Week 18: Team by Team NFL Recap

This year, I did something new for the NFL season. I did weekly blog posts, and throughout the season (in weeks 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15) I evaluated the playoff picture and divided teams into Playoff Teams, Cross-Off Teams, and In The Middle

So that's 8 Check-Ins where I really sorted teams. I thought it would be fun to go back and see how teams performed, how I performed, see what can be learned from this exercise. I'll go in reverse order of league finish. 

Team by Team: Non-Playoff Teams

Panthers: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins. 

Commanders: They were in the middle in Week 2 at 2-0 but then crossed-off in Weeks 5 and 7. Back to in the hunt at Week 9, before being crossed-off in Week 11, 14 and 15. 

Cardinals: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins. 

Patriots: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins. 

Chargers: In the Middle through week 9, Crossed-off in Week 11 and remained crossed-off.

Giants: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.

Titans: In the Middle through week 7, Crossed-off in Week 9 and remained crossed-off.

Vikings: In the Middle Week 2, Crossed-off for Weeks 3, 5, 7. In the Middle for the rest of the season.

Bears: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.

Falcons: In the middle for the first 7 check-ins, finally crossed off in Week 15.

Jets: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for 7 check-ins. The exception was in week 9 when they lived in the nether space between Crossed-Off and In The Middle. 

Raiders: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off for all 8 check-ins.

Broncos: Crossed-Off in Week 2 and remained crossed-off until Week 11. In the Middle for Weeks 11 and 14. Crossed-off for good in Week 15. 

Bengals: In the Middle for weeks 1-7. Playoffs for Week 9. Then they lost Burrow. Cross-off for Week 11. But then back to in the middle for weeks 14 and 15. 

Seahawks: In the Middle for the whole season until Crossed-off in Week 15. 

Saints: In the Middle for the whole season. 

Jaguars: In the Middle for the first three check-ins. Playoff Team from Week 7 to Week 14. Down to In the Middle for Week 15.

Colts: Crossed-off Week 2. In the Middle through Week 7. Nether space week 9. In the Middle rest of the way. 

Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, 2 teams received the Playoff Team designation. The Bengals and then they lost Burrow. And the Jags who choked down the stretch.

Of the 18 teams that missed the playoffs, I crossed-off 16 at one point. The two teams that I never crossed-off: Saints and Jaguars.

5 teams were correctly crossed-off from the very beginning and I never wavered on.

Team by Team: Playoff Teams

Bucs: In the middle through week 7. Crossed-off in Week 9. In the Middle in 11 and 14. Playoff team in 15. 

Packers: In the middle through week 5. Crossed-off in Week 7 and 9. In the middle in 11. Playoff team in 14. Crossed-off in 15. 

Texans: Crossed-off in week 2. In the middle in week 3 and for the rest of the season.

Rams: In the middle through week 7. Crossed-off in Week 9. In the middle in 11. Playoff team in 14 and 15.

Steelers: In the middle the whole season through week 14. Finally crossed-off in Week 15. 

Bills: Playoff team through week 7. In the middle from Week 9 on. 

Chiefs: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Browns: In the middle for all 8 check-ins. 

Eagles: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Dolphins: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Cowboys: Playoff team in 7 out of 8 check-ins. Were in the middle in week 3 after their loss to the Cardinals.

Lions: In the middle for 2 and 3. Playoff team from week 5 through the rest of the season.

49ers: Playoff team in all 8 check-ins.

Ravens: Playoff team in 6 out of 8 check-ins. In the middle in weeks 3 and 5. 

5 out of 14 playoff teams got crossed-off at one point. Whoops.

11 out of 14 playoff teams got called a playoff team at one point. Exceptions: Texans, Steelers, Browns.

Teams I crossed off at one point: 21 (max should have been 18)

Teams I designated as playoff teams at one point: 13 (out of 14-team field)

- - -

Week 2 Evaluation

10 teams were crossed-off. 9 missed the playoffs. (Texans)

7 teams were playoff teams. All 7 made the playoffs. 

16 out of 17 correct after Week 2.

Week 3 Evaluation

9 teams were crossed-off. 9 missed the playoffs. 

5 teams were playoff teams. All 5 made the playoffs. 

14 out of 14 correct in Week 3.

Week 5 Evaluation

10 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. 

7 teams were playoff teams. All 7 made the playoffs. 

17 out of 17 correct in Week 5.

Week 7 Evaluation

11 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. (Packers)

9 teams were playoff teams. 8 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

18 out of 20 correct in Week 7.

Week 9 Evaluation

11 teams were crossed-off. 8 missed the playoffs. (Packers, Rams, Bucs)

9 teams were playoff teams. 8 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

17 out of 20 correct in Week 9.

Week 11 Evaluation

11 teams were crossed-off. 11 missed the playoffs. 

8 teams were playoff teams. 7 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

18 out of 19 correct in Week 11.

Week 14 Evaluation

10 teams were crossed-off. 10 missed the playoffs. 

10 teams were playoff teams. 9 made the playoffs. (Jaguars)

19 out of 20 correct in Week 14.

Week 15 Evaluation

15 teams were crossed-off. 13 missed the playoffs. (Steelers, Packers)

9 teams were playoff teams. 9 made the playoffs. 

22 out of 24 correct in Week 15.

- - - 

This is so eye-opening. If you just look at the team-by-team, there's so much variance. It's up and down. It feels like it's impossible to get a grasp on a team. 

