BS SB I: Championship Gear is in stock!

This is the ugliest shirt I've ever seen.

front

back

BS SB I: The Pick

Although ESPN is projecting this to be a 146-145 win for Mark, I don't think it's going to be that close. They've got Maroney getting 22 which I think is a reach. Plus's all of Stevo's players are on the road, while Mark has home matchups.

If I had to guess, I'd say this turns out to be roughly a 135-115 win for Mark. I'm picking Mark straight up but what about with the Las Vegas spread (Mark -17.5)?

All week I was thinking put your money on the favorite, but now...I'll put $20 on Stevo +17.5.

Road to BS SB I

The road to the BS Super Bowl is a long and winding one. Although, more long and winding for some. Here's a breakdown of how these teams were built:

Mark's Team

Stevo's Team

As you can see, these teams couldn't have built more differently. For this analysis, I'll focus on the starters and ignore the kickers and DST since they are mostly interchangeable.

For Mark's 7 skill positions, he drafted 5, traded for 1, and he is currently projected to start a flex running back he picked up today. Even if you look at his bench, Mark has *zero* difference-makers acquired via the waiver wire. (Yes he did claim Steve Smith 2.0 and turn him and Addai into Chris Johnson).

On the other hand, for Stevo's 7 skill positions, he only drafted 3, and one of them is Hightower, a late round pick that isn't a bust, but isn't exactly an every-week start. The strength of his team was built after the draft, trading for Ricky Williams and jumping on Sidney Rice and Vernon Davis.

Rice is a Tier 2 receiver, and Davis is the #1 TE in Fantasy. And they were sitting on the waiver wire. It's to Stevo's credit that he saw their potential, and it may have in fact helped that he was new to Fantasy this year. I wasn't about to go near Vernon Davis after being burned by him in previous years. But look at his numbers and when Stevo grabbed him--before week 5. He had two typical Vernon Davis weeks, one fluke week, and one decent week against the terrible Rams. To look at that and think he's a commodity on the rise...well that's why he's in the BS SB I.


Likewise I hadn't hardly noticed Rice. Look at his first four games: two terrible games against the best possible matchups. Then decent games, but you figure he's one of those guys that relies on touchdowns and they just wont come. And then he starts exploding with huge games, without getting the touchdowns. So there you go.

Going back to Marks' team, he first 5 draft picks are in his SB lineup. That's amazing. On the other hand, Stevo's first three picks aren't in his lineup.

- - -

Also, as I previously stated correlation does not equal causation, but it is very interesting to note that the teams with the first four draft slots, are the four playoff teams. In 07 when Mark and I made it the Super Bowl, we had the 8th and 10th slots. I think after looking at this more in-depth, that it's more of a coincidence. Mark was going to be good no matter where he was at. Stevo wasn't helped by the draft at all. So yeah.

BS SB I: Media Day #2

Continuing with Media Day...five good questions with Mark, who apparently lose his shift button.

Interview with Burnsy Sucks Cock

1. What was your draft day strategy?

my strategy, after i woke up at 5 AM to do the draft and learning i had the number one pick, was to take peterson, then grab the best QB and WR available. from there, i wanted to go for value, regardless of position. i also wanted to take the first TE, hoping to have an advantage at that position all season. i wanted to get stable players, only taking one gamble or two. i remember thinking the most about my WR pick at the end of the 2nd round. it came down to three guys. roddy white, reggie wayne, and steve smith (panthers). i was worried about matt ryan having a sophomore slump and negatively effecting white. i was worried about the coaching changes in indy and if i remember correctly, manning was coming off of surgery and was playing without marvin harrison. i thought wayne would be getting more attention from the defenses and would have a down year. turns out, i should have taken wayne and dominated throughout the season. i knew i was taking a gamble on brandon marshall. he had been hurt and demanding trades during the offseason, plus was suspended the first game, but i remembered him playing really well at times last year and thought he might benefit from garbage time. i also thought fred jackson would be a steal for the first few weeks. both of those paid off. however, anthony gonzalez never played.

2. Any mistakes or regrets this season?

my kickers always seemed to lose to my opponents kicker. i never felt like i got it right until i picked up bironas at the end. i still regret passing on wayne. and there are always start/sits that i wish i could go back and change. most of santonio holmes' good games were spent on my bench. i kept trying to get receivers i could just stick in my starting lineup and leave there to pair with brandon marshall, but kevin smith, steve smith (panthers), maclin, and forsett weren't enough to entice somebody to give me a top-5 receiver.

3. Any smack you want to talk about your chances of winning it all?

don't want to jinx it

4. If you don't win the SB, will this season be a failure?

yeah. my team is loaded. best team i've ever had. i should win. i have the best team. but you never know who's going to go nuts week-to-week. lets just say that if i lose, i'll be really disappointed. ever since i got chris johnson, i've felt like i've had the better team and that my opponent has to have his best week to beat me.

5. Anything else you want to get off your chest?

Swag is an idiot for trading a great running back who was getting better for a waiver wire guy who became the #1 WR early in the season. although addai turned out to be better than we all thought.

BS SB I: Media Day #1

Ah, Media Day. Where the hard-hitting press ask the tough questions. First up...Stevo.

