Time to dust off the USMNT gear

I mean I don't have any gear, but still.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copa_Am%C3%A9rica_Centenario#Group_stage

This Centennial edition of the Copa is the first outside of South America. And it's the US! No pressure guys, but the Chile hosted the last one and won it.

US games in the group stage:

June 3
June 7
June 11

USMNT wallpaper

Over the last week the USMNT crest has grown on me. At first I hated it. I've come to accept it's not terrible. Though I thought it would look better in a one-color version. So I made this, gave it a little texture. Done.

Until 2018...

Four years ago, this was how it ended. 

Yesterday Belgium dominated the match. Fifa's stats show US had possession 52-48, but for scoring attempts Belgium had 38. US only 14.

Tim Howard had a record 16 saves. The Belgian goalie, 4.

Belgium had chance after chance, in great space, and couldn't get it by Howard. Honestly, it seemed that most of them were not the best of finishes, mostly going right at Howard. There were a couple that Howard got just an inch of boot on, enough to redirect it. Moving forward it is worrisome how much our team was consistently outplayed and had to rely on superb goalkeeping.

After all that, right at the end of normal time, Wondolowski had a point blank chance at an open net and pushed it over. It happens.

And then in Extra Time, Belgium had two quick goals and it was all over. Might as well put in Julian Green, the 19-year-old who was often cited as someone who should have been left off the roster in favor of Donovan. Two minutes in, his first touch finds the back of the net.

And suddenly, after the game was all over, the US side unleashes their best attack yet. Ten minutes of pressure and excitement. Jones had a chance in front of the net and pushed it wide. Dempsey was on the receiving end of a brilliant set piece and should have, could have, sent the game to penalties.

In the end, Belgium got the win they deserved. But the last gasp of the Americans showed promise for the future.

I've been a fan of the World Cup since 1998. 2010 was really the first time that I got into the US team. (I really blew it in 2002) But now I'm in.

In July 2015, the USA will play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. (The US have won this 5 times, most recently in 2013.)

In June 2016, the USA will play in a special 100th anniversary (of CONMEBOL) tournament called the Copa Americao Centenario, hosted in the US, featuring the best teams from North America and South America.

In June 2017, there is the Fifa Confederations Cup. This is an 8-team tournament held a year prior to the World Cup, in the World Cup's location. This features the current champions of the 6 regions, the reigning World Cup holder, and the host nation. (For the record, in 2013 Spain was both the reigning World Cup holder (2010) and the champion of Europe (Euro 2012). As the runner-up of Euro 2012, Italy represented the European spot.) The CONCACAF spot is determined by a play-off game between the winners of the 2013 and 2015 Gold Cup. Since the USA won the 2013 contest, winning the 2015 Gold Cup would secure their spot in the Confederations Cup. (Also for the record, something I knew nothing about in the lead-up to the 2010 World Cup, the US actually finished second at the 2009 Confederations Cup and had a 2-0 lead at half-time over Brazil, before losing 2-3. They beat Spain 2-0 in 2009, in the middle of Spain's run of three consecutive major trophies (Euro 2008, World Cup 2010, Euro 2012).

And then of course in June 2018, the US will have another shot at the World Cup. Which is really the only trophy that matters for international teams. The US team will likely look much different and may not be prepared yet for a deep run. But based on recent success of advancing out of the group stages, I suspect that a deep run will be coming in the next 20 years. Perhaps 2022, perhaps 2026 when the US could be a potential host nation. It may not be coming soon, but I believe it is coming.

USA advance to the Knockout Round

in consecutive World Cups for the first time ever.

We had a World Cup party where about 20 people gathered to watch the US get zero shots on goal. But I just realized...what if the games had been in reverse order.

After the first game this would have been the table:

Germany 3 gd+1
Portugal 3 gd+1
Ghana 0  gd-1
USA 0 gd-1

Our hopes would have been slim. A loss to Portugal would have eliminated us. That early Portugal goal would have been a dagger. And then we would have been ecstatic to take the lead (as we were on Sunday) and then heartbroken with the final goal.

