fantasy update

Burnsy is on the cusp of his first fantasy title...or is he?

Let's check it out the standings with remaining players to break it down.

Burnsy 340: Brees, Manning, Bush, Addai, Henderson, Clark, Stover, Colts D
Stevo 333: Brees, Manning, Bush, Addai, Colston, Clark, Stover, Saints D
Swag 324: Brees, Manning, Henderson, Clark, Colts D
Me 322: Brees, Manning, Bush, Wayne, Colston, Shockey, Stover, Colts D
Swag Dad 322: Brees, Manning, Bush, Wayne, Garcon, Clark, Colts D
Harlan 321: Brees, Manning, Bush, Addai, Garcon, Stover, Clark, Saints D
Mark 314: Brees, Manning, Thomas, Addai, Garcon, Stover, Clark, Colts D

First off, Swag can't pass Niraj and everyone has Brees and Manning.

Burnsy 340: Bush, Addai, Henderson, Clark, Stover, Colts D
Stevo 333: Bush, Addai, Colston, Clark, Stover, Saints D
Me 322: Bush, Wayne, Colston, Shockey, Stover, Colts D
Swag Dad 322: Bush, Wayne, Garcon, Clark, Colts D
Harlan 321: Bush, Addai, Garcon, Stover, Clark, Saints D
Mark 314: Thomas, Addai, Garcon, Stover, Clark, Colts D

I'll start with Mark. Comparing to Stevo, he's got Thomas/Garcon/Colts D vs Bush/Colston/Saints D and he has to overcome a 19 point deficit. And compared to Burnsy, he's got Thomas/Garcon vs Bush/Henderson and a 26 point deficit. I don't see it happening.

Harlan compared to Stevo has Garcon vs Colston and a 12 point deficit. Could happen but unlikely.

Swag Dad and Me are tied. He has Garcon and Clark, I've got Colston, Shockey and Stover. Toss up. We're both rooting for Wayne to go nuts and Addai not to do anything.

And at the top, Stevo's got Colston and Saints D vs Burnsy's Henderson and Colts D with Niraj up 7.

I think Burnsy and Stevo have the edge, but myself or Swag Dad could win.

- - -

Because this is my blog, here's my breakdown vs the top 3.

vs Niraj (18 point deficit)
Wayne, Colston, Shockey vs Addai, Henderson, Clark
I need the Colts scores to go to Wayne and the Saints scores to go to Colston. Possible but not favorable odds.

vs Stevo (11 point deficit)
Wayne, Shockey, Colts D vs Addai, Clark, Saints D
Again rooting for Wayne and against Addai and Clark.

vs Swag Dad (tied)
Colston, Shockey, Stover, vs Garcon, Clark.
Fuck you Clark!

Of course to win the title, I have to win all three of these matchups, not just one of them.

So I need points from Colston, Shockey, Wayne, and Colts D.

Rooting against Addai, Clark, Henderson and Saints D.

Fair enough.

draft redo

I didn't draft very well. With the hindsight of the season totals, here's the best team I could have come up with. Since I had the 9th pick, AD and MJD were already off the board.

1. A. Johnson, WR

2. C. Johnson, RB

3. B. Marshall, WR

4. M. Schaub, QB

5. D. Jackson, WR

6. Ray Rice, RB

7. B. Favre, QB

8. Eagles D

9. Kaeding, K

10. Akers, K

11. Packers D*

12. C. Benson, RB

13. B. Celek, TE*

14. V. Davis, TE*

15. R. Williams, RB*

16. M. Austin, WR*

*these players went undrafted

Some of these players got hot later in the year, but I still think with this roster you would go 15-0. Here's how it looks, with positional rankings in parenthesis:

QB Schuab (4th)
RB C. Johnson (1st)
RB R. Rice (4th)
WR A. Johnson (1st)
WR M. Austin (3rd)
Flex B. Marshall (4th)
TE Davis (2nd)
D Eagles (1st)
K Akers (1st)

Bench:
Favre (8th)
R. Williams (6th)
C. Benson (12th)
D. Jackson (8th)
Celek (5th)
Packers (2nd)
Kaeding (2nd)

- - -

Some observations:

Even with knowing all the answers, it's not possible to build the perfect lineup because some of the best were drafted before I even had my first pick, and to get the elite RB/WR, you can't get a top QB.