Interview with Team Like A Boss

1. What was your draft day strategy?

I spent a lot of time researching the draft, mostly on espn.com because I have never done Fantasy before. I watch a lot of football, but I was far from an expert going into the draft. Looking back, I made a lot of poor picks. I guess I put too much stock in espn's draft order suggestions. I had the third pick in the draft, and I took Forte first(who has been a total dud). Espn seemed to push the idea of going RB, RB, WR, WR. So, I followed Forte with Brandon Jacobs (another dud), Roddy White and Wes Welker. Welker has been my most consistent player (since he came back from his injury) and I traded Jacobs and White. Tony Romo has been my best player as far as points but other than that, my draft was pretty poor. When I list my top five players, I only drafted two of them. I traded for Ricky Williams and I picked Sidney Rice and Vernon Davis up off Free Agency. I am in the Super Bowl thanks to my 15 acquisitions and 2 trades, not the draft.

2. Any mistakes or regrets this season?

I regret buying into the idea that the Chicago Bears were going to be good this year. They had a lot of potential, but having 4 Bears on my roster was a mistake (and starting them was a bigger mistake). I waited too long to stop starting Cutler, Forte, Knox and Hester. I should have recognized earlier that those players were not getting me anywhere. After week 7, I was 2-5 and in last place. It was at that point I traded for Ricky Williams, picked up Davis, Rice and Laurence Moroney and turned my team around. I made mistakes along the way, but I think I learned a lot and have won four in a row (and 6 of my last 7) going into the Super Bowl.

3. Any smack you want to talk about your chances of winning it all?

One thing I read, which I think applies to my team is: You dont have to be flashy to win. I dont have any superstar receivers or really explosive backs, but my team is very consistent. I have an excellent TE who leads the league in TDs, Welker is leading the league in receptions and Romo and Williams are both top ten at their position. Obviously Mark's team is amazing. He scored over 200 points last week, and that is intimidating. However, I still think my team can pull off an upset. I want that trophy!! All the haters out there, remember the old phrase, "Any Given Sunday". And Thursday, and Saturday and Monday! It's a crazy week in the NFL!!

4. If you don't win the SB, will this season be a failure?

If I dont win the Super Bowl this year has not been a failure. Not by a long shot. I never expected to be here in my first year, and its been a very exciting season. I really loved it and I cant wait for next year!

5. Anything else you want to get off your chest?

As you all know, I was very disappointed that two people chose to veto my trade with Adam. But I've beat that issue to death, any you are all sick of hearing about it, so I'll just let the numbers do the talking for me. Other than that, its been a lot of fun and I appreciate you all letting me join your league.

Last Time They Met

Last time these teams met was week 5: Forte and Rivers were on a bye, and Stevo had yet to trade Roddy White. Instead his 41 points were on the bench.


Chris Johnson put up 4 points back when the Titans were terrible. The Jets D put up 0. Somehow I don't think those two are going to combine for 4 again. Man that 41 points on the bench would have been nice.

I think Mark looked at his team after winning with a 109.5 and told them, "We can build on this!"

what if?

The subplot that no one's talking about!

Week 7: Mac beats Mark by 5.5 points. If Mark had started Maclin over Fred Jackson, Mark wins that game. Then Mark is the #1 seed with a 9-4 record. Burnsy is still at 8-5 and gets the #2 seed. Mac still owns the tiebreaker over Stevo, so Mac is #3, Stevo is #4.

So then Mac would have lost to Niraj, Stevo loses to Mark...

and we were that close to having a War Across the Shore rematch for the Super Bowl in week 15!

It didn't have to be that loss for Mark...if he had beaten me in week 13, then the same thing. One more win for Mark would have been great news for Niraj.

- - -

But that's out of Niraj's control...what about in week 13? If he rests his starters, Kirat makes the playoffs with a 8-5 record and gets the #3 seed where he loses to Mark. Niraj still owns the tie breaker over Stevo and me, so Niraj gets in, gets the #4 seed and beats Mac by 60.

Basically, one more loss by Niraj would have been great news for Niraj.

So now we've got an added wrinkle to the Hypothetical Bowl. Let's have me and Niraj set our best lineups, and see who could/would have won it all.

BS SB I: Tale of the Tape

stevo vs mark

record
8-6______9-5

points
1607.5______1811

regular season points rank
3rd________1st

draft slots
3rd______1st

winning streak
4 games______1 game

transactions
15 acq, 2 trades_______25 acq, 1 trade

head to head matchups
5-9_________9-5

qb rank
7th_______8th

top 2 rb ranks
7th and 13th___1st and 4th

top 2 wr ranks
5th and 12th_____4th and 16th

top 10 overall
romo (8th)___johnson (4th) and rivers (9th)

It's on: BS Super Bowl I

this performance deserves its own post

This was ridiculous. And you look at it, he left 9 points on the bench at QB, at 8.5 at TE. I suppose it helps when your #1 pick overall has a good game, but not as good as the RB you traded for, who wasn't as good as a WR that just set the all-time record for receptions in a game.

Talk about peaking at the right time. Mark gets to smack Burnsy in the face 13 times with a burrito and is the odds on favorite to win BS Super Bowl I.

p.s. check back tonight for a special post at the conclusion of MNF