Sunday, December 07, 2008

2009 Edition - Fymbo Formula™: A College Football Playoff That Works

Actual BCS Schedule
Rose: Penn State (Big Ten) vs USC (Pac-10)
Orange: Virginia Tech (ACC) vs Cincinnati (Big East)
Sugar: Utah (automatic) vs Alabama (At-Large)
Fiesta: Ohio State (At-Large) vs Texas (At-Large)
Championship: Florida (SEC) vs Oklahoma (SEC)

Fymbo Formula 1.0
This formula includes all 6 BCS champions and the highest ranking non-BCS team (provided in top 12) and an at-large team based on BCS rankings.

Fiesta: #1 Oklahoma (Big 12) vs Virginia Tech (ACC)
Sugar: #2 Florida (SEC) vs #7 Cincinnati (Big East)
Orange: #3 Texas (At-Large) vs #6 Penn State (Big Ten)
Rose: #4 USC (Pac-10) vs #5 Utah (non-BCS automatic)

Semifinal #1: Fiesta vs Rose
Semifinal #2: Sugar vs Orange

Championship: Semifinal #1 vs Semifinal #1

Under my original proposal (1.0) Alabama is #4 but snubbed because Texas got the at-large berth ahead of them, and Utah was an automatic selection.

Fymbo Formula 1.1a
This iteration is based on rankings, restricting each conference to maximum two teams, and including at least one non-BCS team if they are in the top 12.

Fiesta: #1 Oklahoma (Big 12) vs #8 Boise State (non-BCS)
Sugar: #2 Florida (SEC) vs #7 Penn State (Big Ten)
Orange: #3 Texas (Big 12) vs #6 Utah (non-BCS automatic)
Rose: #4 Alabama (SEC) vs #5 USC (Pac-10)

This proposal includes 8 of the top 9 teams in the country--Texas Tech is left out because they finished 3rd in their conference, just as they were left out of 1.0 and the actual BCS. Compared to 1.0, this kicks out Cincinnati and Va. Tech (ranked 12th and 19th in the country, respectively) for the sake of Alabama (ranked 4th) and Boise State (ranked 9th). Of course, the flip side of this is that two conference champions are not included, mediocre as they may be.

Fymbo Formula 1.1b
This iteration is based on rankings, restricting each conference to maximum two teams, and including at least one non-BCS team if they are in the top 12, and any conference champion that is in the top 16.

Fiesta: #1 Oklahoma (Big 12) vs #8 Cincinnati (Big East)
Sugar: #2 Florida (SEC) vs #7 Penn State (Big Ten)
Orange: #3 Texas (Big 12) vs #6 Utah (non-BCS automatic)
Rose: #4 Alabama (SEC) vs #5 USC (Pac-10)

By including conference champions ranked in the top 16, Boise State is removed and the Bearcats get added. This is a minor adjustment and comes down to the question of who is most deserving: a team ranked 9th from the WAC, or a team ranked 12th from the Big East?

The temptation is to reward winning the Big East, but Boise State won their conference too. And the reason that Boise State is ranked ahead of Cinci is because they went undefeated and Cinci lost twice. Because of this, I think version 1.1a got it right. If your conference sucks so bad that you can win it and there's that many teams better than you, you don't deserve a shot at the national championship.

What January 2009 Should Look Like
(based upon my best formula to date: 1.1a, and my best guess at how it would shake out)

January 1st, Thursday
Fiesta: #1 Oklahoma (Big 12) vs #8 Boise State (non-BCS)
Sugar: #2 Florida (SEC) vs #7 Penn State (Big Ten)
Orange: #3 Texas (Big 12) vs #6 Utah (non-BCS automatic)
Rose: #4 Alabama (SEC) vs #5 USC (Pac-10)

January 10th, Saturday
Semifinal #1: Oklahoma vs Alabama/USC
Semifinal #2: Florida vs Texas

January 19th, Monday
BCS Championship: Oklahoma/Alabama/USC vs Florida/Texas

The beauty of this system is that it would shake out everything. Would we get a rematch of the SEC Championship, proving that conference's superiority? Or would the Big 12 roll and get Red River II? Would USC prove they belong in the picture or would a non-BCS school pull a cindarella run? We'll never know.

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