When you're at the game, you're not hearing the announcers or seeing stats or even being notified of injuries. It's hard to have a sense of the game. So I'm diving in, mainly so I can understand.
Before we get into last night's game specifically, let's look at some numbers from this year.
I'm going to look at meaningful possessions. What I mean by that is, I'm not going to count kneel downs/or running out the clock. I'm trying to track points per possession, so any time the offense isn't trying to score, or doesn't have enough time to score isn't helpful.
Possessions
Week 1: Chiefs 9, Jaguars 9
Week 2: Chiefs 10, Raiders 10
Week 3: Chiefs 9, Ravens 9
Week 4: Chiefs 12, Lions 12
Week 5: Chiefs 9, Colts 9
Points per Possessions
Week 1: Chiefs 4.44, Jaguars 2.88
Week 2: Chiefs 2.8, Raiders 1
Week 3: Chiefs 3.66, Ravens 3.11
Week 4: Chiefs 2.83, Lions 2.5
Week 5: Chiefs 1.44, Colts 2.11
(Nerd footnote: I counted the Chiefs fumble return td vs Lions as both a possession and points.)
Two more stats:
yards per Brissett pass attempt: 5.2
yards per Mack run attempt: 4.6
What do all these numbers mean?
Well, first every game this year, both teams get the same amount of possessions. And it's usually going to be 9 or 10. The Lions game featured a ton of fumbles bumping it up to 12 each. So the idea of keeping using the run game to keep Mahomes on the sideline is overrated. The most points scored this year was against the Jaguars, 40 points, on 9 possessions.
Despite being porous against the run, the Chiefs are like any team in that passing gains more yards than running. QBs average 5.5 to 9 yards per pass attempt and RBs average 3 to 6 yards per run.
So like every team, the Chiefs want you to run.
The Chiefs pass defense actually held Brissett to a low average/attempt (like Trubisky low).
And while I'm not going to praise the run defense, the defense as a whole only allowed one touchdown. Going by points per possession, it was the 2nd strongest defensive showing of the year. And most importantly, if the Chiefs had been anywhere as effective on offense as they usually are, the score would have been closer to the 28-10 victory over the Raiders.
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So now that we know this loss is squarely on the offense and not the defense, let's dive in and try to figure out what went wrong.
Drive 1: The Chiefs rolled down to the Colts 13 with ease, only needed to convert one 3rd down. But then there was an injury timeout that appeared to give the Colts time to adjust. Holding penalty and the Chiefs settle for a field goal.
Drive 2: Mahomes converts a 2nd and 16 with a beautiful cross body throw to Kelce. Two plays later gets sacked bringing up a 3rd and 18. Mahomes makes something out of nothing on the best play I've ever seen live. Through 2 possessions, Chiefs averaging 5 points per and everything is gravy.
Drive 3: A rare 3 and out, all incomplete passes. I was walking the suite and missed these plays.
Drive 4: The Mathieu interception sets up the Chiefs at the 37. 4 plays later and they're in the red zone, but McCoy fumbles.
Drive 5: Chiefs convert a 4th and 1 but squander it by stalling at midfield and punting.
Halftime
Drive 6: Chiefs have 3rd and 2 on the Colts 37. Mahomes throws a pass that hits the ground but is not whistled dead, instead treated like it's an interception. On the return, the Chiefs OL commits late hits out of bounds. It's overturned, but instead of 4th and 2 from the 37, it's 4th and 17.
Drive 7: Another 3 and out, all incomplete passes.
Mahomes Injury
Drive 8: Down 16-10 with 7 minutes to go, the Chiefs needed to score on this drive. On first down, there's a questionable face mask call on Robinson doing a stiffarm. 1st and 20. Sacked. 2nd and 30. Draw play. 3rd and 28. Deep pass interference but wiped away by holding penalty. 3rd and 28 again, Mahomes finds Pringle who gets 27. He absolutely had the angle and needed to get the first down, but couldn't. 4th and 1, run up the middle and stuffed.
Drive 9: The game was out of reach, but Mahomes scrambles for 14 yards on his hobbled ankle anyways. Get down and score a field goal, but without on the onside recovery, it didn't matter.
So that's Drives 3 through 8 with no points.
1 fumble in the red zone
2 three and outs
2 midfield punts
1 turnover on downs
A hodgepodge of committing penalties, drive stalling on incompletes and a turnover too.
In other words, the offense just wasn't very good on six drives in a row.
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It wasn't the Mahomes injury. He was doing good stuff on the last two drives.
But the injuries all over were a huge factor. The Chiefs were missing their top 2 WR and had 2 OL injuries. The OL didn't give Mahomes time and hurt the team with holding penalties. The McCoy fumble was huge. Despite all that, Mahomes threw over 300 yards and they had a chance when it was 16-10.
The good news is this was pretty fluky from the Offense. They've never done this poorly so there's reason to think they can bounce back.
The bad news? They are injured and missing key players for more time.
Now would be a good time for a bye week, but instead they have two games next week: Sunday and Thursday. Their bye is 6 games away.
Next week is likely a shootout against the Texans who just put up 53. And I'm not feeling confident in KC like I was 24 hours ago.
Instead of thinking about homefield advantage in the AFC, they need to get healthy and find their offensive groove and figure out how to improve the run defense too.
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