Friday, October 23, 2026

Fixing NFL Overtime, Yet Again

In 2010, I wrote this article: Fixing NFL Overtime.

At the time NFL overtime was sudden death in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Two months after this post, (coincidence?) the NFL modified the rules. A touchdown won the game, but a field goal on the first posession gave the other team the ball. This was applied for the 2010-11 Playoffs and then for the 2012 regular season.


In 2022, I wrote this: Fixing NFL Overtime, Again.

At this point, NFL overtime was still using the touchdown wins game, field goal on first possession gives other team the ball system.

Two months after this post, (coincidence??) the NFL modified the rules. (Okay but seriously, maybe Goodell is a loyal HC reader. No way to prove he's not!) The new system is that both teams are guaranteed to touch the ball in overtime. 


Which brings us to 2026. 

I've heard some new suggestions. I've had loyal readers clamoring for my input. 

So I thought it was worth revisiting. However, I think it's worth building a proper foundation first. Let's start with what are the criteria we're chasing, which should include the problems we're trying to solve.


THE CRITERIA

1. Minimize the coin-toss advantage. A game shouldn't be decided by a random flip that gives one team a potentially decisive advantage. Ideally, possession order should be determined by a predictable rule or a strategic decision.

2. Involve both offenses and both defenses. A baseball game shouldn't be allowed to end in the top of the 10th. A team shouldn't lose a game without its offense ever touching the ball in overtime.

3. Make the star players decide the game. End on an exciting play. A routine field goal does not count.

4. Overtime should not be a slog. Overtime should be decisive and exciting without dragging on unnecessarily. And let's get rid of ties.

5. Keep it football. Overtime can modify the rules to create a better ending, but it shouldn't abandon the sport itself. Turning the contest into a home run derby or a penalty shootout is too far.



THE OPTIONS

1. Current System: Guaranteed Possession, Then Sudden Death

A coin flip determines which team gets the ball first. Both teams are guaranteed at least one possession, even if the first team scores a touchdown. If the score remains tied after both teams have had the ball, overtime continues under sudden-death rules. Ties are possible in the regular season if the clock runs out.

2. College Overtime From the 40-Yard Line

Use a college-style format, with each team getting an alternating possession starting at the opponent’s 40-yard line. The home team goes second. Teams continue alternating possessions until one outscores the other in a round.

3. College Overtime From the 20-Yard Line, With No Field Goals

Use a college-style format, with each team getting an alternating possession starting at the opponent’s 20-yard line. The home team goes second. Field goals are prohibited, and every touchdown must be followed by a two-point conversion attempt. Teams continue alternating possessions until one outscores the other in a round.

4. Spot and Choose

The visiting team chooses the yard line where overtime begins. The home team then chooses whether to take possession or play defense. From there, overtime is sudden death: the first team to score wins.

5. Secret Auction

Before overtime, each coach secretly submits a yard line where their team is willing to begin its possession. The team choosing the more disadvantageous starting position earns the ball there. Overtime then proceeds under sudden-death rules.

6. Simultaneous Shootout

Both teams put their offenses and defenses on the field at the same time, starting from opposite ends of the field. There are no clocks or downs; the first team to score a touchdown wins. An interception or fumble immediately awards the game to the opposing team, and a ball crossing the midfield boundary backward also results in a loss.

7. Timed Possessions From Midfield

Eliminate the coin flip. The visiting team starts with the ball at midfield and gets a 90-second possession. The teams then alternate possessions from midfield, each with 90 seconds to score. If the score remains tied after a round, they continue with additional rounds until a winner is determined.

8. College Overtime From the 10-Yard Line, With No Field Goals

Use a college-style format, but start each possession at the opponent’s 10-yard line. The home team goes second. Field goals are prohibited, and every touchdown must be followed by a two-point conversion attempt. Teams continue alternating possessions until one outscores the other in a round.



THE EVALUATION

CRITERION 1: MINIMIZE THE COIN-TOSS ADVANTAGE

We've removed the coin flip in every new option. Right away, options 2 through 8 earn a check mark over the current system.

CRITERION 2: INVOLVE BOTH OFFENSES AND BOTH DEFENSES

Options 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, and 8 all meet this criterion. Options 4 and 5 do not necessarily guarantee that both offenses and both defenses get involved, since either team could score first and end the game.