But then if you look at how I did by week, and only focus on playoff vs cross-off, it's actually wild. 

In any given week, I'm close to 95% accurate, and that started immediately in weeks 2 and 3. At the end of the season, there's no value to be had...But knowing 16 out of 17 teams futures in week 2? You can easily bet teams to make playoffs or miss playoffs, and even if a team is +250 or whatever, you're going to come out of ahead of you can go 16 out of 17. 

Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

AFC

The Ravens have clinched the #1 seed. 

The AFC East winner is the #2 seed. Bills at Dolphins next week for the division.

The Chiefs are locked into the #3 spot and can rest guys next week if they want to. 

The AFC South winner is the #4 seed. Jaguars are 3.5 point favorites at Titans. 

Browns are locked in as the #5 seed. 

The Bills can miss the playoffs if they lose and Jaguars and Steelers win. Steelers are playing Ravens, but they've already locked everything up. So Ravens should rest Lamar. They could win if they want to hurt the Steelers, but it's entirely possible that Jags and Steelers win. That scenario sets up Bills win and they get the #2 seed. Lose and they miss the playoffs. 

Dolphins have clinched a playoff spot, so even if they lose the division, they're still in the field. But #6 seed means going to Arrowhead. #2 seed gets a home game vs....likely the winner of Colts/Texans. 

Chiefs ended the 2022 Bengals season in Burrowhead Arrowhead in the AFC Championship. 

Chiefs ended the 2023 Bengals season in Arrowhead in week 17. 

Chiefs also ended the 2023 Broncos season today. 

So yeah, that was a big win. 

Eliminated: Raiders, Broncos, Chargers, Patriots, Jets, Bengals, Titans

In: Ravens, Dolphins, Browns, Chiefs. 

Winner of Colts/Texans is in. 

That leaves 2 spots for Jaguars, Bills, Steelers. 

Jags and Bills control their destiny: win and in. Steelers will need help. 

NFC

49ers secured the #1 seed and the bye.

Thanks to some rigged bullshit calls, the Cowboys just need to scoot past Commanders to claim the #2 spot.

Which would mean Chiefs and Lions are both #3 seeds, what a world. 

Tampa is going to beat the Panthers and get the #4 spot. 

Eagles will get #5. 

The Rams have clinched. 

So the final spot can be drama-free if the Packers can beat the Bears in Lambeau. Of course, the Bears have been playing well, so if they pull the upset, then it opens the doors to Seahawks. 

Here's the playoff picture, if all the Vegas favorites win their games:

Just for fun...let's say this is the playoff field and KC beats Miami. Bills would get by Colts, and Chiefs would go to Buffalo in round 2, then Baltimore in round 3. (Of course, the Chiefs of the last month do not get by the Bills of the last month.) 

But if the Bills happen to stumble, then Colts would go to Baltimore and Jags/Browns would come to Arrowhead. 

The path to a 6th straight AFC Championship in Arrowhead is very slim. It requires Ravens to lose their first game in round 2, plus the 2 seed has to lose in one of the first two rounds, plus the Chiefs have to win two games. 

Also, this is way premature as the playoff field isn't even set. Sorry for wasting your time!

Week 15 Playoff Picture

There are 5 teams with a point differential above 100+. And the defending champions are not one of them. 

If you sort by winning percentage instead, here are the top teams:

So the Cowboys are frauds who can't beat good teams or win on the road. 

Look at the Eagles and Lions point differential. Red flag. Not to mention the Lions playoff history doesn't inspire confidence.

So the actual good teams are:

49ers

Ravens

Dolphins

Bills

Except the Bills are 9th in the AFC. So they're essentially a top-5 team in the NFL but they have work to do to make the playoffs. 

Here's the live look at Super Bowl odds:

So if you believe them, we're headed for a rematch of Super Bowl 47, the Blackout Bowl, featuring 49ers and Ravens.

- - -

There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season. Which means only two more times after today to be thinking about cross-offs and hopefuls. So let's get into it.

AFC

Actually eliminated: Patriots, Jets, Titans

Cross-Offs: Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Steelers

Playoff Teams: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, AFC South Winner

The next most likely playoff team according to the NYTimes is the Browns, who are on their 4th QB of the year. And it's Joe Flacco. Real football analysis is really hard. So I tend to focus on the quarterback first and foremost and I tend to be right more than I'm wrong on my NFL predictions. So to see this Browns team winning despite the QB room, it shows that sometimes you have to consider more than one position. 

NYT gives the Bills a 71% chance to make the playoffs, which is good, but not as high as you would think for a team that might be the scariest in the league. 

So beyond Ravens/Dolphins/Chiefs, there are 4 AFC spots up for grabs for 6 teams. Here they are in order of NYT percentages:

Browns. Jaguars. Bills. Texans. Colts. Bengals. 

Looking at the schedule, it still looks like Jaguars division to lose. 

Okay, so I just did a quick ESPN Playoff Machine just to see. I see the Broncos winning out over Patriots, Chargers, Raiders. If that happens, the Bills would have to beat the Dolphins, 2-1 does not get Bills in over Broncos. 

So if I have the Broncos lose their last game to the Raiders, and Bills lose to Dolphins, then the Colts grab the 7th seed. 

But then you let the Bills win out and all of a sudden they're the 4th seed and Miami is a wild-card team. 

Then I switched the Ravens losing to the Dolphins in week 17, going along with Ravens losing to the 49ers next week. 

