2019 NFL Sportsbook

Last year, I used three methods and with an imaginary 30,000 stake turned it into 43,324, including all the vig. That's a strong success. Let's see how I do this year, learning from all my takeaways last year.

I had written this before Luck retired. But since it hadn't posted, I will consider that the bets not made. I will add edits.

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Let's start with AFC Divisional Odds, as of this writing (August 21, 2019)

I feel about the same on the Pats and Chiefs and much better odds on the Chiefs. First bet is easy.

2000 on Chiefs to win division at -150

My division winner in the North is a significant underdog, so I'll take that:

1000 on Ravens to win division at +300

I'm going to hedge in the AFC South:

500 on Colts -110 and 300 on Texans +285. As long as either of them win, I'll come out ahead.

With that extra 200, I'll take a flier on the Bills at +950.

That's 4000 well spent in the AFC division races.


Post-Luck-Retirement Update: 

Texans went from +285 to +130 because of one retirement not on their team. So that 800 I had split between Colts and Texans is void and I'm now going to put it all on... the Colts at +500. I might be crazy but I think that's great value.

Well, I unknowingly picked all the Vegas favorites. While that bodes well for my analysis it doesn't lend to great value on the board here.

The one I trust the most is the Eagles (because I don't trust the rest of their division) so let's do

1000 on Eagles -110

The North is to close to call and there's poor value for betting on Saints/Rams. So I'll stay away from the rest for now.

The NFC is kind of a crapshoot. Let's jump back to the AFC for odds to just get into the Super Bowl.

This probably isn't what Vegas sharps would do, but I trust the Pats and the Chiefs and I don't trust the Browns at all. So...

1500 on Patriots at +325 to make Super Bowl
1500 on Chiefs at +350 to make Super Bowl

I did this last year when their odds were +210 and +230 and it worked out incredibly well. I didn't even have to sweat the AFC title game.

I just did the math. If both teams were +325, this becomes a 3000 bet at -160. So it's not crazy good value...but I'd rather have money on either Pats or Chiefs make the Super Bowl at -160 than Rams or Saints win the division at -180.

So I've spent 8000 so far.

Let's spend the rest on homer picks.

1000 on Mahomes to go over 4650 passing yards at -110
800 on Chiefs over 10.5 wins -110
and what the hell, 200 on Chiefs to win the frigging Super Bowl at +800