I ended up making lots of bets. 17 in the end. Let's break it down.
1st Wave
I had marked some games all week. As soon as I got to Vegas, I was ready to make these:
-110 Falcons -2
-110 Chiefs -6
-139 Cardinals +7.5
-105 Eagles +3
-117 Stroud over 269 passing yards
+158 Dolphins/Bucs/Chiefs to win
The Cardinals line was either 5.5 or 6.5, so I paid a little extra vig to slide that number up to 7.5. I didn't think the Steelers could win by more than a touchdown.
2nd Wave
I sat around watching Georgia/Alabama and trying to research if I should bet anything on the Michigan/Iowa or the Florida State game. The two bets I was going to make: Under 30 in Michigan/Iowa and Florida State -2.5. I talked myself out of the first one because I didn't think I knew enough, and the 2nd one I went as far as hitting confirm bet...but it told me the line shifted to FSU -3.5. I took that as a sign that I shouldn't do it. Both would have won.
But I added some more NFL action. Four $10 parlay bets.
+230 Dolphins win, Tyreek TD, Tyreek 100 yards
+225 Purdy 2+ pass TDs, Aiyuk TD
+490 Kyler TD, Frymouth over 34 receiving yards
+1100 Chiefs -6, Over 43, Rice TD, Over 43 Rice yards, 2+ Mahomes pass TDs
The Kyler/Frymouth was one that I found on Twitter and both seemed reasonable. And then I wanted something fun to watch for in the Chiefs game so I did the last one.
3rd Wave
Then I went to talk bets with Aunt Paula. We both liked the Colts so talking to her confirmed that one for me. We talked about how we liked the Texans offense this year, so she talked me into that one. Instead of taking them at -3, I moved it to -2.5. I never pay attention to unders, but Paula brought up a few over/unders and I thought that Cards/Steelers would be a 16-10 game so under 41 sounded good. And then we started talking about Flacco, and I was like, you know I gotta bet against Flacco. The Rams line was -3.5 and I actually bumped it up to -6.5.
-133 Texans -2.5
-110 Colts PK
-110 Under 41 in Cardinals/Steelers
+114 Rams -6.5
+232 Steelers, Rams, Texans to win
+2972 Falcons, Texans, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Bucs, Rams, Chiefs to win
She liked the Steelers quite a bit to win. I knew I already had Cardinals +7.5. And I kinda thought Pittsburgh was going to win by 3...so I thought either as a hedge or perhaps a middle, that I could do the Steelers moneyline in a parlay with Rams and Texans.
And then just for fun, the very last bet of Saturday night, I put the 8 teams that I felt the best about winning together. $20 bet to win $594, collect $614.
- - -
Okay, so I show up at the sportsbook, 10am Vegas time.
Early Games
I write all my bets for the early games, ignoring the longshots.
So I had a paper with:
Falcons -2
Colts PK
Cardinals +7.5
Stroud 269 pass yards
Cards/Steelers under
Texans -2.5
I'm watching and things are going pretty well. Stroud has 149 passing yards in the 1st quarter. Cardinals are winning but it's still low scoring. Texans are winning big. Falcons were actually up 2, right on the number, and the Colts were trailing by 7, but still in it. So at halftime, I think I was on pace for 4-1-1.
And then my +230 Dolphins bet comes through. Tyreek has his yards and TD and the Dolphins are up 20. So I go ahead and write that one on my paper.
And then there are moments where things turn for the worse.
Stroud gets to 260 pass yards and then gets hurt. Davis Mills is in at QB.
Titans who were down 6, score a TD with 5 minutes left.
The Broncos are driving down the field to win.
The Jets keep getting the ball back down only 5.
Things are dicey.
And then Stroud comes back in and throws a 14-yard pass. Cashing my over.
The Titans miss the XP and we're going to overtime.
The Broncos throw an interception and they lose by 5. Cashing my Texans bet.
The Falcons defense hangs on. Cashes.
The Colts go on to win in OT. Cash.
And then the Cardinals win but don't go over. Double cash.
