Vegas Sportsbook Recap 2024

So I did go to Vegas last weekend and basically came out even. Had some good winners (Jaguars under 17.5 points, Worthy under 2.5 receptions, Chargers -6.5, Bills -4, Eagles -6.5) some bad losers (Saquon over 120 rushing yards, my five team parlays) and some devastating close calls (Lions-3.5 and I would have won $92 if Hopkins had gotten one more reception. He had 3 catches in the first half and only 1 in the second half.)

The DOs and DONTs I wrote last year were pretty spot on, I just chose to do some parlays anyway and of course they didn't pan out.

But it was a ton of fun and coming out even is better than having a terrible day. Here are my pictures from the rest of the weekend.

16oz ribeye at Lago

Quad sevens on a 12x multiplier, winning $75 on a $1.50 machine.

Pictures from Vegas

Sportsbook DOs and DONTs

There's really no better feeling than sitting in a sportsbook eating buffalo wings and going 7 for 7 on your bets. You feel like you really know ball. 

So while it's fresh, I wanted to make my notes to future Dave, what lessons I've learned. 

DOs and DON'Ts

DO focus on the quarterbacks

I made money going against Tim Boyle and Joe Flacco. 

DO some fantasy bets

I pay more attention to fantasy throughout the year than anything, so I had a pretty good feeling that Stroud would throw for yards and that Tyreek would get 100 yards and a score. 

DON'T try to be a hero with too many +400 bets

The big moneyline parlay ticket was fun, but in general, combining too many things looking for a home run ticket is a waste of money. 

DO check the weather

The Cards/Steelers under was helped by a rainstorm. 

DON'T be afraid to adjust the line a little

I'd rather take a team minus -2.5 than -3, or +7.5 than +6.5. The vig doesn't change that much. I had good luck with it. 

DO go against the worst teams

This seems obvious. But this doesn't mean take the best teams. The Eagles, Chiefs and Jaguars all lost this weekend. The best teams are not locks. But going against the worst teams are a good way to make money.

DON'T parlay spread bets

I learned this the hard way two months ago. There's too many times where teams make decisions based on winning the game and don't care about the spread. (Often a heavy favorite (like -11.5) up 17 will give up a late touchdown because they don't care. This weekend the Broncos were a field goal away from covering and in field goal range, but they didn't take it because they trailed by 5.)

DON'T try to be a hero. again.

I thought my 3-team moneyline parlays looked good. Both tickets went 2-1 which is worthless. It would have been better to have 2-team parlays. Winning tickets is fun. In the moment, you don't really care if it's a -140 or a +130. It's just fun to have winning tickets.

Best Sportsbook Day Ever

I ended up making lots of bets. 17 in the end. Let's break it down. 

1st Wave

I had marked some games all week. As soon as I got to Vegas, I was ready to make these:

-110 Falcons -2

-110 Chiefs -6

-139 Cardinals +7.5

-105 Eagles +3

-117 Stroud over 269 passing yards

+158 Dolphins/Bucs/Chiefs to win

The Cardinals line was either 5.5 or 6.5, so I paid a little extra vig to slide that number up to 7.5. I didn't think the Steelers could win by more than a touchdown.

2nd Wave

I sat around watching Georgia/Alabama and trying to research if I should bet anything on the Michigan/Iowa or the Florida State game. The two bets I was going to make: Under 30 in Michigan/Iowa and Florida State -2.5. I talked myself out of the first one because I didn't think I knew enough, and the 2nd one I went as far as hitting confirm bet...but it told me the line shifted to FSU -3.5. I took that as a sign that I shouldn't do it. Both would have won. 

But I added some more NFL action. Four $10 parlay bets. 

+230 Dolphins win, Tyreek TD, Tyreek 100 yards

+225 Purdy 2+ pass TDs, Aiyuk TD

+490 Kyler TD, Frymouth over 34 receiving yards

+1100 Chiefs -6, Over 43, Rice TD, Over 43 Rice yards, 2+ Mahomes pass TDs

The Kyler/Frymouth was one that I found on Twitter and both seemed reasonable. And then I wanted something fun to watch for in the Chiefs game so I did the last one.

