I thought it would be interesting to approach things in 2 ways. The first is applying my predictions that I made without looking at the odds. The second is looking at the odds for efficiencies. I'll give myself an imaginary $10,000 for both and see what happens.
Before I can do either, I'll post the odds for future reference:
Method A:
To make this as simple as possible, I'm going to put $1000 on each of the division winners I picked:
Texans +185
Chiefs +265
Steelers -230
Patriots -800
Saints +155
Rams -160
Cowboys +375
Packers +140
With the remaining $2000, I'll put $1000 each on
Saints +900 to make Super Bowl
Steelers +450 to make Super Bowl
I could have put additional money on Steelers at +1000 to win the Super Bowl, but I'm out of money and I've already put enough on the Steelers.
Method B:
Now I'll be looking for teams that provide value to win their division:
$500 on 49ers +300
$500 on Cowboys +375
$500 on Chiefs +265
Then load up on heavy favorites:
$3000 on Patriots -800
$4000 on Steelers -230
Then some fliers on making the Super Bowl:
$200 on Chiefs +1400
$300 on 49ers +1100
$500 on Saints +900
$500 on Falcons +1000
Who ya got? Method A or Method B? Feel free to play along in the comments.
EDIT: The Ringer just came out with their list of surprise teams: Broncos, Bengals, Washington.
If you trust the Ringer more than Hoagie Central, you'd be betting money on Broncos +400, Bengals +750 and Washington +750. Of the three, the Broncos winning their division would surprise me the most. Washington makes sense. Smith played great last year, Eagles hangover, Giants were terrible, Cowboys could be mediocre. We'll see.
Method A
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