2015 NFL Predictions

AFC East
Patriots 12-4
Dolphins 10-6
Bills 7-9
Jets 4-12

AFC North
Ravens 11-5
Steelers 11-5
Browns 9-7
Bengals 7-9

AFC South

Colts 12-4

Texans 8-8

Jaguars 5-11

Titans 3-13

AFC West

Chiefs 10-6

Broncos 10-6

Chargers 8-8

Raiders 6-10

AFC Playoff Seeds

1 Patriots

2 Colts

3 Ravens

4 Chiefs

5 Steelers

6 Broncos

NFC East

Eagles 11-5

Giants 9-7

Cowboys 8-8

Washington 2-14

NFC North

Packers 13-3

Vikings 9-7

Lions 6-10

Bears 4-12

NFC South

Saints 9-7

Panthers 8-8

Falcons 7-9

Bucs 5-11

NFC West

Seahawks 13-3

Rams 8-8

Cardinals 7-9

49ers 4-12

NFC Playoff Seeds

1 Seahawks

2 Packers

3 Eagles

4 Saints

5 Giants

6 Vikings

AFC Conference Championship

Patriots over Ravens

NFC Conference Championship

Seahawks over Eagles

Super Bowl

Seriously, a rematch of last year? That's not going to happen. Let's go with Packers over Chiefs, a repeat of Super Bowl I. 

nfl predictions 2013: take three

After 12 weeks, I'm updating the playoff picture:

AFC Division Winners
Broncos
Patriots
Bengals
Colts

Wild Cards
Chiefs
???????

In The Hunt
Chargers
Jets
Dolphins
Ravens
Steelers
Titans

It sure seems like the Broncos and the Patriots are the only serious teams in the AFC. I'm never quite sure what I'm going to get out of the Bengals or Colts. Either one could have a home playoff game vs KC and beat the Chiefs, but at this point, I'm expecting a Manning-Brady rematch in the AFC Championship. Which would at least be a great game. As for who grabs the 6th spot...the Chargers seem like the best team, but I'd put my money on Steelers, maybe the Ravens.

1 Broncos
2 Patriots

6 Steelers at 3 Bengals
5 Chiefs at 4 Colts



NFC Division Winners
Seahawks
Saints
Eagles
Packers

Wild Cards
Panthers
49ers

In The Hunt
Cowboys
Lions
Bears
Cardinals

The NFC North is a 3-team race that could go either way. The NFC East will likely come down to the last game, Cowboys vs Eagles. I think the Cowboys finish 8-8 for the third straight year and miss the playoffs again.

1 Seahawks
2 Saints

6 49ers at 3 Eagles
5 Panthers at 4 Packers

My Panthers Calcutta pick keeps looking better and better.

nfl predictions 2013: take two

After five weeks, I'm updating the playoff picture:

AFC Division Winners
Broncos
Colts
Patriots
Ravens

Wild Cards
Chiefs
Dolphins

In The Hunt
Bengals
Titans
Texans
Browns

Without Hoyer, I don't think the Browns continue their success. Same for the Titans and Locker, although they could pull together a late run. The Texans I think still have a chance, and the Bengals could easily get in.

1 Broncos
2 Colts

6 Dolphins at 3 Patriots
5 Chiefs at 4 Ravens

NFC Division Winners
Seahawks
Saints
Packers
Cowboys

Wild Cards
49ers
Bears?

In The Hunt
Eagles
Lions
Cardinals?

I refuse to accept that the Cardinals are any good. The Eagles are interesting and have potential, but probably more likely to win division than get a wild-card. (I acknowledge the possibility that yesterday's Dallas loss is a turning point that spirals their season into the toilet and the Eagles could win the division at 8-8.) Not sure what to make of Packers-Lions-Bears yet. Seems like Seahawks-Saints-49ers are the class of the conference, and I believe in Rodgers/Green Bay.

1 Seahawks
2 Saints

6 Bears at 3 Packers
5 49ers at 4 Cowboys

I think the 49ers are still for real and will crush whoever is in that 4-5 matchup. I'm optimistic that the Chiefs will be in the same kind of situation in the AFC.

nfl predictions 2013: take one

I know people typically do playoff picks before the season starts, but that's so unreliable.

- - -

I thought it would be fun to judge the teams after we've gotten to see them play.

AFC Division Winners:
Patriots
Ravens
Texans
Broncos

AFC Wild-Cards:
Bengals, Dolphins, Chiefs, Colts fighting for two spots. I think the Colts fall short but the Bengals make it and possibly win the division (but then the Ravens get that wild-card spot). So it's between the Chiefs and Dolphins for that final spot? Let's give it to the Chiefs.