That's all it took to get this:

Chiefs get the bye and Ravens are a wild-card. The work for the Ravens is not done yet.

For now, I'd say yes to Browns, Jags, Bills. Quiet yes to Texans assuming they get Stroud back. Bengals would not surprise me at all.

- - -

NFC

Actually eliminated: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

Cross-Offs: Bears, Giants, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs, Rams

1 spot left for Vikings, Saints

Vikings schedule is harder. So Saints and Bucs make the playoffs? Wild.

Week 14 Mess

Let's start with the Chiefs. They're not just not a very good team right now. 

By point differential they are 6th in the league, by record 7th in the league. But they've lost 3 of their last 4 since returning from Germany. Here's how many points the Chiefs have put up in their last 6 games: 9, 21, 17, 31, 19, 17.

It's penalties, it's drops, it's losing the turnover battle. Poor execution in general. Last week they started losing players on defense to injury, and the WR room is so bad you would think it's been decimated by injuries, but nope, these are the starters. They can hang with anyone, but can also lose to anyone. If they were playing the 49ers right now on a neutral field, I think the line should be 49ers -7.5 or something like that. 

They're going to win the AFC West, but could easily be the 3-seed, even if they win out. 

The silver lining? The teams ahead of them don't inspire playoff confidence. The Ravens simply do not seem that strong and Lamar is 1-3 in the playoffs and has the history of blowing the 1-seed. The Dolphins might have the talent to get to the Super Bowl, but they still have to stay healthy and put it together. I'm still more scared of the Bills. (I would very much like to avoid them in the wild-card round. There are so many dogshit AFC teams, please avoid playing Buffalo again.)

- - -

The playoff picture is a mess. The only way to sort it out? Let's start with some Cross-Offs. 

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Titans, Jets, Raiders, Chargers

Division Winners: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Jaguars

Wild-Card Hopefuls: That leaves 7 teams fighting for 3 wild-card spots. 

And it really is a mess. Here are the teams in order of my judgement of quality:

Bills, Texans, Browns, Bengals, Broncos, Colts, Steelers

The Steelers just shit the bed twice in a row against gimme teams. I know the Texans had a bad game yesterday, but they also beat the Broncos head to head. Bills, Texans, Browns seem likely but Flacco? The Bengals seemed fine without Burrow yesterday, so maybe them. Who knows?

Does any AFC team seem like they can win the Super Bowl?

NFC

Cross-Offs: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Giants, Bears

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, NFC South winner

Wild-Card Teams: Packers, Rams

I don't think the Vikings with Jefferson hurt again and Nick Mullens at QB can do it. 

I think the Falcons/Saints/Bucs are fighting for the division spot but not for a wild-card spot. Still holding out hope for the Falcons like an idiot. 

- - -

Here's how Vegas ranks the only 6 teams with less than 10-1 odds:

SF

Baltimore

Miami

3-way tie: Philly, Dallas, KC

Here's my takeaway. The NFC is top heavy. The AFC is wide open. Could be the year with a 5th seed Bills, 7th seed Bengals or 4th seed Chiefs sneak in to the Super Bowl to face the 49ers/Eagles/Cowboys in the Super Bowl.

Week 13 Clusterfuck

Let's start with the Jags. Entering the 4th quarter, they had the ball, up 7, going against Jake Browning and the Bengals. Hold on for 15 minutes to win the game and they'd be sitting in the #1 seed in the AFC and control their destiny. ESPN's model gives them an 80% chance to win at this point. 

What happens? Bengals get a stop. They score a TD. Jags are driving with a tie game and with less than 6 minutes to play, the franchise QB gets his ankle crushed by his own lineman. The Jags miss a 48-yard field goal at home. And then the Bengals make a 54-yarder and a 48-yarder in OT to win. 

So the Jags lose the game. They don't get to sit in the top spot. And now Lawrence is going to miss time. That's the margin for error in the NFL. Everything can go to shit in one play. 

- - -

Meanwhile the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl (49ers) is not the team with the best record (Eagles). SF is clearly the best team right now and it doesn't seem particularly close. And yet, they're only good when all their players are healthy. So in light of how many injuries we've seen around the league this year, to the 49ers this year, and to Purdy last year in the playoffs, I wouldn't exactly say that it's a lock for SF to stay healthy through February. 

- - -

And yes the Chiefs blew it on Sunday night. Their next game is hosting the Bills who are always scary. But after that, its the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals without Burrow, and Chargers who will be eliminated. So 12-5 is in play even with a loss to the Bills this week. But uh, if you want the #1 seed, I recommend winning out, getting to 13-4. 

The playoff picture is a mess. I'm skipping cross-offs until next week. Hopefully this week will help sort things out. 

Week 12: Home Stretch

If the Bills had won, the headline would have been about how important it is to make mid-season changes. 

The Steelers fire Matt Canada and beat the Bengals. 

The Bills fire Ken Dorsey and beat the Eagles. 

That's how easy it is. Switch OC in the middle of the season and your season is saved. 

But instead Jake Elliot made a 59-yard field goal in the rain. 

So that's not the headline. The story is that the Bengals without Burrow suck and the Bills are in danger of missing the playoffs just like Cincinnati. 

- - -

7 of our 8 division winners are essentially decided, confirmed by being heavy favorites on FanDuel. 

The one race that's not is Falcons-Saints. 

