 4th and 1 into a first down. 

With 1 minute to go in the 3rd, Chiefs were driving up 20-13. They were in Bengals territory, looking to take a two-score lead. Disaster strikes. The ball slips out of Mahomes hand. Bengals get the ball and score. 20-20. 

Chiefs are now so depleted from injuries that they can't get across midfield even when gifted a mulligan, and they punt it away. With 7 minutes to go, the Chiefs rookies combine for a tipped interception. 

The Chiefs drive stalls at the Bengals 39 and they punt it away. It seemed like such a waste. But they were playing the field position game and trusting their defense. 

Bengals take over with 2:30 to go on their own 6. If Burrow drives down the field and they kick a game-winning field goal, then all of this becomes reality:

• They are in back-to-back Super Bowls.
• Burrow goes to 4-0 vs Mahomes, Bengals 4-game winning streak over Chiefs. 
• Joe Burrow I think becomes QB1 in the league. He may not have the MVPs, but by dominating Mahomes and two straight Super Bowl appearances (and no fierce NFC competition) I think this is true. 
• Bengals are 0-3 in the Super Bowl but would have another shot at the franchise's first title. 
• And they drop the Chiefs to 2-3 in AFC Title Games at home. 
• Arrowhead really starts to feel like Burrowhead.

Bengals convert a 3rd and 16 and it feels like the gut punch is coming. 

But with 41 seconds left, Chris Jones sacks Burrow on 3rd and 8. Jones starts waving goodbye. Romo is talking about that sack putting them in the Super Bowl. 

But I'm staring at the scoreboard. It's tied 20-20. There's 41 seconds left and they're punting from the CIN 28. Chiefs are depleted and have gone fumble-punt-punt on their last three drives.

And then they show that Skyy Moore is back to receive the punt. I freak out. The guy is a rookie and has muffed THREE punts this year. But Toney is out. Hardman is out. So Skyy Moore it is. 

All I can think about is him muffing this punt and the Bengals get the ball in field goal range. 

Cue Jeff Daniels in Dumb and Dumber: "Just when I think you couldn't possibly be any [muffer], you go and do something like this... and TOTALLY REDEEM YOURSELF!"

Skyy catches it cleanly while backpedalling to the KC 18, then explodes up the right sideline going out of bounds at the KC 47. 29 yards. (Shades of the rookie Hardman turning the playoff game vs Texans around with a huge return...where the Chiefs would go on to win the Super Bowl.)

But it's a cold night in Arrowhead. Feels like four degrees. So Butker's range is not 55-60. Chiefs need to get it under a 50 yarder. That means at least the CIN 32. Which means they need 21 yards. 30 seconds, one timeout.

Pacheco for 6. Timeout.

Incomplete.

Brings up 3rd down from the CIN 47. 17 seconds. No timeouts. Need 4 yards for the first down. But 15 for field goal range. So, so, so easily could send this game to overtime. 

3 receivers run routes. 7 initial blockers. 2 of the Chiefs blockers chip and then release for routes.

Bengals rushing four, dropping 7 into coverage. 

Mahomes escapes the pocket. Has a chance to throw it to Noah Gray, but instead directs traffic, and fresh off a one-week-old high ankle sprain, is scrambling for the first down. Makes it to the CIN 42 out of bounds with 8 seconds. (Crucial that he got out of bounds since KC had no timeouts.) Secures the first down but still 10 yards away from a 50-yard attempt with no timeouts and only 8 seconds left. 

It's going to be dicey. 

Except it's not. Ossai pushes Mahomes blatlantly out of bounds. 15 yards. 

Harrison Butker lines up for a 45-yarder in freezing cold temperatures. The guy who was missing extra points and field goals down the home stretch. 

Knocks it clean through and cue the confetti. 

- - -

So all that good stuff that could have happened for the Bengals. Strike all of that. 

