fantasy update

If the season ended today:


We'd have a rematch of the War Across the Shore, plus 3 Illini teams represented.

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Here's the breakdown of the standings/records, with scoring rank in parens, draft position in brackets.

Doyle 7-3 (3) [2]
Burnsy 6-4 (1) [4]
Mark 6-4 (2) [1]
Kirat 6-4 (6) [6]
Savan 5-5 (4) [5]
Swag 5-5 (5) [8]
Boss 4-6 (7) [3]
Dave 4-6 (8) [9]
Matt 4-6 (10) [7]
Harlan 3-7 (9) [10]

Conclusions:
The schedule has even it out pretty well. Biggest schedule loser is Savan, only scored 20 points less than a 7-3 team, right now he's 5-5 and on the outside looking in. Biggest schedule winner is Kirat. He's in the bottom 5 of points scored and is tied for first in Illini and currently slotted in the playoffs.

And now, to make it perfectly clear if there was any doubt, I am a stat nerd. Here is a chart showing correlation between draft position and points scored.

Complete with linear trendline, and slope equation shown in the lower left. We see that there is a -20 slope. What does that mean? On average, in our league so far, for every draft slot deeper you are, each team is scoring 20 points less on the season, than the team before. With ten teams, that works out to an average of 200-point disparity between the team that got the first draft slot and the team that got the 10th.

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But wait...correlation does not equal causation. This doesn't mean that the reason these teams are scoring the way they are is because of their draft slot. There a lot of factors at play here, including that Mark made an excellent trade for Chris Johnson, Burnsy nailed a bunch of sleepers late in the draft, etc. Another explanation would be that Matt and me just aren't any good, and we happened to be #7 and #9, bringing the average down.

But just for fun....it is interesting to compare the 1st round draft results with the above chart.

1 Adrian Peterson, Min RB Burnsy Sucks Cock
2 Michael Turner, Atl RB Doyle McPoyle
3 Matt Forte, Chi RB Team Like A Boss
4 DeAngelo Williams, Car RB Mark is a Vag
5 Steven Jackson, StL RB Team Vagnasty
6 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac RB Team Kid-Iron
7 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD RB Team Bloopy
8 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR CHI-Ville SwagaLICIOUS
9 Andre Johnson, Hou WR Sweaty Bratwursts
10 Drew Brees, NO QB Get Gully Harlan

The obvious disappointments have been Forte and Tomlinson. Plus, while Brees isn't a bust, he's currently 4th among QB's, not exactly warranting a first round pick. Those 3 picks might seem to explain the outliers on the slope chart.