To their credit, Options 4 and 5 introduce strategic decisions about field position and whether to play offense or defense. That makes them interesting alternatives, even if they don't fully satisfy this criterion.

It's also worth noting that we've eliminated any format in which an opening-possession touchdown can end the game before the opposing offense gets a chance to respond. That's a deal breaker.

CRITERION 3: MAKE THE STAR PLAYERS DECIDE THE GAME

Options 4 and 5 take a significant hit here. Because both use sudden death, the game could end on a routine field goal rather than an exciting play from a star player. A drive into field-goal range could be all it takes.

Options 3 and 8 get bonus points. By eliminating field goals and requiring two-point conversions after touchdowns, these formats remove kicking from the game.They put the emphasis on scoring touchdowns and making plays when the pressure is highest.

CRITERION 4: OVERTIME SHOULD NOT BE A SLOG

All seven alternatives get a check mark here for eliminating ties, which remain possible under the current regular-season system.

But some formats are more likely than others to drag on. Options 4 and 5 could become a slog if neither team scores quickly under sudden-death rules. Option 7 could also drag on if teams repeatedly fail to score during their 90-second possessions from midfield.

Options 6 and 8 look strongest on this criterion. The simultaneous shootout in Option 6 is designed to produce a quick, decisive finish, while Option 8 starts each possession just 10 yards from the end zone, creating immediate scoring opportunities.

CRITERION 5: KEEP IT FOOTBALL

Initially, I was drawn to Options 4 and 5 because they preserve the strategy and structure of football. Sure, they're a little gimmicky, but they still look and feel like football. In fact, Option 6 is the only one that really departs from what we're used to seeing.

And here's my hot take: I think the simultaneous shootout sounds fantastic on paper. Two offenses and two defenses on the field at the same time, with the game hanging in the balance? That's potentially incredible. But I don't think it would make for a good viewing experience.

Imagine trying to watch two plays unfold simultaneously on the same field. You'd need a split screen, and the action would be chaotic. The crowd couldn't easily follow both plays, and neither could the coaches. Then there are the logistical problems. What happens if a play on one side needs a replay review while the other side's play is still unfolding? You'd almost have to eliminate replay reviews altogether, which might be an acceptable trade-off, but it's a significant one.

I'd love to see the simultaneous shootout tested in a minor league or experimental football setting. But for the NFL, where the viewing experience is ultimately what we're trying to improve, I don't think it works. A format can be exciting in theory and still be a bad product on television.


CONCLUSION

The worst of all the options is the current system. The current system still relies on a coin flip, allows regular-season ties, can drag on, and too often ends with a routine field goal rather than a memorable football play. For all those reasons, it earns the bottom spot among the eight options. C tier.

The B tier is reserved for four options that are interesting but flawed: Secret Auction, Simultaneous Shootout, Timed Possessions From Midfield, and Spot and Choose. Some of these risk turning into a sudden-death slog that ends with a routine field goal, which is exactly what we're trying to avoid. The Simultaneous Shootout has a different problem. As discussed earlier, it would be chaotic and difficult to follow, potentially making for a poor viewing experience. Part of what makes football great is the tension that builds between plays, the anticipation of the next snap, and the way the action unfolds. Putting two live plays on the field at once fundamentally changes that rhythm, and not necessarily for the better.

I used to really think that college, that if the college was doing it from the 25, it made sense that the pros would start at the 40 and have to earn their way into field goal range. However, that is my least favorite of the three starting points. I'm trying to remove kickers from the game, so we end on better plays. And the 40 is too much of a slog. So I'm actually going to move the college overtime from the 40, put that in B tier as well.

The A tier is college overtime from the 20-yard line. I think this has a lot going for it. Compared to starting at the 25, I like that starting at the 20 limits the offense to one potential new set of downs before reaching the end zone. That keeps possessions shorter and the pressure higher.

But the S tier option is college style from the 10. No coin flips. No ties. No field goals. No extra points. No slog drives. Offense and defense. Star players decide the action. All gas, no brakes. 

S Tier
College from the 10

A Tier
College from the 20

B Tier
College from the 40
Secret Auction
Spot and Choose
Simulatenous Shootout
Timed Posessions

C Tier
Current System

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Great Stuff

 I can't embed it, so I'll just link to it.

You Don't See THAT Everyday Moments!


Monday, October 05, 2026

A Pivotal Week 4 Chiefs-Raiders Game

It's been a while since the Raiders have been good. It was fun to have a 3-0 Chiefs visiting the 3-0 Raiders. 