Germany 4 gd+1
Portugal 4 gd+1
Ghana 1 gd-1
USA 1 gd-1

So for our final game, here's what we would have needed. Beat Ghana AND require that either Germany or Portugal win AND make up the goal differential.

In the first minute, Dempsey scores. USA looks good. Then we see that Germany is pulling away from Portugal. By halftime, it's clear: just hold on to the win and we're through. And then Ghana ties it in the 85th minute. Those motherfuckers. The ensuing Brooks goal would have been the biggest highlight in U.S. soccer history. It would have been incredible.

And really, all of that happened. Just not in that order. So yeah, we're through and it's awesome.

Spain. Italy. England. Portugal. All of them are at home.
The United States lives to play another day alongside Brazil, Germany and Argentina.

In 2010 we had a better result than Italy, and the same as England and Portugal. So by advancing in 2014, the USA has outperformed Italy, England and Portugal over the last two World Cups combined. These are countries where soccer is everything. That feels pretty nice.

USA scenarios, updated

with USA WIN
USA 6
Germany 4
Ghana 1
Portugal 0

with USA DRAW
Germany 4
USA 4
Ghana 1
Portugal 1

with USA LOSS
Germany 4
USA 3
Portugal 3
Ghana 1

A win puts the USA through (and not a bad shot of finishing first).

Even a draw tomorrow, sets up the USA well. Germany and USA could settle on a draw to push them both through. If the USA draw tomorrow and then lose by 1 to Germany, Ghana would need to beat Portugal by 2, or Portugal would need to win by 5 to knock out the USA.

A loss means they need a draw or better vs Germany.

Which is expected. I just looked at the last three World Cups. There have been many teams to advance with 4 points, none with 3.

- - -

Also, for the first time I just looked at Group H to see the USA's potential opponent in the the round of 16. Belgium is worst case scenario. Could be South Korea, Russia or Algeria. None of those are particularly scary.

USA scenarios

Germany plays Ghana Saturday. I will assume Germany wins. Here are the three tables following USA-Portugal on Sunday.

with USA WIN
Germany 6
USA 6
Ghana 0
Portugal 0

with USA DRAW
Germany 6
USA 4
Ghana 0
Portugal 1

with USA LOSS
Germany 6
USA 3
Portugal 3
Ghana 0

A win clinches a berth in the knockout round.
A draw doesn't clinch, but is pretty close because USA has a +5 goal differential over Portugal.

A loss leaves work to do, hoping to best Portugal's fate against Ghana.

In short, win or draw vs Portugal and we're sitting pretty.

Way too premature and unrealistic guide to the U.S. advancing

I mean, the US will probably finish the bottom of the table. But still...

With Germany holding at 3-0 lead at halftime and one of Portugal's key defenders being sent off (and therefore will miss the game against the U.S.) here's an optimistic way this could shake out.

Germany. They will get the 3 points against Portugal. They will likely get all 3 against Ghana next.

They're in. That leaves one extra spot.

Let's say the US and Ghana draw today. 1 point each.

Then let's say the US beat the Pepe-less Portugal in the jungle.

The table looks like this heading into the last game:

Germany 6
US 4
Ghana 1
Portugal 0

At that point all the US would need is a draw against Germany, or even it a loss to minimize the damage and advance over Ghana on goal differential, assuming they can earn 3 against Portugal.

Okay...so that requires a win over Portugal... what if...

the US draws instead with both Ghana and Portugal...

The table looks like this heading into the last game:

Germany 6
US 2
Ghana 1
Portugal 1

If Ghana and Portugal draw, it's the same situation for the US. Draw and you're in. Otherwise just minimize the goal differential.

It's totally possible. Both of these scenarios are based upon a draw vs Ghana today. Win vs Ghana and they're sitting prettier. Lose against Ghana and then a win against Portugal is necessary. Here's that table:

Germany 6
US 3
Ghana 3
Portugal 0

At that point, it still doesn't look good. Germany wouldn't even be clinched so they would come out with full intensity.

Basically, it all comes down to today. Draw Ghana and you're okay. Win is great. Lose, means you're looking at 2018.