On the other hand, of the 9 starting slots, 4 of the best positions could have been had with undrafted players. Plus, the kicker really doesn't matter that much and I grabbed the #3 kicker off the waiver wire early in the season.

So since you can fill 5 positions well from the waiver wire, you have 16 draft picks to nail a QB, RB, WR, and a flex. It sounds so simple.

Also note, that Mark had better running backs on his team, than the team I constructed with 20/20 hindsight. That's bananas.

Hypothetical Bowl Conclusions

As previously noted, getting the 4th playoff seed came down to tiebreakers. If I had gotten it, I would have beaten Mac in the first round and faced Mark in the Super Bowl. So hypothetically, what would have happened?

Week 15
Mark 138
Dave 111.5

Figures. So historically:

Construda Super Bowl I, 2007: lost in Super Bowl
Construda Super Bowl II, 2008: missed playoffs by 1 game, would have lost in Super Bowl
BS Super Bowl I, 2009: missed playoffs by tiebreaker, would have lost in Super Bowl

Conversely, for Mark:

Construda Super Bowl I, 2007: won Super Bowl
Construda Super Bowl II, 2008: dominated season, lost in playoffs
BS Super Bowl I, 2009: won Super Bowl

All three years that we've been doing a draft league, Mark has just dominated. And he would have three titles to show for it, if not for one abnormal week in 08.

- - -

But what about the subplot that no one's talking about?

All Niraj had to do was to lose one more game (he could have rested his starters in week 13), or have mark win more one game, even if I had forgotten to set my lineup in week 13 that would have been a mark win...any of those and Niraj is in the super bowl vs Mark. And how would that have turned out?

Week 15
Mark 138
Niraj 144.5

So there you go. This isn't as pipe dreamish as me wishing for another regular season win so that I could get to BS SB I. Burnsy needed another regular season loss. If he had done worse, he would have won it all. Or, if Mark had done better Mark would be a Super Bowl loser. Crazy.

- - -

But because that doesn't help me, I'm taking you deeper.

I may have finished with 111.5 but I left 109 on my bench.

My best lineup would have totaled 175 in week 15. So yes, my best lineup could have beaten Mark's week 15 starters. But what if I give Mark and Burnsy the same luxury?

Week 15 Best Possible Scores
Niraj 185.5
Dave 175
Mark 144

Interesting conclusions: Mark set his week 15 lineup the best. Even though I didn't like benching Rivers, it only cost him 6 and it was the only wrong call. I would have been better off with Flacco, Chambers, Stewart and Bears D. And Burnsy would have improved with Wells, Heap, Sims-Walker and Eagles D. But what's really interesting is that Mark's best possible score was less than Niraj's actual week 15 total.

grading my grading of the draft

Before the season started, I made some predictions:

Projected Illini Standings:
Dave
Mark
Kirat
Niraj
Savan

Actual Illini Standings:
Mark 8-5
Niraj 8-5
Kirat 7-6
Dave 7-6
Savan 5-8

I knew Mark would be good and Savan not so much. And I correctly predicted that Kirat is middle of the pack. I overestimated myself and underestimated Niraj. But could you blame me?

- - -

Projected Naperville Standings:
Boss
Bloopy
Swag
Harlan
Doyle

Actual Naperville Standings:
Doyle 8-5
Boss 7-6
Swag 6-7
Bloopy 5-8
Harlan 4-9

Similar story. I knew Boss would be good, and that Swag was middle of the road. The one I really missed was that I didn't like Team Doyle. I wasn't convinced that Warner would last the whole season, and I didn't realize Reggie Wayne was that elite.

If you go back and look at my comments, some of them are funny, some are right on.

fantasy 09 tiered analysis, part two

Here are the top QB's. Since you only start one, we don't have to down as far.


Tier 1:
Brees, Rodgers, Manning 337-312 points

Tier 2:
Favre, Brady, Schaub, Romo, Rivers 284.5-267

Tier 3:
Big Ben, Eli, Warner 242-233

Tier 4:
McNabb, Cutler, Cambell, Palmer 217.5-203

This sort of fits with what I guessed, after seeing that our two super bowl teams didn't have elite QB's. In fact they had the bottom of Tier 2. More on this after we look at WRs.