This game was back and forth. 

Raiders up 13-10 at the half and get the ball first in the 3rd quarter. Drive down, kick and make a field goal on 4th and 7 from the KC 23. 

But there's a Chiefs penalty. If they take it's 4th and 2 from the 18. Or they could decline it, keep the made field goal, be up 16-10. 

Notably this is a different situation than it's 4th and 2, should you kick or go. In this siutation, the 3 points is a given. No chance of a miss. 

Typically when I hear teams taking points of the board, it's because you got a first down via penalty. But imagine a hypotehtical new 1st and 10 from the KC 31. That's still potentially a gray area decision. On the one hand you keep the drive alive with a chance for a touchdown. On the other hand, you still might end up kicking a field goal later. You also could risk getting a sack and getting pushed out of fg range. I think most teams take the 1st down, but it's not guaranteed to be better than 3pts on the board. 

Now this siutation was nearer the end zone, but a 4th and 2. I don't think it makes sense to trade 3pts for 4th and 2. If it's 4th and 1 and you have the Hurts-Kelce Eagles tush push, fine. But 4th and 2 to dial up a pass play?

I understand the logic that you need to score touchdowns to beat Mahomes. But there's so much time left. Even if KC scores to go up 17-16, you're only down 1 with the ball. 

Anyways, they don't get it. 

About a quarter later, Kenneth Walker runs for 76 yards leading to a Chiefs touchdown. Raiders respond with a fg, stop, and another field goal. 

They're now up 19-17. 

On a huge 3rd and 4, Mahomes launches a pass that travels 40 yards in the air.





Thornton catches and proves he is our new WR1 thriving in this role and it's gone. He's out 3-4 months, getting injured on the very play that swings the game.

On back to back plays from scrimmage Ken Walker runs for touchdowns. Not just back to back plays for the Chiefs. For either team. Raiders fumble on the kickoff. 

At 3:33 it seemed like the Raiders had the upper hand. At 3:01 the Chiefs were up 11 points.



At the end the Raiders benefit from a bad call by the refs and it looks like they might steal the game, but before we can process what happened, the Chiefs D steps up and seals the game with a pick.

Friday, October 02, 2026

Friday, September 11, 2026

holy shit, is it 5787 already?

Look, if you want to dip your apple into her honey, I say go for it, but use protection.

Please Roshhashananananahashnanah responsibly.



Thursday, September 10, 2026

Calcutta Memory Lane

I went back to look at the Calcutta for the years where the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. I was curious if I ever owned them when they won it all. 

2019


2022


2023




Some initial observations.

I never owned the Chiefs when they won. 

I always owned the NFC Super Bowl opponent. (49ers, Eagles, 49ers)

In 2019, even though I didn't own the Champion, I still won the Calcutta, which is crazy.



Then I went back to look at the history over the last seven seasons:

NFL Calcutta

2025: Dave
2024: Dave
2023: Kirat
2022: Mark
2021: Dave
2020: Dave
2019: Dave


The only times I didn't win the Calcutta were when the Chiefs won it all. So 7-year span where I at least saw my team win the Super Bowl or I won the Calcutta.


Saturday, August 22, 2026

2026 NFL Preview

Before we get into 2026, a look back at the last 7 years of NFL previews, graded by ChatGPT.




When you look at my Super Bowl predictions results, it's kind of amazing. For reference, here's how the Las Vegas Sportsbooks did over that stretch:



6 out of 21. I got 9 out of 21, except my strategy was basically spam my favorite team and they actually came through for me. The big question...will I stick with that strategy entering the 2026 NFL Season?


Let's mix it up this year and start with a different division. 

AFC East

The Patriots went 14-3, went to the Super Bowl, and I still never believed in them. And yet, maybe I was right? And now Vrabel is seeing what it's like to be inside an NFL insider.

For years, you could pencil in Josh Allen in first place. They finish in 2nd place and fire their head coach. New coach bump? 

The Dolphins blew everything up and are in complete rebuild. 

The Jets have at least on paper, a chance not to finish 4th in the division which is really exciting for them.

Bills, Pats, Jets, Dolphins.


AFC North

Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh are no longer coaching Steelers and Ravens. 

Meanwhile, the Bengals are relying on consistsency and the fact that it's an even year. They're at least attempting to improve their dogshit defense.

