Week 13 Clusterfuck

Let's start with the Jags. Entering the 4th quarter, they had the ball, up 7, going against Jake Browning and the Bengals. Hold on for 15 minutes to win the game and they'd be sitting in the #1 seed in the AFC and control their destiny. ESPN's model gives them an 80% chance to win at this point. 

What happens? Bengals get a stop. They score a TD. Jags are driving with a tie game and with less than 6 minutes to play, the franchise QB gets his ankle crushed by his own lineman. The Jags miss a 48-yard field goal at home. And then the Bengals make a 54-yarder and a 48-yarder in OT to win. 

So the Jags lose the game. They don't get to sit in the top spot. And now Lawrence is going to miss time. That's the margin for error in the NFL. Everything can go to shit in one play. 

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Meanwhile the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl (49ers) is not the team with the best record (Eagles). SF is clearly the best team right now and it doesn't seem particularly close. And yet, they're only good when all their players are healthy. So in light of how many injuries we've seen around the league this year, to the 49ers this year, and to Purdy last year in the playoffs, I wouldn't exactly say that it's a lock for SF to stay healthy through February. 

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And yes the Chiefs blew it on Sunday night. Their next game is hosting the Bills who are always scary. But after that, its the Patriots, Raiders, Bengals without Burrow, and Chargers who will be eliminated. So 12-5 is in play even with a loss to the Bills this week. But uh, if you want the #1 seed, I recommend winning out, getting to 13-4. 

The playoff picture is a mess. I'm skipping cross-offs until next week. Hopefully this week will help sort things out.