3rd Wave

Then I went to talk bets with Aunt Paula. We both liked the Colts so talking to her confirmed that one for me. We talked about how we liked the Texans offense this year, so she talked me into that one. Instead of taking them at -3, I moved it to -2.5. I never pay attention to unders, but Paula brought up a few over/unders and I thought that Cards/Steelers would be a 16-10 game so under 41 sounded good. And then we started talking about Flacco, and I was like, you know I gotta bet against Flacco. The Rams line was -3.5 and I actually bumped it up to -6.5. 

-133 Texans -2.5 

-110 Colts PK

-110 Under 41 in Cardinals/Steelers

+114 Rams -6.5 

+232 Steelers, Rams, Texans to win

+2972 Falcons, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Bucs, Rams, Chiefs to win

She liked the Steelers quite a bit to win. I knew I already had Cardinals +7.5. And I kinda thought Pittsburgh was going to win by 3...so I thought either as a hedge or perhaps a middle, that I could do the Steelers moneyline in a parlay with Rams and Texans. 

And then just for fun, the very last bet of Saturday night, I put the 8 teams that I felt the best about winning together. $20 bet to win $594, collect $614. 

- - - 

Okay, so I show up at the sportsbook, 10am Vegas time. 

Early Games

I write all my bets for the early games, ignoring the longshots. 

So I had a paper with:

Falcons -2

Colts PK

Cardinals +7.5

Stroud 269 pass yards

Cards/Steelers under

Texans -2.5

I'm watching and things are going pretty well. Stroud has 149 passing yards in the 1st quarter. Cardinals are winning but it's still low scoring. Texans are winning big. Falcons were actually up 2, right on the number, and the Colts were trailing by 7, but still in it. So at halftime, I think I was on pace for 4-1-1. 

And then my +230 Dolphins bet comes through. Tyreek has his yards and TD and the Dolphins are up 20. So I go ahead and write that one on my paper. 

And then there are moments where things turn for the worse.

Stroud gets to 260 pass yards and then gets hurt. Davis Mills is in at QB. 

Titans who were down 6, score a TD with 5 minutes left.

The Broncos are driving down the field to win. 

The Jets keep getting the ball back down only 5. 

Things are dicey. 

And then Stroud comes back in and throws a 14-yard pass. Cashing my over.

The Titans miss the XP and we're going to overtime.

The Broncos throw an interception and they lose by 5. Cashing my Texans bet.

The Falcons defense hangs on. Cashes. 

The Colts go on to win in OT. Cash.

And then the Cardinals win but don't go over. Double cash.

I look down at my paper from the early game. 7 bets. 7 winners. 

Unbelievable. I'm sending money bag emojis to my wife. By my rough calculations those 7 bets have already won my entire budget back. Any wins from here on out are pure profit. 

And then I check on the longshots. 

So the Steelers moneyline bet is dead. And the Kyler/Frymouth bet didn't hit. So I'm really 7-2 at this point. And then I look at my ridiculous 8-leg parlay. Falcons, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Dolphins all won. The $600 bet only needs Bucs, Rams and Chiefs to win. Ummmm...

Late Games

Here's what I write down for the late games. 

Eagles +3

Rams -6.5

Purdy 2tds, Aiuyk td

Bucs/Rams/Chiefs (remaining on the 8-leg)

Bucs/Chiefs (remaining on the 3-leg)

I mean, I'm watching all of them, but I'm really watching the Bucs and Rams. If they can win, I'm a Chiefs win away from collecting $1000 today. 

The Eagles bet goes south in the 2nd quarter, but the Purdy bet hits. That one was +225 so that's all good with me. 

And long story short, the Rams cover the -6.5 and the Bucs beat the Panthers too. 

So in the late window: 2 winners, 1 loser, but the moneyline parlays are still alive. 