Minter is a complete unknown. I've seen it pay off with Cohen and Ben Johnson, but I'm not convinced replacing John Harbaugh is as easy.

The Browns went 5-12 with Myles Garrett last year. That's probably the ceiling for them this year without him. 

I think that Tomlin was good for a couple wins and the Steelers are going to get a taste of a losing record.

Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns.


AFC South

You've got the Titans with Cam Ward hoping to make a year two leap. 

You've got the Liam Cohen Jags in year two who went 13-4 but couldn't win a playoff game.

You've got Daniel Jones off an Achilles injury. 

And then the Texans. Who kinda, maybe, seem like they could be this year's version of the 2025 Seahawks. 

Texans, Jags, Colts, Titans.


AFC West

I was stalling as long as I could. 

I moved to Denver in 2011. Then I moved from Denver to Kansas City in 2016.


For 14 straight seasons, I lived in the city that won the AFC West. Alas, I did not move to Denver in 2025. The streak is over. 

But hey fun fact, the gray is Super Bowl appearance, the gold is Super Bowl Champion. My whole Chiefs life had been centered on 7 straight playoff losses and a playoff drought from 1993 to 2015. 

But the first time I moved out of Kansas City (to Peoria) was in Summer 1994. Curse of Dave? I come back and we start winning Super Bowls?!

- - -

Anyways, back to the preview. the Broncos broke the Chiefs NINE year streak of winning the division. 

The Chiefs were 6-7 entering Week 15 so things were not going great. When Mahomes injured his ACL, that was a wrap on the season. 

But after week 8, the Chiefs were 5-3 and still had the number 1 Super Bowl odds. Sure they would go 1-4 over the next five, only winning the game where I took my boys to see their first NFL game, but...what's the point again? Ah yes...we used to just slot the Chiefs as division winners and feel good about it. Now we have to think about it.

The Broncos, whether I like it or not, are good. Good defense. Nix is good enough to go 14-3 and likely to get better. 

The Chargers are kind of quietly looming. 11-6 last year. This is exactly the trajectory you want. Good QB, Good Coach, build on continuity and success. Instead of being a perennial hot pick in August and falling short, now the spotlight is seemingly on the Broncos and Chiefs, ironically making them an interesting hot pick for me. 

And the Chiefs. Impossible to be objective about. I still believe in Mahomes and Reid. Bienemy back is good. Kelce is washed. In 2020 they lost the Super Bowl, in 2021 had the hangover season missing the Super Bowl, and then won the Super Bowl in 2022. This time around, in 2024 they lost the Super Bowl, in 2025 had the hangover season missing the Super Bowl. It's not that crazy to think their track record at least puts them back in contention. 

The Raiders are last. 

Three good teams in this division, all three could be in the hunt for the division title in November. 

Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos, Raiders.

AFC Playoff Teams

1 Bills
2 Texans
3 Chargers
4 Bengals
5 Ravens
6 Chiefs
7 Broncos


- - -

NFC East

John Harbaugh comes to the Giants...should we be expecting a Vrabel-like turnaround? I'm not convinced. I'll bump them out of 4th but not into playoff contention. (Editor's Note: This Giants prediction feels like the most Likely thing to be wrong.)

Commanders still have a ton to prove to me. I'm more in the camp that the Commanders playoff run that one time was a flash in the pan. 

Cowboys...in the regular season I still think they're competent. Some curtains would help.

I think the Eagles are the most complete team and they've got the depth. Plus, getting rid of AJ Brown might be addition by subtraction.

Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Commanders.


NFC North

4 winning teams last year. 2nd place, 3rd place, 4th place all had 9 wins. On paper, the places can feel like tiers, but in reality, sometimes they're razors.

The addition of Kyler Murray gives the team with the biggest question mark reason to get excited. So on paper all four should be roughly around 9 or 10 wins.

So we're looking for razor thin edges and it's like who do you trust? Well, Ben Johnson has been on the right side of winning over the last couple years in Detroit and Chicago. So Chicago still feels like they're ascending. The Lions without him feel like they might be descending. 

The thing is it's tough to repeat. Bears got lucky last year, hard to be lucky twice in a row.

The Packers are intersting and seem like they should be good, offense and defense. I've been waiting for Jordan Love to go to the next level, he's 27, seems like this could be the year.

And the Vikings...do I really trust Kyler Murray to play all year and be great?