Playoffs:
1 Broncos
2 Texans
6 Chiefs at 3 Patriots
5 Bengals at 4 Ravens

NFC Division Winners:
Eagles
Packers
Saints
Seahawks

NFC Wild-Cards:
Bears, Falcons, 49ers fighting for two spots. At this point, I'd probably leave out the Falcons, but really the Bears will disappoint.

Playoffs:
1 Seahawks
2 Packers
6 Falcons at 3 Saints
5 49ers at 4 Eagles

analyzing playoff predictions: afc

The AFC field is set:

Colts
Chargers
Patriots
Bengals
Jets
Ravens

- - -

After week 1, I had 4/6 right. I thought the Steelers were clearly in, and I projected the Jaguars as likely. The most interesting story is that I only thought 2 teams had no shot of making the playoffs after week 1: the Browns and the Bengals. If you remember week one, the Bengals lost 7-12 to the Broncos on the flukiest play ever. I figured that if you can only score 7 against the Broncos and then lose in a heart wrenching way that your season was over. Clearly that was not the case.

In week 2, I marked the Colts and Ravens as clearly in, and the Jets, Pats and Chargers as likely. That's 5/6. I also had the Steelers as likely. Bengals were still clearly out in my book.

Still 5/6 in week 3, Bengals moved up to likely out. (Similar to Bluth stock being upgraded to don't buy.)

By week 5, the only team clearly in was the Colts. I was down to 4/6 as the Broncos seemed like they had to get in.

At week 7, I thought that the Steelers were clearly in along with the Colts and Pats. Finally saw the Bengals as a playoff team. Had 4/6 missing the Chargers and Ravens.

Week 9: 4/6. The Jets and Ravens had moved down the list to the bottom of likely out. Steelers were still clearly in.

Week 11: First time had all the clearly in correct: Colts, Pats, Chargers. 4/6 with Jags and Steelers over Ravens/Jets.

Week 13: Still 4/6 without Ravens/Jets.

At week 14, 5/6 with the Broncos in, and the Jets at the bottom of the wild-card fight.

With only one week to go, I was only 5/6, backing the Steelers instead of the Jets.

- - -

The situation didn't get progressively clearer as it did in the NFC. Instead, at every point 4 playoff teams were apparent (although not the same 4 all year) and even early on, 5/6 were known.

Doing a little cumulative math:

After 2 weeks, we know 8/12 NFL playoff teams.

After 7 weeks, we know 9/12.

After 11 week, we know 10/12.

This surprises me a little. This tells me that right out of the gate, we know more than we think we do. Conventional wisdom is that two weeks is too early to judge your season, but not really. After 2 weeks, I identified 9 teams as out of the playoff race, and only 1 of those made it. I picked the 12 I thought would make it, and 8 of them did. And I picked 11 that I thought likely wouldn't make it, but had a shot, 3 of those teams did.

So of those groupings, this was my error rate: 1/9 (11%), 4/12 (33%), 3/11 (27%).

Another way of looking at, is that after 2 weeks, I could be 67% confident of a team making the playoffs (8/12), but I could be 80% confident of a team not making the playoffs (16/20). With 80 percent certainty I could have told 20 teams to stop caring about the NFL after just two games.

I won't chart each team's status but basically the Bengals were the one surprise team this year, the Jets and Ravens were the winners of the wild-card fight, and the Broncos and Steelers collapsed pretty hard.

I think the Jets are really a 7-7 team that doesn't belong there. They got to play the Colts and Bengals in their last two games, teams that had already clinched their playoff spots. If I were the Colts or Chargers I would much rather play the Jets than the Titans, Steelers or even the Texans. But now the Jets are in, and have momentum and have just of good of shot of advancing.

- - -

I won't ever do this again for the whole season, because it's fairly tedious and you don't know the point until the season's over. But it does tell me that two weeks is not too early to make snap judgments, and that mid-way through the season, you pretty much know how a team will finish. (The Titans were an exception this year, but they still couldn't make the playoffs, so what's the point?)

analyzing playoff predictions: nfc

Since the NFC is set, I can start my analysis a week before the playoffs start.

The six teams in are:

Saints
Vikings
Cowboys
Cardinals
Eagles
Packers

- - -

After 1 week of the season, I had 3/6 right: Packers, Cowboys, Eagles, but also had pegged Falcons, Giants, and Seahawks. But I hadn't marked anyone as clearly in. I had marked 3 teams as clearly out: Panthers, Rams, and Lions. Basically, those three teams, their season was over before it began.

In week 2, I marked Giants, Saints, and Falcons as clearly in. Only 1 made it. As of week 2, I was still 3/6.