I'm 9-3. I've got two Chiefs bets yet to come. But most importantly, I'm a Chiefs win away from cashing both of these:

On the board, the Chiefs are a -250 moneyline to win before kickoff. And I'm holding a $40 +158 ticket and a $20 +2972 ticket for them to win. 

I've never been in this situation. I make the call to hedge. 

4th Wave

The Packers are a +200 moneyline. I still had $40 cash in my pocket. I figure if I cash those two tickets above, I won't sweat a $40 loss. But if the Packers win and ruin both tickets, then I'll at least collect $120 and profit $80. 

Sunday Night Football

I've had the best gambling day ever at this point. 9-3 including two bets over +200. 

And now I get to watch my team. They're a 6-point favorite but all I need them to do is win and I'll be collecting an additional $717. 

- - -

Everything to this point has been really fun to type out. 

Woof. 

The first half was ugly. The Chiefs score a td in the 3rd quarter but can't get the two-point conversion and remain trailing by 2, 12-14. It's a really awful number to be trailing by, as any Packers TD makes it a two-possession game. Packers make it 21-12 by converting a ridiculous 4th down deep pass. Chiefs answer back 19-21. With 6 minutes left, GB gets a field goal. They're up 24-19. Chiefs have the ball. They can drive down the field and score with little time left. 

I'm shouting to run the ball, get some yards, bleed some clock. 

Pass.

Pass.

Pass. Intercepted. 

That's the ball game. 

There was plenty of game to play out, but that was it. 

Chiefs lose. My two Chiefs bets lose. And it ruins both parlay tickets. No $717 to collect. This game brought me to 9-7. 

Except that I did hedge. 

So I'm actually 10-7. 

I collected $120 at the Bellagio.

I collected $367 at Paris. 

So that's $487 in my pocket after betting $360. A sportsbook profit of $127 on a $360 budget. 

If the Chiefs had pulled it out, I would have collected $0 at Bellagio but $1084 at Paris. For a profit of $724 on a $360 budget. Would have tripled my stack. 

- - -

Of course, there's the alternate scenario where I didn't hedge. I would have been 9-7. Takeaway that last $120 win and my profit would have only been $7 for going 9-7. 

- - -

What can you say? It was my own Super Bowl Champion team that ruined a $1000 day. What could have been. But in the end, it's hard to come out even a little ahead. So to come out over $100 ahead betting $10 and $20 at a time, a 35% profit, that's pretty great. 

And the only reason I was in the position to make the hedge, was that those first 7 legs came through. I lost $60 on those two big moneyline tickets, but the hedge profited $80. So all in all, I still made money on those three tickets combined. If the Colts hadn't won in OT (or any of the other first seven) I couldn't have hedged and it would have been a break even day. 

If you go back and look, I was 3-3 in the first wave.

I was 2-2 on the 2nd wave going for longshots.

Ignoring the big parlay for a second, I went 4-1 in the third wave after talking to Paula. 

And then the big parlay + the hedge, was how I made all my profit. So the third wave is really where I made my money.

Here's my follow-up post with lessons learned.

HC Sportsbook Recap

 Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN

$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS

$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $286.36

Week 2 Bet Recap

$100 on 49ers -4 WIN

$100 on Bengals +5.5 WIN

$50 on Jags +8.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $477.27

Week 3 Bets

$100 on Under 46.5 in Eagles/49ers WIN

$50 on all players to score TD: CMC, Chase, Kelce, AJ Brown at +1640 LOSS

Invested: $150

Outcome: $190.91

Super Bowl Bets

$50 on MVP Mahomes +130 WIN

$50 on MVP Hurts +130 LOSS

$150 Mahomes Passing Yards Under 294.5 WIN

$5o on exactly 2 Mahomes passing TDs +230 LOSS

$50 on exactly 3 Mahomes passing TDs +360 WIN

Invested: $350

Outcome: $631.36

I had my best week yet in the Super Bowl. Those odds for Mahomes to throw 2-3 touchdowns seemed way too easy before the game and they seem way too easy in hindsight. My big bet was on under passing yards and it wasn't close. And betting the QB to win MVP is pretty easy money.