Packers, Lions, Bears, Vikings.


NFC South

I'm fucking done picking the Falcons man. I don't care if they win the Super Bowl, I'm tired of being wrong about them. 

These teams mostly stink but someone has to win. 

Saints, Bucs, Panthers, Falcons.



NFC West

The Rams were basically just as good as the Seahawks last year. Now they've added Myles Garrett. 

The Seahawks got a parade. Not going back to back.

The 49ers practice facility is inside a nuclear reactor.

The Cardinals should be relegated.

Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals.


NFC Playoff Teams

1 Rams
2 Packers
3 Eagles
4 Saints
5 Seahawks
6 Lions
7 Bears


Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles:
Rams over Bills

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Starting QB for each Chiefs playoff win, all-time

1962 — Len Dawson — Houston Oilers — Championship, W 20–17 OT

1966 — Len Dawson — Buffalo Bills — AFL Championship, W 31–7

1969 — Len Dawson — New York Jets — Divisional, W 13–6

1969 — Len Dawson — Oakland Raiders — AFL Championship, W 17–7

1969 — Len Dawson — Minnesota Vikings — Super Bowl IV, W 23–7

1991 — Steve DeBerg — Los Angeles Raiders — Wild Card, W 10–6

1993 — Joe Montana — Pittsburgh Steelers — Wild Card, W 27–24 OT

1993 — Joe Montana — Houston Oilers — Divisional, W 28–20

2015 — Alex Smith — Houston Texans — Divisional, W 30–0

2018 — Patrick Mahomes — Indianapolis Colts — Divisional, W 31–13

2019 — Patrick Mahomes — Houston Texans — Divisional, W 51–31

2019 — Patrick Mahomes — Tennessee Titans — AFC Championship, W 35–24

2019 — Patrick Mahomes — San Francisco 49ers — Super Bowl LIV, W 31–20

2020 — Patrick Mahomes — Cleveland Browns — Divisional, W 22–17

2020 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — AFC Championship, W 38–24

2021 — Patrick Mahomes — Pittsburgh Steelers — Wild Card, W 42–21

2021 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — Divisional, W 42–36 OT

2022 — Patrick Mahomes — Jacksonville Jaguars — Divisional, W 27–20

2022 — Patrick Mahomes — Cincinnati Bengals — AFC Championship, W 23–20

2022 — Patrick Mahomes — Philadelphia Eagles — Super Bowl LVII, W 38–35

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — Miami Dolphins — Wild Card, W 26–7

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — Divisional, W 27–24

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — Baltimore Ravens — AFC Championship, W 17–10

2023 — Patrick Mahomes — San Francisco 49ers — Super Bowl LVIII, W 25–22 OT

2024 — Patrick Mahomes — Houston Texans — Divisional, W 23–14

2024 — Patrick Mahomes — Buffalo Bills — AFC Championship, W 32–29


Pre-Mahomes (58 years):         9-18 in the playoffs
Mahomes era (8 years):           17-4 in the playoffs

Fincher vs Nolan

So I keep a running ranked list of their movies combined.



So I created a system to weight those ratings and rankings.

100 pts for 5 stars, 90 for 4.5, 70 for 4, 50 for 3.5, 30 for 3. And then bonus points for ranked spots on the list.







Monday, August 03, 2026

Human Analysis on AI Analysis

So in the six blog posts from 2019 – 2024, I either earned an A or B grade on my NFL Preview. 

And then in 2025, a C+. Hard to have a dynasty last forever. 

Also, Hoagie Central earned an average grade of B+!

Reminds me of, "we're all the way up to don't buy!"

Hoagie Central: Your #1 source for B+ content!

AI Analyis on Previous NFL Previews

I fed my last 7 NFL previews to ChatGPT and had it grade them.


Overall Grades (2019–2025)

Instead of trying to manufacture a numerical score, I think letter grades tell the story better.

