Is Week 5 Make or Break?

Editor's Note: One of things that I pride myself on, is that there is analysis here that you can't get anywhere else. Sure, the MMBNJ is similar to TMQ and MJD's Smorgasboard. And my picks are a take on the Sports Guy's and my sportsbook is a rip-off of KSK. But no one else is doing this sort of thing.

I had a theory: that after week 5, your record might indicate whether you will make the playoffs. Let's crunch the numbers for last year. The numbers show how many teams finished with that record in that category.

2007 Playoff Teams:
5-0: 3
4-1: 3
3-2: 5
2-3: 1
1-4: 0
0-5: 0

2007 Non-Playoff Teams:
5-0: 0
4-1: 0
3-2: 5
2-3: 8
1-4: 5
0-5: 2

So what does this tell us? After you've played five games, if you've won at least 4, you're making the playoffs. If you're one of the 16 teams with a losing record, you better have Tomlinson on your team. Surprisingly, having a 3-2 record still means your playoff odds are 50%, at least in 2007.

But since Hoagie Central takes you deeper, let's look at 2006 as well.

2006 Playoff Teams:
5-0: 2
4-1: 6
3-2: 2
2-3: 2
1-4: 0
0-5: 0

2006 Non-Playoff Teams:
5-0: 0
4-1: 2
3-2: 5
2-3: 4
1-4: 6
0-5: 3

So what's the final word? If you're 1-4 or worse: no shot. Really, odds are you need to be 3-2, preferably 4-1. In 06, both the Chiefs and Jets were 2-3 and snuck into the playoffs, but they really didn't belong there.

Click here for January 2009 update on the results.