Through weeks 3 and 5, I was still only 3/6 and still had the Giants marked as clearly in. By week 5, I did correctly have both the Saints and Vikings as clearly in.

By week 7, I had 5/6, having the Giants instead of the Cowboys.

After 9 weeks, I was 5/6, this time including the Falcons over the Packers.

At the 11 week mark, I had 6/6. The Saints, Vikings, and Cardinals were marked as clearly in.

No changes at 13 or 15 weeks.

- - -

While only half of my sample size, I found this very interesting.

In the first two weeks, I had a handle on half of the playoff teams, and the Cardinals were the only team that wasn't designated as a playoff team in either one of those weeks.

The way it broke down in the NFC, the key takeaways are:

After 2 weeks we know 3/6 playoff teams.

After 7 weeks, we know 5/6.

After 11 weeks, we know the field.

This supports my general understanding that you know a team's identity by halfway through, but not necessarily in the first two weeks.

I suppose these would make nice charts, but here are the playoff teams confidence level throughout the season, 1 being clearly in, 4 being clearly out. (1 and 2 are in, 3 and 4 are out)

Saints: 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Vikings: 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
Cardinals: 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
Cowboys: 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2
Eagles: 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2,
Packers: 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2

The Packers were the last team to get figured out, but this conference seems fairly simple to figure out. The only team that seemed clearly in and didn't make it was the Giants. And a late season collapse from them isn't that surprising anyways. I snuck a peek at the AFC data and there are more surprises on that side. But I'll have to wait until next week when I know the 6 teams to make any analysis.

playoff predictions: week 17 afc

Just about everything has been decided...except:

Likely In
Ravens
Steelers

Likely Out
Broncos win but don't get enough help
Jets and Texans don't win
Dolphins and Jaguars need too much help

playoff picks: 3 weeks left

AFC

Clearly In
Colts*
Chargers
Bengals

Likely In
Pats
Ravens
Broncos

Likely Out
Jaguars
Dolphins
Steelers
Texans
Jets

Clearly Out
Titans
Bills
Raiders
Chiefs
Browns


NFC

Clearly In
Saints*
Vikings*
Cardinals (only because of their division)

Likely In
Eagles
Packers
Cowboys

Likely Out
Giants
Falcons
49ers

Clearly Out
Bears
Seahawks
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

* = clinched

Welcome to Dumpsville, Chicago. One more team added to clearly out.

playoff picks: week 13

AFC

Clearly In
Colts*
Chargers
Bengals

Likely In
Pats
Jaguars
Broncos

Likely Out
Steelers
Texans
Jets
Ravens
Dolphins

Clearly Out
Titans
Bills
Raiders
Chiefs
Browns


NFC

Clearly In
Saints*
Vikings
Cardinals (only because of their division)

Likely In
Cowboys
Packers
Eagles

Likely Out
Giants
Falcons
Bears
49ers

Clearly Out
Seahawks
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

* = clinched

Bengals go from likely out to clearly in. No changes in the NFC.

playoff picks: week 11

AFC

Clearly In
Colts
Chargers
Pats

Likely In
Steelers
Bengals
Jaguars

Likely Out
Texans
Broncos
Jets
Ravens
Dolphins

Clearly Out
Titans
Bills
Raiders
Chiefs
Browns


NFC

Clearly In
Saints
Vikings
Cardinals (only because of their division)

Likely In
Cowboys
Packers
Eagles

Likely Out
Giants
Falcons
Bears
49ers

Clearly Out
Seahawks
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

A little moving around. The Broncos are who we thought they were! Earlier it looked like there were an abundance of solid teams that deserved the playoffs, but after seeing the Giants, Falcons, and Packers play stinky, I'm not even sure there are 5 playoff worthy teams in the NFC.

How great would it be for the Titans to start 0-6 and then finish 10-0? Definition of team that no one wants to play in the playoffs.

playoff picks: week 9

We're over halfway there. What do we know at this point?

AFC

Clearly In
Colts
Steelers
Pats

Likely In
Chargers
Bengals
Broncos

Likely Out
Texans
Jaguars
Jets
Ravens

Clearly Out
Dolphins
Titans
Bills
Raiders
Chiefs
Browns


NFC

Clearly In
Saints
Vikings
Cardinals (only because of their division)

Likely In
Cowboys
Falcons
Eagles

Likely Out
Giants
Packers
Bears
Seahawks
49ers

Clearly Out
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

Right now I've got 6 teams firmly in and I've got 11 teams with no chance. So that's 15 teams fighting for 6 spots. Just as a reminder, the point of this feature is not to show anything about my talent as a predictor. This is to look at the playoff field at the end of the year, and analyze when each team was where. And to extrapolate when is to early to judge teams during the season, etc.