2019 — A-

Best calls

  • ✅ Chiefs win Super Bowl
  • ✅ Perfect AFC East
  • ✅ Perfect AFC North
  • ✅ Correct Ravens division title

Biggest misses

  • Colts after Luck retirement
  • Rams not repeating in NFC

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Saints

Result: Champion correct (2/3)


2020 — B+

Best calls

  • ✅ Bills take AFC East
  • ✅ Excellent NFC West
  • ✅ Perfect NFC North

Biggest misses

  • Texans winning AFC South
  • Entire NFC East

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Saints

Result: AFC team correct (1/3)


2021 — B

Best calls

  • ✅ Rams win NFC West
  • ✅ Perfect NFC North
  • ✅ Perfect NFC East
  • ✅ Perfect NFC South

Biggest misses

  • Bengals projected last
  • Completely missed Super Bowl

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Packers

Result: 0/3


2022 — B+

Best calls

  • ✅ Perfect AFC West
  • ✅ Vikings win NFC North
  • ✅ Chiefs win Super Bowl

Biggest misses

  • Colts
  • Rams

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Vikings

Result: Champion correct (2/3)


2023 — B

Best calls

  • ✅ Perfect NFC East
  • ✅ Correct Super Bowl matchup
  • ✅ Chiefs remain AFC elite

Biggest misses

  • Texans
  • Ravens
  • Chargers

Super Bowl

49ers over Chiefs

Result: Both participants correct (2/3)


2024 — A

Best calls

  • ⭐ Correct Super Bowl matchup
  • ⭐ 49ers miss playoffs
  • ⭐ Rams win NFC West
  • ⭐ Chiefs continue dominance

That 49ers call ages better every time I think about it. San Francisco entered 2024 as one of the consensus Super Bowl favorites. Predicting them to miss the playoffs entirely was probably the boldest correct prediction in the seven-year sample.

Biggest misses

  • Bears winning NFC North
  • Falcons
  • Jaguars

Super Bowl

Chiefs over Eagles

Result: Correct matchup, wrong winner (2/3)


2025 — C+

Best calls

  • Packers over Lions
  • Broncos as playoff team
  • Texans winning AFC South (division winner)
  • AFC North mostly right (only Ravens/Steelers flipped)

Biggest misses

  • Patriots
  • Chiefs collapse
  • Panthers winning NFC South
  • Entire Super Bowl

Super Bowl

49ers over Chiefs

Result: 0/3


Super Bowl Prediction Summary

SeasonPredictionActualScore
2019Chiefs over SaintsChiefs over 49ers⭐⭐☆☆ (Champion + AFC)
2020Chiefs over SaintsBuccaneers over Chiefs⭐☆☆☆ (AFC only)
2021Chiefs over PackersRams over Bengals☆☆☆☆
2022Chiefs over VikingsChiefs over Eagles⭐⭐☆☆ (Champion + AFC)
202349ers over ChiefsChiefs over 49ers⭐⭐☆☆ (Both participants)
2024Chiefs over EaglesEagles over Chiefs⭐⭐☆☆ (Both participants)
202549ers over ChiefsSeahawks over Patriots☆☆☆☆

Total: 9 of 21 possible "hits."

That's actually a pretty solid run. Four of seven seasons correctly identified two of the three Super Bowl elements.


Biggest Hits Across Seven Years

  1. 2024: 49ers miss playoffs.
  2. 2019: Chiefs win Super Bowl.
  3. 2022: Chiefs win Super Bowl.
  4. 2023: Exact Super Bowl matchup.
  5. 2024: Exact Super Bowl matchup.
  6. 2021: Stafford immediately elevates the Rams.
  7. 2022: Perfect AFC West.

Biggest Misses

  1. 2021 Bengals — predicted last, reached the Super Bowl.
  2. 2022 Colts — predicted division champs, collapsed.
  3. 2023 Texans — predicted third, won the division.
  4. 2024 Bears — predicted division champs, finished last.
  5. 2025 Patriots — predicted third, won the AFC East at 14–3.

Overall

After seven seasons, I'd say the record is better than average, especially because the author is willing to make predictions that depart from consensus rather than simply echoing preseason rankings. The strongest pattern is identifying stable contenders and correctly forecasting many division favorites. The weaker pattern is occasionally missing rapid breakouts from young quarterbacks or teams (2021 Bengals, 2023 Texans, 2024 Commanders) and sometimes leaning too heavily on the "Super Bowl hangover" heuristic.

SeasonGradeOne-line Summary
2019A-Correct Super Bowl champion, perfect AFC East & AFC North.
2020B+Strong division predictions, missed badly on Texans and NFC East.
2021BThree perfect NFC divisions, but completely whiffed on the Bengals and Super Bowl.
2022B+Perfect AFC West, picked Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.
2023BCorrect Super Bowl matchup, but several major AFC misses (Texans, Ravens, Chargers).
2024ABest preview so far: predicted Chiefs–Eagles Super Bowl, 49ers to miss playoffs, several other excellent contrarian calls.
2025C+Good division reads in places, but missed on Patriots, Panthers, and the Super Bowl.