Tier 1:
Andre, Wayne, Fitz, Marshall, Welker, Moss, Austin 217.5-196 points (7 guys)

Tier 2:
Smith 2.0, D. Jackson, V. Jackson, White, Rice, Colston, Ward, Ochocinco, Holmes 178.5-161 (9 guys)

Tier 3:
Driver, Mason, Sims-Walker, Jennings, Harvey, Meachem, Boldin, Smith 1.0, C. Johnson 152-130.5 (9 guys)

Tier 4:
The next 30 or 40 guys who total around 100 points.

The slope between tier 3 and 4 is slippery, but I think that there are roughly 25 receivers that matter. It works out that we start around 25, considering the flex.

- - -

Our league starts 10 QBs. 8 are in the top two tiers.
Our league starts 25 (avg with flex) RBs. 4 are in the top two tiers.
Our league starts 25 (avg with flex) WRs. 16 are in the top two tiers.

Sort of wish I had this information 4 months ago! One thing to note is that even with .5 PPR, QBs still dominate the scoring ranks, then come RBs, then WRs. One implication is that you're better off starting a RB over WR at flex.

I went WR with my first pick thinking that with the PPR that WR were about to become irreplaceable. And my pick turned out to be the best receiver, but you could find 6 other guys that could replicate his value.

If we see that Mark dominated the points totals, how did he do it? Tier 2 at QB. A WR at each of the top three tiers. And two of the four RB in the top two tiers.

No one else can say they have the same thing.

So how did the best team draft?

RB, WR, QB, WR, TE, RB, RB, QB, WR, WR, WR, RB, WR, RB, DST, K

Of course, this is misleading. The best player in fantasy, relative to positions, is Chris Johnson, and Mark didn't draft him.

fantasy 09 analysis, ramblings, and personal revelations

Chris Johnson is coming in between me and Mark. Wait, that didn't come out right. Wait.

One of the downsides of Mark being across the sea, is that for the most part, for half of the year our relationship revolves around fantasy football. And right now I hate Mark. No, that's not quite right. I have intense jealousy, masking as hatred for Mark as a fantasy football owner. It's just that right now I can't think about Mark without thinking about fantasy, and that he traded for Chris Johnson.

This is one of those trades that every owner would love to make. Trade depth for studs; take multiple players that aren't much different than what's on the waiver wire, and get back game changers in exchange.

I tried to do a version of that trade this year. Except instead of trading depth for studs, I tried to do a buy low, sell high. I was trying to unload Braylon (or anyone) to get Matt Forte. I figured he would end up a top 8 rb and maybe I could get him since he was underperforming.

The funny thing is that Forte finished as the 13th best rb, but it didn't feel like it. In fact, let's go to the chart. Here are the top 25 backs, Stewart and Charles are tied at 25.

(click to read chart)

So people talk about top 10 running backs, or top 20, or whatever. But now that the season's over, it's easier to see these guys in groups:

(points through 14 weeks)

Tier 1:
Chris Johnson 311 pts

Tier 2:
MJD, Rice, Peterson 242-239

Tier 3:
Jones, Jackson, R. Williams, Addai, Gore, D. Williams 200-187

So there are the top 10 backs. As you can see, they are not interchangeable.

Tier 4: 9 guys from 174.5-139

Tier 5: 7 guys from 131-121

But basically we can focus on the first three tiers. These are the big RB playmakers, averaging double digits every week. In a 10-team league, you need at least one. But really, it's having one of the guys in Tier 1 or Tier 2 that makes you a playoff team.

This all comes back to Mark. He had the #1 pick and it panned out, so he was handed a Tier 2 guy on a silver platter. But then he traded for Chris Johnson and got him. Without giving up a stud in return. I can't believe it. I wasn't able to trade for Forte (a Tier 4 guy) and rightfully so. And Mark gets the guy with his own tier.

But I can't get mad at Mark, per se. I just can't believe it. By the way, the whole money part of everything seems so ancillary. Who gives a crap about the $10. This is tearing me and Mark apart. (sigh)

I'm going to do a similar tiered look at QB and receiver to see what can be learned.

Hypothetical Bowl

Seeding for the playoffs came down to tiebreakers. I was that close to grabbing the #4 spot and facing Mac in the playoffs.