FINAL TOTAL

Invested: $1000

Final Balance: $1585.90

Profit: $585.90

HC Sportsbook - Week 3

Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN

$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS

$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $286.36

Week 2 Bet Recap

$100 on 49ers -4 WIN

$100 on Bengals +5.5 WIN

$50 on Jags +8.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Outcome: $477.27

So far I'm 5-1, the only loss being believing in the fraud Bills.

Invested: $500

Currently: $763.63

Last week I was really confident. This week is quite a bit harder.

Week 3 Bets

$100 on Under 46.5 in Eagles/49ers

$50 on all players to score TD: CMC, Chase, Kelce, AJ Brown at +1640

I'm going to save the other $100 for the Super Bowl.

Sportsbook: Week 2

Week 1 Bet Recap:

$50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110 WIN

$100 on Bills -10.5 LOSS

$100 on Bengals -6.5 WIN

Invested: $250

Currently: $286.36

Week 2 Bets

$100 on 49ers -4

$100 on Bengals +5.5

$50 on Jags +8.5

Playoff Sportsbook

Let's look at some teasers just for fun.

2-team teaser (6 point tease)

49ers -4 AND Bills -4.5

3-team teaser (10 point tease)

49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5

3-teamer actually looks tastier.

Let's say I have a budget for $250 each week of the playoffs. After the playoffs can I take my balance above $1000 and turn an imaginary profit?

So I'll start with $50 on 49ers PK AND Bills -.5 AND Bengals +3.5 at -110. 

I'll update with where I'm placing the rest of my $200 later this week.

Alright. $100 on Bills -10.5 and $100 on Bengals -6.5. 

Vegas Sportsbook Getaway

For as long as I've know Brittany's Aunt Paula we've bonded over our shared love of football and gambling. We've talked forever about meeting up in Vegas to spend a NFL Sunday in the sportsbook. We had plans in 2020. Well, we finally made it happen. 

Let me rewind a little. Got a good shot of the desert as we're coming in for a landing.

Had to visit my Mom's favorite machine, the Hot Roll video poker.

Had dinner with Paula and Neena at Prime, the Bellagio steakhouse.

Went for the 18 oz dry aged bone-in ribeye. Very nice.

Wisely got all my morning bets in the night before.

Paula had two prime seats reserved at the Bellagio sportsbook for us.

Great view of all the games.

Spent 7 hours in the sportsbook and come out it and it's still 5pm and a whole night ahead of you.

Got the Frozen Bailey's from the Bar near the Linq.

On Monday we met up again and had a great lunch at Joe's Seafood (not to be confused with Joe's Crab Shack).

I did like the machines at MGM which allow you to build parlays, and do live bets. When the Chiefs were losing, the live spread was Chiefs +4.5. I was walking up to the machine when they changed the line to Chiefs +3.5. I decided not to bet it but I should have. Chiefs only lost by 3. 

There were some bets that I didn't make that would have won (Eagles, Broncos under) and that would have lost (France to go to extra time for one) so it all evens out.

It's not easy to make money in Vegas but it is easy to have a good time.

2019 Sportsbook Recap

Back in August I published my NFL Futures bets. Here's how I did.


I started with 10,000. Can I turn a profit?

2000 on Chiefs to win division at -150 WIN. PAYOUT = $3334 (includes original 2000 staked)
1000 on Ravens to win division at +300 WIN. PAYOUT = $4000
800 on Colts to win division at +500 LOSS.
200 on Bills to win division at +950 LOSS.
1000 on Eagles to win division at -110 WIN. PAYOUT = $1909
1500 on Patriots to make the Super Bowl at +325 LOSS.
1500 on Chiefs to make the Super Bowl at +350 WIN. PAYOUT = $6750
1000 on Mahomes over 4650 passing yards at -110 LOSS.
800 on Chiefs over 10.5 wins at -110 WIN. PAYOUT = $1527.20
200 on Chiefs to win Super Bowl at +800 WIN. PAYOUT = $1800

Total: 19,320

Last year, I turned 10,000 into 19,199.