Here's what actually happened. They got to the Super Bowl and lost and then didn't have enough to get back. Burrow has one year left on his rookie deal. Good luck keeping multiple stud receivers once Burrow gets paid. If I was a Bengals fan, I'd be pretty damn upset about not winning the Super Bowl last year when they had the chance. 

Instead, all that good stuff happened for KC. 

Before Mahomes, I had never seen the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. With him, they're there at home every year. (Those last two sentences combined are the most insane stat I know.)

5 Straight AFC Championships at Arrowhead.

Three times in 5 years, the fans got to see a confetti celebration and the Lamar Hunt Trophy presented to Clark Hunt. Three times in 5 years, opposing teams learned you don't really want to have to go through Arrowhead. 

The two times the Chiefs lost in the AFC Championship were both in Overtime. So that's the floor with Mahomes through five entire seasons. AFC Championship loss in overtime at minimum with 3 Super Bowl Appearances in 5 seasons.

Super Bowl 54: Chiefs are there

Super Bowl 55: Chiefs are there

Super Bowl 56: minor blip, Chiefs lost in overtime in AFC Title Game

Super Bowl 57: Chiefs are there

No more Bengals streak. Get out of here with Burrow 4-0 vs Mahomes. The Chiefs have solidified their claim as the AFC's best team. 

- - -

For me, this was all about REDEMPTION. 

So, so happy for Skyy Moore. I'm sure I wasn't the only fan scared to see him back there. Redemption for Reid and Toub for trusting Moore, giving him so many reps and faith. 

Redemption for Butker after having his worst season. Dude was 5/5 on 3 field goals and 2 xp. Needed every single one. Clutch.

How about Playoff Frank Clark.

How about MVS?! All season he averaged under 2.5 catches a game, 40 yards a game, and only scored twice. Tonight: 6 for 116 and caught a laser beam TD. When the pickings are slim, he lead the team in receiving.

And Mahomes. If he didn't pull it out at the end. All anyone would talk about was the 3rd quarter fumble. After watching Brock Purdy pull himself after getting knocked on the wrist, we just saw this dude grit his way through scrambling on a high ankle sprain. Throwing to nobodies and a triple-covered Kelce. 

Not bad for your first 5 seasons. 

- - -

The last AFC Championship the Chiefs won, they beat Buffalo by 14. 

Before that, the Chiefs beat the Titans by 11. 

This was the first time the Chiefs advanced to the Super Bowl by winning a game that came down to the wire. 

I've seen them lose two close ones, now I got to shout "We're going to the Super Bowl" out of genuine shock/awe/celebration. 

I know what it feels like to win and lose a Super Bowl. And I have no idea what will happen in two weeks. But I'm sure not taking this for granted. 

All the other AFC teams spent a billion dollars trying to dethrone the Chiefs and here we are. 

Super Bowl 57. Super Bowl LVII.

We started our season in Arizona and now we're ending it there. 

Hmmm...opened as a two point underdog. I like that. 

What's At Stake? Conference Championship Edition

There's a lot on the line on Sunday. Let's go team-by-team. 

Cincinnati Bengals

If they win on Sunday, they are in back-to-back Super Bowls.

Burrow goes to 4-0 vs Mahomes, Bengals 4-game winning streak over Chiefs. 

Joe Burrow I think becomes QB1 in the league. He may not have the MVPs, but by dominating Mahomes and two straight Super Bowl appearances (and no fierce NFC competition) I think this is true. 

Bengals are 0-3 in the Super Bowl but would have another shot at the franchise's first title. 

If they lose, they would start feeling snake-bit, that they don't have enough to get over the final hump. They'd be regretting how they missed their chance in last year's Super Bowl.

Kansas City Chiefs

If they win on Sunday, that makes 3 Super Bowl appearances in 4 seasons. With the one exception being an overtime loss in last year's AFC title game. 

They exorcise the demons of the Bengals/Burrow hold over them. 

A shot for many coaches and players to get to 2 rings, which really becomes rarified air. 