Of the other 7, the two that are the most up for grabs are Lions being -550 to win the NFC North and Ravens being -270 to win the AFC North. (Compared with lines like Chiefs -4000 and 49ers -3000)

Quick update of the division winners with Calcutta owners:

Dolphins - Kirat

Ravens - Kirat

Jaguars - Dave

Chiefs - Kirat

Eagles - Matt

Lions - Mark

49ers - Dave

Falcons - Dave or Saints - Mark

Kirat is in a pretty good spot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. 

If I had to pick 3 AFC wild-card teams today, I would pick Steelers, Texans and ... Colts based on their schedule down the stretch. 

If I had to pick 3 NFC wild-card teams today, I would pick Cowboys, Vikings and ... Packers based on their schedule. The Seahawks are better than the Packers but Seattle's schedule is so, so difficult. 

If Falcons win their division and my wild-card teams are correct, then I'll have 6 of my 8 Calcutta teams in the playoffs, owning 43% of the playoff field in a 4-man competition. Of course, the Packers are a big stretch right now, the Steelers could easily miss, the Saints could overtake the Falcons, and just like that I've got 3 teams, 21% of the field. So who knows. 

I don't love that the Eagles keep winning and have the track to own the bye and homefield, a huge advantage over my 49ers. This week they play each other, so if SF wants to fight for the bye, this is a must-win.

Week 11: Motor City Comeback

Today's top story?

The Lions are 8-2 for the first time in the Super Bowl era. As a reminder, we've had 57 Super Bowls. 

Let's zoom in on the 4th quarter. The Bears are up 9 and go on a 14-play scoring drive that eats up almost 9 minutes of clock. The Lions will only have 4:15 left. 

But it was already a 9-point game. Kicking a field goal and making it a 12-point game, takes it from a two-possession game to a two-possession game. The difference it takes two touchdowns instead of a touchdown and field goal. But if you really wanted to win this game, that's not a meaningful difference. 

At 26-14, I thought to myself, the Lions are going to win 28-26. 

The Lions score in one minute. Then the Bears go run, run, incomplete. Detroit used two timeouts. The Bears ran 15 seconds off the clock. The Lions take over down 5 with 2:33 to play. Game over. 

If the Chiefs win tomorrow, then the Lions will be tied for best record in the league. 

- - -

The Chargers have a +21 point differential. They're 4-6. That's not supposed to happen. Here's the standings for teams .500 to .400:

Take a peek at the point differential column on the right. If you've scored more points than you've given up at this point, it should translate to wins. The Chargers are the king of blowing close games. 

There are all these teams who are dying to find a franchise QB, teams with good defenses like Browns and Jets who would kill to have someone like Herbert, and the Chargers are just wasting him.

FYI, The Bills are in a similar situation, currently $29M over the 2024 cap. 

- - -

Tommy DeVito now has more passing touchdowns (6) this season than Zach Wilson (5). 

- - -

Let's do some Cross-offs!

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Titans, Jets, Chargers Bengals, Raiders

Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins

The Browns have the defense and the record but I'm not ready to count them as a playoff team given their QB room and their history. Losing Burrow took the Bengals from a Playoff Team to a Cross-Off just like that. Sucks for whoever bought them in Calcutta. 

In the Hunt: Browns, Bills, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Broncos

These 5 are fighting for three spots. Bills, Texans and Browns are the best teams. Texans have 7th seed written all over them. Broncos winning SNF keeps their winning streak alive and keeps them from being a cross off.

NFC

Cross-Offs: Panthers, Cardinals, Bears, Giants, Commanders

Playoff Teams: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys

The NFC is kinda dogshit. All these 4-6 teams that should be cross-offs but there are so many that I can't cross them all off.

In The Hunt: Vikings, Seahawks, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Rams, Packers

When it looked like Vikes would win SNF, I had them as a playoff team. The loss knocks them just to in the hunt. The Seahawks are sitting in a spot, but with their loss today I'm not 100% convinced they won't keep losing down the stretch. 

Honestly, the #2 seed in the NFC is pretty tasty. The 7th seed is going to be terrible. So you get a home playoff game where you're a 7-point favorite, build some momentum, get a playoff win under your belt.

- - -

Quick Calcutta Check-in:

Here are the teams sorted by Super Bowl odds, under 20-1:

Chiefs - Kirat

Eagles - Matt

49ers - Dave

Ravens - Kirat

Dolphins - Kirat

Cowboys - Dave

Lions - Mark

Jaguars - Dave

Week 10: Worst and Best

I've spent a decent amount of time looking at the best NFL teams. Let's start this week by looking at the worst. 

The Panthers are 1-8. Their only victory was by 2 points over the Texans. And looking at their schedule, they don't have any dogshit teams remaining. They seem to have a strangehold on the worst record...except for the crazy fact that they don't own their 1st round pick. So they have no motivations to keep losing. They lost to the Bears and Saints by 3 points each. It's not impossible to think they can get to 3 wins, possibly 4 if they're playing harder at the end of the year than some other teams. 

The Cardinals are 2-8 but on a one-game winning streak with Kyler back. The team wants to see what Kyler can do and he has stuff to prove, so I think they'll win at least 3 more and not be vying for the #1 pick. 

The other two teams with only 2 wins are the Patriots and Giants. If there ever was a team who could successfully tank, it would be the Patriots right? Belichick knows he needs a QB and knows this season is over. The Giants on the other hand are legitimately terrible, top to bottom. Pats and Giants play each other on 11/26 and the winner will be the loser. The Pats should crush the Giants, so Belichick is going to need to gameplan some sneaky stuff to lose. 

