Tuesday, December 15, 2009

fantasy 09 tiered analysis, part two

Here are the top QB's. Since you only start one, we don't have to down as far.


Tier 1:
Brees, Rodgers, Manning 337-312 points

Tier 2:
Favre, Brady, Schaub, Romo, Rivers 284.5-267

Tier 3:
Big Ben, Eli, Warner 242-233

Tier 4:
McNabb, Cutler, Cambell, Palmer 217.5-203

This sort of fits with what I guessed, after seeing that our two super bowl teams didn't have elite QB's. In fact they had the bottom of Tier 2. More on this after we look at WRs.


Tier 1:
Andre, Wayne, Fitz, Marshall, Welker, Moss, Austin 217.5-196 points (7 guys)

Tier 2:
Smith 2.0, D. Jackson, V. Jackson, White, Rice, Colston, Ward, Ochocinco, Holmes 178.5-161 (9 guys)

Tier 3:
Driver, Mason, Sims-Walker, Jennings, Harvey, Meachem, Boldin, Smith 1.0, C. Johnson 152-130.5 (9 guys)

Tier 4:
The next 30 or 40 guys who total around 100 points.

The slope between tier 3 and 4 is slippery, but I think that there are roughly 25 receivers that matter. It works out that we start around 25, considering the flex.

- - -

Our league starts 10 QBs. 8 are in the top two tiers.
Our league starts 25 (avg with flex) RBs. 4 are in the top two tiers.
Our league starts 25 (avg with flex) WRs. 16 are in the top two tiers.

Sort of wish I had this information 4 months ago! One thing to note is that even with .5 PPR, QBs still dominate the scoring ranks, then come RBs, then WRs. One implication is that you're better off starting a RB over WR at flex.

I went WR with my first pick thinking that with the PPR that WR were about to become irreplaceable. And my pick turned out to be the best receiver, but you could find 6 other guys that could replicate his value.

If we see that Mark dominated the points totals, how did he do it? Tier 2 at QB. A WR at each of the top three tiers. And two of the four RB in the top two tiers.

No one else can say they have the same thing.

So how did the best team draft?

RB, WR, QB, WR, TE, RB, RB, QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, WR, RB, DST, K

Of course, this is misleading. The best player in fantasy, relative to positions, is Chris Johnson, and Mark didn't draft him.

3 comments:

  1. These are some really interesting stats. Mark's running back situation is truly incredible.

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  2. some ideas for next year:

    passing TDs = 4 points. a bunch of leagues do that
    reception = 1 full point.

    i think these would bring each position closer to equal, but is that what we want?

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  3. I know most leagues do 4 points for passing TDs, but I figure since you're only playing one QB I think it's fine.

    I'm not necessarily opposed to PPR, but I think .5PPR is fine. I don't mind that RB score more than WR, just wish I had better RB...

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