Memo to new Chiefs Defensive Coordinator: Fail Faster

Hypothesis: The Chiefs defense could help the team more even if they allowed points at the same rate, but failed/succeeded quicker.

For a long time, the Chiefs have operated under a bend but don't break defense. The idea behind this is to not allow big plays. In exchange, you allow short gains and try to hold them to field goals in the red zone.

What this looks like: Chiefs were 31st in yards allowed, 24th in points allowed. Since points are what matters on the scoreboard, that's the ranking that matters more. (Obviously you'd love it if you were a top-5 team in points allowed, middle of the pack in yards allowed, but that's not the point I'm trying to make.)

And as expected, the Chiefs defense ranks 30th in allowing time/drive.

This year the Chiefs offense was 1st in points per drive, averaging 3.25. (Also 1st in yards/drive.)
This year the Chiefs defense was 28th in points allowed per drive, averaging 2.41.

For every offensive and defensive series, the 2018 Chiefs came out .84 points ahead. (That net was #2 behind only the Saints.)

So the more possessions you get, the more chances you give the #1 offense, the more chances you give the #28 defense, the better off you are. (In fact, the Raiders had the worst defense in points/drive and they were only at 2.61. Because the Chiefs offense is more of an outlier than even the worst defense, you want to give them more possessions.)

So my advice to a new Defensive Coordinator, take more risks. Send more people after the QB. Allowing the occasional big play is worth it. You might fail just as often, but at least it will be quicker.