Road to Super Bowl LIV: Holy Shit, We Made It

Right after Super Bowl LIII, the Chiefs were announced as the favorites to win Super Bowl LIV. It both made sense and was hard for me to wrap my head around it.

And as the season started I changed the way I framed how I would write about the season. Instead of just recapping games, I approached it from a Road to the Super Bowl, something I've never done. There was a risk of a jinx, but I figured the goal is the Super Bowl, I can't really avoid it anyways. Plus, who believes in jinxes?

And for the first time in my life, the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl. So how did they get there? Let's work our way backwards.

The Chiefs managed to avoid the Patriots and the Ravens, the two best teams in the regular season. Now I'd love to sit here and say that the way the Chiefs played when they were healthy in the playoffs, they could have beaten any team. But I also know this is the first time they've made it and it's the first time they got an easy path to the playoffs. We'll never know if the Chiefs could have beaten Titans-Patriots-Ravens but I'm glad I don't have to find out. So how did they earn this easy path?

They had to go 12-4 and own the tiebreaker over the Patriots. 11-5 would have made them the 3-seed. So every single one of those 12 wins was crucial on the Road to Super Bowl LIV. You flip one of those wins and they don't get the bye and maybe they're not here.

Which is great for the purpose of this blog post. Let's go back and look at all the close wins that got the Chiefs to this point.

- - -

The first two wins over the Jags and Raiders were never in doubt.

In Week 3, the Chiefs built a 17 point lead over the Ravens that was cut to 5 with two minutes to go. The Chiefs converted a 3rd and 9 with a screen pass to Williams to run the clock out.

In Week 4, the Lions took a 30-27 lead with just over two minutes to play. It was 4th and 8 and the Chiefs were desperate. Good thing they had Patrick Mahomes.



In Week 7, the defense responded without Mahomes and carried the team to a victory.

After the Lions game, the next win that came down to a few plays was the win over the Vikings. I went over it in detail here, but Matt Moore made a miraculous fumble recovery, Butker made two clutch field goals, and the defense held strong. In a game without the league's best QB, the rest of the team stepped up.

In the game vs Chargers in Mexico City, Clark and Mathieu rised up. And the game was clinched with a Sorensen interception.

And the last close game of the year was the one in Gillette Stadium. Just like against the Ravens, the Chiefs built a big lead that the Pats started chipping away at. On the final drive, Breeland knocked away a game-tying pass.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised they weren't more close games. Of all the teams they beat, the Chiefs were closest to losing against the Lions. That 4th and 8 conversion helped the Chiefs get to the Super Bowl.

Road to Super Bowl LIV: One Home Game Away

The winner would host the AFC Championship. The Chiefs came in as 10-point favorites at home. And the first quarter was the worst you could imagine. Offense, defense, special teams, just horrifically awful.

Give up an opening drive TD to a wide open Kenny Stills.
Drop the ball on 3rd down. Get the punt blocked for a TD.
Drop the ball on 3rd down. Get a stop on D and then muff the punt on your own 6. TD.

It's 21-0 in the first quarter. The crowd is silent. I mean the Chiefs can't catch a single pass. They can't catch a punt. They can't even punt. It's a disaster in every phase.

Mark and I are texting. At 21-0, I remind him that last year in the AFC Championship Game, Chiefs were down 14-0 at the half and got it to overtime. At that point, I'm hoping to cut it to a 14 point deficit by halftime. I texted Mark, "Need this quarter to end so we can start going the good way."

In early 2nd quarter, Texans have a 3rd and 9. Sorenson makes the tackle a foot short of the first down. Texans line up to go for it but aren't ready and call timeout. This was the turning point of the game. The Chiefs needed some momentum. I was hoping Texans would go for it and get stopped and they would be the spark the Chiefs needed. Mark (also rooting for the Chiefs) wanted them to kick because he didn't think Chiefs could get the stop. After the timeout, O'Brien decides to kick on 4th and 1 and make it 24-0.

Mecole Hardman catches the ensuing kickoff at the goal line. He's a rookie. He's also in the Pro Bowl as a returner.

He takes it 58 yards and everything changes. The crowd is into it.

Next play: Mahomes to Kelce is the first good offensive play.
Next play: Mahomes to Williams for the score. It took less than a minute once Hardman touched the ball.

Chiefs force a 3 and out. And you can feel that the momentum has shifted.

On 4th and 4 from the Texans 31, they call a fake punt. As soon as it's snapped, my heart sinks. They only needed 4. It looks like the runner has the edge easily. But Dirty Dan Sorensen makes the tackle of his life.

With a short field, Mahomes goes to Kelce twice in a row and finds the sweet nectar of the end zone.

At 24-14 I said now it's a normal game again. We don't have to panic, just play our game, try to get stops.

Ensuing kickoff...Sorensen pops the ball out of the returners' hands. The ball did something that you never see happen. It pops up. And floats directly into the hands of Darwin Thompson. Like out of a movie.

On 3rd and goal, Mahomes rolled out and found Kelce again.

In less than 5 minutes, the Chiefs scored 3 touchdowns and turned a blowout into anybody's game.

Chiefs D forces a punt and KC takes over on their own 10. Most of the time in the NFL, that's a recipe for a punt. But most of the league doesn't have Patrick Mahomes.

90-yard drive before the half ends with Mahomes dragging his toe across the line of scrimmage for a legal pass.

21 points was the largest deficit Mahomes had faced in his career. He erased it one quarter.

Halftime: 28-24 Chiefs. The most first half points in playoff history.

Oh yeah, the Chiefs would open the 2nd half with an 85-yard TD drive.

On 3rd and 5, Frank Clark was down on the ground after missing Watson, but then got up and still sacked him.

Chiefs come back and score another TD. That's 41 in a row.

The Texans finally score. So the Chiefs score again to make it 48-31. That's seven straight touchdowns. Yeah, that's never happened in the playoffs.