- - -

Here are the 3 teams with the best records in the NFL:

The Lions were a hot preseason pick and it's actually happening. Their offense has scored more points than the Chiefs. They're 4-1 on the road. Wild stuff. 

- - -

I am once again reminded of the razor-thin margins in the NFL. 

Let's look at the Bills. If you were a Bills fan and had a magic wand, it wouldn't take that much to turn the season around. 

Week 1: They were beating the Jets in the Aaron Rodgers injury game. They lose on a punt return in OT. 

Week 7: They were up late over the Pats, and Mac Jones comes down the field to win at the buzzer.

Week 10: Denver misses the kick at the buzzer. All the Bills needed was to have 11 men on the field. 

If those 3 games go the Bills way, they would be 8-2 in 1st place in the AFC. Ken Dorsey would have a job. 

Of course, they really should have lost to the Giants in Week 6. 

And who knows how the last two years play out differently if they do a squib kick against the Chiefs with 13 seconds left.

Week 9: Halfway Home

Let's start here: The last bye week in the AFC is Week 13. 

Here is the Chiefs schedule through week 13:

home vs Eagles on MNF

at Raiders

at Packers on SNF

Let's assume Chiefs win 2 out of those three. That means after week 13, KC will be 9-3. 

Chiefs own the tiebreaker over the Jaguars and Dolphins. And they currently have a better AFC record than the Ravens, 5-1 vs 4-2, which is the first tiebreaker. 

For the Ravens to be in 1st place over a 9-3 KC, they would need to go 3-0 over Browns, Bengals, Chargers. 

For the Jaguars to be in 1st place over a 9-3 KC, they would need to go 4-0 over 49ers, Titans, Texans, Bengals.

The point here is that the tiebreakers are huge. The Chiefs still have to play the Bills and Bengals so nothing is locked up by any means, but it's still a great spot to be in. 

- - -

The Bengals are back. They've won 4 in a row.

The Ravens are strong. They've won 4 in a row.

You know what, let's just do the AFC Playoff Picture now. 

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Titans

Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins, Bengals. 

That leaves two wild-card spots for Bills, Browns, Steelers, Texans, Chargers.  (Colts and Jets live in the nether space between In The Hunt and Cross-Offs at the moment.)

I still think the Bills can rally for a wild-card spot. Browns/Steelers/Texans/Chargers for one spot is pretty interesting. I might go Browns right now thinking that their defense is the best unit of any on these four teams.

- - -

NFC

Cross-Offs: Cardinals, Panthers, Giants, Bears, Rams, Packers, Bucs.

Playoff Teams: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys.

That leaves three spots for five teams. 

Saints are leading the South.

Commanders were sellers of their D-line at the deadline.

Bad loss for the Seahawks.

The Vikings should miss the playoffs without a QB that's been there for a week.

And the Falcons just loss to the Vikings without a QB that's been there for a week.

Saints and Seahawks still seem like safest bets. Vikings-Falcons is up for grabs I guess and Vikings just grabbed the tiebreaker. So Dobbs is going to carry the Vikes to a 7-seed?

- - -

If we're talking pure contenders, there's not a lot of teams I trust. I still don't trust the Ravens despite their good performances. Something about Lamar getting hurt in December, something about lack of playoff success. I'm just not ready to believe in them as a legit contender. This could be the year where Lamar writes a new narrative but it's going to be hard for me to believe without seeing it.

As of right now, if I had to predict the AFC/NFC Championship games, I would pick Bengals at Chiefs and 49ers at Eagles...which was exactly what we got in January 2023.

Week 8 Decisions

The Vikings are at a crossroads. 

They're 4-4 and firmly in the hunt for a wild-card spot, with only 5 NFC teams with a better record. At the moment the only trail the Lions by one win, prior to the Lions playing tonight. 

In the standings, their season still has hope. 

But they just lost Cousins for the year AND it was his last year of his contract. So they needed a new QB of the future before this Achilles injury. Plus, Justin Jefferson is dealing with a hamstring injury and is a couple weeks away from returning. 

So you have two paths. 

1) Replace Cousins with a stop-gap solution. Spend draft capital to go get someone like Jacoby Brissett or someone of that quality. Get Jefferson back in the building as soon as you can and push to make the playoffs this year. Very possible to get a wild-card spot. Maybe even win a first-round playoff game if everything falls right. 

2) Play out the rest of the year with the QB room you have. Save your draft capital, and in fact, accept that you could end the year with a top-10 pick if you essentially tank from here on out. Let Jefferson get all the way healthy. Don't risk any further injury. Ya know what, take December off too Justin. Finish at 5-12 and draft a new QB in the top 10 next year. 

I realize it sucks to give up on the season before Halloween. But I would extend the coach and just say hey, let's build something next year. 

- - -

Three weeks ago, the 49ers were fresh off stomping the Cowboys by 32 and were 5-0. Seemed like the best team in the league. The discussion was who would get the #1 seed, 49ers or Eagles. Now they're not even in 1st place in their division. 

Literally, the 49ers lost to the Eagles last year in the playoffs because the 49ers were too injured. And once again, the 49ers get banged up and are struggling. 

Your QB that couldn't lose a game, now can't win a game. 

Suddenly, whiffing on Trey Lance seems like a much bigger failure. Of course, in a league with so few quarterbacks playing well, it's not like they can upgrade during the season. Perhaps the only thing they can do is spend money on the medical staff at this point.