If they lose, hosting 5 AFC Championship games but only going 2-3 doesn't feel that good. 

- - -

Okay, so that's what at stake for Sunday...but what about the Super Bowl legacy? One of these four will be written. 

Bengals

Joe Burrow leads Cinci to its first ever Super Bowl title. In the process, proved he owns Mahomes and the Chiefs and possibly gets revenge on the 49ers for the previous Super Bowl losses. Get to write themselves as a true underdog success story. Build Burrow a statue.

49ers

Shanahan gets to move on from 28-3. Kittle and Bosa get revenge/redemption from losing Super Bowl LIV. Purdy becomes a 10-0 Super Bowl Champion rookie. Gets the best Mr. Irrelevant trophy forever. 

Eagles

Sirianni wins the Super Bowl in his 2nd season as a Head Coach. Becomes the next McVay in terms of young prestige coach. Hurts stakes his claim as elite QB and MVP candidate. Jason Kelce wins his 2nd ring. Two titles for the Eagles in six years. It's not a dynasty, but they become the most successful team of the last six years. 

Chiefs

Mahomes wins his second league MVP and second Super Bowl at 27. Andy Reid joins the list of multi-ring Coaches. Two for Travis Kelce. Tyreek Hill seems less and less part of the winning equation. Two titles for the Chiefs in four years. They become the gold standard for the league, the team that every other team is chasing.

It all sounds like a fairy tale. One of these will happen. Three will not.

Arrowhead Invitational

Any time you can do something good that's never been done before, that's a pretty good feeling.

5 years of Mahomes on the Chiefs. 5 years of hosting the AFC Championship at Arrowhead. 

What's wilder is how rare getting to host one is for the Chiefs. The AFC Championship was created in 1970. From 1970 to 2017, the Chiefs got to be in exactly one of those 47 games. 1993 on the road in Buffalo and they lost 30-13. 

The team with the saddest AFC Championship resume pairs Reid with Mahomes and earns the right to host it five years in a row. It's insane. 

LOOK AT THIS LIST. That was current as of November 2018. 

Peyton Manning made the AFC Championship 5 times in 18 seasons. He was an automatic first-ballot Hall of Famer that the committee spent 13 seconds discussing his enshrinement. 

Mahomes is now 5 appearances in 5 seasons. 

Considering what being a Chiefs was like for my whole life, it's really hard to wrap my head around this. All I can do is be incredibly thankful. And support every product that Mahomes advertises. 

Andy Reid is #2 in playoff wins and next year will become #4 in all wins. Absolutely a Mount Rushmore coach. And KC is where he became a champion. You gotta love it.

The Super Bowl Possibilites

Four Possible Super Bowl Matchups

Chiefs vs Eagles (Andy Reid vs old team, Kelce vs Kelce)

Chiefs vs 49ers (rematch of Super Bowl LIV)

Bengals vs Eagles (Ohio vs Pennsylvania)

Bengals vs 49ers (rematch of Super Bowl XVI and XXIII)

If I had to rank those storylines it would be:

1. Chiefs vs Eagles

2. Bengals vs 49ers

3. Chiefs vs 49ers

4. Bengals vs Eagles

How would it affect our Calcutta

Chiefs over Eagles = Mark win

Eagles over Chiefs = Dave win

Chiefs over 49ers = Mark big win

49ers over Chiefs = Mark big win

Bengals over Eagles = Dave win

Eagles over Bengals = Dave win

Bengals over 49ers = Mark win

49ers over Bengals = Mark win

buffaLo biLLs

Where to begin with the Buffalo Bills?

Let's start with that they were the most overhyped team I can remember. 

Almost everyone at The Ringer had the Bills as the Super Bowl pick. Josh Allen for MVP too.

But it wasn't only The Ringer. NFL.com writers were drinking the Bills kool-aid.