Did even better this year.

2019 NFL Sportsbook

Last year, I used three methods and with an imaginary 30,000 stake turned it into 43,324, including all the vig. That's a strong success. Let's see how I do this year, learning from all my takeaways last year.

I had written this before Luck retired. But since it hadn't posted, I will consider that the bets not made. I will add edits.

- - -

Let's start with AFC Divisional Odds, as of this writing (August 21, 2019)

I feel about the same on the Pats and Chiefs and much better odds on the Chiefs. First bet is easy.

2000 on Chiefs to win division at -150

My division winner in the North is a significant underdog, so I'll take that:

1000 on Ravens to win division at +300

I'm going to hedge in the AFC South:

500 on Colts -110 and 300 on Texans +285. As long as either of them win, I'll come out ahead.

With that extra 200, I'll take a flier on the Bills at +950.

That's 4000 well spent in the AFC division races.


Post-Luck-Retirement Update: 

Texans went from +285 to +130 because of one retirement not on their team. So that 800 I had split between Colts and Texans is void and I'm now going to put it all on... the Colts at +500. I might be crazy but I think that's great value.

Well, I unknowingly picked all the Vegas favorites. While that bodes well for my analysis it doesn't lend to great value on the board here.

The one I trust the most is the Eagles (because I don't trust the rest of their division) so let's do

1000 on Eagles -110

The North is to close to call and there's poor value for betting on Saints/Rams. So I'll stay away from the rest for now.

The NFC is kind of a crapshoot. Let's jump back to the AFC for odds to just get into the Super Bowl.

This probably isn't what Vegas sharps would do, but I trust the Pats and the Chiefs and I don't trust the Browns at all. So...

1500 on Patriots at +325 to make Super Bowl
1500 on Chiefs at +350 to make Super Bowl

I did this last year when their odds were +210 and +230 and it worked out incredibly well. I didn't even have to sweat the AFC title game.

I just did the math. If both teams were +325, this becomes a 3000 bet at -160. So it's not crazy good value...but I'd rather have money on either Pats or Chiefs make the Super Bowl at -160 than Rams or Saints win the division at -180.

So I've spent 8000 so far.

Let's spend the rest on homer picks.

1000 on Mahomes to go over 4650 passing yards at -110
800 on Chiefs over 10.5 wins -110
and what the hell, 200 on Chiefs to win the frigging Super Bowl at +800

NFL Sportsbook 2018 Recap

This year I did three different methods of NFL futures betting.

Method A was the simplest, trying to predict each division winner.

Method B was looking for value.

Method C was ongoing wagers throughout the season.

Time to see which one was best.

Method A

1000 on Texans to win division at +185 WIN. PAYOUT = $2850 (includes original 1000 staked)

1000 on Chiefs to win division at +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $3650

1000 on Steelers to win division at -230 LOSS

1000 on Patriots to win division at -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $1125

1000 on Saints to win division at +155 WIN. PAYOUT = $2550

1000 on Rams to win division at -160 WIN. PAYOUT = $1625

1000 on Cowboys to win division at +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $4750

1000 on Packers to win division at +140 LOSS

1000 on Saints to get to the Super Bowl at +900 LOSS

1000 on Steelers to get to the Super Bowl at +450 LOSS

Payout = 16,550
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = UP 6,550


Method B

$500 on 49ers +300 LOSS

$500 on Cowboys +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $2375

$500 on Chiefs +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $1825

Then load up on heavy favorites:

$3000 on Patriots -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $3375

$4000 on Steelers -230 LOSS

Then some fliers on making the Super Bowl:

$200 on Chiefs +1400 LOSS

$300 on 49ers +1100 LOSS

$500 on Saints +900 LOSS

$500 on Falcons +1000 LOSS

Payout = 7,575
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = DOWN 2,425



Method C

1000 on Chiefs to win division +140 WIN. PAYOUT = $2400
1000 on Rams to win division -290 WIN. PAYOUT = $1344
2000 on Chiefs to win division +130 WIN. PAYOUT = $4600