- - -

Speaking of so few good QBs, let's dive into that. Here's my current top ten with the Ringer's rankings mostly intact after the top ten. 

The point of this is not to debate Baker Mayfield vs Mac Jones, (though I'd rather have Mayfield) but just to show the sheer drop off. 

Dak is not a QB you'd be thrilled to have locked up for a guaranteed 5-year deal. 

Goff is a QB the Rams had to trade away to win the Super Bowl. 

And they're still in my top 10!

Geno is in my mind a solid average starter. He should be the 16th best QB in the league. 

Stafford is old and just got hurt. Cousins is out for the year. Anything after Cousins is something you absolutely do not want. With the exception of Stroud looks good for a rookie. Richardson is talented but too fragile. Levis isn't even on the website yet. He's only had one good game. But because of the bleak situation I'd rather have him than Carr, or either Jones.

Even though I just said Geno is solid/average, I'll be generous and say we have 11 good, healthy QBs in the league right now. That's pitiful. There are 14 playoff teams!

Let's go one notch deeper. 

Let's align my top 11 QBs by division. 

AFC East

Allen

Tua

AFC North

Lamar

Burrow

AFC South

Lawrence

AFC West

Mahomes

Herbert

NFC East

Hurts

Dak

NFC North

Goff

NFC South

(none)

NFC West

Geno

This kinda tells the whole story of the league right now, right?

Based on this alone, you would say those should be the 7 AFC playoff teams. 

And in the NFC, you're missing the 49ers. That says so much. 

Week 7 New Super Bowl Favorite

The 6-1 Kansas City Chiefs are the new favorite to win the Super Bowl, ahead of 49ers, Eagles, and Cowboys. 

The Bills looked dominant in weeks 2-4, then went to London and have looked like shit since then. They're 4-3 and just don't seem like a contender at the moment. Which they have time to fix that...but their best hope of making it to the Super Bowl was getting that #1 seed and the only bye, forcing the Chiefs/Dolphins* (or whoever the other top teams are by January) to play each other. But with a 4-3 record, even if they round into form, their odds of getting the bye are not ideal. 

The Dolphins just lost to the Eagles. Like, it's cool to drop 70 on the Broncos. It really is. But Miami needs to beat a good team before we're sure they're a Super Bowl contender. 

I can't say it enough, the November 5 Germany game between KC and Miami is huge. If Miami wins that, it would vault them into first place in the AFC via head-to-head tiebreaker. Lose, and Chiefs might be able to secure the #1 seed and rest players in the regular season. 

- - -

Coming into the season, I wasn't confident that the Chiefs would be the same Super Bowl contender we saw last year. I know how hard it is to repeat AND there were bad vibes around Kelce's injury and Chris Jones' holdout. Well the bad vibes are gone. The defense is legit good, the only team to hold every opponent to 20 or less. The offense looked sharp again. Hardman already made an impact with a 50-yard punt return and Charles Omenihu helped the defense in his first game for the Chiefs. At this point, it feels like all the pressure is on other teams to prove they belong in the same conversation with the Chiefs. Pretty nice spot to be in at week 7. (Of course, there's 11 more weeks in the regular season. It can all go to hell for tons of reasons, including injuries. Nothing is guaranteed. Et cetera.)

- - -

Who's the second best team in the division?

The Raiders? With the -49 point differential and just got blown out by TYSON BAGENT and the Bears?

The Chargers? Who have 2 wins after week 7? And are 14th out of 16 in the AFC standings?

Or the Broncos? Who also have 2 wins and gave up 70 points this year?

Okay, it's the Chargers. But still. 2-4 is not where you want to be after choking a playoff game.

- - -

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Jets

Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Dolphins, Ravens, Jaguars, Bills.

I know it's early but it looks your four division winners are in this group. I'm not ready to believe in Steelers or Browns. As of right now, I would put the Bengals and Texans as more likely to be wild-card teams. 

NFC

Cross-Offs: Giants, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders, Packers

Packers are a new addition. I was believing through 3-4 weeks. Last two weeks, back to back losses to Raiders and Broncos. Yeesh.

7 out of 16 crossed-off in Week 7, including every NFC North team except the Lions. 

Playoff Teams: Eagles, 49ers, Lions, Cowboys, probably Seahawks, probably Falcons

Week 6 Chiefs vs Lions Super Bowl

There are no undefeated teams in the NFL. 

There are 5 teams tied with the best record: 5-1. 

Chiefs and Dolphins in the AFC. 49ers, Eagles and Lions in the NFC. 

I know we're not halfway through the season yet, but still...this is the closest we've ever been to a Chiefs-Lions Super Bowl. How close are we?

Chiefs are the AFC favorite at just +230. Lions are behind the Cowboys but only because Dallas is a public team. Lions at +600 to go to the Super Bowl. 

And if you parlay the two tickets, the odds are +2210. So sure, still a longshot. 22-1 odds. But it's not a longshot like Leicester when they were 5000-1 to win the Premier League. 

There are exactly 7 AFC teams with a point differential over 10: Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Jaguars and Browns. 

Likewise, exactly 7 NFC teams with a point differential over 10: 49ers, Lions, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Seahawks, Saints. 

Is it that simple? Are those our 14 playoff teams? If it is that simple, remind me just to make money off of this.