I look down at my paper from the early game. 7 bets. 7 winners.
Unbelievable. I'm sending money bag emojis to my wife. By my rough calculations those 7 bets have already won my entire budget back. Any wins from here on out are pure profit.
And then I check on the longshots.
So the Steelers moneyline bet is dead. And the Kyler/Frymouth bet didn't hit. So I'm really 7-2 at this point. And then I look at my ridiculous 8-leg parlay. Falcons, Colts, Texans, Chargers, Dolphins all won. The $600 bet only needs Bucs, Rams and Chiefs to win. Ummmm...
Late Games
Here's what I write down for the late games.
Eagles +3
Rams -6.5
Purdy 2tds, Aiuyk td
Bucs/Rams/Chiefs (remaining on the 8-leg)
Bucs/Chiefs (remaining on the 3-leg)
I mean, I'm watching all of them, but I'm really watching the Bucs and Rams. If they can win, I'm a Chiefs win away from collecting $1000 today.
The Eagles bet goes south in the 2nd quarter, but the Purdy bet hits. That one was +225 so that's all good with me.
And long story short, the Rams cover the -6.5 and the Bucs beat the Panthers too.
So in the late window: 2 winners, 1 loser, but the moneyline parlays are still alive.
I'm 9-3. I've got two Chiefs bets yet to come. But most importantly, I'm a Chiefs win away from cashing both of these:
I've never been in this situation. I make the call to hedge.
4th Wave
The Packers are a +200 moneyline. I still had $40 cash in my pocket. I figure if I cash those two tickets above, I won't sweat a $40 loss. But if the Packers win and ruin both tickets, then I'll at least collect $120 and profit $80.
Sunday Night Football
I've had the best gambling day ever at this point. 9-3 including two bets over +200.
And now I get to watch my team. They're a 6-point favorite but all I need them to do is win and I'll be collecting an additional $717.
- - -
Everything to this point has been really fun to type out.
Woof.
The first half was ugly. The Chiefs score a td in the 3rd quarter but can't get the two-point conversion and remain trailing by 2, 12-14. It's a really awful number to be trailing by, as any Packers TD makes it a two-possession game. Packers make it 21-12 by converting a ridiculous 4th down deep pass. Chiefs answer back 19-21. With 6 minutes left, GB gets a field goal. They're up 24-19. Chiefs have the ball. They can drive down the field and score with little time left.
I'm shouting to run the ball, get some yards, bleed some clock.
Pass.
Pass.
Pass. Intercepted.
That's the ball game.
There was plenty of game to play out, but that was it.
Chiefs lose. My two Chiefs bets lose. And it ruins both parlay tickets. No $717 to collect. This game brought me to 9-7.
Except that I did hedge.
So I'm actually 10-7.
I collected $120 at the Bellagio.
I collected $367 at Paris.
So that's $487 in my pocket after betting $360. A sportsbook profit of $127 on a $360 budget.
If the Chiefs had pulled it out, I would have collected $0 at Bellagio but $1084 at Paris. For a profit of $724 on a $360 budget. Would have tripled my stack.
- - -
Of course, there's the alternate scenario where I didn't hedge. I would have been 9-7. Takeaway that last $120 win and my profit would have only been $7 for going 9-7.
- - -
What can you say? It was my own Super Bowl Champion team that ruined a $1000 day. What could have been. But in the end, it's hard to come out even a little ahead. So to come out over $100 ahead betting $10 and $20 at a time, a 35% profit, that's pretty great.
And the only reason I was in the position to make the hedge, was that those first 7 legs came through. I lost $60 on those two big moneyline tickets, but the hedge profited $80. So all in all, I still made money on those three tickets combined. If the Colts hadn't won in OT (or any of the other first seven) I couldn't have hedged and it would have been a break even day.
If you go back and look, I was 3-3 in the first wave.
I was 2-2 on the 2nd wave going for longshots.
Ignoring the big parlay for a second, I went 4-1 in the third wave after talking to Paula.
And then the big parlay + the hedge, was how I made all my profit. So the third wave is really where I made my money.
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