For the record:

Construda Super Bowl I, 2007: lost in Super Bowl
Construda Super Bowl II, 2008: missed playoffs by 1 game, would have lost in Super Bowl

Here's how my team would have fared:

Week 14 lineup:
brady 11
charles 28.5
jacobs 10.5
boldin 4.582.5
andre 38.5
meachem 7
scaife 6
packers d 12
tynes 8
126

Carried by Andre Johnson I would have beat Mac 126-82.5. Of course I wouldn't have stood a chance if Mark had been the #1 seed, or even against Niraj.

But now I'm in the Hypothetical Super Bowl against Mark. (sigh)

- - -

Also, for what it's worth, my 3rd place scenario is playing out exactly as I supposed it could. Burnsy scores 145 in the first round, and would have beat two of the other playoff teams. Instead he's eliminated because Mark went crazy. So what is Burnsy's reward? Nothing. He could finish in 4th place, and owe $10 to Mac, the same guy he would have beat by 60.

this performance deserves its own post

This was ridiculous. And you look at it, he left 9 points on the bench at QB, at 8.5 at TE. I suppose it helps when your #1 pick overall has a good game, but not as good as the RB you traded for, who wasn't as good as a WR that just set the all-time record for receptions in a game.

Talk about peaking at the right time. Mark gets to smack Burnsy in the face 13 times with a burrito and is the odds on favorite to win BS Super Bowl I.

p.s. check back tonight for a special post at the conclusion of MNF

hypothetical bowl

Because I was eliminated, I never bothered to look at my lineup. But for hypothetical purposes, I want to see how my best lineup would have fared against Mac, if I had secured the #4 seed.

Week 14 lineup:
brady
charles
jacobs
boldin
andre
meachem
scaife
packers d
tynes

aaaaaaaah, tiebreakers

Can't believe I finished 1 game behind first place in the standings!
Can't believe I finished 1 game behind first place and didn't make the playoffs.

Started 0-4. Finished 7-2.

And I still don't think that might team was that good over the last 9 weeks. Which is why I'm not upset about this. But geez, who knew that I would finish with a playoff worthy record? If you look at the team that lost to Stevo in week 9, that team was terrible...and then I won the next 4 division games. Technically I finished 6th in the 10-team league, which isn't that good. But was so close to getting tied with the best record. Strange league. Also, for the second straight year, Mark has dominated the points. Geez. Start testing this guy. Steroids.

- - -

Also, how about those total points in Me vs. Mark, including our bench this week? We blew up! 449.5 between our rosters. For comparison, our rosters put up 350 in week 1, and Kirat/Niraj put up 315 this week.

my team through 12 weeks

As Mark commented, it appears to be too little too late for my team. But how did I start 0-4, and get to 6-6?

Here are my scores graphed vs my opponents.

At first glance it looks like my team had a fairly up and down season. And it seems that perhaps it just comes down to matchups. Notice how close my last three wins were. In fact, except for week 6, every win I had was close.

Here is the same data graphed with linear trendlines:

What does tell us? Yes, I did improve on the season, but only by 1.15 points a game. My opponents did get progressively worse, by an average of negative 2.29 points a game. But the beginning was so bad that it took 10 weeks to catch up.

But is it really that complicated? Does it really come down to matchups? This is my weekly totals, sorted by score.


As you can see, I cracked the 100-point barrier 7 times. I won 6 of those. I lost all 5 that I didn't. So how did I go from 0-4 to 6-6? I started scoring over 100 a game. Of course, in week 3 when I scored 122.5 and lost, only one team outscored me. It was Kirat. And that's why he's got the inside track to the playoffs instead of me.

Actually, I don't feel bad about my playoff situation. Sure I would have liked to make it, but I don't feel as though my team has played that great, or that I would win any playoff games anyways. (Though I'll be sure to compare my hypothetical matchups, in case I had grabbed the #4 seed). I just didn't have it this year.

playoff picture

This will become more clear by Tuesday morning, but here's how I see things right now.

Mark will win and clinches a spot with 8 wins. Doyle is in based on two-game lead and head-to head records.

Kirat and I will win. That puts Kirat at 7, Niraj at 7, and me at 6. Edit: Boss will also be at 6.

So...

Kirat 7
Niraj 7
Dave 6
Boss 6

Kirat and Niraj play each other in week 13, putting that winner at 8 and in. But both Kirat and Niraj own the H2H tiebreaker over Boss, eliminating him anyways.