Week 5 Power Poll

AFC

Cross-Offs: Patriots, Broncos, Raiders, Jets

I think Richardson is made of glass so I'll stick with Jags as AFC South Favorite. (Although I don't love the Jags this week after two weeks in London.)

I'm not convinced any team in the AFC North is good yet. 

Still seems like Dolphins, Bills and Chiefs are the top 3. Can't cross any more teams off because they're all so mediocre. 

NFC

Cross-Offs: Giants, Bears, Vikings, Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

These teams stink. 6 out of 16 crossed-off in Week 5. 

Playoff Teams: Eagles, 49ers, Lions, probably Cowboys

That leaves 3 playoff spots for these 6 teams: Bucs, Seahawks, Falcons, Saints, Packers, Rams. At this point, Seahawks seem most likely. Then Saints. I would have said Packers if they would have beaten the Raiders. 

Calcutta Power Poll

1 49ers

2 Eagles

3 Chiefs

4 Dolphins

5 Bills

6 Lions

7 Cowboys?

It gets pretty murky around here. Vegas still likes the Ravens above the Lions but I don't. And it likes the Cowboys just behind Dolphins and Bills which seems too high. (Public team tax I guess). 

Feeling good about my Calcutta 49ers and Cowboys. Jaguars and Falcons both moving in the right direction. Steelers and Chargers still doing fine. Jets are who they are without Rodgers. And Packers would have been a lot better with a win last night. 

Mark desperately needs Burrow to get Bengals back into form. Lions are his best team. Saints and Browns have signs of life, but that Chubb injury hurts.

Matt's a two team roster with Eagles and Bills leading the way. 

And Kirat's got Chiefs and Dolphins with Ravens plus Seahawks and Bucs doing fine. 

Week 4 Favorites

Let's take an updated look at the best teams in each conference. Starting in the AFC.

I was sitting in a sportsbook yesterday and saw this graphic:

So it's kinda funny right? Last week, the Dolphins were 3-0 and had just scored 70. So they had a 45% chance of going to the Super Bowl? But after one road game, they're down to 20%. And the Bills took all those odds from them. 

Look, I get it. The Bills were dominant this week, and beat the Dolphins so sure, they're ahead of them. But they also lost Tre White for the year. 

I came into the year thinking that the Chiefs might have a down year, and didn't think they were worth taking in Calcutta factoring in the price tag. But I think the Bills at 40% right now is just as artificial as the Dolphins at 45% last week. Prisoner of the moment. 

Here's the current Vegas odds:

So it's Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and then a big drop to the Chargers. The Bengals are cooked this year, sorry. Same for Browns without Chubb. I would put the Jaguars above the Bengals, but they haven't looked good yet either. 

If you look at the top 4, we're saying the Chiefs and winner of the AFC East are the top two teams. So we could be headed toward another Bills vs Chiefs playoff game. I don't believe in the Ravens as a real playoff threat. Chargers or Jaguars could win a game but that's about it. 

It will really come down to the health of the Chiefs, Bills and Dolphins. Plus, homefield advantage. Hypothetically, if the Chiefs secure the 1 seed, and the Bills win the East, then the Dolphins would have to go through Buffalo in the cold/snow to reach Arrowhead in the cold. The track meet Dolphins wouldn't be as favored there as they would be if they could secure homefield throughout and make the winner of Chiefs/Bills come to Miami. 

Chiefs play Dolphins on Nov 5. Chiefs play Bills on Dec 10. Bills end the season in Miami.

My take: It's not about which one of these teams is the best, but who gets the #1 seed. (Also, entirely possible the Dolphins just become mediocre, or Chiefs or Bills for that matter.)

NFC

I don't have any ESPN analytics numbers for the NFC, but here's the Vegas odds:

49ers, Eagles and Cowboys all look elite. And look who's the only other team in the mix at less than 10 to 1...the Lions. As much as we all love the Lions, I don't think we can put them on the same level as the other three. 

So it's an eerily similar story in the NFC as the AFC. The 49ers are the best team, also in the West, and the two next best teams are in the East, fighting for the division. 

At this point, I trust the Eagles a lot more than the Cowboys. The Super Bowl Loss Hangover, which used to be my most reliable metric, now doesn't appear to be a thing. 

I think 49ers and Eagles are fighting for the 1 seed but ALSO that either team could win on the road. Cowboys flaming out in the playoffs seems likely. 

At this point, I think the biggest question is where will the 49ers-Eagles NFC Championship game get played.

Week 3 Blowouts

Let's start with something you don't see every day. Or ever. 

The Dolphins just put up the most points in the Super Bowl era. A 70 burger. 

They could have tied the 73-point record from 1940 if they had kicked a field goal, but they kneeled it out. Could have gone for 77 and the all-time-record. 

Among teams that have scored 70+, this was the 2nd best margin of victory. 

There were seven teams who accrued a point differential of -50 across 17 games last year. The Broncos did it in one game. 

Which is worse? Going 0-11 vs Patrick Mahomes or losing 20-70? Doesn't matter, the Broncos did both. 

Elsewhere, the Bills beat Washington 37-3 at Fedex Field and the Chiefs beat the Bears 41-10 at Taylor Swift Stadium.

- - -

You would think the most painful loss at the day would be the 70-20 in Miami, but nope, it was in Green Bay. 

The Saints entered the 4th quarter up 17-0 at Lambeau Field. 

But Derek Carr injured his throwing shoulder in the 3rd quarter. Here were the next four drives for the Saints: Punt. Punt. Punt. Punt. 

