Saturday, January 12, 2019

Exorcising The Demons: Chiefs To Host AFC Championship

I'm going to start with a brainteaser. The Chiefs have been to two Super Bowls. They've won one. How many AFC Championships do they have?

Two is the obvious answer. It's wrong. The answer is zero.

The two Super Bowls the Chiefs went to were SB I and SB IV. The AFL and NFL merged in 1970 which means the first AFC Championship game was played in the 1970-71 season and the winner would play in Super Bowl V.

Which is a long way of getting to the point: In 8 days, two teams will play the 49th AFC Championship game.

It is the second appearance by the Kansas City Chiefs.
It is the first at home, Arrowhead Stadium.

The only other time the Chiefs were in this game was in the 1993-94 playoffs. Joe Montana was the Chiefs QB. (Montana was 37 and got a concussion in the game. He would only play one more season before retiring.) And notably for me, I was a 10-year-old who had just moved away from KC to Peoria. I had been to two Chiefs games in person but didn't have anyone in my life to guide me through what it means to be a fan. When I lived in Peoria, I didn't feel like I had a team. So this is the first AFC Championship game that I get to watch as a Chiefs fan.

By the way, if you're scoring at home, 49 AFC title games means a total of 98 appearances. With 16 teams in the league, each team should expect a little over 6 appearances.

The Ravens have 4 but they were only established in 1995. The Jaguars have 3 since 1993.
The Bills have 5 and the Dolphins and Colts each have 7.
The Broncos, Raiders, Patriots and Steelers are all in double digits.

Then you have the dregs. The Chargers and Jets each have 4. The Browns have 3. The Bengals have 2.

In 8 days, the Chiefs will have 2.

Even Seattle has 1 and they left the AFC in 2002. The Texans have 0 but they started in 2002.

And what's crazy, is that the Chiefs have an all-time winning record. They have more regular season wins than the Raiders. The Chiefs have 40 more wins than losses and the Jets have 90 more losses than wins. The Chiefs should have been to this game more often. But they haven't.

• • •

They reason they haven't is a playoff history full of games that have their own name and kickers that can not be named. Three years ago, the Chiefs beat the Texans to win their first playoff game since that aforementioned 93-94 season. They got the playoff win monkey off their back. But another one remained: playoff games at home.

For all the talk of how Arrowhead is the loudest stadium in the NFL and how tough it is it to play there, you wouldn't know it looking at the playoff history.

0-6 at home from 95 to 2017. Colts. Broncos. Colts. Ravens. Steelers. Titans.

Six times in a row a team came to the feared Arrowhead and went on to play another playoff game. A history full of losing by missing kicks, losing as the #1 seed, losing without punting, losing while only allowing field goals, losing by giving up a huge comeback. Losing, losing, losing. Losing in every which way possible. Chiefs fans are scared of playoff games at Arrowhead and with good reason.

• • •

When Chiefs fans found out the Colts were coming to town, every single one was nervous. How could you not be?

All week experts were picking Indy. Not giving the Chiefs any respect as a #1 seed. And I didn't blame them.

Indy had been the #1 team by some metrics over the previous 11 weeks. They had come in hot, winning 10 of 11. Their offensive line was perfectly situated to negate the Chiefs defensive strength, the pass rush. The Chiefs defense gave up a historic amount of first downs. The Colts offense gained 26 first downs over the Texans. This was Mahomes first playoff game. Those usually end in losses.

I went back and forth in my mind. I was worried that the Chiefs D would never get a stop. That the Colts could just keep picking up first downs, drive down the field and eat up clock. And then came the weather reports. The biggest snowstorm in 5 years in KC.

This Mahomes offense has yet to play in a dome, but on paper it seems like this fast passing offense is suited better for a dome than anyone. What if it turns into a slippery game where teams need to run the ball? What if the Colts pound the ball like they did against the Texans? Has Mahomes ever in seen snow, let alone play in it? And then came the injury reports. No Ware. No Berry.

When this game kicked off, there was nothing that could surprise me. I was prepared to win or lose big, to come back or blow a lead, to have the game come down to the final play.

• • •

The first series for each team set the tone.

Dee Ford tackles Mack for a loss on the game's first play. Colts go 3 and out.

Mahomes goes 3 for 3 to Hill, Kelce, Watkins. Williams runs in the TD. 90 yards in 5 plays.