1000 on Patriots to win division at -300 WIN. PAYOUT = $1333

500 on Rams to win NFC at +250 WIN. PAYOUT = $1750

1000 on Chiefs to win AFC at +210 LOSS
1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230 WIN. PAYOUT = $3300
500 on Ravens to win division at +350 WIN. PAYOUT = $2250
2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900 WIN. PAYOUT = $2222

Payout = 19,199

Original Stake = 10,000

Result = UP  9,199

Takeaways

• Loading up on heavy favorites is never worth it. Method B lost a bunch on the Steelers. Method C came close to losing a -900 bet on the Chiefs when the Chargers came roaring back. And even when it wins, it's so paltry. Never do this again.
• Trying to predict a Super Bowl team before the season starts is a fool's errand. I went 0 for 6. 
• There is value in picking division winners 1 and 2 weeks into the season. Before the season, Chiefs were +265. At 2-0 with wins over Chargers and Steelers, they were +130. Obviously the odds were better before, but +130 is still a nice value. 
• You do have to be careful though, I thought Jaguars were a lock for a playoff team after 2 weeks. Luckily I didn't put anything on them at -160. 
• At the end of November I put 1000 on Chiefs and Pats to make the Super Bowl with both having odds over +200. That move profited 1300 and never was really in doubt. 
• My flier on the Ravens came through and was based on the Steelers tough schedule to close the season. 
• Before the season starts, pick division winners only and look for the teams +150 to +400. I didn't feel confident in the Cowboys per se, but I knew the Super Bowl hangover was real and didn't trust Giants or Washington. +375 was great value for Cowboys. 
• Mark correctly predicted Method A was better than Method B. (Method C came later)

The Vig

Say you're in a Vegas sportsbook and someone named Ralph gives you two options: you could have 2 winning bets out of 3 games or you could have 5 winning bets out of 8 games...which would you take?

Say someone named Mike gives you two options: you could have 2 winning $100 bets out of 3 games or you could have 5 winning $100 bets out of 8 games...which would you take?

These are not the same question. And my head hurts.

- - -

To Ralph, I would rather have the winning bets. If I had $100 to wager on three games, you'd have 2 winning $33.33 tickets. After the vig, that's a profit of $60.66. With $100 to wager on eight games, you'd have 5 winning $12.50 tickets. After the vig, that's a profit of $56.88. Makes sense right? A 66% success rate is better than a 62.5% success rate.

But with Mike, it's not the same question. 2 winning $100 bets out of 3, nets you a profit of $82. 5 winning $100 bets out of 8, nets you a profit of $155. So you had a lower success rate, but you wagered $800 instead of $300.

- - -

Our playoff picks had me thinking. Mark went 5-5 and lost 45 fictional dollars. Because all Vegas bets are marked -110, meaning you have to bet 110 to win 100. In other words they only payout 91%.

Which means that just to break even, you need to have a success rate of 55%. This is the house edge. Or in the words of my father, how Vegas pays the electric bill for all those lights. Again, if you win 54% of your bets, you are losing money.

- - -

I wanted to break down, what's the ideal number of concurrent bets to have to turn a profit. So in each category I'll list the possible success rate outcomes. Rates that turn a profit (above 55%) will be in bold.

1 bet
0% 100%

2 bets
0% 50% 50% 100%

So this is pretty obvious stuff. On one bet you either have a win (complete success) or a loss (complete failure). On two bets, A and B, both could lose, both could win, or A could win and B lose, or B could win and A could lose. But what you're looking at is 3 out of 4 times you're not making money. This seems like the worst thing to do.

3 bets
0% 33% 33% 33% 66% 66% 66% 100%

With three concurrent bets, there are eight possible outcomes. In only one out of 8 do you lose all your money. In three out of eight, you lose a bit. In three out of eight you win a bit. And in one out of eight, you win it all. This is my favorite. Winning 2 out of 3 bets seems feasible.

