Monday, October 15, 2018

This is what Mahomes losing feels like

At halftime, doubt creeped in. The Chiefs had needed a comeback in Denver. Mahomes threw two picks vs the Jaguars. And now Mahomes had thrown two picks in the first half in New England. Maybe teams had figured him out. Maybe Belichick is just on another level and the Chiefs just can't compete with them.

And then the Chiefs scored 31 points in the second half. Including a 67 yard pass to Hunt and a 75 yard pass to Hill. 

If the Chiefs had gotten blown out 41 to 9, I'd feel a lot differently. Instead, I think this is the game that defines the season. And I'm excited. 

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Here's the playoff standings after 6 games:


Last night showed that the Chiefs are for real. They are not a 5-0 fraud. They're going to be competing for the playoff bye and hopefully home field advantage. And they made it through an insanely tough schedule with the best record in the AFC. Yes, the Patriots now hold the tiebreaker. So the Chiefs have to stay 1 game better if they want to avoid going to Foxborough in January. In other words, to get the #1 seed the Chiefs have to match the Patriots over the next 10 weeks. Just like they matched them to a 40-40 game with 3 minutes left. 

This I think should give the Chiefs a purpose and direction. (While I would have loved the 6-0 vs 3-3 outcome, that would have perhaps given a sense of complacency. That is not the case now.) The Chiefs should be encouraged and motivated. Every game counts. 

Chiefs Remaining Schedule
Games vs teams with winning records: 4
Games vs teams with losing records: 5
Games vs teams with tied record: 1

Patriots Remaining Schedule
Games vs teams with winning records: 4
Games vs teams with losing records: 2
Games vs teams with tied records: 4

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Assuming there is a rematch with the Patriots (in likely the AFC Championship) here's what needs to happen. The Chiefs defense needs to allow less than 39 points. Or the Chiefs offense needs to score more than 44 points. Both are possible. 

Mahomes left points on the board. On their first two field goal drives, he had guys open for touchdowns. Plus the two picks. Those are plays in the second half he makes. First time going against Belichick, first time in New England, first time on Sunday Night Football...and his first half he missed a few throws. By the second half, he was making plays. 

This Chiefs defense was injured. 4 guys on defense didn't suit up: Berry, Houston, Murray, Kpass. In the playoffs, we'll need a healthy Berry and Houston, and that would change a ton. 

Even so, a 3-point loss on the road to the best franchise of the last 20 years isn't a bad loss. There's a lot to be motivated by. 

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Some other positives. Now the Rams are the last undefeated team. As I wrote earlier this week, I think that hurts a team. You start getting a big head, there's this pressure that mounts each week, you start getting questions about resting your starters or going for 16-0, comparisons to past teams...it's a distraction.

I also feel like it's easier for a team to get motivated in the playoffs when they've been beaten by that opponent in the regular season. (Going against a Belichick team that is seeking revenge is a scary thought.)

Next week, the Patriots have to go on the road to face Khalil Mack and the Bears. I've got a feeling Andy Reid will be calling his buddy Nagy in Chicago with tips on how to beat the Patriots. 

And the Chiefs get a second try on Sunday Night Football vs the Bengals. This time it's at Arrowhead. The Bengals are 0-7 on SNF. The Chiefs are 6-0 against the spread this year and they're favored by 6 points. I love, love the Chiefs this week. Getting a second chance on SNF at home is perfect.

If the Patriots (4-2) finish 13-3, that would require the Chiefs to finish 14-2. There's no margin for error. But Mahomes has proven he's up for the challenge. 

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