Birthday Wishes Do Come True

 

The Chiefs never led in the first half. The didn't have the lead with the ball until the final kneel down. 

The whole game, I was like "some birthday game, this sucks." But by the end, it was clear this was the best Chiefs game on my birthday ever. 

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ESPN's win probability calculate gave the Raiders a 73.7% chance to win before the Chiefs final drive. 

In this house, I was 80-90% sure Mahomes was going to go down the field and get a touchdown. And 20% worried he would score too quickly. 

Let's zoom in on that game-winning drive. Started at the KC 25 with 1:43 to go and 1 timeout. 

7 pass plays. Mahomes went 6/7. The only 3rd down they had was a 3rd and 1. Drove down the field and scored with 28 seconds left. Made it look easy. 

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This game was marked by long, sustained drives that ate clock. 

In most games, both teams get around 10-11 possessions. Last night, when the Raiders started their last drive with 28 seconds left...that was their 8th possession of the night!

Results of the first seven Raider possessions: four touchdowns, one field goal, two punts. 

Results of the first seven Chief possessions: four touchdowns, one interception, two punts. 

Neither defense performed well. But look at that above again...how did the Chiefs win?

The Raiders 7th possession scored with 1:43 to go and left KC with a timeout. This is where time management matters. 

If you're the Raiders here, to win the game, you have to do two things. 

1) Score a touchdown

2) Leave the Chiefs with under 30 seconds and no timeouts. 

This is not an either or thing. You have to do both. 

The Raiders had 1st and 10 from the KC 23 with 2:24. They're down 4 and KC has 2 timeouts. 

At this point, you have to keep the clock running. Run, screen pass, whatever. 

Two incomplete passes. 

Bottom line, they had lots of chances to run the clock down, or at least make KC burn all their timeouts. They didn't and Mahomes burned them in the end. 

So now Chiefs are 1-0 in Las Vegas. 

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Mahomes is 5-1 vs the Raiders. 

Andy Reid's Chiefs are 13-3 vs the Raiders. 

Let's do the rest of the division. 

Mahomes is 4-1 vs the Chargers. 

Andy Reid's Chiefs are 12-3 vs the Chargers.

Mahomes is 5-0 vs the Broncos. 

Andy Reid's Chiefs are 10-5 vs the Broncos.

So at this point, Mahomes is 14-2 in the AFC West. 

Since 2016, Chiefs are 25-3 in the division. That's insane. 

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Chiefs are now 9-1. Last year, when they won the Super Bowl, they were 6-4 at this point. 

Steelers are 10-0. All we need is for the Ravens to beat the Steelers and then KC will be sitting in the #1 seed. Lots of good football coming up.