2019-20 Big Ten Bowl Games

Big Ten Bowl Games can be confusing. Before we get into the conference bowl games, let's take a step back to remind us of the modern bowl/playoff landscape.

The top 6 bowls are called the New Year's Six:
Cotton
Peach
Fiesta
Rose
Sugar
Orange

Every year, two of those six get designated as the Playoff Semifinal.

Which means for Big Ten purposes, there can be four categories of years.

Category #1: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team

This is the classic. The Rose Bowl is the top bowl for the Big Ten. This just happened in 2018-2019 with Ohio State representing the Big Ten.

Category #2: Rose is not playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team

This is the case when the Rose Bowl is the #2 bowl for the Big Ten. This happened in 2016-2017. Ohio State made the playoffs and went to the Fiesta Bowl, so Penn State got the Rose Bowl.

Category #3: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has no playoff team

In this scenario, the Big Ten misses the playoffs and the Rose Bowl. This happened in 2017-2018. 3 Big Ten teams still made the New Year's Six: Ohio State in Cotton, Penn State in Fiesta, Wisconsin in Orange.

Category #4: Rose is playoff game, Big Ten has playoff team

In this case, the Big Ten has a playoff team but the Rose Bowl is off-limits for the rest of the conference. This happened in 2014-2015. Conference ties to bowl games mean nothing in this situation as Ohio State played in the Sugar Bowl playoff game and the Rose Bowl was a playoff game between Oregon and Florida State.

- - -

For a team like Illinois, it's better when the Rose is not a playoff game. And it's better when the Big Ten has a playoff team as everyone moves up a slot. (In fact, that's exactly how Illinois got to the 2008 Rose Bowl as a 9-3 team.)

As luck would have it, Category #2 is what's projected to happen this year as the Rose is not a playoff game and Ohio State is projected to make the playoffs. So I suppose Illinois should want Ohio State to win out, clearing the way for every team to move up a notch.

- - -

This year's Big Ten affiliated bowls:

(playoffs)
Rose - Pasadena
Citrus - Orlando
Outback - Tampa
Holiday - San Diego
Gator - Jacksonville
Pinstripe - New York
Redbox - Santa Clara
Quick Lane - Detroit
Armed Forces - Fort Worth

Real talk, Detroit is a cruel joke. At least Fort Worth is warm. New York is cool, but if I was a player, I'd want anything in Florida or California. I've seen Illinois projected in at least 5 different bowls and they're still two games to play so a lot will depend on their finish. Iowa and Illinois are currently 7th & 8th in overall Big Ten standings.

Here's another way of looking at it. 14 teams in the Big Ten. Illinois is one of 8 teams that has clinched a bowl. 3 cannot become eligible. 3 teams are still in the running. Purdue has to beat Wisconsin, so I feel comfortable crossing them off. Nebraska would have to beat Iowa or Wisconsin. Michigan State sitting on 4 wins just needs to win 2 of 3 vs Michigan, Rutgers and Maryland.

But it's very likely that Illinois will finish 7th or 8th in the conference. If the Big Ten gets a playoff team, then 7th/8th would be roughly New York or Santa Clara. It would stink if Redbox Bowl picked Michigan State over Illinois and bumped the Illini to the Quick Lane. But really, the motto for me is just to avoid Detroit.

8-team playoff?

So here we are. On December 3, 2017, Dan Wetzel publishes a plan for an 8-team college football playoff. He's eliminating conference championship games and putting the first round of the playoffs on campuses, hosted by the higher seed.

At the core of it, the Power Five conferences get an automatic entry. He also makes a caveat for a non-Power Five team that goes unbeaten gets in automatically.

It's all pretty good.

So I went back to look to see how it compared to the 8-team formula that I came up with. And would you believe that I was pushing this back in 2006? Wow.

I initially included the conference champions (back then there were 6 power conferences) and two years later removed them because we were excluding good teams in favor of champions from weak conferences.

Basically, I've been in favor of the 8-team for 11 years and we still don't have it. If I were in charge today, I'd roll with Dan's plan. Good stuff.

College Football Playoffs

After 13 games, it's come down to this:

Thursday, December 31

Capital One Orange Bowl in Miami, 2pm MT
#1 Clemson vs #4 Oklahoma

Goodyear Cotton Bowl in Dallas, 6pm MT
#2 Alabama vs #3 Michigan State

- - -

Clemson is the only undefeated team in the country so they get the #1 ranking. I think that's right. But I do find it humorous when the committee says "Clemson is clearly the #1 team in the country" and then Oklahoma opens as a 2.5 point favorite.

- - -

This is really a perfect year for a 4-team playoff. If we were left with Clemson vs Alabama it would be pretty disappointing. I think Oklahoma and Michigan State earned a shot at the title by winning good conferences with only one loss, same as Alabama. And there's not really another team that's deserving. I think Ohio State at 11-1 is a great team, but they couldn't win their division. I don't feel bad about 11-2 Stanford or 10-2 Notre Dame not having a chance. 4 teams worked out great this year.