The Bills were so legendary, a hot topic in September was if they would go undefeated:

Let's take a look at how the Josh Allen era has gone for them in the playoffs:

2019: Wild-Card Loss to Texans

2020: AFC Championship Loss to Chiefs

2021: Divisional Round Loss to Chiefs

2022: Divisional Round Loss to Bengals

This is the closest they've gotten to seeing an AFC Championship celebration:

Let's check in on their fanbase real quick:

Buffalo Jaguars managed to go 0-2 in a single weekend.

The weirdest part about Josh Allen being a Choke Artist is how few people have caught on to that reality. 

The ceiling for Josh Allen so far has been losing in the AFC Championship game. 

That's the floor for Mahomes. 

So anytime anybody wants to compare the two, just remember Mahomes' floor is Allen's ceiling.

NFL Playoffs Preview

Here's your updated Super Bowl odds for the 5 teams with odds under 10 to 1, with the Calcutta owner.

Chiefs +330 (Mark)

Bills +420 (Kirat)

Eagles +500 (Dave)

49ers +550 (Mark)

Bengals +750 (Niraj)

Vegas thinks the Vikings are frauds and are happy to offer +3200 odds for anyone to bet on the #3 seed in the NFC. 

I mean sure, there's Tom Brady you can never actually count him out, but according to the odds, the NFC Championship is going to be 49ers at Eagles and the AFC Championship is going to be one of Bills and Bengals vs the Chiefs. 

If the Chiefs were to make it, they would either get a 49ers Super Bowl rematch or a Kelce vs Kelce, Andy Reid vs former team matchup. 

- - - 

Here's your Wild-Card Round Schedule, with Calcutta owners and opening betting lines:

Saturday

Seahawks MARK at 49ers MARK -6.5

Chargers MATT at Jaguars DAVE +2.5

Sunday

Dolphins MATT at Bills KIRAT -10.5

Giants KIRAT at Vikings DAVE -3

Ravens DAVE at Bengals NIRAJ -6

Monday

Cowboys DAVE at Bucs NIRAJ +3

Byes: Chiefs MARK, Eagles DAVE

Chiefs Playoff Preview

In August, it was trendy for people to pick Chiefs make the playoffs. The Bills were the AFC favorite and the Chargers were the trendy pick to win the AFC West. 

Well, it's playoff time and the Chiefs are your #1 seed once again. 

If we assume the Bills and Bengals both win next week, Chiefs get to host either the Jaguars or Chargers in Arrowhead on January 21 or 22. 

Get past that matchup and they'll be playing in the AFC Championship on January 29. Either hosting the Bengals in Arrowhead or facing the Bills on a neutral field. 

That Bills-Bengals game will be nuts. I fully expect Damar Hamlin to be hyping up Buffalo with a pre-game appearance and the crowd will be insane.

Either opponent will be dangerous for KC. Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and they came in to our house last year and beat us. When Bengals play at their best they are excellent on both sides of the ball — while the Chiefs defense is not as strong. Similar comparison for the Bills as they have a top offense and defense. If they are riding a 3-game winning streak post-Hamlin injury and are on a neutral site, they could easily be favored by Vegas. 

The bye is a huge, huge advantage though as it ensures KC only has to play one of Bills/Bengals. If it's every bit of the physical drama-filled game, the winner could be worn out by the time they have to play KC. 

With KC's defense not being as strong as either the Bills or Bengals, it will be a difficult path to the Super Bowl no matter what. Our best advantage though is that we have the MVP of the league and they don't. 

Potential Super Bowls

Andy Reid Matchup: Chiefs vs Eagles

Wings vs Cheesesteaks: Bills vs Eagles

Super Bowl IV Rematch: Chiefs vs Vikings 

Cursed Franchises Seeking First Super Bowl: Bills vs Vikings

Dallas Franchises: Chiefs vs Cowboys

Super Bowl XXVII and XXVII Rematch: Bills vs Cowboys

Super Bowl LIV Rematch: Chiefs vs 49ers (Mahomes vs the GOAT)

MAHOMES IS INEVITABLE: Birthday Win over Chargers

When the Chargers scored with 1:46 left, they put up a graphic. 

