NFL Sportsbook 2018 Recap

This year I did three different methods of NFL futures betting.

Method A was the simplest, trying to predict each division winner.

Method B was looking for value.

Method C was ongoing wagers throughout the season.

Time to see which one was best.

Method A

1000 on Texans to win division at +185 WIN. PAYOUT = $2850 (includes original 1000 staked)

1000 on Chiefs to win division at +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $3650

1000 on Steelers to win division at -230 LOSS

1000 on Patriots to win division at -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $1125

1000 on Saints to win division at +155 WIN. PAYOUT = $2550

1000 on Rams to win division at -160 WIN. PAYOUT = $1625

1000 on Cowboys to win division at +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $4750

1000 on Packers to win division at +140 LOSS

1000 on Saints to get to the Super Bowl at +900 LOSS

1000 on Steelers to get to the Super Bowl at +450 LOSS

Payout = 16,550
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = UP 6,550


Method B

$500 on 49ers +300 LOSS

$500 on Cowboys +375 WIN. PAYOUT = $2375

$500 on Chiefs +265 WIN. PAYOUT = $1825

Then load up on heavy favorites:

$3000 on Patriots -800 WIN. PAYOUT = $3375

$4000 on Steelers -230 LOSS

Then some fliers on making the Super Bowl:

$200 on Chiefs +1400 LOSS

$300 on 49ers +1100 LOSS

$500 on Saints +900 LOSS

$500 on Falcons +1000 LOSS

Payout = 7,575
Original Stake = 10,000
Result = DOWN 2,425



Method C

1000 on Chiefs to win division +140 WIN. PAYOUT = $2400
1000 on Rams to win division -290 WIN. PAYOUT = $1344
2000 on Chiefs to win division +130 WIN. PAYOUT = $4600

1000 on Patriots to win division at -300 WIN. PAYOUT = $1333

500 on Rams to win NFC at +250 WIN. PAYOUT = $1750

1000 on Chiefs to win AFC at +210 LOSS
1000 on Pats to win AFC at +230 WIN. PAYOUT = $3300
500 on Ravens to win division at +350 WIN. PAYOUT = $2250
2000 on Chiefs to win division at -900 WIN. PAYOUT = $2222

Payout = 19,199

Original Stake = 10,000

Result = UP  9,199

Takeaways

• Loading up on heavy favorites is never worth it. Method B lost a bunch on the Steelers. Method C came close to losing a -900 bet on the Chiefs when the Chargers came roaring back. And even when it wins, it's so paltry. Never do this again.
• Trying to predict a Super Bowl team before the season starts is a fool's errand. I went 0 for 6. 
• There is value in picking division winners 1 and 2 weeks into the season. Before the season, Chiefs were +265. At 2-0 with wins over Chargers and Steelers, they were +130. Obviously the odds were better before, but +130 is still a nice value. 
• You do have to be careful though, I thought Jaguars were a lock for a playoff team after 2 weeks. Luckily I didn't put anything on them at -160. 
• At the end of November I put 1000 on Chiefs and Pats to make the Super Bowl with both having odds over +200. That move profited 1300 and never was really in doubt. 
• My flier on the Ravens came through and was based on the Steelers tough schedule to close the season. 
• Before the season starts, pick division winners only and look for the teams +150 to +400. I didn't feel confident in the Cowboys per se, but I knew the Super Bowl hangover was real and didn't trust Giants or Washington. +375 was great value for Cowboys. 
• Mark correctly predicted Method A was better than Method B. (Method C came later)