If two teams split their head-to-head, does it go by overall points next? If so, it would seem my only path would be to beat Mark, hope that Niraj beats Kirat, and that I can pass Kirat for overall points. It's a lot to ask.

At this point it seems that Mark, Mac, and Niraj are in. And it's me vs Kirat for the last slot. Did I miss something?

fantasy update: 2 weeks to go

Wild week. I'm on the road, so I'm blogging without my home-field advantage. It's a little rough but I'm playing through it.

The two biggest fantasy scorers of week 11 were in the same game, the game of the year. And they were both on waivers. The Lions got down 24-3, making Brady Quinn look like Joe Montana. Actually that's not true, his receivers were so wide open, Brady Quinn looked like a Jugs machine throwing the ball up and letting his receivers navigate the open field. But the Browns made a fatal mistake: You DO NOT challenge Matthew Stafford. He will destroy you. Except for those interceptions and that safety.

But the ending was spectacular. With over 30 yards to go, Stafford ran around and let the clock run out and threw it to the end zone for an interception. But wait, flag on the play and that means two of the best words: Untimed down. 1st and goal from the 1, no time left, and you're down 6.

Stafford to Pettigrew and it was tight window to win the game. Nice job Lions. You beat the Browns.

But back to the fantasy leaders, it's full of surprises: Ricky Williams, Eli Manning in November, Brett Fave in 2009, Terrell Owens. Wes Welker puts up 29.5 WITHOUT a touchdown. Snelling for 21.5, Forsett for 18, Bernard Scott for 17.5.

- - -

So in our league with only 2 games to go, we've got 3 teams at 7-4, 1 team at 6-5, and 4 teams at 5-6. (And two teams at 4-7, more on them later.)

Next week it will be easy to project scenarios. Right now I'm assuming the 3 teams at 7-4 will make it in. Kirat at 6-5 plays Harlan and Niraj, and controls his own destiny. But one defeat and he would get passed by just about anyone that wins their last 2 games, based on his weak points scored. There's really no way I can make the playoffs, but I'm pretty pleased that I've gone 5-2 over the last 7 weeks, although I'm surprised I'm still in 8th place.

- - -

At the other end, based on points scored and record, Matt has a stranglehold on last place. To be eligible not for last, he either needs to get to 6 wins, or get to 5 and hope that Harlan stays at 4. Basically he needs to win more than Harlan. Looking forward to next week, when I can construct win and you're in scenarios.

fantasy update

If the season ended today:


We'd have a rematch of the War Across the Shore, plus 3 Illini teams represented.

- - -

Here's the breakdown of the standings/records, with scoring rank in parens, draft position in brackets.

Doyle 7-3 (3) [2]
Burnsy 6-4 (1) [4]
Mark 6-4 (2) [1]
Kirat 6-4 (6) [6]
Savan 5-5 (4) [5]
Swag 5-5 (5) [8]
Boss 4-6 (7) [3]
Dave 4-6 (8) [9]
Matt 4-6 (10) [7]
Harlan 3-7 (9) [10]

Conclusions:
The schedule has even it out pretty well. Biggest schedule loser is Savan, only scored 20 points less than a 7-3 team, right now he's 5-5 and on the outside looking in. Biggest schedule winner is Kirat. He's in the bottom 5 of points scored and is tied for first in Illini and currently slotted in the playoffs.

And now, to make it perfectly clear if there was any doubt, I am a stat nerd. Here is a chart showing correlation between draft position and points scored.

Complete with linear trendline, and slope equation shown in the lower left. We see that there is a -20 slope. What does that mean? On average, in our league so far, for every draft slot deeper you are, each team is scoring 20 points less on the season, than the team before. With ten teams, that works out to an average of 200-point disparity between the team that got the first draft slot and the team that got the 10th.

- - -

But wait...correlation does not equal causation. This doesn't mean that the reason these teams are scoring the way they are is because of their draft slot. There a lot of factors at play here, including that Mark made an excellent trade for Chris Johnson, Burnsy nailed a bunch of sleepers late in the draft, etc. Another explanation would be that Matt and me just aren't any good, and we happened to be #7 and #9, bringing the average down.

But just for fun....it is interesting to compare the 1st round draft results with the above chart.