So what happens when Mahomes faces a huge deficit? He reels off more TD drives than anyone in playoff history. This is something I've noted before. Like at the end of the Pats game last year, the Titans game this year, when he's in a hole and desperately needs to manufacture something...he delivers. We just don't noticed how incredibly clutch he is because they've often built a huge lead early.

The Chiefs close the game out by stopping them on 4th down and adding a field goal to hang a 50-burger on them.

How rare is a 50-burger in the playoffs? Since the merger, there have been 8.

All winners by the way. So that's a surefire way to win a playoff game. Just score 50.

Where does this rank on playoff comebacks?

1. Bills 41, Oilers 38, OT, in AFC Wild Card (Jan. 3, 1993)
Biggest deficit: 32 points. Houston led 35-3 with 8:53 remaining in the third quarter.

2. Colts 45, Chiefs 44 in AFC Wild Card (Jan. 4, 2014)
Biggest deficit: 28 points. Kansas City led 38-10 with 11:48 remaining in the third quarter.

3. Patriots 34, Falcons 28, OT, in Super Bowl 51 (Feb. 5, 2017)
Biggest deficit: 25 points. Atlanta led 28-3 with 2:07 remaining in the third quarter.

t-4. 49ers 39, Giants 38 in NFC Wild Card Round (Jan. 5, 2003)
Biggest deficit: 24 points. New York led 38-14 with 2:08 remaining in the third quarter.

t-4. Chiefs 51, Texans 31 in AFC Divisional Round (Jan. 12, 2020)
Biggest deficit: 24 points. Houston led 24-0 with 9:56 remaining in the second quarter.


Now we're on the list of top 5 playoff comebacks in a good way. Just one point behind 28-3.

Oh yeah, it was also the best comeback in Chiefs franchise history. Previous record was 21 points set by the 2016 Chiefs vs the Chargers on opening day.

The other cool record is only team to ever win by 20 in the playoffs after trailing by 20. Turned a blowout into a blowout for them.

When it's phrased like this, it really sinks in how improbable that game was. To trail by 24 in the first half and have the lead at halftime you have to be horrendously bad for a solid stretch and then flip it completely to be even better than the other team was just beating you. There's a reason this has never happened. It's just that crazy.

In the first half, I had a flashback to the feeling I had on March 26, 2005. All of that season I had been expecting Illinois to go to the Final Four. And then Illinois was losing by 15 late in the second half and I had to come to terms with the fact that Illinois was not going to the Final Four.

When the Chiefs were down 21-0 and Brittany is asking me what is happening, I had no answers. I thought this team could go to the Super Bowl and they're getting their doors blown off, just like the Ravens had the night before. I felt dumb for making a big deal of taking a picture of my kids in our Chiefs gear. I felt dumb for thinking this team was special.

My mental flashback wasn't related to the comeback. It was about processing disappointment.

And then all of a sudden, I was right back there on Bash Court Apartment 3 for a different reason. Watching the best comeback in my team's history. For both games, Mark and I were rooting for the same team, watching each play together. Just this time he was on the other side of the world.

- - -

On Sunday, January 19th, the 50th AFC Championship Game will be played.

In the 48 seasons without Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs made the game 1 out of 48 times.
In the 2 seasons with Patrick Mahomes: Chiefs are 2 for 2.

(Also, the one without him was on the road. Both with him are home games. Just neat.)

He becomes first player under 25 to throw 5 TDs in the playoffs.

- - -

Fun Frank Clark Facts: He set the Chiefs playoff record for three sacks. And makes it to the Conference Championship round, something he never did with the Seahawks. Seeing them get eliminated last night, he probably felt pretty good about signing with KC.

- - -

The Chiefs are one game away from the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one home game away from the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one home game vs the 6-seed away from the Super Bowl.

Oh my God.

Breathe.

- - -

And now we're on to the AFC Championship Game.

Win and you advance to a Super Bowl. A chance for Reid to secure his legacy. A chance for Mahomes to make the ultimate mark on his resume.

Lose and people start to talk. They'll bring up Reid's string of losses in the NFC Championship Game as Eagles coach. That Reid and Mahomes can't win the big one, ignoring how difficult it is to reach the Championship Game in the first place.

No pressure.

- - -

The Chiefs went from a team that couldn't catch a pass, catch a punt, or even punt the ball to a team that rewrote the history books.
Hardman with the return.
Sorensen with the fake punt tackle and forced fumble.
Travis Kelce couldn't be stopped.
Frank Clark got pressure by himself.
Mathieu making plays in the secondary.
Damien Williams scored three times.
And Patrick Mahomes played perfectly from start to finish. Didn't force a pass when trailing big. Made plays with his feet when they took away the receivers. Played lights out.

Last year when previewing the Colts playoff game, my confidence was founded in the fact that we have Patrick Mahomes and you don't. And that is even truer today.

Road to Super Bowl LIV: Two Games Away

Before the season started, my eyes were focused on homefield advantage. I assumed it was a two-team race between Patriots and Chiefs.

Through 4 games here were the AFC Standings:

Everything started according to plan.

The Chiefs then lost their next two games with their defense becoming exposed. Then Mahomes got injured in the first half at Denver. At that point, it seemed like a lost season, expecting to hear that QB1 was out for the year or most of it.

But the defense lifted the team up and the Chiefs went 2-1 without Mahomes.

He came back for the game vs the Titans. Before the game, Nick Wright predicted that the 6-3 Chiefs would run the table and win the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs had a 98% chance of winning that Titans game late. Then they botched a field goal and choked defensively. Mahomes still led the team down in the final seconds but the last field goal was blocked.

The Chiefs were now 6-4 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Nick Wright had egg on his face. There was talk of the Raiders or Chargers winning the division.

At that point the banged up Chiefs reeled off 6 in a row.
Chargers. Raiders. Patriots. Broncos. Bears. Chargers.

