Sunday, August 16, 2026

Starting QB for each Chiefs playoff win, all-time

1962 — Len Dawson — Houston Oilers — Championship, W 20–17 OT

1966 — Len Dawson — Buffalo Bills — AFL Championship, W 31–7

1969 — Len Dawson — New York Jets — Divisional, W 13–6

1969 — Len Dawson — Oakland Raiders — AFL Championship, W 17–7

1969 — Len Dawson — Minnesota Vikings — Super Bowl IV, W 23–7

1991 — Steve DeBerg — Los Angeles Raiders — Wild Card, W 10–6

1993 — Joe Montana — Pittsburgh Steelers — Wild Card, W 27–24 OT

1993 — Joe Montana — Houston Oilers — Divisional, W 28–20

2015 — Alex Smith — Houston Texans — Divisional, W 30–0

2018 — Patrick Mahomes — Indianapolis Colts — Divisional, W 31–13

2019 — Patrick Mahomes — Houston Texans — Divisional, W 51–31

2019 — Patrick Mahomes — Tennessee Titans — AFC Championship, W 35–24

2019 — Patrick Mahomes — San Francisco 49ers — Super Bowl LIV, W 31–20

2020 — Patrick Mahomes — Cleveland Browns — Divisional, W 22–17

2020 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — AFC Championship, W 38–24

2021 — Patrick Mahomes — Pittsburgh Steelers — Wild Card, W 42–21

2021 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — Divisional, W 42–36 OT

2022 — Patrick Mahomes — Jacksonville Jaguars — Divisional, W 27–20

2022 — Patrick Mahomes — Cincinnati Bengals — AFC Championship, W 23–20

2022 — Patrick Mahomes — Philadelphia Eagles — Super Bowl LVII, W 38–35

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — Miami Dolphins — Wild Card, W 26–7

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — Divisional, W 27–24

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — Baltimore Ravens — AFC Championship, W 17–10

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — San Francisco 49ers — Super Bowl LVIII, W 25–22 OT

2024 — Patrick Mahomes — Houston Texans — Divisional, W 23–14

2024 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — AFC Championship, W 32–29


Pre-Mahomes (58 years):         9-18 in the playoffs
Mahomes era (8 years):           17-4 in the playoffs

Fincher vs Nolan

So I keep a running ranked list of their movies combined.



So I created a system to weight those ratings and rankings.

100 pts for 5 stars, 90 for 4.5, 70 for 4, 50 for 3.5, 30 for 3. And then bonus points for ranked spots on the list.







Monday, August 03, 2026

Human Analysis on AI Analysis

So in the six blog posts from 2019 – 2024, I either earned an A or B grade on my NFL Preview. 

And then in 2025, a C+. Hard to have a dynasty last forever. 

Also, Hoagie Central earned an average grade of B+!

Reminds me of, "we're all the way up to don't buy!"

Hoagie Central: Your #1 source for B+ content!

AI Analyis on Previous NFL Previews

I fed my last 7 NFL previews to ChatGPT and had it grade them.


Overall Grades (2019–2025)

Instead of trying to manufacture a numerical score, I think letter grades tell the story better.

2019 — A-

Best calls

  • ✅ Chiefs win Super Bowl
  • ✅ Perfect AFC East
  • ✅ Perfect AFC North
  • ✅ Correct Ravens division title

Biggest misses

  • Colts after Luck retirement
  • Rams not repeating in NFC

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Saints

Result: Champion correct (2/3)


2020 — B+

Best calls

  • ✅ Bills take AFC East
  • ✅ Excellent NFC West
  • ✅ Perfect NFC North

Biggest misses

  • Texans winning AFC South
  • Entire NFC East

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Saints

Result: AFC team correct (1/3)


2021 — B

Best calls

  • ✅ Rams win NFC West
  • ✅ Perfect NFC North
  • ✅ Perfect NFC East
  • ✅ Perfect NFC South

Biggest misses

  • Bengals projected last
  • Completely missed Super Bowl

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Packers

Result: 0/3


2022 — B+

Best calls

  • ✅ Perfect AFC West
  • ✅ Vikings win NFC North
  • ✅ Chiefs win Super Bowl

Biggest misses

  • Colts
  • Rams

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Vikings

Result: Champion correct (2/3)