Another Colts 3 and out, followed by a Chiefs 70-yard TD drive.

Both scoring drives included Mahomes getting the Colts to jump offsides with a hard count. The second one included a 4th down conversion. And the Chiefs kicker made both kicks.

It's the first quarter and it's 14-0 Chiefs. Will this be a repeat of the 2013 or 2018 Chiefs collapse special?

• • •

When I was growing up, the two biggest curses in sports were the Red Sox and Cubs not able to win the World Series. They had histories full of folklore and painful playoff moments. Fans believed they were real because they seemed real.

Curses aren't real. But to overcome something that people believe is real, it takes special circumstances. The Red Sox needed to comeback from 0-3 to the Yankees and a Dave Roberts steal. The Cubs needed to go to extra innings after a rain delay in Game 7.

So as a Chiefs fan, even though you know in all parts of your logical brain that curses aren't real, you're bracing for the moments that will test your soul. And boy did they come.

I was expecting a Butker extra point miss. I wasn't expecting Mahomes to get injured.

Soul-Testing Moment #1: With 13 minutes to go in the second quarter, the Colts knock Mahomes down and his knee gets twisted and lands on a helmet. He's limping. You think, this is it. It's only a 14-point lead. With Chad Henne in the game, the Colts will come back. This is awful. But the kid plays on.

Soul-Testing Moment #2: After the Chiefs D had forced four consecutive 3 and outs, the Chiefs punt for the first time. It's blocked. Recovered for a TD. It's now 17-7. The Colts don't have a first down but they have a touchdown. And the Chiefs are supposed to be #1 in special teams DVOA. That hasn't happened all season. But it happens in the playoffs at home.

You think the Chiefs can't blow a 10-point lead?

What does Mahomes do? Throws it to Kelce for 30 yards. Then to Watkins. Hill. Two runs by Williams. On 3rd and 6, he throws it to Kelce for 7. Pass to Williams. Pass to Watkins. Watkins run. And then Mahomes runs it in himself from the 4.



Mahomes was 6 for 6 and gained 73 yards on the 75 yard scoring drive. The drive took the first half under the two minute warning and the Colts used all their timeouts.

Luck and the Colts offense finally got going on the last drive of the first half. It sure looked like it was going to be 24-14 at the half. But they didn't have any timeouts. The Colts drove down to the Chiefs 5 but settled for a field goal attempt on 3rd down. It's a 23-yarder for Vinatieri so it's going to be 24-10 at the half.

And then it happened.

• • •

To fully appreciate this moment, you have to understand the history of Chiefs kicking in the playoffs. The long version is this article. The short version is this stat from the article:

Since 1971, both the Chiefs and their opponents have attempted 29 field goals from 0-46 yards in the playoffs.

The Chiefs had made 18 of 29. Their opponents had made all 29.

When I saw that glorious Vinatieri kick hit the upright, I knew this was the game that was going to break the cycle. At halftime, I went outside with my sons to build a snowman.




But just because I had that thought, didn't mean that the Chiefs were in the clear. There would be the Mahomes fumble and then recovery. The Hill fumble and then recovery. And then...

Soul-Testing Moment #3: With 16 minutes to go in the game, Watkins fumbles at the Chiefs 20. It's still 24-7. You think this will be how the Colts make this a game. Their offense can't do anything, but a blocked punt and a fumble recovery will make this a 10 point game.

But then that doesn't happen. Dee Ford knocks the ball away. Justin Houston recovers it. All season, whenever the Chiefs offense have made a rare miscue, the Chiefs D have stepped up their game to get it back for them. As if, we know you've been carrying the team, so we got your back.



The last test? Finishing the game.

The Colts scored to make it 24-13. Over 5 minutes left. Anything could happen. We needed one more good drive to close the deal. Mahomes didn't even have to complete a pass. Damien Williams ran the ball 8 times for 48 yards (plus a little help from a roughing the punter penalty).

And then the game-clinching play:


Mahomes is there to symbolically push the Chiefs over the line.

• • •

So there it is. The Chiefs have won a playoff game at Arrowhead for the first time since January 1994. The Chiefs beat the Colts in the playoffs for the first time ever. And instead of carrying losing streaks, they are now starting ones. Mahomes is 1-0 in the playoffs.

By the way, all that talk about the Chiefs defense? The Colts finished 0-9 on 3rd down. The Chiefs D is better at home. They get one more home game to prove it. 



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