Today's top story?
The Lions are 8-2 for the first time in the Super Bowl era. As a reminder, we've had 57 Super Bowls.
Let's zoom in on the 4th quarter. The Bears are up 9 and go on a 14-play scoring drive that eats up almost 9 minutes of clock. The Lions will only have 4:15 left.
But it was already a 9-point game. Kicking a field goal and making it a 12-point game, takes it from a two-possession game to a two-possession game. The difference it takes two touchdowns instead of a touchdown and field goal. But if you really wanted to win this game, that's not a meaningful difference.
At 26-14, I thought to myself, the Lions are going to win 28-26.
The Lions score in one minute. Then the Bears go run, run, incomplete. Detroit used two timeouts. The Bears ran 15 seconds off the clock. The Lions take over down 5 with 2:33 to play. Game over.
If the Chiefs win tomorrow, then the Lions will be tied for best record in the league.
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The Chargers have a +21 point differential. They're 4-6. That's not supposed to happen. Here's the standings for teams .500 to .400:
Take a peek at the point differential column on the right. If you've scored more points than you've given up at this point, it should translate to wins. The Chargers are the king of blowing close games.
There are all these teams who are dying to find a franchise QB, teams with good defenses like Browns and Jets who would kill to have someone like Herbert, and the Chargers are just wasting him.
FYI, The Bills are in a similar situation, currently $29M over the 2024 cap.
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Tommy DeVito now has more passing touchdowns (6) this season than Zach Wilson (5).
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Let's do some Cross-offs!
AFC
Cross-Offs: Patriots, Titans, Jets, Chargers Bengals, Raiders
Playoff Teams: Chiefs, Ravens, Jaguars, Dolphins
The Browns have the defense and the record but I'm not ready to count them as a playoff team given their QB room and their history. Losing Burrow took the Bengals from a Playoff Team to a Cross-Off just like that. Sucks for whoever bought them in Calcutta.
In the Hunt: Browns, Bills, Steelers, Texans, Colts, Broncos
These 5 are fighting for three spots. Bills, Texans and Browns are the best teams. Texans have 7th seed written all over them. Broncos winning SNF keeps their winning streak alive and keeps them from being a cross off.
NFC
Cross-Offs: Panthers, Cardinals, Bears, Giants, Commanders
Playoff Teams: Eagles, Lions, 49ers, Cowboys
The NFC is kinda dogshit. All these 4-6 teams that should be cross-offs but there are so many that I can't cross them all off.
In The Hunt: Vikings, Seahawks, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Rams, Packers
When it looked like Vikes would win SNF, I had them as a playoff team. The loss knocks them just to in the hunt. The Seahawks are sitting in a spot, but with their loss today I'm not 100% convinced they won't keep losing down the stretch.
Honestly, the #2 seed in the NFC is pretty tasty. The 7th seed is going to be terrible. So you get a home playoff game where you're a 7-point favorite, build some momentum, get a playoff win under your belt.
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Quick Calcutta Check-in:
Here are the teams sorted by Super Bowl odds, under 20-1:
Chiefs - Kirat
Eagles - Matt
49ers - Dave
Ravens - Kirat
Dolphins - Kirat
Cowboys - Dave
Lions - Mark
Jaguars - Dave
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