2023 — B

Best calls

  • ✅ Perfect NFC East
  • ✅ Correct Super Bowl matchup
  • ✅ Chiefs remain AFC elite

Biggest misses

  • Texans
  • Ravens
  • Chargers

Super Bowl

49ers over Chiefs

Result: Both participants correct (2/3)


2024 — A

Best calls

  • ⭐ Correct Super Bowl matchup
  • ⭐ 49ers miss playoffs
  • ⭐ Rams win NFC West
  • ⭐ Chiefs continue dominance

That 49ers call ages better every time I think about it. San Francisco entered 2024 as one of the consensus Super Bowl favorites. Predicting them to miss the playoffs entirely was probably the boldest correct prediction in the seven-year sample.

Biggest misses

  • Bears winning NFC North
  • Falcons
  • Jaguars

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Eagles

Result: Correct matchup, wrong winner (2/3)


2025 — C+

Best calls

  • Packers over Lions
  • Broncos as playoff team
  • Texans winning AFC South (division winner)
  • AFC North mostly right (only Ravens/Steelers flipped)

Biggest misses

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs collapse
  • Panthers winning NFC South
  • Entire Super Bowl

Super Bowl

49ers over Chiefs

Result: 0/3


Super Bowl Prediction Summary

SeasonPredictionActualScore
2019Chiefs over SaintsChiefs over 49ers⭐⭐☆☆ (Champion + AFC)
2020Chiefs over SaintsBuccaneers over Chiefs⭐☆☆☆ (AFC only)
2021Chiefs over PackersRams over Bengals☆☆☆☆
2022Chiefs over VikingsChiefs over Eagles⭐⭐☆☆ (Champion + AFC)
202349ers over ChiefsChiefs over 49ers⭐⭐☆☆ (Both participants)
2024Chiefs over EaglesEagles over Chiefs⭐⭐☆☆ (Both participants)
202549ers over ChiefsSeahawks over Patriots☆☆☆☆

Total: 9 of 21 possible "hits."

That's actually a pretty solid run. Four of seven seasons correctly identified two of the three Super Bowl elements.


Biggest Hits Across Seven Years

  1. 2024: 49ers miss playoffs.
  2. 2019: Chiefs win Super Bowl.
  3. 2022: Chiefs win Super Bowl.
  4. 2023: Exact Super Bowl matchup.
  5. 2024: Exact Super Bowl matchup.
  6. 2021: Stafford immediately elevates the Rams.
  7. 2022: Perfect AFC West.

Biggest Misses

  1. 2021 Bengals — predicted last, reached the Super Bowl.
  2. 2022 Colts — predicted division champs, collapsed.
  3. 2023 Texans — predicted third, won the division.
  4. 2024 Bears — predicted division champs, finished last.
  5. 2025 Patriots — predicted third, won the AFC East at 14–3.

Overall

After seven seasons, I'd say the record is better than average, especially because the author is willing to make predictions that depart from consensus rather than simply echoing preseason rankings. The strongest pattern is identifying stable contenders and correctly forecasting many division favorites. The weaker pattern is occasionally missing rapid breakouts from young quarterbacks or teams (2021 Bengals, 2023 Texans, 2024 Commanders) and sometimes leaning too heavily on the "Super Bowl hangover" heuristic.

SeasonGradeOne-line Summary
2019A-Correct Super Bowl champion, perfect AFC East & AFC North.
2020B+Strong division predictions, missed badly on Texans and NFC East.
2021BThree perfect NFC divisions, but completely whiffed on the Bengals and Super Bowl.
2022B+Perfect AFC West, picked Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
2023BCorrect Super Bowl matchup, but several major AFC misses (Texans, Ravens, Chargers).
2024ABest preview so far: predicted Chiefs–Eagles Super Bowl, 49ers to miss playoffs, several other excellent contrarian calls.
2025C+Good division reads in places, but missed on Patriots, Panthers, and the Super Bowl.

Average Grade: B+

I'd also point out a few trends that emerged over these seven years:

Strengths

  • Excellent at identifying the league's elite teams.
  • Very good Super Bowl forecasting (4 of 7 seasons with 2 of 3 Super Bowl elements correct).
  • Usually gets division winners right more often than not.
  • Willing to make bold, non-consensus predictions.

