analyzing playoff predictions: nfc

Since the NFC is set, I can start my analysis a week before the playoffs start.

The six teams in are:

Saints
Vikings
Cowboys
Cardinals
Eagles
Packers

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After 1 week of the season, I had 3/6 right: Packers, Cowboys, Eagles, but also had pegged Falcons, Giants, and Seahawks. But I hadn't marked anyone as clearly in. I had marked 3 teams as clearly out: Panthers, Rams, and Lions. Basically, those three teams, their season was over before it began.

In week 2, I marked Giants, Saints, and Falcons as clearly in. Only 1 made it. As of week 2, I was still 3/6.

Through weeks 3 and 5, I was still only 3/6 and still had the Giants marked as clearly in. By week 5, I did correctly have both the Saints and Vikings as clearly in.

By week 7, I had 5/6, having the Giants instead of the Cowboys.

After 9 weeks, I was 5/6, this time including the Falcons over the Packers.

At the 11 week mark, I had 6/6. The Saints, Vikings, and Cardinals were marked as clearly in.

No changes at 13 or 15 weeks.

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While only half of my sample size, I found this very interesting.

In the first two weeks, I had a handle on half of the playoff teams, and the Cardinals were the only team that wasn't designated as a playoff team in either one of those weeks.

The way it broke down in the NFC, the key takeaways are:

After 2 weeks we know 3/6 playoff teams.

After 7 weeks, we know 5/6.

After 11 weeks, we know the field.

This supports my general understanding that you know a team's identity by halfway through, but not necessarily in the first two weeks.

I suppose these would make nice charts, but here are the playoff teams confidence level throughout the season, 1 being clearly in, 4 being clearly out. (1 and 2 are in, 3 and 4 are out)

Saints: 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Vikings: 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
Cardinals: 3, 3, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1
Cowboys: 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2
Eagles: 2, 3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2,
Packers: 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2

The Packers were the last team to get figured out, but this conference seems fairly simple to figure out. The only team that seemed clearly in and didn't make it was the Giants. And a late season collapse from them isn't that surprising anyways. I snuck a peek at the AFC data and there are more surprises on that side. But I'll have to wait until next week when I know the 6 teams to make any analysis.