4 divisional games that are supposed to be anybody's game but are actually only Andy Reid's. Beat the Broncos in the snow. Blew out the Bears. And shut down the Patriots in Foxboro.

12-4. Last year that was good enough for the #1 seed. But this year would only be good enough for the #3 seed. What's that...let's go to the moment after the Chiefs scored to secure their Week 17 win...

Kevin Harlan is OUTSTANDING.

Announcing the Chiefs game, he gives play-by-play of the Dolphins taking the lead over the Patriots to secure a bye for KC.

This call is amazing, the crowd reaction is tremendous, the Chiefs player reaction is incredible. I love EVERYTHING about it. pic.twitter.com/imVO3B9IkJ

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) December 29, 2019

That was the best moment of the 2019 Chiefs regular season. To be sitting there watching the Chiefs on TV and have the announcer take over and start calling a second game. Just a perfect moment. And then the crowd finds out and everyone starts jumping up and down. I'M CALLING BOTH GAMES!

So after all that worrying about that Titans choke job, it didn't matter. (Whispers: In fact, it helped us get Suggs on the waiver wire, however much that might help, we'll see.)

So the Chiefs get the bye. That's an extra week to get healthy. An extra week to study the Patriots. A week that the Patriots won't have to get healthy or study the Chiefs. And the Chiefs next game is at home.

A Chiefs appearance in the AFC Championship will either be Chiefs at Baltimore or Titans/Texans/Bills at Kansas City.

So first good news, it's not going to end the same way as last year against the Patriots in the AFC Championship.

- - -

Not too much more to say since we don't even know our next opponent. There will be more to write about in the coming weeks. So for now let's pause and just take this moment to enjoy this song.

Kansas City, this one's for you.@PatrickMahomes: A Special Live Music Video pic.twitter.com/a1k4rVd9HX

— The Ringer (@ringer) September 22, 2019

Oh and by the way, so far everything in this video has come true.
✅Won the division
✅Beat Phil Rivers twice
✅Beat Tom Brady
❓ Headed to Miami

Chiefs Win in Gillette: The Best A Fan Can Get

So Spags really is the Patriot killer after all.

Last year Mahomes put up 40 in Foxboro and lost. Then in the AFC Championship he put up 31 and lost. This year the Chiefs defense held the Patriots to 16 points. Mahomes got to shake Brady's hand for the first time as a winner. And then the Chiefs got to celebrate their division title in the Patriots locker room. That's a fun flight home.

- - -

By the way, that's 4 straight AFC West Titles. Before this streak, the Chiefs had never won the division in back to back years.

Andy Reid inherited a 2-14 team that was in complete disarray. The next year he went 11-5.

7 seasons with Reid. 7 with a winning record.

He won the division twice with Alex Smith and now twice with Mahomes.

The last time the Raiders won the division was 2002. If you're a 21-year-old Raiders fan you have no memories of ever winning the division, but you've seen Big Red win it four in a row.

- - -

This game played out very similar to last week's Patriot loss. They dig themselves a huge first half hole and in the second half come close to coming all the way back. But the early deficit was too big. The Patriot home crowd was booing their own team down 20-7 in the first half.

So clearly the story here is how the Chiefs went in to Foxboro and won, shifting the balance of power in the AFC and setting up some intriguing playoff games. No?

Ah, the Patriots got robbed! The Refs stole two touchdowns.

It's really tempting to just ignore it completely. But I'm game. I'll take the bait.

On the Kelce fumble, the Patriots do get the ball but weren't given the chance to return it. It wasn't going to be a touchdown as the Chiefs had 3 players back, but it cost the Pats about 20-25 yards of field position. Just a bit more than the Patriots benefited from after they shoved Mahomes out of bounds into a Gatorade cooler and no personal foul was called.

Then ensuing drive a Patriot appeared to score but was called out of bounds at the three. Upon slow-motion replay, you could tell the runner stayed in bounds. However, Belichick had already used his challenges. So the result of the play was (checks notes) 1st and Goal from the 3.

There's a case to be made that in the 3rd quarter of a close game, some coaches might not even challenge there because you might want to save the challenge for the 4th quarter, if you're wrong you lose another timeout, and you have 1st and Goal from the 3. (Sure, I'd challenge. But that's why you don't challenge a 1st down spot early in the 3rd quarter that rarely gets overturned.)

The Patriots end up kicking a field goal.

So what are people saying?

Ah yes, the Patriots missed out on two touchdowns. In a game where they lost by 7. What injustice!

But let's think about this. The fumble was on the drive preceding the bad pylon call. So if the Patriots did scoop and score that, they wouldn't have had the chance for the pylon score. If the pylon score was called correctly, the Pats would have ended up with 7. Instead they got 3.

So all told, the calls affected the score by 4 points.

If it was Andy Reid that ran out of challenges, people would be blaming Reid. Classic Reid, can't manage the clock or his challenges!

- - -

The Chiefs were the better team yesterday and won the game. It's pretty likely that the Chiefs will have to go back to Foxboro in January and do it again.

- - -

In fact, it sure looks like Baltimore will be the #1 seed, the Patriots #2, and Chiefs the #3.

For the Chiefs to get the bye, we need to win out and have the Pats to lose to Bengals, Bills or Dolphins. Even if the Pats lose one, I could see the Chiefs blowing a fluky game.

As the #3 seed, the likely path would be:

home game vs Titans or Steelers, road game at Patriots, road game at Ravens

Not easy. That's why blowing that Titans game earlier was so big. If the Pats get the bye, they get two weeks to prepare for the Chiefs and get healthy. The next game won't be as easy as yesterday.

Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 4

The game was hanging in the balance and so was the season. If the Chiefs lose last night and they drop to 2nd place in the division at 6-5, there's a real path to them missing the playoffs. If they win, I could make the case for a deep postseason run. It really felt like the season was on the line. So when Rivers connects with Williams for a 50-yard pass in the final minute, I was having flashbacks to last year. In that game KC was up 28-14 but the Chargers came back and scored with 4 seconds left and went for two on the last one to win 29-28. So when the Chargers are driving down 17-24 last night, I was afraid they were going to score and go for two.

The season, the game, all hanging on one drive.

- - -

The two impact players brought onto the Chiefs defense were Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark. Throughout most of this year, they've played solidly, but not spectacularly. We've been waiting for plays where the impact the game.

Well, last night both of them showed up. Last night really was the Frank Clark game. He was constantly getting to Rivers, forcing one INT and another that should have been caught. He made a huge 3rd down run stop that should have been the game-ender if the Chiefs offense could have gotten one more first down. And Mathieu made a spectacular interception jumping a route and sparking the team's offense when they hadn't been able to get anything going. (Yes, he also was the one that dropped the pop up. Crazy that he can make a difficult pick but dropped the easy one. If this game ends differently, that play would be a bigger deal for sure.)

- - -

Someone not familiar with the sport might assume that how much a fan enjoys a win or is bothered by a loss should be equal to the final score. Win by a lot is the best, right? Lose by a lot is the worst, right? Someone who knows a little more might think that a close loss is worse than a blowout. But the galaxy brain take is this: enjoyment of wins or suffering of losses is proportional to how much you expected it to happen.

When the Chiefs beat the Raiders 28-10 earlier this year, it wasn't a big deal for me because it's what I expected.
The best wins are the ones where you think you're going to lose. Either a comeback win like Chiefs vs Vikings two weeks ago, or when a collapse seems eminent like last night.

When the Matt Moore-led Chiefs lost to the Packers, it didn't sting that badly because I expected the loss. (It only hurt because the Chiefs tied the game late and gave me hope that they would win.
The worst loss is when you've convinced yourself that your team has the game won, like vs the Titans last week.

- - -

Chiefs 8-0 vs Broncos in last 8.
Chiefs 9-1 vs Raiders in last 10.
Chiefs 10-1 vs Chargers in last 11.

Sure those are cherry picked starting with winning streaks.
If you just look at the last 5 years, the Chiefs are 24-3 in the division.

Beating the Chiefs is so rare for the Chargers, that last year when they won, they printed t-shirts:

Jump back to April, when Keenan Allen was asked about the Chiefs...

Chiefs defense: 4 picks last night

- - -

Not everything was perfect last night. On the last 4 drives of the game, when the Chiefs just needed a field goal, or at the very end, just one more first down, the offense punted the ball 4 straight times.

You can blame conservative Andy Reid or altitude or injuries or whatever, but that's not good enough to win in January.

- - -

But here's the good news, one of the biggest problems for the Chiefs this year has been health. And now they have a bye week.

All of the Chiefs most important units have been injured this year: Mahomes, Hill, Watkins, RBs, O-Line, D-Line. Last night they finally had their starting O-line back for the first time all year, but then more injuries starting popping up. Chiefs were down to one running back for the 2nd half. So this bye week is critical. No more games at altitude. 3 games at home. One at New England. One at Chicago. Get to have Thanksgiving off at home and then after Chicago on Dec 22, get to have Christmas at home too. Last game of the year is at home and then (assuming they can win the division) they get a home playoff game.

3 games at Arrowhead in December to get into a groove and close out the season with a 4th-straight division title.

Fun Fact: Matt Cassel and Tim Tebow have won the AFC West more recently than Philip Rivers.

- - -


The ESPN Playoff Machine is active so I went ahead and picked the outcome of the next 6 weeks of games:

Still a lot up for grabs obviously so I'm not taking this too seriously. I just wanted to get a frame of reference of what's realistic or probable. I don't think the Patriots will finish 15-1, but it was hard to predict them to lose any single game. There's still a good path for Ravens to get the one seed since they own the tiebreaker over New England. In fact, the Ravens should be rooting for the Chiefs to beat the Pats so they'd get the 1 seed and only have to face one of KC/NE.

The path for the Chiefs to get a bye involves winning out:

That's a lot to ask. And even then, they'd have to play the Ravens in the divisional round and the Pats in the conference title game. (Which is basically the same route as without the bye. Yes, it's one more home game but the Chiefs have actually been better on the road, so [shrug emoji].

My dream scenario is one that's not going to happen:

I would love for Baltimore to knock out New England and avoid playing the Patriots. But the Ravens aren't going to fall to the 4th seed.

Incidentally, when doing this, I realized how many great games are coming up.

Yes there's Chiefs/Patriots. But also Ravens/Rams and Ravens/49ers.

And the 49ers have a gauntlet coming up:

Some huge games that will determine home field and then some. That last game vs Seattle could be the difference between a bye and the 5th seed.

A lot of good football to be played.

As for the Chiefs, they just need to focus on the division. Win that, get a home playoff game and get healthy for some tough January games.

Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 3

The Chiefs started this year 4-0. Early on, I was only focused on whether the Chiefs could have a better record than the Pats and grab the #1 seed and homefield. I was tracking Mahomes on pace numbers, and he was the favorite for league MVP.

Then the Chiefs lost two games (Colts and Texans) in part because Mahomes was reaggravating his ankle injury, in part because there were a ton of injuries all over specifically the O-line and D-line, and the run D got exposed as a huge liability. And then, the number one thing you don't want to happen, Mahomes gets seriously injured and has to miss significant time.

He got injured with 10 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter in a game the Chiefs were leading 10-6 in Denver. (Lost in the injury, Mahomes did pick up the 4th and 1 on the QB sneak.) At the point of the injury, the Chiefs were 4-2, clinging to a small lead on the road. He was immediately ruled out. The first timetable speculated that he could return after the bye. Counting the Denver game that still had 40 minutes to play out, that's 5 games hanging in the balance.