Chargers expected win percentage: 74%
Chiefs expected win percentage: 26%

I laughed. Do they know who the Chiefs quarterback is? My concern was not whether Patrick Lavon Mahomes was going to go down the field and score. The only concern was would they leave the Chargers too much time. 

Remember when Chargers were so excited to beat the Chiefs in the regular season that they printed t-shirts? LOL. 

Mahomes and Kelce were fired up after that score. I hope somebody was mic'd up. 

Winning my birthday game is always the #1 regular season I want to win. Thank you, Patrick. Excellent birthday present. Best QB in the league does it again. 

Mahomes to Kelce for 3 TDs. The Hat Trick for Patrick. 

Great Football Day

The title of this post should be Josh Allen Choke Artist. While that is true, there was so many good things that happened today, I'll be generous. 

First up, the Chiefs. 

In the start of every season you see all these stats about how ridiculous Mahomes is in September. Then today they start the November/December stats:

So the only month where defenses have a chance is October, got it. 

Today Chiefs win easy. Mahomes already the MVP frontrunner puts up 331 and 4 tds. They're the only AFC team with only 2 losses. But that's not all that happened today:

The Raiders lost to the Colts coached by someone with no coaching experience. Now 2-7. Just win baby.

The Broncos lost to the Titans. Let's ride to 3-6. (Russell Wilson put a QBR today of 22.3.)

The Chargers lost in primetime. Preseason favorites, regular season frauds. 

And the Bills got the inspired double choke by one of the best choke artists in the league. After your defense bails you out with a goal line stand, you fumble in the end zone AND throw a pick in the end zone. Truly chef's kiss. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are alone in first place in the AFC. 

The Buffalo Bills are currently in 3rd place in the AFC East. 

Sometimes deleted tweets are the best tweets.

Here's your updated standings. 

And here's the overall league standings:

The first two are my Calcutta teams and the third is the Chiefs. That Vikings win over Buffalo was doubly sweet.

The Mahomes for MVP Game

Coming into Sunday Night Football, there was a logjam of 5 and 6 win teams. Buffalo lost so the 1-seed is back in play, but there are 9 teams with 5 wins. Meaning that if the Chiefs lost, they could suddenly be thinking about just making the playoffs. 

In short, this was a big one.

After taking a 9-0 lead against a team with no passer, things seemed pretty great. Until King Henry made it 14-9 in the blink of an eye and the Chiefs started to stall. 

The Titans were doubling Kelce and getting pressure on Pat. Receivers are dropping passes. Butker is missing kicks. Mahomes is getting sacked. And then there's the inaccurate pass that Kelce tried to reach for it and it became a tip drill—interception. 

There's 10 minutes left and the Chiefs are down 8. They take over on their own 7. 

They pick up a few first downs but then take a sack on 2nd and 10. It's 3rd and 17. 

Wait. Hold everything. Where have I seen this before?

Oh yeah: 

Yesterday it was two less points but two more yards to go. Roughly the same spot on the field. And the time. It was 7:13 in both games. 

(Yesterday it was a running clock. SNF was fading back from graphics so at 7:13 the shot wasn't in focus yet, but it was 7:13 in both games.)

This is the point yesterday and in Super Bowl LIV that Mahomes put the team on his back and said we're not losing this game.

He made the biggest plays of regulation with his feet. And then in Overtime on 3rd and inches does this:

Here's your updated standings:

Bills and Chiefs are only teams with 2 losses in the AFC. Bills have tiebreakers over Chiefs, Chiefs have tiebreaker over Titans. 

Allen and Hurts still have strong MVP cases and there's more than half the season left to decide things, but I'll tell you this with 100% confidence: there is no other player in the league I'd rather have than Mahomes.

