Week 4 Favorites

Let's take an updated look at the best teams in each conference. Starting in the AFC.

I was sitting in a sportsbook yesterday and saw this graphic:

So it's kinda funny right? Last week, the Dolphins were 3-0 and had just scored 70. So they had a 45% chance of going to the Super Bowl? But after one road game, they're down to 20%. And the Bills took all those odds from them. 

Look, I get it. The Bills were dominant this week, and beat the Dolphins so sure, they're ahead of them. But they also lost Tre White for the year. 

I came into the year thinking that the Chiefs might have a down year, and didn't think they were worth taking in Calcutta factoring in the price tag. But I think the Bills at 40% right now is just as artificial as the Dolphins at 45% last week. Prisoner of the moment. 

Here's the current Vegas odds:

So it's Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Dolphins and then a big drop to the Chargers. The Bengals are cooked this year, sorry. Same for Browns without Chubb. I would put the Jaguars above the Bengals, but they haven't looked good yet either. 

If you look at the top 4, we're saying the Chiefs and winner of the AFC East are the top two teams. So we could be headed toward another Bills vs Chiefs playoff game. I don't believe in the Ravens as a real playoff threat. Chargers or Jaguars could win a game but that's about it. 

It will really come down to the health of the Chiefs, Bills and Dolphins. Plus, homefield advantage. Hypothetically, if the Chiefs secure the 1 seed, and the Bills win the East, then the Dolphins would have to go through Buffalo in the cold/snow to reach Arrowhead in the cold. The track meet Dolphins wouldn't be as favored there as they would be if they could secure homefield throughout and make the winner of Chiefs/Bills come to Miami. 

Chiefs play Dolphins on Nov 5. Chiefs play Bills on Dec 10. Bills end the season in Miami.

My take: It's not about which one of these teams is the best, but who gets the #1 seed. (Also, entirely possible the Dolphins just become mediocre, or Chiefs or Bills for that matter.)

NFC

I don't have any ESPN analytics numbers for the NFC, but here's the Vegas odds:

49ers, Eagles and Cowboys all look elite. And look who's the only other team in the mix at less than 10 to 1...the Lions. As much as we all love the Lions, I don't think we can put them on the same level as the other three. 

So it's an eerily similar story in the NFC as the AFC. The 49ers are the best team, also in the West, and the two next best teams are in the East, fighting for the division. 

At this point, I trust the Eagles a lot more than the Cowboys. The Super Bowl Loss Hangover, which used to be my most reliable metric, now doesn't appear to be a thing. 

I think 49ers and Eagles are fighting for the 1 seed but ALSO that either team could win on the road. Cowboys flaming out in the playoffs seems likely. 

At this point, I think the biggest question is where will the 49ers-Eagles NFC Championship game get played.