1 Adrian Peterson, Min RB Burnsy Sucks Cock
2 Michael Turner, Atl RB Doyle McPoyle
3 Matt Forte, Chi RB Team Like A Boss
4 DeAngelo Williams, Car RB Mark is a Vag
5 Steven Jackson, StL RB Team Vagnasty
6 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB Team Kid-Iron
7 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD RB Team Bloopy
8 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR CHI-Ville SwagaLICIOUS
9 Andre Johnson, Hou WR Sweaty Bratwursts
10 Drew Brees, NO QB Get Gully Harlan

The obvious disappointments have been Forte and Tomlinson. Plus, while Brees isn't a bust, he's currently 4th among QB's, not exactly warranting a first round pick. Those 3 picks might seem to explain the outliers on the slope chart.

how .5 ppr affects our league

Hopefully this isn't too hard to read. The middle, top layer is our league's top ten rb/wr. On the left is the top ten under ESPN standard scoring, and you can see those numbers peeking out on the right side as well.

(click to read)

Conclusions:

• Mojo does get a boost of 6 points relative to AD, but they're still 1 and 2 in both scoring systems.
• In standard leagues, there's only 1 WR in the top ten. Our league has 4.
• I feel like Wayne and Jones are quietly having top-6 seasons for MAC.

Here is the draft positioning relative to their current standings.

Peterson (1)
Jones-Drew (6)
C. Johnson (13)
Rice (64)
Wayne (22)
Jones (39)
Jackson (57)
A. Johnson (9)
Smith (undrafted)
Benson (116)

This sort of blows my mind. AD was slotted right, and then Jones-Drew was talked as top-5 back. And my Andre Johnson pick was solid. But this goes to show you that you can find value anywhere in the draft.

Burnsy with the steals of Rice and Jackson. Just imagine if he hadn't taken T.O in the third round.

fantasy storylines

Let's start with Mark's matchup...he loses by 5.5 and Fred Jackson got 0 at flex. A bad time to have Chris Johnson, Kevin Smith and Brandon Marshall all on a bye. Any one of them should get 6 in a given week. Of course, he could have started Maclin and gotten the win (5 for 53, 7.5 points).

Plus, his opponent traded away 14 points this week, by starting Roddy White instead of Ricky Williams, but still won.

Ricky Williams was one of four players on Boss' team that got 20+. In fact the only player that wasn't in double digits? His newly acquired Manningham (6). How about that Vernon Davis, 3 tds all in the second half with Alex Smith off the bench, for a 30.5 day. Welker and Maroney both score in London, and Kaeding puts up good numbers despite being banged up. The guy that let down Stevo? Cutler. Sucks to have your hometown QB blow your fantasy day, wasting such good performances.

On the other side, Burnsy starts Rodgers and Grant and both go off. V-Jax torches the Chiefs as expected, but Miles Austin gets another 34? I was supremely confident that Austin was a flash in the pan because of poor Chiefs' tackling. Wow. So Burnsy beats him by 16, and Stevo left 25 points on the bench with Romo. I know Cutler has been sorta good lately, but you're still starting Romo, right?

Harlan got 25 from Desean Jackson on Monday night, too bad Savan had the unstoppable combo of Palmer and Benson. Seriously, Palmer and Benson outscored Team Bloopy--but more on that later. Savan benched Steven Jackson, and it worked out for him.

Kirat's Peyton Manning pick looks pretty good right now. Kirat and Niraj are sitting at 5-2, tied for first. Last week, Matt set a new weekly low at 72.5. He told me he didn't think anyone could sink lower. He was sort of right. He got 61 this week, and rightfully deserves that Double Red Banner of Shame.

And then there's me. Tom Brady showed up, even across the pond. Jacobs got 9 more than Manningham. And my defense du jour worked out. I'm just glad that I wasn't closer going into Monday, or God forbid, up by 5 or so. I had Westbrook and Celek, who should be good for a solid 25 or so, right? And he had Akers. Westbrook gets a concussion, Celek gets shit, and Akers outscores them both by 8.5.

It wasn't the reason I lost, but it didn't help that Westbrook, Brown and A. Johnson all left with injuries. Of course, Boldin who was injured on my bench actually had a decent game.