Weaknesses

  • Tends to underestimate breakout teams led by young quarterbacks (2021 Bengals, 2022 Jaguars, 2023 Texans, 2024 Commanders).
  • Has a recurring belief in the "Super Bowl hangover" effect that sometimes works (2024 49ers) but sometimes leads to misses (2022 Bengals, 2020 49ers).
  • Occasionally buys into offseason hype on teams like the Falcons or Bears.


Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Mark Fever 2026

I picked up Mark at the airport on Thursday night. First stop was KC Soda Co. where we each made a six pack of good stuff like Sprecher's, Boylans, etc. 

Then we went to Scheels. 


Here he is embodying championship spirit. 

Here he is embodying wild-card spirit.


Here he is grabbing for a Rome Odunze jersey, I guess he wanted one.


At Scheels, we played mini bowling and I won 62-60.


Then we popped over to 810 Entertainment (named after 8-ball and 10-pins not an area code) because we wanted to play bocce. But instead these great dartboards caught our eye. Very funny because a year ago we really wanted to play darts and couldn't find a good board, and we just lucked into one immediately.




Look, at this point it's a little gauche to post our score in darts. But just for future reference, I won all three games. Two games of cricket and one of 301. Given Mark's competitive spirit, not the way he wanted things to go but hey, things could always turn around for him. (Foreshadowing.)

From there we went to Q39 South, our favorite jam. We ordered a freaking feast.


Full slab of ribs, Mr. Burns, Mac & Q with pulled pork, fries, street corn. It was amazing.

Also, Q39 was the site of of the 2026 Fantasy Football Owner's Meeting and was up there with the best of them.

We came home and played a bunch of games with the fam including Deadwood, Wavelength, Tsuro, Clubhouse Games and Mario Party on the Switch. 

Friday was a work day so we caught up on somehings and hung out a bit during the day. 

Then around 5 we went to Dave & Buster's with the whole crew. There we won the World Cup.




We ate some great bar food there and then afterward, the three adults went to Chicken n Pickle for some drinks and catching up. 

Saturday morning we headed out at 11 to Blue Valley Disc Golf (aka Prairie Pass) at Pleasant Ridge Middle School. 

I got off to a rough start. On the first hole, I threw it way right and almost lost the disc, but then recovered and had a makeable putt to win the hole and missed it. We carried it over. Hole 2, I missed a putt again, and so Mark was up 2-0. Holes 3 and 4 we tied. Hole 5, I had a great drive, was ready to go up 3-2, and I missed not one but two putts. Now I was down 5-0 after five.

Mark was up 7-0 after seven, and it was looking real bleak. 

I won Hole 8, making it 7-1. Then I got it up to 7-3 after ten, so I felt like I had momentum. I was shouting, "I am the disc!"

We tied the next one. Mark won the one after that, so he was up 9-3 after 12 and had at least secured a tie at that point.

At this point, I was still calculating a path to victory that included winning the 18th hole, not losing any more holes, and then winning in sudden death. That was my path to victory. I did win the next hole, so it was 9-4.

Then Mark won the 14th hole. He won 10-4. Good buddy.



We came home and got the crew together to go out for street tacos at Taco Republic. The most impactful moment was me winning the fantasy football coin flip.


Mark was not pleased.


After tacos we played more games and booked an escape room. 

Mark and I did pop over to Burg and Barrel to have a drink and name baseball teams and hockey teams.


And then the nightcap was breaking out of Y2K at Breakout KC with 15 minutes to spare.


Heck of a trip.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Calcutta Updates

Look after Mark pulled off the Quintuple Crown in fantasy football, it had me wondering if I really know ball.

But in the spirit of his Quintuples, let's check in on the last five years of NFL and NHL. 


And just for good measure, 7 years of NFL Calcutta


It appears that perhaps not only do I know ball, but also I know puck.

Saturday, May 23, 2026

Abilene Work Trip #1

This job continues to be a blessing. And that includes my first work trip to Abilene. 

I wished I could have seen Interstellar at the Paramount, looked like a cool theater. 