Tuesday Update: New Vegas odds for MVP have Mahomes, then Hurts, then Allen as a top 3. Tua is 4th but a tier below. Tyreek is 10th, the highest non-QB.

AFC West Shitpost

There will be some out there who say, "You know, the Chiefs won the Super Bowl and have at least 10 more years of Patrick Mahomes, they've won the division six years in a row and are about to make it seven...don't you think you're above all this (gestures to shitposting)?

No. I don't think I am. 

Let's start with the Oakland Raiders.

Their mantra is Just Win Baby but at the end of September they were the only 0-3 team in the league. They're currently 2-5 and 0-4 on the road. 

They made a big move giving up a first and second round pick to get Davante Adams. There was all this hype that Adams was going to reunite with his college QB David Derek Carr and it was going to be offensive fireworks. More like offensive to anybody who likes scoring. 

The 2-5 Saints shutout the Raiders last week. Come for the beautiful scoreline, stay for the delusional fan.

Fair enough guy. I won't come to the parade. 

By the way, do they have a parade for missing the playoffs?

True Story: The Raiders lost Super Bowl 37 and haven't won a playoff game since. 20 years.

- - -

Real quick, we can touch on the Chargers, sort of a palate cleanser. 

People at The Ringer are desperate to put Herbert on the same level as Mahomes and Allen. Let's check the tape:

This year the Chargers are 4-3 but have a division worst -25 plus/minus. 

Brian Robinson got shot and made it back on the field before Keenan Allen. 

Wake me up when Herbert wins a playoff game.

- - -

And then we get to the Denver Broncos. 

This team signed Russell Wilson to a five-year, $245 Million contract two months ago. This shit aged like yogurt. 

Hilarious that he's bad on the field and getting mocked by everyone for being corny off the field. I've never seen current NFL players mocking someone like they are now. 

All being lead by the guru Nathaniel Hackett. 

What's hilarious is I didn't ever believe in Russell Wilson being a tier one QB, but he did bring me a lot of joy when the Seahawks beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl. And now he's bad on the Broncos, and a financial casualty, and corny as shit. It's the best of both worlds.

NFL Top Ten Records Are Wild

If you sort by best records in the NFL right now, this is what you get:

These are the only teams with a record above .500.

This is insane. The Colts and Titans are bad. The Jets and Giants are bad. 

Top three teams in the league are Bills, Eagles, Chiefs. Who is the 4th best team?

The 5-1 Vikings? Have they looked good in one game yet?

The fraud Giants? The injured Chargers or Cowboys?

I think the Ravens are better than the Vikings. Are the 3-3 Ravens the 4th best team? What about the 3-3 Dolphins if they get a healthy Tua back? What about the Bucs?

This is nuts.

MNF: Raiders at Chiefs

This game had it all. 

First a little context. Here's Mahomes record coming into the game vs AFC West teams. Typically, divisional games are close. You're familiar with each other so it's hard to catch anyone off guard. 

The Raiders have beaten Mahomes once. The Chargers twice. The Broncos never. 

- - -

The beginning of this game was all Raiders. Still without Butker, the Chiefs missed a 41-yard field goal and it was 17-0 Raiders early. Vegas was dominating on the line on both sides of the ball. 

At 14-0, Raiders had a 4th and 1 from the KC 34. They lined up to go for it. I was praying for a momentum-changing stop. Instead they kicked the field goal, making it a three-score game.

But in a sense, that was a 3rd down stop by the defense. An opening for the offense. 75-yard drive capped off by a throw to Kelce. 17-7 in the second quarter. 

Ensuing drive, is the momentum-changing play of the game. Carr is strip-sacked on 3rd and 8. Here's the video. The Chiefs will have the ball on the Raiders 40 with over a minute to go. From here you expect the Chiefs to go into halftime either at 17-14 or 17-10. Instead, the refs call a roughing the passer penalty. 