4 bets
0 25 25 25 25 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 75 75 75 75 100

Now we're up to 16 outcomes. And in only 5 do you make money. Even numbered bets are the worst.

5 bets

0 20 20 20 20 20 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 80 80 80 80 80 100

32 outcomes. 16 turn a profit. So it's pretty clear to me, that either 3 or 5 is the perfect number to bet.

Let's do a quick comparison. Say you have $300 to bet.

If you divide it into 3 bets and win 2, that's a profit of $82.

If you divide it into 5 bets and win 3, that's a profit of $43.8.

For me, it seems about as easy to come out 1 game over .500 whether you bet 3 or 5, and it's almost twice as profitable to go 2-1 than 3-2.

- - -

If you have $300 to bet and put it in 1 bet, and get it right you profit $273.

If you have $300 to be and put it in 3 bets, and go 3-0, you profit $273.

Clearly it's harder to go 3-0 than it is 1-0. So if you're trying to make the best profit, it's best to just put it all on one game. It has the most reward, but also the most risk. 0-1 is the easiest way to lose $300. It's much more likely to go 0-1 than it is 0-3.

- - -

To conclude, don't ever bet on an even number of games. If you're trying for the best risk-reward, bet on 1 game. If you're trying to protect yourself and have the best chances of making money, bet on 3 games.

Sportsbook Sucks

I now remember why I stopped doing this kind of thing.

I like the Falcons to win so I'll put $100 on their money line (+170). LOSS

And I think the Pats win, but eight points is too many. $100 on Ravens +8. WIN (pays 90.91)

Total: LOSS of 9.09 (just the vig)

- - - 

$100 on Wild -145 WIN (pays 68.97)

$100 on under in Wild/Avs (+110) LOSS

$100 on Rangers +105 LOSS

$100 on Kings -125 LOSS

$100 on Flyers even LOSS

Total: LOSS of 331.03

- - - 

Don't ever let me bet on hockey. Unless it's betting against the Avs.

Welcome Back to the Sportsbook

First let's dig through some old wagers...

My 2011 NFL Lock of the Year lost.

(Rivers fumbled so the Chiefs won outright. Even without the fumble, the Chargers would have kicked a FG and not covered the spread.)

I lost all $100 at the 2010 World Cup when Spain won in the 116th minute

(I would have broken even if Holland had won the Final)

I profited $8 on Super Bowl 44

(My all-risk, no-reward strategy comes through.)

And I would have lost $20 on the Eagles if a co-workers flight hadn't been at 4pm.

- - -

With all that out of the way, let's make some new bets. 

I like the Falcons to win so I'll put $100 on their money line (+170). 

And I think the Pats win, but eight points is too many. $100 on Ravens +8.

- - -

This post started because I've been looking forward to hockey all week with nothing to do about it. 

$100 on Wild -145

$100 on under in Wild/Avs (+110)

$100 on Rangers +105

$100 on Kings -125

$100 on Flyers even

world cup futures

So much for that Ivory Coast sleeper.

Brazil will win. At 9/2 they are barely behind Spain at 4 to 1 for being the favorite.

If I was betting $100, here's what I would do:

$60 on Brazil at 9/2
$13 on Italy at 16/1
$10 on Holland at 10/1
$8 on Germany at 14/1
$6 on France at 20/1
$2 on Ghana at 100/1
$1 on South Africa at 150/1

2009 nfl gambling recap

Even though I didn't post it, my XLIV picks were Saints +5, but Colts for the straight up win.

2009-10 Playoffs
Straight Up: 4-7
With Spread: 5-6

- - -

My December futures bet netted me 8 dollars.

Invested: $200
Currently: $290

I won $50 betting on Illinois +21, and then lost $20 on Stevo +17.5. My futures bets for the Saints netted me $8.

So I ended up
Invested: $200
Ended: $328

Profit of $128.

- - -

And back in Februrary you could have had the Saints Super Bowl odds at 20/1.

After they won 13 in a row, they were down to 3/1.

picks recap

I purposefully didn't post my picks for last week's games, so as not to tip my hand for fantasy. Although all of us went all in on Saints/Colts so it didn't matter.

