Scoring in Soccer

The very first live post on this site was a bunch of stupid suggestions under the title, How to fix soccer. I rightfully got a scolding from pre-twitter soccer fans. I'll hopefully do better with this post.

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Every World Cup since 1962 has averaged between 2 and 3 goals per match. (The 2010 and 2014 World Cups averaged a combined 2.47 goals per match. That's 1.23 per team per match.)

In 1958, 3.6 goals per match.
In 1954, 5.38 goals per match.
From 1934 to 1950, every World cup averaged between 4 and 5 goals per match.

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I'm not saying that the game is broken or needs fixing. But it's worth noting that scoring is half of what it's used to be. Goals are exciting and important. In doing research for this, I found this from a Slate article:

I agree that fans want close games, of course, but I also think fans like scoring. Not too much, mind you. For example, Portugal just played Spain to a 3-3 draw and I think most people found it very exciting. 12-9 would have been too much, but 3-3 is great. 5-4 is fun every now and again. 

In the NHL this year, teams averaged 2.97 goals per game. That's per team, so we're talking 6 goals per game. Some games you get 1-0 nailbiters, some are 7-6 barnburners and some are 5-0 blowouts. But six goals a game works nicely. The arena explodes every time there is a goal. At 6 per game, the rarity does not diminish the excitement. (A good example is a NBA basket. There are 40 made per team per game. So you're not exploding out of your seat or crying if your opponent makes a shot. Likewise in tennis.) 

In the NFL, teams average about 2.5 TDs per game. Same story as hockey. Every TD matters a lot. Games are fun when there are 4 and 5 touchdowns per team, and still fun for the rare 14-7 game too. 

So for soccer teams to be averaging 1.3 goals per game...it's a little weak. Especially when you throw in that there are straight draws after 90 minutes. The possibility of a 0-0 draw is thoroughly present. 

I think the numbers show that increasing from 2.5 goals to around 5 goals per game would be healthy for the game. And it would actually keep it in line with its historical roots. 

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And one more thing...the Penalty. 

I tried to find out how many goals are typically scored via penalty. Hard to find, but I found a video showing "all 12 penalty goals from world cup 2014". So if you take out the 12 goals scored via penalty, the average for 2014 drops from 2.67 to 2.48 per match. Goals via penalty account for 7% of all goals at the last World Cup. 

Here's the thing. Goals scored in the run of play are beautiful and exciting and either well-earned or a huge mistake from the opponent. Goals scored via penalty are not beautiful, not that exciting because 76% are converted and often come down to a judgement call—where well-earned or mistakes may not even come into it. 

It also often just doesn't make sense. A little push or trip that five feet away would be given a difficult contested shot from 25 yards is now given a gimmie uncontested shot from 12 yards. Combined with the overall low-scoring nature of the current game, one judgement call can decide the whole game. 

So if I was in charge, which I'm not, I would try to increase scoring in the run of play and decrease the impact of goals via penalty. 

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Let's start with the penalty. In the NFL, there used to be two kinds of face mask penalty. A severe penalty for intentionally grabbing the face mask and a milder penalty for accidentally grabbing the face mask. It worked pretty well. Let's bring that idea to soccer. Instead of the current 12-yard spot, let's have 2 spots. One from 10-yards for obvious, blatant penalties (intentional handballs, reckless slide tackles) and one from 16-yards for more inadvertent fouls (unintentional handballs, pushes and trips that were attempts on the ball but missed). 

The exact distances would warrant testing but the goal of this is simple. The odds of converting a penalty should be commensurate with the odds of scoring on the play when the infraction occurred. If a defender wipes out a player on a breakaway, the offense should be given a kick with 90% conversion rate. If the defender was going for the ball in a normal offensive set, the offense should be given a kick with a 50% conversion rate. 

This 16-yard spot would become more exciting as goalies would be able to wait longer before diving. It's a more challenging kick and would have more inherent drama on each kick. 

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As for increasing scoring in the run of play...there are lots of possible solutions. The obvious is to increase the size of the goal, even by just a foot on each side. It's currently 24 feet. A 25 or 26 foot goal might be perfect. 

The game is good and doesn't need radical changes. But any game warrants looking at ways to make it better.