Monday, October 22, 2018

6-1.

There are two types of playoff teams. The ones fighting for top seeds and the ones fighting to make it in at all. Brady's Patriots have been the first kind basically every year. The Chiefs are not used to this.

But here we are.

Last night, the Bengals left Arrowhead looking like frauds. They're now 4-3 and no one's confident in them winning their division. Meanwhile the Chiefs are 6-1. And after a brutal schedule, they now get to face 3 losing teams in a row.

13-3 is very much in play.

The Chargers are sticking around and have potential to steal the division away, but this is still a wide open AFC. I mean, a team like the Dolphins doesn't see it as wide open. But for the Chiefs...this offense and special teams are for real. If we can get our Pro Bowl defenders back for the playoffs...

The AFC Championship seems like it will be Patriots vs Chiefs and I'm just hoping it's in Arrowhead. How crazy is this for year 1 of the Mahomes era?

- - -

Last week, I said I love, love this game for the Chiefs. I wasn't scared of the Bengals in the slightest. Feels good to be validated.

Monday, October 15, 2018

This is what Mahomes losing feels like

At halftime, doubt creeped in. The Chiefs had needed a comeback in Denver. Mahomes threw two picks vs the Jaguars. And now Mahomes had thrown two picks in the first half in New England. Maybe teams had figured him out. Maybe Belichick is just on another level and the Chiefs just can't compete with them.

And then the Chiefs scored 31 points in the second half. Including a 67 yard pass to Hunt and a 75 yard pass to Hill. 

If the Chiefs had gotten blown out 41 to 9, I'd feel a lot differently. Instead, I think this is the game that defines the season. And I'm excited. 

- - -

Here's the playoff standings after 6 games:


Last night showed that the Chiefs are for real. They are not a 5-0 fraud. They're going to be competing for the playoff bye and hopefully home field advantage. And they made it through an insanely tough schedule with the best record in the AFC. Yes, the Patriots now hold the tiebreaker. So the Chiefs have to stay 1 game better if they want to avoid going to Foxborough in January. In other words, to get the #1 seed the Chiefs have to match the Patriots over the next 10 weeks. Just like they matched them to a 40-40 game with 3 minutes left. 

This I think should give the Chiefs a purpose and direction. (While I would have loved the 6-0 vs 3-3 outcome, that would have perhaps given a sense of complacency. That is not the case now.) The Chiefs should be encouraged and motivated. Every game counts. 

Chiefs Remaining Schedule
Games vs teams with winning records: 4
Games vs teams with losing records: 5
Games vs teams with tied record: 1

Patriots Remaining Schedule
Games vs teams with winning records: 4
Games vs teams with losing records: 2
Games vs teams with tied records: 4

- - -

Assuming there is a rematch with the Patriots (in likely the AFC Championship) here's what needs to happen. The Chiefs defense needs to allow less than 39 points. Or the Chiefs offense needs to score more than 44 points. Both are possible. 

Mahomes left points on the board. On their first two field goal drives, he had guys open for touchdowns. Plus the two picks. Those are plays in the second half he makes. First time going against Belichick, first time in New England, first time on Sunday Night Football...and his first half he missed a few throws. By the second half, he was making plays. 

This Chiefs defense was injured. 4 guys on defense didn't suit up: Berry, Houston, Murray, Kpass. In the playoffs, we'll need a healthy Berry and Houston, and that would change a ton. 

Even so, a 3-point loss on the road to the best franchise of the last 20 years isn't a bad loss. There's a lot to be motivated by. 

- - - 

Some other positives. Now the Rams are the last undefeated team. As I wrote earlier this week, I think that hurts a team. You start getting a big head, there's this pressure that mounts each week, you start getting questions about resting your starters or going for 16-0, comparisons to past teams...it's a distraction.

I also feel like it's easier for a team to get motivated in the playoffs when they've been beaten by that opponent in the regular season. (Going against a Belichick team that is seeking revenge is a scary thought.)