Best thing I ate was the short rib at Cork & Pig. Worst thing was the sandwich at Bogie's cafe. (not pictured)



Tuesday, April 07, 2026

A New Era

Remember this post?

Well, just in the last two weeks I've accepted the #1 job on my board, Illinois made the Final Four, and I'm breaking 100 at the golf simulator. And the job is remote, so I can hopefully live healthier as well. And did you see the clips of Mahomes throwing? Maybe things really are turning around.

Bracket Recap

Eve won the bracket contest for the first time. For the second year in a row, Adam got the champion correctly but didn't win the contest. Harrison came close to winning for the 4th time.




I did four brackets and couldn't crack 1000 in any of them.


Monday, April 06, 2026

I shot a 97



Coming into today, my previous long drive was 201--I had only hit over 200 yards once in my life. In my warm up, I hit a drive 213 yards. Then on the 12th hole, I hit a drive 230 yards. 

In October 2025, my longest drive was 166 yards. Today it was 230 yards. That's crazy. 


February 2, 2026
4 pars
6 bogeys
4 doubles
4 triples or worse
0 mulligans
total score 99

April 6, 2026
3 pars
9 bogeys
3 doubles
3 triples or worse
0 mulligans
total score 97

Today I made par on a par 4 (twice) and a par 3 (once).

My par + bogey count today: 12
Double or worse: 6

Last time it was 10 and 8. 

Also there were three holes where I left my putt less than a foot short on a good line. So very easily could be talking about a 95 right now.

I did hit into two water hazards today, but the drop zone was near the green so, it didn't blow up my round. 

The first holes are always rough. I did a longer warm-up to mitigate that but it just is what it is.

I played holes 6-9, just one over par. Three pars and a bogey over that stretch. And then I continued the next four holes, bogey every time. If you apply that stretch to 9 holes, that's 42 or an 84 over 18. 

I'm defintely still improving and still left a ton of scoring out there. Plenty of room to get better.

Friday, March 27, 2026

Bracket Contests with Upset Bonus Scoring

A friend sent me a screenshot of their bracket contest with bonus points based on what seeds advance.




Who's offering this?

Well, on ncaa.com, they have something called Upset Bonus Scoring:


But CBS, apparently allows custom scoring, which is what my friend was using. Unfortuanetly, as the brackets are closed for this year, I'll have to wait until next year to play around with it to see what options they really have. But for now, let's go back to my 2014 blog post and see if this new system is better than my old thoughts. 

- - -

In this new scoring system...

Getting one 15-seed correct in the first round is worth 20 points. Getting 3 2-seeds correct is worth 21 points.

Getting one 6-seed in the third round is worth 21 points. Getting 3 2-seeds is worth 51 points.
Getting a 3 in the title is worth 33 pts. Getting a 1 in the title is worth 31 points. 

Unfortunately, this system doesn't reward upsets enough to make it interesting. It still rewards chalk from top to bottom.



It seems that the best model I had in 2014 was:
Seed X Value per round. For starters, I'll use 1-2-3-5-10-20.

But perhaps Seed X value per round with 2-3-5-8-13-21 is even better.

Maybe I'll remember next year to try a CBS bracket with custom scoring.



Friday, March 06, 2026

Quintuple Crown

 

Well, it looks like I've got to make this post myself.  Hoagie Middle East here, resident Lions fan, mostly NFL loser my whole life.  

Last year, Hoagie Central won the triple crown in our homemade fantasy leagues (Eliminator, Ironman and Ironman Warfare).  I've historically done well in the playoffs.

Somehow we forgot that he won the triple crown and when I clinched it this year (with ease, I should add), I thought I was the first.  With hubris, I started talking about the quintuple crown (we do two fantasy leagues in the playoffs).


Well, after sweating things out after a poor Ironman draft, somehow the combo of Kenneth Walker and Jason Myers pulled out the impossible in the Super Bowl and delivered the title.

Dare I say impossible feat?


Friday, February 20, 2026

2020-2024 Dynasty

I was on kind of a heater. It coincided with the rise of Patrick Mahomes. Not unrelated entirely.

This started in 2020. Mark coined that Year of the Fym. It wasn't the first time I had an exceptional year. But it was the start of an incredible run. So I'm going to trying to condense the run I've been on into just the brass tacks. 