Lose them all and your 4-0 start is now 4-7.

Here's a famous quote. When asked why he wasn't giving some snaps to Peyton's backups, Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore said, "Fellas, if '18' goes down, we're fucked. And we don't practice fucked."

Great quote. And one that the Chiefs apparently abided by, as Matt Moore had exactly 0 reps with the starters. The first time Matt Moore had thrown a pass to Kelce was during the Denver game.

In a league where we've been taught that Quarterbacks are everything, it's not hard to imagine Moore throwing picks and losing 5 games for a team that just lost two in a row with the league MVP.

But that's not what happened.

On the very first drive following the Mahomes injury, the Chiefs D stepped it up. Hitchens knocked the ball out of Flacco's hands and Ragland scooped it up for a TD.

And then in the second half, Moore lofted a perfect 30-yard pass over the defense to Hill who had daylight in front of him. The final in Denver was 30-6. The D pitched a shutout and Moore made nice plays. (Fun fact, Hill had missed some of the early games and while he was rehabbing with the backups he was receiving passes from...Matt Moore.)

The next week was a great back and forth game vs the Packers. The Chiefs were in it to the end, but Rodgers and Jones made a bunch of spectacular plays and the Packers edged the Chiefs. The KC D looked improved despite the loss and Moore played well enough to win.

Then the Vikings came to town. The KC defense was again better than it had been against the Colts/Texans. Moore played well again.

But here's the thing I want to say about the game. If you lose this game, those strong performances are all for naught. If you lose to the Packers and Vikings, both home games, it doesn't matter that you were close. You can get blown out like the Panthers did by the 49ers or lose close like Chiefs did to the Packers and it counts the same in the standings. And it would be a real shame to have improved defense and good QB play, but drop two home games in a row. I'd much rather be like the Panthers and get blown out but win the following week.

So yesterday's game was huge.

- - -

I came in not knowing what to expect. After a big strike from Moore to Hill, I was pleased. And at the half, it was 10-10. Pretty comfortable.

Hardman fumbling the 2nd half kickoff was deflating, followed by a quick Vikings TD. But they missed the extra point. That was promising. The Chiefs would follow with two scores, making it 20-16 KC. That included a Williams 91-yard TD run. Longest in the league this year. Tied Charles for longest in franchise history.

At this point, up 20-16, entering the 4th, I expected to win. I wanted, needed this win.

The Vikings get a TD making it 23-20.

Pivotal Event #1

With 9 minutes to go, Williams converts a 3rd and 1 to the MIN 39. Except there's a flag. Holding on Kelce. Replay shows he was grabbing the Viking by the chest, inside the framework as they say. So instead of being on the fringe of field goal range, KC has 3rd and 11 on their own 40. Then the Vikings fan in the crowd start a Skol chant. So the Chiefs fans try to drown them out with the Chop. Seriously? It's 3rd and 11 and the Chiefs have the ball. It's so loud, Cam Erving commits a false start. Viking fans outsmarted and outmaneuvered Chiefs fans at Arrowhead. And then on 3rd and 16, the pass rush sacks Moore. Went from 1st and 10 on the MIN 39 to 4th and 27 on KC 24 in the blink of eye.

Pivotal Event #2

Seven minutes to go, Chiefs are down 3 and need a stop. On 2nd and 10, they get Cook for a 3 yard loss. And on 3rd and 13, the Vikings try to run again. 3 and out. Big stop.

Pivotal Event #3

Ensuing drive, Matt Moore goes to Hill on back-to-back plays. First to convert a 3rd and 7, and then a 41-yard bomb. Sometimes throwing it up for Hill is the best play. It's 1st and 10 inside the 20 and I'm thinking the 3 is guaranteed, let's get 7.

Pivotal Event #4

Two plays later it's 3rd and 13 and the Vikings send the house. It's so important, we're getting screenshots. Note the game clock. Play starts with 3:27.

At 3:26, Moore has a defender in his face.

At 3:25, Moore is hit and the ball is out.

Still at 3:25, Moore has hit the dirt. The ball is out, on the ground. The Viking that hit Moore is jumping over him while 97 is right there ready to get the ball.

At 3:24, Moore's momentum has carried him into this position. He looks dead. 97 is a step closer.

Still at 3:24, 97 is grabbing for the ball.

If the Vikings get the ball right there, odds are they run the clock out. Last week the Packers ran the ball out with 5 minutes left. But the Vikings don't get the ball. Moore is able to somehow recover the fumble. It's hard to say if he got the perfect bounce off the ground or he made a perfect grab with his right arm, or both, but he maintained possession. All of that to set up:

Pivotal Event #5 

Harrison Butker now has a 54-yard field goal attempt. Let's flash back to his previous attempt. That one was a 45-yarder in heavy wind. Note the flags at the top of the uprights.

Here's where that kick started...

and here's where it ended up. That kick was good, moving a ton from his right to left.

So now it's the 4th quarter and it's time for the 54-yarder in crunch time. Announcer says he's 0 for 2 on the year from 50+. But I think he's going to make it.

Here it is on it's way: dead center.

And clearing it by a few yards.

And just like my point earlier...if you blow this game now, it was all for naught. 2:30 for the Vikings and they only need a field goal.

Pivotal Event #6 

This time it's 3 pass attempts for Cousins and the Chiefs D holds to -7 yards. 3 and out. Punting on 4th and 17. The Vikings are scared of Hill and the punt goes out of bounds at the MIN 45.


Pivotal Event #7

On back to back Chiefs offensive plays, Moore is sacked immediately and fumbled. Poor blocking again. This time Williams recovers. But Chiefs are back on their own 44, 2nd and 21.

Big time throws to Kelce and then Hill gets them back in field goal range so Butker can do this:

Pivotal Event #8 

He just made one from 54, so 44 shouldn't be a problem right? Well, unless the Vikings get a hand on it. Which they do.