Next week, the Patriots have to go on the road to face Khalil Mack and the Bears. I've got a feeling Andy Reid will be calling his buddy Nagy in Chicago with tips on how to beat the Patriots. 

And the Chiefs get a second try on Sunday Night Football vs the Bengals. This time it's at Arrowhead. The Bengals are 0-7 on SNF. The Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread this year and they're favored by 6 points. I love, love the Chiefs this week. Getting a second chance on SNF at home is perfect.

If the Patriots (4-2) finish 13-3, that would require the Chiefs to finish 14-2. There's no margin for error. But Mahomes has proven he's up for the challenge. 

Sunday, October 14, 2018

a magic trick

The Pledge


The Turn


















The Prestige


Thursday, October 11, 2018

Name a More Iconic Duo: NFL Edition

Lions + players retiring in their primes
Browns + a top-3 draft pick
Vikings + missing kicks in the playoffs
Chargers + missing kicks all the time
Colts + landing ass-backwards into franchise QBs
Bills + losing Super Bowls
Bears + defense is their best offense
Chiefs + regular season success followed by choking leads in the playoffs
Falcons + choking a lead in the super bowl

KC Indulgent Foods

I've done posts where I research food picks of different cities or list my favorite restaurants in Denver, so this will be similar for Kansas City. But instead of being comprehensive about the city, it's more focused on "cheat meal" foods—any foods that don't fit into my healthy eating weight loss plans. So some will be just general foods and some will be specific to KC restaurants.


BBQ from Q39 and Slap's

Burger with Merkt's Cheddar and Smoked Shallot Bacon Jam from McCoy's

Super Hero at Planet Sub or anything at Jersey Boyz

Patatas Bravas and Brussels Sprouts at Louie's Wine Dive

SmokeShack at Shake Shack

Bacon Cheeseburger pizza at Godfather's

Indian Buffet at India Palace on 87th St

Tapas at La Bodega

Yellow Brickle Road ice cream from Sylas and Maddy's

Combo Italian Beef and Sausage at Chi Town Original

Anything from Beer Kitchen. Short rib grilled cheese is great. Don't forget the thai chili sauce.

Biscuits & Gravy from anywhere I suppose

I think it would be better for the Chiefs playoffs hopes if they weren't the last undefeated team. That adds pressure and history, and the inevitable mentions of undefeated Dolphins. So I'd like the Rams to take that role this year.

But...as I mentioned before, this game is huge implications for the #1 seed. The difference between 6-0 vs 3-3 with the tie breaker and 5-1 vs 4-2 without the tiebreaker is massive. So it's better for the Chiefs to win this week...and next week too. I guess I can't find a game that I want them to lose.

Sunday, October 07, 2018

Professional Teams that have Won a Game since September 17, 2018

NFL
Bears
Bengals
Bills
Browns
Cardinals
Chiefs
Chargers
Cowboys
Dolphins
Eagles
Giants
Jaguars
Jets
Lions
Packers
Patriots
Panthers
Ravens
Rams
Raiders
Saints
Steelers
Seahawks
Saints
Texans
Titans
Vikings
Washington


MLB
Dodgers
Brewers
Yankees
Red Sox
Astros
Rockies
Indians
Phillies
Angels
Twins
Mariners
Pirates
Mets
Padres
Rays
Cubs
Royals
Cardinals
Reds
Nationals
Diamondbacks
A's
Braves
Marlins
Blue Jays
Orioles
Rangers
White Sox
Tigers
Giants


Notable Teams that have Not Won a game since September 17, 2018
Broncos

5-0

If you were betting that I wouldn't write about the Chiefs starting the Patrick Mahomes era 5-0, you should have just lit that money on fire.

- - -

How good has the Andy Reid era been? In each of the 6 seasons he's been the head coach in KC, the Chiefs have had a 5-game winning streak. This year is the third time they've started 5-0.

But it's not just that they're 5-0.