It provokes the loudest and most sustained booing from a crowd that I've ever heard. 

The Raiders end up kicking a field goal with 17 seconds left in the half, 20-7. 

The Bills learned in January that 13 seconds is too much time for Mahomes. The Raiders learned tonight that 17 is also too much time for Mahomes. 

20-10 at the half. 

Three drives later it's 24-20 Chiefs. Ever since the terrible call on Chris Jones, the crowd was into it, the refs were shook, and the Chiefs were cruising. 

At 30-23, the Chiefs were celebrating Kelce's record 4th TD and were a 2-point conversion away from making it a two-score game with 7 minutes to go. At this point, the game seemed like a party. 

KC had scored on 5 straight possessions. But that might not be enough. 

Adams burned the KC secondary again and all of a sudden it's 30-29 with about 4 minutes left. 

KC finally punts and the Raiders have 2:30 left and only need a field goal. Not feeling confident in the defense. 

On a 3rd and 1, the ruling on the field was Adams caught a 15 yard pass to put LV in field goal range. But the replay showed he didn't have possession until he was out of bounds.

So that brings up 4th and 1. This game is on a razor's edge. Carr throws up a deep ball and there's a moment where it's possible for Adams to maybe get to it. And then this happens:

I had to make this gif because I will never get tired of watching it.

- - -

Absolutely wild that Mahomes is now 23-3 against division opponents. What a great feeling to have every team in the division living in fear of you. 

- - -

One more layer to this. Back in 2019, a writer for the Athletic pointed out how Mahomes was on pace to crush Aikman's career TD totals. Aikman didn't like that and replied:

Of course, that very season Mahomes would win a Super Bowl. 

Well, last night Mahomes passed Aikman for career touchdowns, while not yet reaching half the number of games played. And who was calling the game? Buck and Aikman. They did not acknowledge the milestone.

- - -

On a night where Kelce got me a big fantasy win and is setting franchise TE records, and Mahomes is passing Aikman for TDs, it would have been a real shame to lose at the end and tarnish the night. 

- - -

Going to bed last night, I once again reflected on how lucky/fortunate I am as a sports fan now and what an absolute turn around it's been. 

For decades sports just seemed like one of those "we'll get 'em next year" things where I'm just always going to live with pain and "what ifs." And then the Chiefs get Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. And the Avalanche win the Cup. And even Illinois is doing well in football and basketball at the moment, and it's just wild to see. 

- - - 

This MNF game immediately goes in the books as one of my favorites. Which got me thinking, there have been a lot of favorites since we got Mahomes (see previous paragraph). Since I can't have double digit favorites, I'll just refer to them as Elite Wins, ones that really made my whole week or month. Let's go back and identify some of these.

Elite Wins since 2016

2016: Mile High Magic

2017: Chiefs Take Down Champs

Mahomes Era Begins

2018: Mahomes Left-Hand vs Broncos, 4th and 9 Comeback vs Ravens

2019: Beat Brady in Gillette, Playoff Comeback vs Texans, Super Bowl LIV

2020: Raiders Birthday Comeback

2021: Comeback vs Chargers on TNF, 13 Seconds

2022: Refs Hate Chris Jones, Mahomes Takes Over vs Titans, Mahomes is Inevitable vs Chargers, Mahomes on One Leg vs Bengals AFC Championship, Super Bowl LVII

2023: 3-0 vs Bills in Playoffs, AFC Championship in Baltimore, Super Bowl LVIII

Chiefs Blast Bucs

Clearly inspired by Yom Teruah, the Chiefs went out and blasted the Bucs on Sunday Night Football. One of my favorite things is opening up Twitter and seeing a timeline of mostly national voices going nuts over Mahomes. 

By the way, winning the AFC West this year would be the Chiefs seventh consecutive division title. That would tie the 1973-1979 Rams for second-longest streak of all time. (First place: 11 consecutive titles for the 09-19 Patriots.)