BREAKING: U.S. finishes only one round behind Brazil

Until 2014...

Harumph. That sucked. But Ghana deserved it. They scored 2 goals in open play--the U.S. only managed a penalty that could have gone either way.

It would be easy to be down right now. But I'm ever the optimist...

U.S. Soccer at the 2010 World Cup:
Better than France. Better than Italy.

U.S. World Cup History

The 2010 World Cup is the 19th World Cup.

Of the previous 18, the United States did not qualify for 10. (Of the 8 they did qualify for, one was as a host.)

Of the 8 World Cups the U.S. has played in, 5 times they failed to get past the group stage (2006, 1998, 1990, 1934, and even in 1950, despite the famous upset over England).

That means that only 3 previous times have the U.S. reached the Knockout Round.

1930

The 1930 Cup was the first one. It was, naturally, hosted in Uruguay. Only 13 countries showed up. Mostly from the Americas. Teams were taking boats to get there. I mean, does this really count as a World Cup? In the final, they couldn't agree on which ball to use, this one or this one.

The U.S. did beat Belgium and Paraguay, the two teams in their group. They advanced to a 4-team knockout round where they lost to Argentina 6-1. They are credited as the 3rd place team based on record, since there was not a 3rd place game.

I mean, it says "U.S. third place" but they beat Belgium and Paraguay and then got blown out in their first game in the knockout round. Whopee.

1994

Today there are 32 teams, and 16 advance to the knockout round. In 1994, there were 24 teams, and still 16 advanced. Again, advancing here is not what it is today. Particularly because the U.S. finished 3rd in their group of 4 teams, and got help from a Columbian own goal that resulted in a fatality.

But hey, this was the first time they had advanced since 1930. Once again, the U.S. was eliminated in their first knockout round game by a South American powerhouse, a 1-0 loss to Brazil.

2002

So if you're keeping score at home, prior to 2002, the U.S. was 0-2 in the Knockout Round.

The U.S. was put in a group with Portugal, Poland and host Korea. And they lost to Poland. But they drew with Korea, and together with a shocking upset of Portgual (amazing video includes a Donovan 8-years younger) the U.S. advanced to play Mexico.

I was into the World Cup in 1998, but found it hard to follow in 2002. Because the games were played at 2 and 4:30 AM! That's what you get for hosting it in Asia. Especially before the Internet.

So the U.S. faced Mexico in the knockout round. And like that the U.S. won their first game past the group stage.

And then they lost 1-0 to Germany, who would go on to lose in the Finals.

So there you have it. U.S. is 1-3 in the Knockout Round. Even though technically 1930 says third place, I consider the 2002 the best result since they actually won a knockout game.

- - -

I think the 2010 group performance is the best group performance for the Americans ever. Only their second time they've won a group, and I think it's against better competition than the 1930 affair.

The question is can the U.S. better their 2002 performance of winning one knockout game?

U.S. Knockout Record vs Continent
South America 0-2
Europe 0-1
North America 1-0
Africa ?

June 23, 2010: US Wins Group for first time in Eighty Years

HOLY CRAP: U.S. Wins Group C

And here I thought the U.S.-Slovenia game was the best soccer game I'd ever seen.

After getting chance after chance. After having a clean goal wiped away by a ref in the 2nd consecutive game. After watching Slovenia let England score and put the pressure on us.

In extra time, literally 3 minutes away from going home in an outrage...Donovan is there to clean up the mess on the counter-attack and just like that, the U.S. wins the group, and England comes through as well.

What a series of three games. The perfect answer for any American who thinks the World Cup is boring.

world cup scenarios for usa to advance (post-england)

The England game has been final for a good fifteen minutes and I still haven't found an answer. So I got out the graph paper myself.

USA:
Win and in
Loss and out

Okay but what about a tie:

Draw
If England wins, USA is out
If Slovenia wins, USA is in
If Eng-Slv draw, goes to goal differential, where US has a 3-1 advantage on England.

So we're rooting for Slovenia. If they can win or get a draw of 0-0, or 1-1, all we need to do is draw vs. Algeria. Of course it's a lot easier to just focus on WIN and IN.