- - -

It's kind of funny. Ohio State loses by 3 to a playoff-worthy MSU. MSU loses by 1 to a crap Nebraska. If we were looking at it like a March Madness committee, you'd say that MSU had a worse loss. But because Ohio State's one loss was to MSU, they didn't even get to the conference title game.

Also, really funny that MSU is in the playoffs considering how Michigan fumbled away that game.

- - -

Last year Alabama was a higher seed against the Big Ten conference winner. That didn't work out so well for them.

- - -

A little over a month ago, I thought Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and TCU would be in the playoff. At that time there were three undefeated teams in the Big 12 and Oklahoma wasn't one of them.

BCS Playoffs Update

This is an update to this post. FSU and Utah are no longer unbeaten. Michigan took themselves out of the running last week. Here are your remaining Power 5 undefeated teams.

ACC: Clemson
Big Ten: Ohio State/MSU/Iowa
Big 12: TCU/Baylor/OSU
SEC: LSU
Pac 12: (none)

Now that one conference is out of undefeated teams, it makes things a little simpler.

If you go undefeated, you're in the playoffs. 

So when it comes to projecting the 4 playoff teams, here's my thought process.

I think the SEC Champ is a given. LSU plays at Alabama on November 7, which should determine the winner of the SEC West and likely the SEC.

I suspect the Big Ten will have an undefeated champ, the winner of MSU and Ohio State on 11/21.

I don't trust Oklahoma State. With no conference game, I think the Big 12 Champ will be the winner of Baylor at TCU on 11/21. Will this conference produce an undefeated champ?

The fourth spot is Clemson's to lose. If they can survive the rest of their schedule, they're in. But if they lose, they could get bumped for a 1-loss Pac-12 Champ or even 1-loss Notre Dame or an undefeated mid-major.


So at this point, who do I think will make the playoffs?

It's tempting to pick LSU to win the SEC but because that Alabama game is on the road, I'm going with Alabama.

Ohio State hasn't looked like last year's champ yet, but there's still time. I think they beat MSU and remain undefeated.

TCU's wins have been fluky. I'm guessing Baylor beats them on the road and remains undefeated. (Update 10.26.15: Baylor's QB is out for the year. Yikes. Knowing that, I'm guessing TCU now wins that game and makes the playoffs.)

I trust in Clemson to get the job done.

Basically to get this right, these four teams need to win every game they play between now and the playoffs, including 3 conference championships. The best bet is that there are more surprises between now and then.

Breaking Down the CFB Playoff Race

I'll go conference by conference to gain a better understanding of the playoff contenders.

ACC

Both Clemson and FSU are undefeated and in the running. Clemson looks very strong. 

The Tigers host the Seminoles on November 7. And they're both in the same division so only one of them can reach the ACC Championship. 

Big 12

Oklahoma State, TCU and Baylor are all undefeated. Last week TCU and Baylor were #2 and #3, while OSU was #21. TCU skated by against an inferior opponent once again, Baylor beat up Kansas and OSU beat West Virginia on the road in overtime. 

TCU at OSU, November 7

Baylor at OSU, November 21

Baylor at TCU, November 28

They at least have tiebreakers this year to crown a champion, instead of having co-champions like last year.

Big Ten

Michigan State, Ohio State and Iowa are all undefeated, but I don't consider Iowa a threat to win the Big Ten Championship game. Instead, I'll include Michigan, based on how well they've been playing. If a one-loss Michigan beats MSU and Ohio State and then wins the Big Ten title game, I think they're in the playoffs. 

MSU at Michigan, October 17

MSU at Ohio State, November 21

Ohio State at Michigan, November 28

Pac-12

Utah has the best resume in the country. And they're the only team still undefeated in the Pac-12. 

Utah at USC, October 24

UCLA at Utah, November 21

In the other division, Cal or Stanford will likely make the conference title game. Even with one loss, the conference champion will likely make the playoffs. 

Cal at Stanford, November 21

SEC

Florida, A&M, and LSU are all undefeated. But Alabama's loss hasn't hurt them in the rankings. You've gotta believe the winner of the SEC championship game will be in the playoffs, but it's a bit early to know who that will be yet. 

LSU plays Florida next week, but Florida could easily make the title game with a loss, so the game is more important to LSU. 

Overall

Notre Dame lost so I'm only considering the 5 power conferences right now. Last year, the committee took the four sole champions and left out the Big 12's co-champions. This year, we'll have 5 true champions. Every conference still could have an undefeated champion. Will all 5 do that? Probably not. So the question becomes, how do they compare champions. 

Is a one-loss Alabama SEC champion getting in vs a undefeated Clemson ACC champion?

Is a one-loss Michigan Big Ten champ getting in vs a one-loss Utah Pac-12 champ?

Say Ohio State, Utah, Clemson and Baylor all go undefeated...can they leave out a one-loss SEC champ?