playoff picks: week 7

AFC

Clearly In
Colts
Steelers
Pats

Likely In
Broncos
Bengals
Jets

Likely Out
Chargers
Ravens
Texans
Jaguars

Clearly Out
Dolphins
Bills
Browns
Raiders
Chiefs
Titans

NFC

Clearly In
Saints

Likely In
Giants
Vikings
Packers
Cardinals
Eagles

Likely Out
Bears
Cowboys
Falcons
Seahawks
49ers

Clearly Out
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

Not that much changed in the AFC. The Pats came to play. And the Dolphins and Redskins have the same number of wins. Doesn't Miami seem good and Washington seem terrible? And as much as it pains me, the Broncos, whether they are real or not, are 6-0.

In the NFC, with Favre and Eli due for 2nd-half disappointments, neither one of their teams are assured playoff spots. Likely? Yes. But not for sure.

playoff picks: week 5

AFC

Clearly In
Colts

Likely In
Broncos
Ravens
Steelers
Pats
Jets

Likely Out
Chargers
Bengals
Jaguars
Texans

Clearly Out
Dolphins
Bills
Browns
Raiders
Chiefs
Titans

NFC

Clearly In
Giants
Saints
Vikings

Likely In
Falcons
49ers
Eagles

Likely Out
Bears
Cowboys
Packers
Seahawks
Cardinals

Clearly Out
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

Took a week off. This probably works just as well as an every other week feature. Looks like not even a third of the way through, and there are 11 teams with no playoff hopes. Sad cities. Don't trust the Bengals yet, and based on numbers I had to slot the Broncos ahead of the Chargers.

In the NFC, I like the Bears but couldn't place them above the Eagles or Falcons. Would have them above the 49ers, but someone from the West has to make it.

playoff predictions: week 3

AFC

Clearly In
Colts
Ravens

Likely In
Jets
Pats
Steelers
Chargers

Likely Out
Broncos
Bengals
Titans
Bills
Jaguars
Texans

Clearly Out
Raiders
Dolphins
Chiefs
Browns

NFC

Clearly In
Giants
Saints

Likely In
Falcons
49ers
Vikings
Eagles

Likely Out
Cowboys
Packers
Seahawks
Bears
Cardinals

Clearly Out
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

Not much changing, just wanted to keep this going, so we can look back at the end of the year and analyze it then.

playoff predictions: week 2

AFC

Clearly In
Colts
Ravens

Likely In
Jets
Pats
Steelers
Chargers

Likely Out
Broncos
Titans
Bills
Jaguars
Raiders
Texans

Clearly Out
Dolphins
Chiefs
Bengals
Browns

NFC

Clearly In
Giants
Saints
Falcons

Likely In
49ers
Vikings
Cowboys

Likely Out
Eagles
Packers
Seahawks
Bears
Cardinals

Clearly Out
Bucs
Panthers
Rams
Lions
Redskins

- - -

The NFC seems to have separated into 11 pretty good teams and 5 terrible teams. To have teams like the Eagles, Packers and Bears sitting outside the top 6 NFC teams is sort of weird, since they all seem like playoff caliber teams. I still like the Packers but after losing to the Bengals, I can't rank them higher than the Vikings or Cowboys.

The Jets are surprising me. I still don't want to put them in the top tier in the AFC, despite knocking off the Pats. The Texans, Titans and Jags seem like they should be better than a 1-5 combined record.

playoff predictions: week 1

The point of this post(s) is not to show off my amazing powers of making predictions. Much like I did last year with this post, I'm curious about how valuable snap judgments are, and how early you can see the playoff picture. (E.g. I wonder at what point I would have been able to see the Cardinals as solid contender last year.)

- - -

AFC

Clearly In
Pats
Steelers
Chargers

Likely In
Colts
Ravens
Jaguars

Likely Out
Jets
Titans
Bills
Broncos
Chiefs
Raiders
Texans
Dolphins

Clearly Out
Bengals
Browns

NFC

Clearly In
(none)

Likely In
Seahawks
Falcons
Packers
Cowboys
Giants
Eagles

Likely Out
Saints
Vikings
49ers
Bears
Redskins
Cardinals
Bucs

Clearly Out
Panthers
Rams
Lions

- - -

The NFC is a lot more muddled as 8 teams looked really good, plus the 49ers had a nice win on the road, so I guess that's 9. As I could only have 6 playoff teams, right now I've got Saints and Vikings on the outside just because of who they played. I don't think 3 teams from the East will make it, but based on their wins, I couldn't justify dropping any of them, even with the injury to McNabb.