bye week anaylsis

Analysis of 2009 bye team performances:

Home Win: 8
Road Win: 2
Home Loss: 3
Road Loss: 5

Home teams after a bye: 8-3
Road teams after a bye: 2-5

I think this is too small of a sample size (as it doesn't support my theory as well as I thought it would!) and included at least two matchups of bye teams going head to head, as well as Dolphins getting a bye and then hosting the Saints, where they actually kept it closer than anyone thought.

I still believe that generally after a bye, teams chances of winning are a lot better. Usually the Chiefs lose after a bye (@ JAX this week) and I always feel like we play at least 2 teams coming off a bye. (Though not this year, see below.)

2009 games against teams coming off byes

You would think that since each team has 1 bye week, odds are that each each team would play someone who just had a bye week only once. Not the case.

Falcons: 4

Broncos: 3
Jaguars: 3
Ravens: 3
Titans: 3

Lions: 2
Saints: 2
Texans: 2

Bucs: 1
Chiefs: 1
Cowboys: 1
Dolphins: 1
49ers: 1
Giants: 1
Packers: 1
Rams: 1
Redskins: 1

15 Teams with Zero sorted by Division:

Patriots: 0
Jets: 0
Bills: 0

Bengals: 0
Steelers: 0
Browns: 0

Colts: 0

Chargers: 0
Raiders: 0

Eagles: 0

Vikings: 0
Bears: 0

Panthers: 0

Cardinals: 0
Seahawks: 0

Now you could say that it doesn't really matter if your opponent is coming off a bye, but if there is just a slight advantage, shouldn't that be distributed as evenly as possible. 15 teams don't have to play one. In the case of the Colts, they're the only team in their division that doesn't have to. Meanwhile, the Ravens have 3 games against recent-bye teams, while the rest of their division has 0.