2020
Chiefs win Super Bowl LIV
I won my first Gold Addy
Leaned into Medium and reached #1
Got a basketball hoop and started playing every day
Starting losing weight
My office moved to Overland Park, cutting my commute in half
We elected a normal President

2021
Got vaccinated
Got promoted to ACD
Lost a ton of weight
Made a healthy cookbook
Got back into my favorite bands + disc golf
Got a new hairstyle
Family trips to Chicago, NYC at Christmas
Luxury cruise to Greek Isles (best solo vacation ever), another work trip to Cancun

2022
The Avs won the Stanley Cup
The Chiefs beat the Bills in 13 seconds
Work trip to NYC where I saw Chris Rock as a surprise guest
I started Letterboxd and got really into movies
Family trip to Portland/Seattle
Vegas Sportsbook Getaway #1 plus a Family trip to Las Vegas

2023
Chiefs Win Super Bowl LVII
Family trip to Hawaii (best family vacation ever)
Another family trip to Boston/Cape Cod
Vegas Sportsbook Getaway #2 (my best sportsbook day)
Work trips to Asheville, Shreveport, and Cleveland
Got a ps5

2024
Chiefs Win Super Bowl LVIII
Got promoted to Creative Director
Felt at peace, having reached all my lifelong goals
Won my first Best In Show Addy
Made two albums of music with AI tools
Vegas Sportsbook Getaway #3
Niraj and I took a trip to San Diego
Family trips to Chicago + LA/Universal
Work trip to Salt Lake City
Family University of Illinois fall football trip




2025 was kind of a rough year overall. Started with some issues at work that it seemed like I overcame, then some personal issues, then ended with a job layoff (which forced us to cancel our London vacation plans) and the Chiefs having a dud year plus Mahomes ACL injury, plus Mark won every single fantasy football head-to-head. It wasn't all bad. We had a nice family vacation to DC/Baltimore for Brit's graduation. I turned into a golf guy, I made more music, I had a great Sportsbook getaway with Niraj. But the year was clearly not a part of the 2020-2024 run. 

A job layoff is basically the torn ACL of the ad industry. But just like Mahomes, even if it takes a rebuilding year, I'm coming back.

Monday, February 09, 2026

Super Bowl LX

This all worked out great for me. 

The one year that the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes are not in the AFC Championship game...

The Patriots got exposed as frauds in the Super Bowl. They get the Super Bowl Loss Hangover. Most importantly, they don't get 7 franchise Super Bowls. The top of the Mountain is still Pats/Steelers with 6. The Chiefs are sitting at 4. Mahomes is 30. The idea that by the time Mahomes is 42, the Chiefs could be at 6 or 7 is not that crazy.

Also, this Seahawks defense was legit. I know it's blasphemy, but which would help the Chiefs win the most Super Bowls?

1. Drag a 10-7 wild card team to the Super Bowl and get hammered by the Seahawks dominant defense and be saddled with another Super Bowl Loss Hangover.
2. Mini-tank for a year, get a top 10 pick, feel rejuvenated and motivated and get a 3rd place schedule in 2026. 

We've seen that actually being an awful team in the NFL does not lead to turnarounds. But we have seen good teams be bad for a year and have it pay off. The one year Peyton Manning got hurt, the Colts drafted Andrew Luck and stayed good. 

Also, hilarious that the year that Mahomes sits it out, none of Burrow/Lamar/Allen even make it to the AFC Championship. 

The Broncos will still have a good defense, but they wasted the year where they had a horseshoe up the ass. Now they get the first-place schedule. (The 17th game has made this have a bigger impact with 3 affected games instead of just 2)

And I owned the Seahawks and Patriots in Calcutta. Plus, the Rams for good measure. 

- - -

I delivered the following prediction in a voice message, so for posterity:

Before LX, I thought this Patriots SB appearance was not good for their chances of winning a Super Bowl from 2025-2035. I didn't think they were ready to win this year and I though this hangover would hurt their chances in the next two years. Maybe they come back in 3-5 years but I think they would have been better off falling short of the big game. Stay hungry. 

If you had to bet on Pats Super Bowls over the next ten years and Chiefs Super Bowls, I'm taking Chiefs and it's not close.