They beat the Chargers on the road, the predicted AFC West champs.
They beat the Steelers on the road, the one team that's had the Chiefs number.
They beat the 49ers who came in 1-1 with a healthy Jimmy G.
They beat the Broncos on Monday night in Mile High.
They beat the Jaguars and their #1 ranked defense.

That's a murderer's row. You could be a good team and come out of that schedule 1-4.

Also, the Chiefs now own tiebreakers over Steelers and Jaguars, which just might be important come January.

- - -

Now the Chiefs have to play New England on the road. Even if they lose, they'll still be in first place in the AFC. So that's where we're at now. Mahomes has been the starter for 5 games and we're talking about the #1 seed.

- - -

If I was a Jags fan, I would be pissed.

This game was a complete mixed bag.

On the one hand it was 30-7 in the 4th quarter and Chiefs were just trying to end the game. On the other hand...the Jags recovered on an onside kick in a 2-possession game. And then had two possessions that went into the red zone.

In fact, let's look at how many times the Jags blew this game. I'm not going to count punts—I'm talking more blatant failures.

Down 10-0, the Jags had 3rd and 1 at the KC 3. Incomplete pass. They go for it. Incomplete pass. I think it's the right call to go for it. But when you don't get it...those points would have come in handy.

The D even forced a Mahomes interception. They had the ball at the KC 41. But then a strip sack gives the ball back to the Chiefs.

Then it was 13-0 just before the first half. The game certainly not out of reach. And then Bortles throws a pick-6.

Then they drive down the field and are in the red zone at the end of the first half, when Bortles throws it off his lineman's helmet and Chiefs pick it off.

Fast forward to 30-7 in the 4th quarter. Jags get to the KC 22 and Bortles forces it into coverage and it's picked off again.

And after all that, it's a 2 possession game and they have 2 possessions that get to the red zone. On turnover on downs, another last second pick.

Bortles had 5 turnovers. That pick six was deadly.

- - -

Patriots are a 3 point favorite at home. Yet another big game. If New England wins they're only a game behind KC in the standings and would own the tiebreaker. If KC wins, they're 6-0, Patriots are 3-3 and Chiefs own the tiebreaker.

Regular season Reid's Chiefs are 2-0 vs Patriots. 41-14 in Arrowhead in 2014 and 42-27 in Foxborough last year. So the trend would be that Mahomes & Co. puts up 43 this year.

Seriously...Alex Smith put up 41 and 42 on the Pats. The over/under is 58.5 this week. I'm taking the over.

Wednesday, October 03, 2018

AFC Playoff Picture at 1/4 Season Mark

First, the standings. And they are tasty.





I know, I know it's super early. But that no playoffs section is sweet. Okay, let's take a look at the serious teams. 

I think the Dolphins are a fraud and won't make the playoffs. Patriots should be the only AFC East team. 

Titans and Jaguars both look strong. I think the Jaguars are the favorite, Titans wild-card team probably. 

Bengals and Ravens off to a good start too. 

If you take the top records and swap the Dolphins for the Patriots, those are the 6 favorites. At this point I think these are your 4 division winners:

Chiefs
Jaguars
Patriots
Bengals/Ravens

Titans as wild card. Plus non-division-winner of Bengals/Ravens. 

- - -

Why am I doing this now?

Here's the Chiefs next three games:

home for Jaguars
road for Patriots
home for Bengals

(They also get the Ravens at home in December. And as for the NFC, they play the only other undefeated team—the Rams—in Mexico City on MNF, 11/19.)

So this next 3-game stretch will show us a lot. 

Starting 4-0 was optimistic and they did that. I think they can beat the Bengals at home. So even if they lost to Jags and Pats, they could be 5-2 and on track for a playoff bye. We know how critical the bye is, and we know the Jags and Pats are teams that will be vying for those top 2 spots. So a tiebreaker is huge. 