Average Grade: B+

I'd also point out a few trends that emerged over these seven years:

Strengths

  • Excellent at identifying the league's elite teams.
  • Very good Super Bowl forecasting (4 of 7 seasons with 2 of 3 Super Bowl elements correct).
  • Usually gets division winners right more often than not.
  • Willing to make bold, non-consensus predictions.

Weaknesses

  • Tends to underestimate breakout teams led by young quarterbacks (2021 Bengals, 2022 Jaguars, 2023 Texans, 2024 Commanders).
  • Has a recurring belief in the "Super Bowl hangover" effect that sometimes works (2024 49ers) but sometimes leads to misses (2022 Bengals, 2020 49ers).
  • Occasionally buys into offseason hype on teams like the Falcons or Bears.


Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Mark Fever 2026

I picked up Mark at the airport on Thursday night. First stop was KC Soda Co. where we each made a six pack of good stuff like Sprecher's, Boylans, etc. 

Then we went to Scheels. 


Here he is embodying championship spirit. 

Here he is embodying wild-card spirit.


Here he is grabbing for a Rome Odunze jersey, I guess he wanted one.


At Scheels, we played mini bowling and I won 62-60.


Then we popped over to 810 Entertainment (named after 8-ball and 10-pins not an area code) because we wanted to play bocce. But instead these great dartboards caught our eye. Very funny because a year ago we really wanted to play darts and couldn't find a good board, and we just lucked into one immediately.




Look, at this point it's a little gauche to post our score in darts. But just for future reference, I won all three games. Two games of cricket and one of 301. Given Mark's competitive spirit, not the way he wanted things to go but hey, things could always turn around for him. (Foreshadowing.)

From there we went to Q39 South, our favorite jam. We ordered a freaking feast.


Full slab of ribs, Mr. Burns, Mac & Q with pulled pork, fries, street corn. It was amazing.

Also, Q39 was the site of of the 2026 Fantasy Football Owner's Meeting and was up there with the best of them.

We came home and played a bunch of games with the fam including Deadwood, Wavelength, Tsuro, Clubhouse Games and Mario Party on the Switch. 

Friday was a work day so we caught up on somehings and hung out a bit during the day. 

Then around 5 we went to Dave & Buster's with the whole crew. There we won the World Cup.




We ate some great bar food there and then afterward, the three adults went to Chicken n Pickle for some drinks and catching up. 

Saturday morning we headed out at 11 to Blue Valley Disc Golf (aka Prairie Pass) at Pleasant Ridge Middle School. 

I got off to a rough start. On the first hole, I threw it way right and almost lost the disc, but then recovered and had a makeable putt to win the hole and missed it. We carried it over. Hole 2, I missed a putt again, and so Mark was up 2-0. Holes 3 and 4 we tied. Hole 5, I had a great drive, was ready to go up 3-2, and I missed not one but two putts. Now I was down 5-0 after five.

Mark was up 7-0 after seven, and it was looking real bleak. 

I won Hole 8, making it 7-1. Then I got it up to 7-3 after ten, so I felt like I had momentum. I was shouting, "I am the disc!"

We tied the next one. Mark won the one after that, so he was up 9-3 after 12 and had at least secured a tie at that point.

At this point, I was still calculating a path to victory that included winning the 18th hole, not losing any more holes, and then winning in sudden death. That was my path to victory. I did win the next hole, so it was 9-4.

Then Mark won the 14th hole. He won 10-4. Good buddy.



We came home and got the crew together to go out for street tacos at Taco Republic. The most impactful moment was me winning the fantasy football coin flip.


Mark was not pleased.


After tacos we played more games and booked an escape room. 

Mark and I did pop over to Burg and Barrel to have a drink and name baseball teams and hockey teams.


And then the nightcap was breaking out of Y2K at Breakout KC with 15 minutes to spare.


Heck of a trip.

Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Calcutta Updates

Look after Mark pulled off the Quintuple Crown in fantasy football, it had me wondering if I really know ball.

But in the spirit of his Quintuples, let's check in on the last five years of NFL and NHL. 


And just for good measure, 7 years of NFL Calcutta


It appears that perhaps not only do I know ball, but also I know puck.