The ball comes out wonky. It's not high and strong, it's low and wobbly. But it goes through all the same. Just incredible.

You go back and look at the 8 pivotal events I marked in the 4th quarter alone. The first killed a Chiefs drive. The next seven were all examples of Chiefs being good or lucky, or both at the same time. That's what it takes to complete a late comeback. And it was great to watch.

Defense came up big.
Offense came up big.
Special teams, coaching, all of it.

Some days, sports makes you question why you would bother investing time and money into an experience that is just as likely to ruin your day or bring you joy. And some days the question answers itself.

- - -

Points per Possessions, wins in bold

Week 1: Chiefs 4.44, Jaguars 2.88
Week 2: Chiefs 2.8, Raiders 1
Week 3: Chiefs 3.66, Ravens 3.11
Week 4: Chiefs 2.83, Lions 2.5
Week 5: Chiefs 1.44, Colts 2.11
Week 6: Chiefs 2.67, Texans 3.44
Week 7: Chiefs 2.5, Broncos .5
Week 8: Chiefs 2.67, Packers 3.44
Week 9: Chiefs 2.17, Vikings 1.92

I was hoping to draw conclusions about when the offense gets a certain number this happens, but it's not quite that clear. What is clear, is that you can assign credit/blame based on these numbers.

Week 1: Offense win
Week 2: Defense win
Week 3: Offense win
Week 4: Offense win
Week 5: Offense loss
Week 6: Defense loss
Week 7: Defense win
Week 8: Defense loss
Week 9: Defense win

In the 6 games Mahomes played, the credit/blame went to Offense 4 times and Offense was 3-1. Defense was 1-1.
In the 3 games Moore played, the credit/blame went to Defense all 3 times and Defense was 2-1.

Overall, Offense is 3-1 and Defense is 3-2.

All things considered, a pretty good sign for the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs...

Here are the AFC teams that are .500 or better:

The Chiefs are going to win their division. Which means they'll be one of the top 4 teams and have a home playoff game in January. Assuming that the team stays healthy, the only team I'm afraid of is the Patriots. Now the Ravens did show that the Patriots are a mortal team and a product of an easy schedule, but still. I'd rather the Ravens knock out the Patriots in January and avoid playing New England all together.

If KC were to finish 13-3, that would include a win over NE and NE would likely drop at least one more, which would give KC homefield...but I don't think KC will win out. Too many games even with Mahomes coming back. 11-5 is realistic for KC.

Still possible that NE stumbles down the stretch, but I think they will still be the #1 seed at this point.

If that's true and I want the Ravens to face them, then I'm hoping Baltimore finishes 4th. Chiefs or Texans in 2/3 would be fine, but #2 gets a bye and the game at home.

(This of course hinges on the wild-card teams losing, which obviously could happen although I'm not expecting that right now, especially with the Brissett injury.)

Bottom line, even if NE takes the top seed, every win matters as you'd rather be 2 than 3, and 3 instead of 4.

- - -

Around the league this year we've seen backups do well (Brissett, Minshew, Moore, Allen in Carolina) just as much as we've seen starters be disappointing (Trubisky, Dalton, Mayfield, Darnold).

In fact, let's look at some numbers for fun. Here's the whole league sorted by adjusted net yards per attempt.

(click to read in HD)

So there's consensus 2019 MVP favorite Russell Wilson there at #2.

For a bit of context, a middle of the pack running back is averaging 4.4 yards per carry in 2019. So Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen are the only two quarterbacks who are worse than running the ball.

Let's say I wanted to find the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. I can't count Rosen. So your Mount Rushmore of Shit QBs this year are Darnold, Trubisky, Mayfield and Jones.

Jimmy G is a top 10 QB. Brissett and Minshew are knocking on the door, ahead of Lamar and Brady.

Matt Moore's not on the above chart because of small sample size, but here's his stats:

If he qualified, he'd be 13th in the league, above Lamar Jackson and Tom Brady. Fun!

So what does that say that Matt Moore who was never really a starter and was out of the league last year can come in and be better than these guys? Coaching matters. I bet Mayfield and Trubisky would do really well under Andy Reid and if Mahomes had been drafted by the Bengals, his stats would probably be middle of the pack.

- - -

And now that we've established how bad Trubisky is...I'll end on a positive note for the Chiefs pass defense.

Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 2

When you're at the game, you're not hearing the announcers or seeing stats or even being notified of injuries. It's hard to have a sense of the game. So I'm diving in, mainly so I can understand.

Before we get into last night's game specifically, let's look at some numbers from this year.

I'm going to look at meaningful possessions. What I mean by that is, I'm not going to count kneel downs/or running out the clock. I'm trying to track points per possession, so any time the offense isn't trying to score, or doesn't have enough time to score isn't helpful.

Possessions
Week 1: Chiefs 9, Jaguars 9
Week 2: Chiefs 10, Raiders 10
Week 3: Chiefs 9, Ravens 9
Week 4: Chiefs 12, Lions 12
Week 5: Chiefs 9, Colts 9

Points per Possessions
Week 1: Chiefs 4.44, Jaguars 2.88
Week 2: Chiefs 2.8, Raiders 1
Week 3: Chiefs 3.66, Ravens 3.11
Week 4: Chiefs 2.83, Lions 2.5
Week 5: Chiefs 1.44, Colts 2.11

(Nerd footnote: I counted the Chiefs fumble return td vs Lions as both a possession and points.)

Two more stats:
yards per Brissett pass attempt: 5.2
yards per Mack run attempt: 4.6

What do all these numbers mean?

Well, first every game this year, both teams get the same amount of possessions. And it's usually going to be 9 or 10. The Lions game featured a ton of fumbles bumping it up to 12 each. So the idea of keeping using the run game to keep Mahomes on the sideline is overrated. The most points scored this year was against the Jaguars, 40 points, on 9 possessions.