Speaking of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes just Fetty Wapped Tom Brady in Tampa.

Week 1 Knee Jerk Reactions

Week 1 is not yet in the books, so what better time to overreact?!

The Bills and Chiefs are the two best teams in the league. They will meet in the AFC Championship game. Mahomes or Allen will be the MVP of the league. Bills at Chiefs in Week 6 will determine who hosts the AFC Championship. 

As predicted right here, the Bengals will have a Super Bowl loss hangover season and Ravens will win the AFC North. 

As predicted right here, the Vikings will win the NFC North. Vikings and Eagles are early favorites to meet in the NFC Championship.

2022 NFL Preview

Let's get to it. 

AFC West

The most loaded division in the league is one I know well.

The floor for the Chiefs in the Mahomes era is an overtime loss at home in the AFC Championship. The ceiling is a Super Bowl win. 

Meanwhile, Herbert is absolutely the real deal and the Chargers will be right in the mix. The Broncos added Russ Wilson so that will be interesting. And the Raiders have Carr but they've added Davante Adams. 

All four teams should be good which means it will be hard for any team to get to 13 wins.

I think it's Chiefs-Chargers-Raiders-Broncos, but it will be very close, every team between 8 and 12 wins.

AFC North

Easiest thing on the board to predict is Super Bowl Hangover. Sorry Bengals. They were a 10-7 team that overachieved. 9-8 feels right for them. 

The Steelers don't have a QB. And the Browns won't have one until week 13.

Ravens winning this division seems like easy money. 

I like Ravens as only playoff team from this division. Bengals, Steelers and Browns should all be mediocre, between 6-9 wins. 

AFC South

An interesting but flawed division. Titans have Tannehill and Henry but no AJ Brown. The Colts have had a good GM and roster but no quarterback since Luck left. Enter 37-year old Matt Ryan. Texans are rebuilding and Jaguars will be better but probably just frisky, not good yet. 

I think it's Colts-Titans-Jaguars-Texans. Though Davis Mills showed promise. So I wouldn't be completely shocked if they show signs of life.

AFC East

Bills are great. Patriots are good. Dolphins have life and a Cheetah. And the Jets suck. 

Bills-Pats-Dolphins-Jets.

AFC Playoff Picks

1 Bills

2 Ravens

3 Chiefs

4 Colts

5 Chargers

6 Pats

7 Raiders

NFC West

Rams are defending champs. 49ers are starting the Trey Lance era. Seahawks are starting over without Russ. And Cardinals have a QB that needs a homework clause and Hopkins is missing 6 games. 

Rams narrowly ahead of 49ers, narrowly ahead of Cardinals. Seahawks last. 

NFC North

Packers still have Rodgers but don't have Adams. 

Bears are early on in their rebuild phase with Fields

And Vikings have a lot of talent but do you pick a team with Cousins ahead of a team with Rodgers?

Bears will finish in last place. I'll pick Vikings narrowly ahead of Packers, but both to make the playoffs.

NFC South

Falcons are starting the post-Matt Ryan era with Mariota. Panthers are having a qb competition between Baker and Darnold. I think the lasik-Winston Saints could be interesting. And then there's a 45-year-old QB in Tampa. 

Tampa's probably better than the Saints, but at some point Brady has to show signs of being human, no?

Fine. Bucs, Saints at the top, Falcons and Panthers at the bottom.

NFC East

Danny Dimes. 

Wentz.

Hurts.

Dak.

Seems too easy to stay it'll be a repeat of last year, but that's still what I think. Dak is better than Hurts, but do we really trust the Cowboys to win the division twice in a row. 

So let's say Eagles just ahead of Cowboys, Commanders and Giants in the distance.

NFC Playoff Picks

1 Bucs

2 Rams

3 Vikings

4 Eagles

5 Packers

6 Saints

7 49ers

Super Bowl LVII in Arizona:

Chiefs over Vikings