The Packers come alive in the 4th, scoring 18 on three possessions, doing the analytics thing of going for two when down 14 and it works. 

So now the Saints need Jameis to go down the field and get points in the final three minutes. And he does. Gets them down to the Green Bay 28. It's a 46-yard field goal attempt for rookie kicker Blake Grupe. Who picked a bad time to miss his first NFL kick. 

- - -

Also the Cowboys must be confused about how spreads work. The line was Cowboys -12. And they sort of nailed it exactly, losing to the Cardinals by exactly 12. 

- - -

Unrelated, but the two most famous NFL players are both on the Kansas City Chiefs and have won 2 Super Bowls. Things that in 2017 wouldn't have made any sense. 

- - -

Division Check-In

NFC North

Both the Lions and Packers are 2-1. Vikings and Bears are 0-3. Bears are a lost cause. Vikings seem to have dug too deep a hole. Like they'll be 2-4 after week 6, on track for a 6 or 7 win season. 

So uh, Lions at Packers is pretty big game. And DETROIT is favored at Lambeau. Wild stuff. 

NFC East

That sound you heard was the Cowboys bandwagon crashing into a cactus. Eagles remain class of the division. 

NFC West

49ers are the best team in the NFC. Seahawks look like a wild-card team. I still don't believe in the Rams as a playoff team, despite starting better than expected. 

NFC South

This will be a cluster all year. But Carr injury and yesterday's loss stings for New Orleans. Atlanta and Tampa will stay in the mix. 

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles.

(9 teams in the middle)

Cross Offs: Bears, Giants, Cardinals, Panthers, Vikings. 

AFC West

Normalcy is restored. Chiefs are good. Raiders and Broncos are bad. Chargers have signs of promise but won't actually win in the playoffs. Chiefs play Dolphins in Germany on November 5 and play Bills in Kansas City on December 10. 

AFC East

This is a two team division. The Jets and Patriots stink. The Bills and Dolphins are two of the top 3 AFC teams. They play this week in Buffalo and in the season playing in Miami in January, avoiding both heat and snow related games. The Dolphins have been better but are one Tua injury away from irrelevance. The most competitive division race (because both teams are good) right now. 

AFC North

Do the Steelers feel like a 2-1 team? They do not. 

The Browns have limited two teams to 3 points each. 

The Ravens will regret not beating the Colts. 

Somehow three teams are 2-1 and the team in 4th place is the Bengals. 

This is the most interesting division race involving all four teams. Can't cross off any of these teams. 

AFC South

This division sucks. They're all bad and don't deserve our attention, time or energy. 

Playoff Teams: Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs. 

(9 teams in the middle)

Cross Offs: Broncos, Jets, Patriots, Raiders.

The six teams that are 10-1 or better to win the Super Bowl, sorted by conference are:

Chiefs

Bills 

Dolphins

49ers 

Eagles 

Cowboys

My preseason Super Bowl pick was 49ers over Chiefs and I would like to cash out the value of that ticket before it goes downhill.

Week 2 Projections

This will be an every week feature. I'm still riding high on the new football season and it's fun to think about it. Let's take it conference by conference.

AFC

The only 2-0 teams are the Dolphins and the Ravens.

The Dolphins went on the road to beat the Chargers and the Patriots. They get Broncos at home and then Bills on the road. I do think they're good but I also doubt that Tua plays all 17 games. 

The Ravens beat the Texans at home and the Bengals on the road. They get Colts next week with possibly Gardener Minshew. I'm not convinced they're an AFC title contender, but they could for sure win the AFC North at 11-6 or something. 

The good/decent 1-1 teams are Chiefs, Bills, Jags, Titans. 

The 0-2 surprises are really just the Bengals...and Burrow aggravated his calf injury today. 

If I was picking 7 playoff teams right now...Dolphins, Bills, Chiefs, Ravens seem in strong position. I'd give the nod to Jags over Titans but not super confident. If we say Jags, there's room for two more of Titans, Browns, Steelers, Bengals, Chargers.

Cross Off: Jets, Patriots, Texans, Broncos, Raiders, Colts. Now if the Jets were able to get a new QB in the building maybe they could be a wild-card. 

NFC

Meanwhile there are 6 2-0 teams in the NFC. Cowboys, 49ers, Falcons, Bucs, Eagles, Commanders.

The class of the conference so far is 49ers, Cowboys, Eagles. Let's pencil all three as playoff teams. 

Cross Off: Giants, Bears, Panthers, Cardinals. I've seen enough. 

So that leaves four spots for: Bucs, Commanders, Falcons, Packers, Lions, Vikings, Rams, Seahawks, Saints. Still pretty crowded. 

Just for fun, let's see who owns the teams I'm penciling in to the playoffs:

Dolphins - Kirat

Bills - Matt

Chiefs - Kirat 

Ravens - Kirat

49ers - Dave

Cowboys - Dave

Eagles - Matt

hmmmmm

Week 1 Overreactions

A year ago, after week 1 I picked Chiefs and Eagles to be in the conference championship games. Let's get it right again.

NFC Championship will be Cowboys at 49ers. 

AFC Championship will be ... Jaguars at Dolphins? No that can't be right. I'd still lean towards Bengals/Chiefs this year, but I don't really think the Chiefs are going to have a great season...so could be a Bills or Bengals or Jaguars random breakthrough year. Too early to say on the AFC side.