As for the Jags game...Chiefs are 3 point favorites. The Jags are a bad matchup for the Chiefs. Tough D and their offense can run or pass through the bad KC defense. This one could go either way. 

The Patriots is always a tough game. Still the team you fear the most. The Chiefs have had their number in the Andy Reid era, and this year's Pats had a slow start...but they're getting Edelman and Gordon up to speed. Pats should be favored. 

1-1 is the safest bet, but 0-2 or 2-0 is very much in play. 

I know that I'll be rooting against Jags, Pats, Bengals, Ravens, Titans in every game they play, hoping for a top playoff seed. 

Tuesday, October 02, 2018

Mahomes Rises to the Occasion in Mile High

Comebacks. They are the losses that sting the most and the most thrilling wins. When your team is down you mentally prepare for the loss. So when your team pulls it out in the final seconds, it's even better than a normal win—it's like winning twice. The opposite is true when your team gives up a comeback. You've mentally counted on that win. You're celebrating internally. And then it all goes up in smoke. And you're in a pit much worse than a normal loss.

Oh, and when you're talking about a divisional rival it hurts way more. Especially one with an active contentious history. Even more so, if you happen to live in the opposing city. Just saying. 

I've been on the wrong end of comebacks many times, but 2015 week 2 takes the cake. The Chiefs at home in search of their first win over the Manning Broncos. KC takes the lead 24-17 with just over 2 minutes to go. You just need one stop to finally beat them. (And I'm living in Denver at the time.) And then Manning drives down the field. Converts 3rd and 8. Converts 3rd and 10. Scores. Game tied. So you think you're headed to overtime. And then they strip Jamaal Charles and it's 31-24 and the game's over in a blink. You just needed one stop. It sent the Chiefs in a tailspin. Broncos go on to win the Super Bowl. Still stings. 

- - -


Coming in the game, I had lots of conflicting thoughts. The Broncos aren't that good. Never discount a divisional rival. Mahomes and the offense is unstoppable but the Chiefs D is pretty awful. Chiefs are already 2-0 on the road. But they're 2-0 on the road, you can't win every road game. I'm not scared of Keenum...but he did do the Minnesota Miracle so there's a sliver of doubt. 

Chiefs have huge games coming up after this...Jaguars, Patriots, Bengals, Broncos again. This is a stretch that will validate or expose their 3-0 start. Would this be a trap game on the road?

By the end of the Chiefs' second drive, you could tell this wasn't going to be business as usual for KC. First time they didn't score a TD on the opening drive. Broncos were bringing pressure. Mahomes looked off. Denver's D looked a lot better, especially in pass coverage than I had been led to believe. At this point, I predicted Mahomes would through his first interception. I knew we were in for a game that would go down to the wire. 

Mahomes showed he can run in touchdowns as well as throw them in the second quarter, taking the lead 10-3. 

Then it was 13-13. Then it was 20-13 Denver.

At this point, now I've got a lot of new thoughts. Who is the best team in the AFC? Jaguars, Patriots, Bengals, Titans, Ravens, Broncos, Chiefs all in the mix. Totally wide open. Now the Broncos are in first place in the AFC West. Fuck. Rams are the only undefeated team. 

Then it was 23-13. 

Here were the Chiefs possessions after scoring the 2nd quarter TD: 

Punt (12 yard drive)
Field Goal (72 yard drive)
Punt (13 yard drive)
Punt (9 yard drive)

Chiefs get the ball with 12:47 to go in the game, down 23-13. And the Broncos D had been shutting them down. At this point, I did some pretty simple math. To win, Chiefs need to score twice get to 27. They can allow a field goal at most. So that's the winning recipe. Touchdown. Give up at most a field goal. Touchdown. 

Chiefs putting together a drive, convert a 3rd and 6...except there's a penalty and now it's 3rd and 16. Flushed out of the pocket, throwing across his body, complete for 15 yards. 
So now it's 4th and 1. Reid placed an order with Kareem Hunt Trucking Company. After they pick that up, there's a holding penalty. So 1st and 20. But Mahomes gets it back with a big play to Kelce. In fact, hits Kelce a few more times and Reid calls for a Kelce screen to score. 23-20 with 6 minutes to go.