Despite being porous against the run, the Chiefs are like any team in that passing gains more yards than running. QBs average 5.5 to 9 yards per pass attempt and RBs average 3 to 6 yards per run.
So like every team, the Chiefs want you to run.

The Chiefs pass defense actually held Brissett to a low average/attempt (like Trubisky low).
And while I'm not going to praise the run defense, the defense as a whole only allowed one touchdown. Going by points per possession, it was the 2nd strongest defensive showing of the year. And most importantly, if the Chiefs had been anywhere as effective on offense as they usually are, the score would have been closer to the 28-10 victory over the Raiders.

- - -

So now that we know this loss is squarely on the offense and not the defense, let's dive in and try to figure out what went wrong.

Drive 1: The Chiefs rolled down to the Colts 13 with ease, only needed to convert one 3rd down. But then there was an injury timeout that appeared to give the Colts time to adjust. Holding penalty and the Chiefs settle for a field goal.

Drive 2: Mahomes converts a 2nd and 16 with a beautiful cross body throw to Kelce. Two plays later gets sacked bringing up a 3rd and 18. Mahomes makes something out of nothing on the best play I've ever seen live. Through 2 possessions, Chiefs averaging 5 points per and everything is gravy.

Drive 3: A rare 3 and out, all incomplete passes. I was walking the suite and missed these plays.

Drive 4: The Mathieu interception sets up the Chiefs at the 37. 4 plays later and they're in the red zone, but McCoy fumbles.

Drive 5: Chiefs convert a 4th and 1 but squander it by stalling at midfield and punting.

Halftime

Drive 6: Chiefs have 3rd and 2 on the Colts 37. Mahomes throws a pass that hits the ground but is not whistled dead, instead treated like it's an interception. On the return, the Chiefs OL commits late hits out of bounds. It's overturned, but instead of 4th and 2 from the 37, it's 4th and 17.

Drive 7: Another 3 and out, all incomplete passes.

Mahomes Injury

Drive 8: Down 16-10 with 7 minutes to go, the Chiefs needed to score on this drive. On first down, there's a questionable face mask call on Robinson doing a stiffarm. 1st and 20. Sacked. 2nd and 30. Draw play. 3rd and 28. Deep pass interference but wiped away by holding penalty. 3rd and 28 again, Mahomes finds Pringle who gets 27. He absolutely had the angle and needed to get the first down, but couldn't. 4th and 1, run up the middle and stuffed.

Drive 9: The game was out of reach, but Mahomes scrambles for 14 yards on his hobbled ankle anyways. Get down and score a field goal, but without on the onside recovery, it didn't matter.


So that's Drives 3 through 8 with no points.
1 fumble in the red zone
2 three and outs
2 midfield punts
1 turnover on downs

A hodgepodge of committing penalties, drive stalling on incompletes and a turnover too.
In other words, the offense just wasn't very good on six drives in a row.

- - -

It wasn't the Mahomes injury. He was doing good stuff on the last two drives.

But the injuries all over were a huge factor. The Chiefs were missing their top 2 WR and had 2 OL injuries. The OL didn't give Mahomes time and hurt the team with holding penalties. The McCoy fumble was huge. Despite all that, Mahomes threw over 300 yards and they had a chance when it was 16-10.

The good news is this was pretty fluky from the Offense. They've never done this poorly so there's reason to think they can bounce back.

The bad news? They are injured and missing key players for more time.

Now would be a good time for a bye week, but instead they have two games next week: Sunday and Thursday. Their bye is 6 games away.

Next week is likely a shootout against the Texans who just put up 53. And I'm not feeling confident in KC like I was 24 hours ago.

Instead of thinking about homefield advantage in the AFC, they need to get healthy and find their offensive groove and figure out how to improve the run defense too.

Road to Super Bowl LIV: Chapter 1

They are two favorites to win the AFC and both are 2-0. Beyond the Chiefs and Patriots, the Ravens and Bills are also undefeated.

This is the first time being a Super Bowl favorite for me, and there's something I didn't expect. When you have a superior team, you're wary of wonky. What I mean by wonky is mostly weather-related. Like you don't want to play a fog game, or a snow game, when you're a stronger team. 

In their first two games here are the wonky elements they faced:

• 120+ degrees on the sidelines in Jacksonville
• playing without your #1 receiver
• your MVP quarterback sprains his ankle
• surprise facing against Gardener Minshew
• playing football on a baseball diamond
• your starting LT suffers a injury in Friday's practice and misses a game
• two straight games on the road

Bottom line: the Chiefs are 2-0 and already knocked out two road games. They will get a harder test against the Ravens in week 3, but this season is already shaping up like we expected: the regular season is going to be a race between the Patriots and Chiefs to see who can have homefield advantage for the AFC Championship on January 19, 2020. 

The Patriots proved last year they could go on the road to win that game. The Chiefs have a lot more to prove. 

- - -

Do you know Patrick Mahomes? He's the guy that I wrote this about, a year before he became the starter: "The Chiefs best chance to win a Super Bowl in my lifetime is the next 4 years."

Anyways, he's pretty good.

He's already the Chiefs franchise leader in games with 400 passing yards. (He's played 19 games by the way.)

- - -

Here's a list of longest streaks of road games with 3 passing TDs:

Mahomes 7
Brady 6
Favre 5 (hall of fame)
Marino 5 (hall of fame)
Blanda 5 (hall of fame)

Mahomes' streak is active by the way. His next road game is against the Lions.

- - -

With the win, the Chiefs secured a winning record against the Raiders at the Oakland Coliseum...forever.

- - -

Here's a list of most games with 300 pass yards and 3 TDs in first 40 games:

Mahomes 6
Marino 5 (hall of fame)
Warner 5 (hall of fame)

This one is especially funny because Mahomes has only played 19. Even Hall of Famers aren't this good this early.

