Week 15 Playoff Picture

There are 5 teams with a point differential above 100+. And the defending champions are not one of them. 

If you sort by winning percentage instead, here are the top teams:

So the Cowboys are frauds who can't beat good teams or win on the road. 

Look at the Eagles and Lions point differential. Red flag. Not to mention the Lions playoff history doesn't inspire confidence.

So the actual good teams are:

49ers

Ravens

Dolphins

Bills

Except the Bills are 9th in the AFC. So they're essentially a top-5 team in the NFL but they have work to do to make the playoffs. 

Here's the live look at Super Bowl odds:

So if you believe them, we're headed for a rematch of Super Bowl 47, the Blackout Bowl, featuring 49ers and Ravens.

- - -

There's only 3 weeks left in the regular season. Which means only two more times after today to be thinking about cross-offs and hopefuls. So let's get into it.

AFC

Actually eliminated: Patriots, Jets, Titans

Cross-Offs: Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Steelers

Playoff Teams: Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, AFC South Winner

The next most likely playoff team according to the NYTimes is the Browns, who are on their 4th QB of the year. And it's Joe Flacco. Real football analysis is really hard. So I tend to focus on the quarterback first and foremost and I tend to be right more than I'm wrong on my NFL predictions. So to see this Browns team winning despite the QB room, it shows that sometimes you have to consider more than one position. 

NYT gives the Bills a 71% chance to make the playoffs, which is good, but not as high as you would think for a team that might be the scariest in the league. 

So beyond Ravens/Dolphins/Chiefs, there are 4 AFC spots up for grabs for 6 teams. Here they are in order of NYT percentages:

Browns. Jaguars. Bills. Texans. Colts. Bengals. 

Looking at the schedule, it still looks like Jaguars division to lose. 

Okay, so I just did a quick ESPN Playoff Machine just to see. I see the Broncos winning out over Patriots, Chargers, Raiders. If that happens, the Bills would have to beat the Dolphins, 2-1 does not get Bills in over Broncos. 

So if I have the Broncos lose their last game to the Raiders, and Bills lose to Dolphins, then the Colts grab the 7th seed. 

But then you let the Bills win out and all of a sudden they're the 4th seed and Miami is a wild-card team. 

Then I switched the Ravens losing to the Dolphins in week 17, going along with Ravens losing to the 49ers next week. 

That's all it took to get this:

Chiefs get the bye and Ravens are a wild-card. The work for the Ravens is not done yet.

For now, I'd say yes to Browns, Jags, Bills. Quiet yes to Texans assuming they get Stroud back. Bengals would not surprise me at all.

- - -

NFC

Actually eliminated: Panthers, Cardinals, Commanders

Cross-Offs: Bears, Giants, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks

Playoff Teams: 49ers, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Bucs, Rams

1 spot left for Vikings, Saints

Vikings schedule is harder. So Saints and Bucs make the playoffs? Wild.