Thanks a lot Bears, for letting Ocho Cinco look good (30.5). And Schuab to Daniels got Swag 20.5 points on one play, so that sucked.

Basically at this point, I'm trying to avoid buying the trophy. I'm one of 3 teams at 2-5, and Matt's alone at 3-4. So there's that.

fantasy preview: week 7

Last week Illini went 4-1 against Naperville. Only Savan lost to Swag.

Interestingly, if you would have relied on the projected point spreads, you would have been 3-2.
If you would have picked based on history, you would have gone 4-1.

Since it proved to be valuable, plus it's fun, here's a look at this week's matchups, analyzing how the teams have fared head-to-head each week.

In the Brats vs Swag history, 5 of the 6 have been close. Interestingly, in the stretch that I went 0-4, I would have won 3 games against Swag. In the last 2 games, where I've been 2-0, I would have lost both games.

3-3 Swag-Dave
4-2 Mark over Doyle (Mark would have won first four, Doyle the last two)
5-1 Niraj over Boss
4-2 Savan over Harlan
4-2 Kirat over Matt

Based on this week's matchups, Illini would have been 20-10 vs Naperville through 6 weeks. Last week I showed they were 16-9, and we went 4-1 in week 6. So after 2 weeks of calculation there is less variance in the numbers than I expected.

sweaty breakdown

One thing I miss about nfl.com's fantasy presentation, is the breakdown. It offers a truer sense of how teams are performing, a more complete picture than their actual record.

With that in mind, I wanted to see how I would have expected to do, week by week, based on the scoreboards but ignoring the schedule. If my winning chances are higher than 50%, I'll classify that as an expected win--vice versa for lower than 50%. This way I'll see what my record would be if you didn't have the schedule in front of you.

Week 1: My 89 points was 9th highest that week (out of 10). The breakdown for that week would be 1-8. So you could say that of the 9 possible opponents, my chances of winning would be 11%. Expected loss.

Week 2: 98 points. Winning chance: 22%. Expected loss.

Week 3: 122.5 points. Winning chance: 89%. Expected win.

Week 4: 84 points. Winning chance: 44%. Expected loss.

Week 5: 108.5 points. Winning chance: 67%. Expected win.

So there you have it. I could only expect to be 2-3 at this point. It's a shame that I lost in week 3 when there was only 1 possible matchup that would have resulted in defeat. But at least I won last week, when 3 out of 9 schedules would have had me lose that one.

fantasy preview: week 6

The fantasy projections and game lines are notably unreliable, particularly because many teams wait until Sunday to set their roster.


So what's a better way to preview the games?

Using the handy charts on the bottom of the preview panel, perhaps it's using a head-to-head breakdown of what would have happened if the teams matched up in week 6 had played each other in the previous 5 weeks. I'll put the current line in parens for reference.

Dave OVER Doyle 3-2 (Sweaty -56.5)
Kirat OVER Boss 3-2 (Kirat +31.5)
Niraj OVER Harlan 3-2 (Niraj -65.5)
Savan OVER Swag 3-2 (Savan -1)
Mark OVER Matt 4-1 (Mark -71.5)

There you have it. Illinois division is 16-9 vs. Naperville in hypothetical head-to-head matchups (based only this week's schedule. It would be different depending on who was playing who.) In fact, right now Illinois division has 13 wins, Naperville has 12. But most of those have been divisional games, so it's still a small sample size.

Also, week 6 is the first week in which every game is interdivsional. Can Illinois go 5-0?

fantasy confessions

Chocolate tastes sweeter. The air feels fresher. Water is more wet.

The world is a better place tonight. Sweaty Bratwursts are 1-4.

- - -

Illinois is 0-4 against 1-A teams.
Kansas City is 0-5 and broke my fucking heart after an incredible drive that ended with a 4th and 7 TD catch by D-Bowe in traffic with 20 seconds left, only to lose in overtime (after starting a posesssion at the 50 in OT). And yet they're still only 1 game back in the Burger Standings.

But yeah, my 2 football teams are 0-9. And my fantasy team sucks too. But not tonight.

- - -

I love Andre Johnson. Watch these clips and see what he did for me. That last play put him over 100 yards.

2 for yardage, 2 for milestone, 6 for TD and .5 for the catch. 10.5 on that play and I win by 6. He is the #1 draft pick in my heart. I would totally go gay for him.