And isn't it funny when a team is trying to bleed the clock, that they are far less dangerous than when they need to score.

Chiefs D comes up with a 3 and out, their second of the night. In the 1st quarter it was Lindsay run on first down, sack on 2nd down, pass short on 3rd down. In the 4th quarter it was Lindsay run on first down, pass short on 2nd down, sack on 3rd down.

Chiefs get the ball back, 4:35 to go. Soon it's 3rd and 5. Chiefs need a big play...

Are you kidding? Instant flashback to Monday Night Football in 2004, in this very stadium. 14 years ago, Jake Plummer threw a left-handed interception to the Chiefs. Last night, Mahomes converts on 3rd down with a left-handed toss as he's been sacked by Von Miller. Nuts.

I just realized this is the Chiefs' best version of the fluke play that defines a comeback. We've been on the receiving end of the fumble-Luck rush TD and the deflected-Mariota pass TD and now the Chiefs have the left hand conversion. I suppose this was more skillful than a lucky bounce, but still. After that, it really felt like the tide had turned.

But after two penalties it was 2nd and 30 back at the KC 31. So Mahomes scrambles and finds Robinson for 23.



Then comes the play that Denver fans are salty about. In the first frame you can see the play clock still at 1. In the second you can see the play clock expire, the ball has not been snapped. In the last frame the ball is snapped. All three were taken at 10:58 in the YouTube player.




So it was less than a second, and this exact situation happens all the time. The back judge is looking at the play clock, when it goes to zero he looks to see if the ball is snapped. I'd be pissed too. I was pissed about the holding call against the Steelers in the playoffs and when Big Ben crossed the line of scrimmage in this year's Steelers game too. The intentional grounding against Mahomes was iffy. Let's say throw the flag there. It's 3rd and 12 in 4-down territory. That didn't cost you the game.

If you're scoring at home, here are all the times that the Chiefs had more than 10 yards to go for a first down and converted anyways:

3rd and 11 - converted
3rd and 16 - converted
1st and 20 - converted
2nd and 30 - converted

It's really something when your offense is facing 2nd and 30...and you still believe your quarterback is going to pull something out of his ass.

Three plays later, Kareem Hunt in for 6. It's 27-23 Chiefs. With 1:39 remaining. Oh no. Because the last thing a Chiefs fan wants right now is to trust the defense. Against Keenum, Mr. Miracle.

First play of the drive is a sack by Armani Watts. I gotta say, Keenum looks great with Armani draped all over him. (rimshot)

But Mr. Miracle converts 4th and 11. And then next play, 36 yard pass for Denver. They're less than 30 yards away from winning. 2nd down Fuller almost picks it off. 3rd down...Demaryius Thomas runs right past the CB (who must have been expecting safety help but it wasn't there) and is wide open. Want to see how open? It's not safe for work.


No Chief within 5 yards. When you know they need to throw deep and have no timeouts so near the sideline is best. I mean, how do you let this happen? And Mr. Miracle throws it over his head.

They'd get one more chance on 4th down but that was the game right there. The Chiefs D did exactly what we feared. And Denver couldn't make the play. Ballgame.


Here's Mahomes highlight reel.

Mahomes has 2 game-winning drives in Denver. He's 5-0 in the NFL, 4-0 on the road.

He snapped Broncos 38-game streak of not allowing 300 passing yards. Snapped Denver's 65-game win streak of holding a double digit lead in the 4th quarter.

Still hasn't committed a turnover.




Hey look, it's Von Miller on the front page of the KC Star:



You're not going to believe this but the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos 6 games in a row. They've beaten the Broncos at Denver in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018. The last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs was that 2015 game I mentioned in the beginning.

The Mahomes era is real. And it's spectacular.