So yeah, I picked the Colts and Saints to cover.

Conference Round
Straight Up: 2-0
With Spread: 1-1

2009-10 Playoffs
Straight Up: 4-6
With Spread: 4-6

Prior to this week I was doing better using the spread, but now they caught up. And with only one game left, I'm guaranteed a losing postseason for both categories.

Also, I tried to imagine what the Super Bowl line would be. I figured on a neutral field, the Colts would be favored but not by more than a field goal. I thought about Colts -2, but figured that people would be rooting for the Saints so I thought the line might open at Colts -1.5.

It opened at Colts -5.

preseason lines

Way back in July I noticed that had posted NFL lines, so I thought I would see how I would bet based on those preseason lines. I will post my in-season picks in parens, and then the Chiefs' result after that.

Chiefs +8 over Ravens (Chiefs +8.5) lost by 14

Chiefs -4 over Raiders (Raiders +3.5) lost by 3

Eagles -10 over Chiefs (Eagles -9.5) lost by 20

Giants -5 over Chiefs (Giants -9.5) lost by 11

Cowboys -4 over Chiefs (Cowboys -8.5) lost by 6

Redskins -6 over Chiefs (Chiefs +6.5) won by 8

Chargers -4 over Chiefs (Chargers -4.5) lost by 30

Chiefs +6 over Jaguars (Chiefs +6.5) lost by 3

Chiefs +1 over Raiders (Chiefs +1.5) won by 6

Steelers -6 over Chiefs (Steelers -9.5) won by 3

Chiefs +9 over Chargers (did not pick) lost by 29

Chiefs -2 over Broncos (Chiefs +4.5) lost by 31

Bills PK over Chiefs (Chiefs -.5) lost by 6

Chiefs -2 over Browns (Chiefs -2.5) lost by 7

Chiefs +3.5 over Cincinnati (did not pick) lost by 7

Broncos -3.5 over Chiefs (did not pick) won by 20

- - -

So the most important number would be how I do in-season, and I only went 7-6. Not great considering I should know this team better than the average bettor. Using the preseason pick, I was 7-9. Which makes sense. Vegas is bound to be better then me at forecasting teams months away.

What surprises me is how little the lines shifted. Even when the Chiefs were 2-7 going into the Steelers game, it only shifted 3.5 points. In other cases it moved less than a point. Basically if you had been betting against the Chiefs all year, you would have made some money.

super bowl futures

After hitting 4/5 in week 10, and picking Illinois over Cincinnati but losing money on BS SB I here's where I stand:

Invested: $200
Currently: $320

Up $120 on the year is pretty good.

I thought I'd try something new, and bet $100 on Super Bowl futures on the eve of the playoffs. Here are the current odds:

As good as I think the Chargers are, I am willing to stake a big claim that Norv Turner won't win a Super Bowl. Same goes for Favre.

And I just wrote a big post about how I think losing today hurts the Colts, but the Pats are the only team I think that can hang with Indy in the AFC.

Since the Colts are at 11/4, putting $40 on them would give me $110, and a profit. That's my goal. To profit on the Pats, I need to put more than $10 on them.

In the NFC, since I believe in the Saints, I need to put at least #34 on them to make a whopping $2. And with the semi-collapse of New Orleans and Minnesota, I think the Packers, Cowboys and Eagles all are interesting bets. But I consider the Eagles and Cowboys about the same, and I'm getting twice the action on Dallas...

So here are my NFL futures for Super Bowl 44:

Colts $38
Saints $36
Pats $12
Packers $8
Cowboys $6

I can see why these bets are so great for the Sportsbooks. To reach my goal of simply making a profit, I've covered not even half the field and my potential profit is negligible. And if either #2 seed wins than I've lost all my money. All risk, no reward is how I've set this up. The other option would be to put all $100 on the Colts, giving me significantly more room for reward, but also lessens the chance that I'll break even at all. Basically these are terrible bets. Good to know.

Post your futures in the comments and see if you can make more than me with $100.