- - -

Here's a list of most yards in a quarter:

Brees 294 (2008)
Mahomes 278 (today)

- - -

Mahomes is currently on pace for 6,592 yards and 56 touchdowns.

As a reminder, Patrick Mahomes in his first season as a starting quarterback, became the 2nd QB in NFL History to throw 50 touchdowns and 5000 passing yards. Peyton Manning did it once in 2013. Brady, Brees, Marino, Rodgers have never done it. Mahomes is 1 for 1 on the 50/5000 club.

- - -

So this started as a post about the Chiefs and in turned into a list of facts showing how incredible Mahomes is. (Which I'm not apologizing for.) But back to this season...

The Patriots have a soft schedule. They should go 8-0 without too much trouble. And then they just added Antonio Brown who will know the playbook and have chemistry with Brady by the end of the season. They have five tough games and then close with 3 easier ones. So despite a perfect Chiefs start, the Pats are still the favorites to have homefield advantage. It's a long road to glory, but Kansas City is on their way.

The Favorites for Super Bowl LIV

are the Chiefs. What a world to be living in.

Opening the Super Bowl Window

In 2012, the Chiefs had 6 Pro Bowlers. Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson, Eric Berry and Dustin Colquitt. They went 2-14, 0-6 in the division.

In 2017, the Chiefs had 4 Pro Bowlers. Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Alex Smith. They went 10-6, 5-1 in the division and made the playoffs.

In the 5 years with Andy Reid and Alex Smith, the Chiefs made the playoffs 4 times. In the prior 5 years, they only made it once.

In 2012, Chiefs fans formed an organization called Save Our Chiefs and flew banners protesting the GM. Later that season, a Chiefs player killed his girlfriend and committed suicide in front of the GM.

It's hard to overstate how bad the Chiefs were before Alex and Andy came to town. How not fun the team was back then. And then how good and fun they've been with them.

In 2013, when I found out they were coming, I said the litmus test would be to win a playoff game. And they did! For the first time in my life, I sat there and watched the Chiefs win a playoff game. I now know what that feels like, thanks to primarily to Alex and Andy.

For the first time in franchise history, the Chiefs won the division in back to back years. That's good!

4 playoff trips in 5 seasons means you belong. You're not the Jaguars crashing the party. You're the Chiefs, you make the playoffs.

I guess most of all, the games mean something. The seasons are fun. It's fun to think about in the off-season. You have hope.

In 2003, the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC. I knew the Patriots and Colts were tough, but the Chiefs had a real chance.

In 2015, the Chiefs won a playoff game. They had a chance.

In 2016, the Chiefs were the #2 seed in the AFC. Again, a real chance.

In 2017, the Chiefs looked great in the first half of their playoff game. They had a chance.

Some people can look at those chances and the fact that they never made an AFC Championship and complain about it. But you can also look at those chances and know that is a lot more fun than going 2-14.

Alex Smith has played his last game as a Chief. But he definitely left this team better than he found it. And I'll always remember the Mile High Miracle, the playoff win, the comeback against the Chargers, and all the other great wins. He was worth it.

- - -

For Washington, this trade looks pretty awful. Going from Cousins to Smith is about equal in production, but Smith is also 5 years older. Tom Brady aside, a lot of quarterbacks drop off after 35. Smith is better at not throwing picks, but I don't think he's making your team significantly better. He'll be fine, could help them win the division next year, but over the long-term, I think I'd rather have Cousins. But not only that, Washington gave up a 3rd round pick AND a great corner still on his rookie deal. Those are two prime assets. So why is Washington doing this?

Basically, they screwed up with Cousins. They made him play on 2 consecutive franchise tags because they wanted to see him prove it. Instead of keeping him and keeping their assets, they needed to replace him.

It's strange because I think Smith will be a good QB for them over the next few seasons and it pisses me off to see smug Eagles/Cowboys/Giants fans licking their chops over seeing Alex. I hope he does well and kicks some ass. But it's hard to believe that this trade will be worth it for Washington.

- - -

It's not rocket science. In basketball you want to shoot threes and lay-ups, not mid-range jumpers. In football, you want great players without having to pay them a lot. I don't think people talk about Tom Brady's salary enough. It's a huge difference maker.

The Chiefs have three years of the biggest efficiency in the game, a QB on his rookie deal. As we've seen with Winston and Mariota, it's only a game-changer if the QB plays at a Pro Bowl level. But every indication is that Mahomes can do that. He'll throw more picks, of course. But I expect some Drew Brees 400 yard, 2 score, 2 pick games that are good enough to win.

Now the Chiefs add Kendall Fuller, an awesome cornerback on his rookie deal. So our GM gets it. He understands the most obvious thing right now. The Chiefs had a pretty good team this past year. The defense could be a lot better. The offense struggled in the middle part of the season. But they were pretty good. Make them better with some free agents and draft picks, baby, you got a stew going. I was reading about the cliche that Belichick takes away your best player, and the analysis that a coach would rather have 11 average players than 6 good and 5 bad ones, and it got me thinking...it's more important to have depth and good players everywhere than it is to acquire a single all-star. To that end, Mahomes + Fuller + pick seems a hell of a lot better than just Alex Smith.

The Pat Mahomes era is here and it's exciting. (I mean, if he is a Brady/Rodgers/Manning type guy, you can compete for his whole career. But it's the first three years that give you the best chance.) You don't have to be the best team all three years--in fact, it's a little easier to suck for a year, get the easier schedule and draft picks and then reload. Brady will still be good next year. But the fall of 2019 or 2020? Brady and Big Ben will be older. The AFC could be wiiiiiiide open. I'm not saying to book your travel just yet, but you might want to keep these in mind.

2018 Season - Super Bowl 53 in Atlanta
2019 Season - Super Bowl 54 in Miami
2020 Season - Super Bowl 55 in Tampa